DapperDan Football Picks....2014-' season

[Smutbucket]

What up fellllas! freaking pumped! its football season, doing it big here this year in this thread, Ive got some money set aside for this season to increase my unit size to a lot more than past seasons, im very confident in my picks, ive only been posting online for last 2 seasons and have always had a profit, last 2 years in college football Im up over 30 units....ncaaf is my specialty....in nfl I was +7 units in '12, and in '13 I was down a couple units, been busy with a lot of work but this weekend my schedule finally clears up and I will be posting picks/discussion regularly and welcome all insight.....

gonna try to track my picks a little more in depth this season, including the infamous yet often ignored unit per bet stat, you might find cappers in these forums up 75-100 units but these are of course inflated.....in order to relate these cappers to cappers like me who bet 1 units per game, you need to divide their total units up by their total units per bet, so for example you have someone up 60 units but theyre betting on average 3 units per game, in reality, they are only up 20 units, DO NOT BE DECIEVED BY these assholes, 90% of my bets are 1-1.2 units with an occasional 2 unit bet and maybe one to two 3 unit bets a season, their will be no chase betting in this thread....only straight forwards stats and record keeping....no bs


I will be posting my picks for Thursday night shortly....and will also post my record keeping from the last 2 seasons.....


good luck to all!

[Smutbucket]

Betting Review:

NCAAF 2012-13
Week 1 : 8-2 +5.25 units
Week 2 : 1-1-1 -.1 units
Week 3 : 1-4-1 -4.6 units
Week 4 : 4-1 +4.3 units
Week 5 : 4-2-1 +1.8 units
Week 6 : 7-3 +4.85 units
Week 7 : 5-7-1 +.95 units
Week 8 : 8-2 +7.3 unit
Week 9 : 5-6-1 -3.1 units
week 10: 6-4 + .3 units
week 11: 5-9 -3.9 units
week 12: 4-3 -1.45 units
week 13: 9-2 +9.7 units
NCAAF week 14 championship week: 3-4 -3.25 units
NCAAF Bowls : 10-8-2 +4.65 units

[B]
NCAAF Total '12 Season
80-58-7
(58%)
+22.7 units

2013 - 2014 NCAAF Season Betting Review:

Week 1 : 7-5 + 4 units
Week 2 : 6-3 + 3.85 units
Week 3 : 6-4 + 1.55 units
Week 4 : 3-5 - 1.3 units
Week 5 : 7-3 + 3.2 units
Week 6 : 7-7 +.35 units
Week 7 : 5-11 -5.45 units
Week 8 : 6-9 -2.5 units
Week 9 : 7-6 + 2.8 units
Week 10: 6-7 -.15 units
Week 11: 6-6 +.35 units
Week 12: 4-8 -2.7 units
Week 13: 7-4 +1.45 units
Week 14: 5-9 -4.58 units
Week 15: 3-3 +2.55 units
Bowls : 11-7 +8.05 units

Ncaaf 2013-14 Total Results: 96-97 + 11.47 units

....

[Smutbucket]

heres link to threads from last 2 years:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-football-betting/2548142-football-2013-14-season-smut-p5.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-football-betting/1871648-sb-friends-thread-p14.html

[Smutbucket]

here we go:

Ncaaf Week 1:
Texas A&M +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Boise State Team Total Under 21.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Vanderbilt Team Total Under 31.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
6.5 pt 2 Team Teaser. (-120) Washington State -1.5 and Miami +10. Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

will add more Friday.....should have a little bit of time then to discuss games/talk a bout picks........LETS WIN FELLAS

[tennesseety]

Wow, I like that Vandy under. Had not seen that one yet.

[Smutbucket]

here we go:

Ncaaf Week 1:
Texas A&M +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Boise State Team Total Under 21.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Vanderbilt Team Total Under 31.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
6.5 pt 2 Team Teaser. (-120) Washington State -1.5 and Miami +10. Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

3-1 +1.8 units

[SlickRick1382]

Great start bud !!!! I tailed and had the great fortune of putting both TT as Over's instead of Under's in the rush ....

C'est la vie !!!

[Smutbucket]

Thanks slick rick...

This what I got so far.....a few more might be on the way....:

NCAAF Week 1 :
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Auburn -13 and Ohio State -9 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Navy Team Total Under 20 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
UCLA Team Total Under 37 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma -35 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma State +18.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Cal/Northwestern Over 62 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Florida Atlantic Team Total Over 14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Georgia -1.5 and Wisconsin +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[2daBank]

gl this season bro.

[Smutbucket]

ya bankman, glad to see a lot of the regulars back, 'tis the season.....looking forward to reading your threads

[Smutbucket]

Thanks slick rick...

This what I got so far.....a few more might be on the way....:

NCAAF Week 1 :
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Auburn -13 and Ohio State -9 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Navy Team Total Under 20 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
UCLA Team Total Under 37 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma -35 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma State +18.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Cal/Northwestern Over 62 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Florida Atlantic Team Total Over 14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Georgia -1.5 and Wisconsin +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Yesterday Results: 5-3 +2.2 units

Week 1 Results: 8-4 +4 units

[Smutbucket]

Last play for week 1 .....seems a little bit of joke to me the lack of respect for this Miami offense....

Adding:
Miami Team Total Over 24.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 1 Results : 8-5 +2.8 units


Locking in a couple plays early that I love.....2 two unit bets to start off the week, first NFL play and msu....

NCAAF Week 2:
Michigan State +12 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units


NFL Week 1:
Packers +6 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

[crackerjack]

Good luck this week

[Smutbucket]

Thanks CrackerJack!

Adding a NFL teaser for the weekend, really like this packers number, especially in a teaser....

NFL Week 1 :
Packers +6 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Packers +11.5 and Panthers +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

starting right tackle goes out early

backup right tackle gives up two huge turnovers that cost the game and any chance of a cover.....one of these days im gonna total up how many units ive lost by being a homer and punch myself in the face

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 2 Complete Card:

Mich/ND Over 57 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Michigan State +12 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Michigan State ML (+320) Risking .5 units to win 1.6 units
Washington State -4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa Team Total Under 35 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Northwestern Team Total Under 33 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
USC Team Total Under 24.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Virgina Tech +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. South Carolina -11 and Georgia Tech -4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

(may add some sat. morning)

[Smutbucket]

actually made a little money because I waited on south carolina game and line dropped and got at -9....would have been a good week if it weren't for improper weighting of bets.....

NFL Week 1
Houston -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Bills +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Dolphins +5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
SF/Dal Over 52.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Browns +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Panthers +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 2 Complete Card:

Mich/ND Over 57 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Michigan State +12 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
Michigan State ML (+320) Risking .5 units to win 1.6 units
Washington State -4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa Team Total Under 35 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Northwestern Team Total Under 33 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
USC Team Total Under 24.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Virgina Tech +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. South Carolina -11 and Georgia Tech -4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

(may add some sat. morning)

Week 2 NCAAF: 4-5 -3.1 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 1 :
Packers +6 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Packers +11.5 and Panthers +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Houston -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Bills +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Dolphins +5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
SF/Dal Over 52.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Browns +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Panthers +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units

NFL Week 1 : 5-3 +.6 units

[Smutbucket]

okay fellas the real season grind begins tomorrow. I was on a lil vacation last week, and went on a serious poker heater at the palm beach kennel club, won $3200 in a week playing strictly $2-5 NL holdem....lots of fun poker in that room, anyways found it tough to pull myself away from the tables to handicap. shoulda put more time into the card as the results show in NCAAF. time to fuggin bury these books. just got back home on my usual work schedule where I have plenty of time to handicap and watch football....tmrw it begins....will post some initial leans/ thoughts on card either tmrw night or Thursday but from a glance theirs a lot of juicy soft lines but will have to look a little deeper to be sure.....

[Smutbucket]

Locking in my favorites now while I can get the numbers I like. Brief explanation comes with each. Any discussion on these games/other edges in different games that I should look into, definitely let me know.

NCAAF Week 2:
Arkansas +1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1 units
Virginia Tech -9.5 (-120) Risking 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
UCF +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Georgia -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Kentucky +18.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Arkansas should control the clock and run all over Texas Tech. Texas Tech will put together some nice drives but overall the offense will struggle against this arkansas SEC defense. Arkansas offense should be unstoppable running the ball and should win by 7+.

Virginia Tech is finnally free of the cancer that was Logan Thomas, a VERY over-rated QB by the ESPN media. Brewer, the new transfer from Texas Tech, showed a lot of potential and athleticism against ohio state last week. Virginia Tech beats ECU easily by 14+, gonna go ahead and lock in now at -9.5 while I can buy feel safe to win by 10 in worse case scenario. Look for VTECH defense to get a couple INT's too.

UCF's offense started off sluggish against PSU as they were figuring out their best QB option since Bortles went off to the NFL. Holman, although he didnt start, got his chance and proved he is a much superior QB option than DiNovo, in the 2nd half of the game and was very impressive against a tough PSU defense.

Georgia's offense should wear down and run all over this south carolina defense that is trying to fill the hole of Jadeavon Clowney, an impossible task. South Carolina is a good fade option as long as Dylan Thompson is at the helm of their offense, he has constantly struggled and for some reason is hyped by the internet forums/media as well. (bookies conspiracy ;-) )

Floridas anemic offense is reason enough to take this big line against a tough SEC team kentucky. Stoops is in his 2nd year and his defense should start to settle in and show the same improvements in defense he made in others schools. Kentuckys offense should definately improve in the 2nd year implementation of Neil Browns "Air Raid" offense, and a tight QB competition where sophmore Patrick Towles has looked respectable although against weak opponents. This week will be his true test. worth taking a look at .5 unit on the ML as well whenever it comes out.

[Smutbucket]

Adding: NCAAF Week 3:
UTSA +14 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Indiana -1 and Iowa -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa State TT Under 20 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

....will post the complete card around 11am EST time....might just add 1 play or 2 from what I already have....late additions....

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 3 Complete Card:
Arkansas +1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Virginia Tech -9.5 (-120) Risking 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
UCF +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Georgia -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Kentucky +18.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UTSA +14 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Indiana -1 and Iowa -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa State TT Under 20 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Texas A&M 1st Half -20 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma/Tenn Under 58 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units


might add a play later in day....

[Smutbucket]

Adding:
UTSA ML (+420) Risking .5 units to win 2.1 units
Kentucky ML (+650) Risking .5 units to win 3.25 units

[Smutbucket]

very rough day in college....almost saved by the +650 ml but UF squeezed out the win.....lost 1/2 g since Im doing $100 units this year....never had to dig myself out of a whole like this but ....challenge accepted! anyways, locking these in for NFL tmrw as I can get the numbers I like and feel like these numbers will move against me...will most likely add a few in the AM

NFL Week 2:
Cardinals -2 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
2 Team 6 Pt Teaser. Packers -2 and Patriots -.5 (-110) Risking 1. 1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

might make a late addition in an hr or so....this what I got locked in so far


NFL Week 2:
Cardinals -2 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
2 Team 6 Pt Teaser. Packers -2 and Patriots -.5 (-110) Risking 1. 1 units to win 1 units
Redskins -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Dolphins -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Atl/Cin Over 48.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Adding:
Patriots -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Oakland TT Under 17.5 (+105) Risking .5 units to win .53 units
KC +13 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 3 Complete Card:
Arkansas +1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Virginia Tech -9.5 (-120) Risking 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
UCF +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Georgia -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Kentucky +18.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UTSA +14 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Indiana -1 and Iowa -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa State TT Under 20 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units PUSH
Texas A&M 1st Half -20 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma/Tenn Under 58 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Adding:
UTSA ML (+420) Risking .5 units to win 2.1 units
Kentucky ML (+650) Risking .5 units to win 3.25 units

NCAAF Week 3: 3-8 -5 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 2:
Cardinals -2 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
2 Team 6 Pt Teaser. Packers -2 and Patriots -.5 (-110) Risking 1. 1 units to win 1 units
Redskins -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Dolphins -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Atl/Cin Over 48.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Adding:
Patriots -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Oakland TT Under 17.5 (+105) Risking .5 units to win .53 units
KC +13 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

NFL Week 2: 6-2 +4.33 units

[Smutbucket]

Betting Recap:

NCAAF:
Week 1: 8-5 +2.8 units
Week 2: 4-5 -3.1 units
Week 3: 3-8 -5 units

NCAAF Total YTD: 15-18 -5.3 units
NCAAF Avg Units/Bet: 1.18 units/bet
NCAF Max Bet: 2.2 units

Sides: 5-8
MLs: 0-3
Team Totals: 7-2
Game Totals: 1-2
Teasers: 2-3

Total Units Risked: 40.1 units
Total Bets: 34


NFL:
Week 1: 5-3 +.6 units
Week 2: 6-2 +4.33 units

NFL Total YTD: 11-5 +4.93 units
NFL Avg Units/Bet: 1.23 units/bet
NFL Max Bet: 2.2 units

Sides: 9-2
MLs: 0-0
Team Totals: 1-0
Game Totals: 0-2
Teasers: 1-1

Total Units Risked: 19.65 units
Total Bets: 16


THREAD TOTAL : 26-23 -.37 units
Max Bet: 2.2
Avg Units/Bet: 1.19 units


Its only just begun.....

[Smutbucket]

just looked over both cards...lots of interesting lines I have circled.....

locking this one in now before it moves actross 10 like I think it will before Thursday....
...no respect for auburn...have no clue why, if your into futures bets I would take auburn at 10-1 to win it all or 4-1 to win SEC for sure...media not talking about them at all.....


NCAAF Week 4:
Auburn -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 3:
Dallas -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
6 pt Teaser. Colts -1 and Eagles -.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Broncos +5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texans -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Chiefs +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Packers +1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1.1 units


lots of juicy lines in nfl decided to get all my work done on it earlier in week rather than Saturday night....

also lean browns/steelers and bears but waiting on hopes to get a better number on some of them....

[Smutbucket]

Had a long night last night working hard on ncaaf card....probably release them Friday evening as I am awaiting input from a few trusted advisors.....

anyways back to tonight....ill take the bait, bookies...."sharps" are on kstate obviously driving the line down so I ll add a half unit to auburn cuz Im a "square"...

NCAAF Card so far:
Auburn -9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Auburn -7 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units

[Smutbucket]

keep plugging