Crassus' Combat Sports Thread

[Crassus]

You're going to have a tough, tough night my friend.

Entirely likely, but the odds were in the underdogs favor. Gustaffson at -200 over Shogun? cmon. The only reasonable favorite is Rory and he's still too high, BJ at +240 is great odds.

[MD]

Gustafsson is a rightful favourite, I think -200 implies he wins 66% of the time, which is underselling it, if anything. I like Shogun, though, and think he can pull out a win, but I'm expecting a comfortable decision for Gustafsson.

BJ is a fantastic line, though. Rory is 70% at best, although closer to 55% I'd say.

As a fan, I'm going to have a good night if you make a lot of money.

[Crassus]

Gustafsson is a rightful favourite, I think -200 implies he wins 66% of the time, which is underselling it, if anything. I like Shogun, though, and think he can pull out a win, but I'm expecting a comfortable decision for Gustafsson.

BJ is a fantastic line, though. Rory is 70% at best, although closer to 55% I'd say.

As a fan, I'm going to have a good night if you make a lot of money.

I just haven't been really impressed with Gus, i feel like Shogun might just get the TKO or the heel hook.

[Sykes]

GL tonight man. Im with you on Shogun. Watched a cribs thing recently with him, he has a nice house but its not baller like youd think, I dont think he makes as much as some of the other top guys, has to stay current to make that $. He looks in good shape too no belly like he usually has. Prolly just jinxed it by posting.

[Crassus]

GL tonight man. Im with you on Shogun. Watched a cribs thing recently with him, he has a nice house but its not baller like youd think, I dont think he makes as much as some of the other top guys, has to stay current to make that $. He looks in good shape too no belly like he usually has. Prolly just jinxed it by posting.

It wasn't you, it was Shoguns inability to find a way of doing cardio during training camp.

You're going to have a tough, tough night my friend.

You weren't kidding. It's been a rough couple weeks, frustratingly this losing streak coincides with me making my bankroll much larger due to my early success. I don't think it's been bad enough to re-evaluate the entire system but I'm keeping a close eye on what went wrong. I think I need to do some better work on bet sizes and odds evaluation. We'll see.

Profit so far: 36.37U
1U on Nate Diaz at +125 to win 1.25U (Loss of 1U)

1U on Shogun Rua at +200 to win 2U (Loss of 1U)

2U on BJ Penn at +240 to win 4.8U (Loss of 2U)

0.5U on Yves Edwards at +170 to win 0.85U (Gain of 0.85U)

0.25U on Benson Henderson by split/majority decision at +1345 to win 3.41U (Loss of 0.25U)

0.25U on BJ Penn ITD at +400 to win 1U (Loss of 0.25U)

Revenue: 0.85U
Costs: 4.5U
Net Income: (3.65U)

Total Profit so Far: 32.72U

[Fragoel2]

Those fights weren't easy to cap either... Had your same picks, except for Bendo who saved my night. You're definitely one of the most successful handicapper in this forum (the best one in my opinion) and you're still sitting on a nice profit. Keep up the good work buddy.

[MD]

May I suggest, converting to Kelly staking? Stake 1/4 Kelly or less (I'm a nit with an overly large bankroll so I use 1/16th), and you should turn a more consistent profit, one might think.

[Crassus]

Those fights weren't easy to cap either... Had your same picks, except for Bendo who saved my night. You're definitely one of the most successful handicapper in this forum (the best one in my opinion) and you're still sitting on a nice profit. Keep up the good work buddy.

Thanks man, I appreciate it. Hopefully I'll get back on track this coming weekend, Bellator and two UFC's sound like a good place to start!
I'll try and post my leans earlier and get some opinions on them, rather than just letting people know the actual bets beforehand.

May I suggest, converting to Kelly staking? Stake 1/4 Kelly or less (I'm a nit with an overly large bankroll so I use 1/16th), and you should turn a more consistent profit, one might think.

Yeah it's been something I've been planning to do for a while, maybe the last few weeks are a wake-up call to start doing that.

[Crassus]

Total Profit so Far: 32.72U
3U Parlay of
Amir Khan at -1200
Takeshi Uchiyama at -1500
Roy Nelson at -210
To win: 2.12U

2U parlay of
Amir Khan at -1200
Takeshi Uchiyama at -1500
George Sotiropolous wins inside the distance at +256
To win: 6.23U

1.1U on Melvin Guillard at +110 to win 1.21U

1U on Steve Cunningham at +270 to win 2.7U

1U on Anthony Mundine at +280 to win 2.8U

2U on Roy Nelson at -210 to win 0.95U

1U on Shane Del Rosario at -145 to win 0.68U

1U on Joey Beltran at +260 to win 2.6U

1U on Seth Baczynski at +190 to win 1.9U

[sideloaded]

Uchiyama? Dude is a little punchy

[gabe]

You took Seth B too early

[Crassus]

Uchiyama? Dude is a little punchy

What fights make you think that?

You took Seth B too early

Think the money will come in on Pierce even more?

[gabe]

What fights make you think that?



Think the money will come in on Pierce even more?

I hope so. Would be nice to get Seth at +300

[sideloaded]

I haven't seen much of his pro career, but in the amateurs he either gassed out a lot or got hurt on his feet a lot.

[Crassus]

I hope so. Would be nice to get Seth at +300

Seems like it was a bad call to grab him at that price

I haven't seen much of his pro career, but in the amateurs he either gassed out a lot or got hurt on his feet a lot.

I'll have to take a look then...

adding:

2U on Alexander Volkov at +110 to win 2.2U
1.5U on marcin Held at +145 to win 1.9U

[Crassus]

Throwing in

1.5U on George Sotiropolous at +160 to win 2.4U

[Crassus]

1U on George Sotiropolous by submission at +440 to win 4.4U

[Crassus]

1U on George Sotiropolous by submission at +440 to win 4.4U (Loss of 1U)

3U Parlay of
Amir Khan at -1200 (win)
Takeshi Uchiyama at -1500
Roy Nelson at -210 (win)
To win: 2.12U

2U parlay of
Amir Khan at -1200
Takeshi Uchiyama at -1500
George Sotiropolous wins inside the distance at +256
To win: 6.23U (Loss of 2U)

1.1U on Melvin Guillard at +110 to win 1.21U (Push)

1U on Steve Cunningham at +270 to win 2.7U (Loss of 1U)

1U on Anthony Mundine at +280 to win 2.8U

2U on Roy Nelson at -210 to win 0.95U (Gain of 0.95U)

1U on Shane Del Rosario at -145 to win 0.68U (Loss of 1U)

1U on Joey Beltran at +260 to win 2.6U (Gain of 2.6U)

1U on Seth Baczynski at +190 to win 1.9U (Loss of 1U)

2U on Alexander Volkov at +110 to win 2.2U (Gain of 2.2U)
1.5U on marcin Held at +145 to win 1.9U (Push)

1.5U on George Sotiropolous at +160 to win 2.4U (Loss of 2.4U)

Total Revenue: 5.75U
Total Costs: (7.4U)
Net Income: (1.65U)
Profit so Far: 31.1U

[Crassus]

Profit so Far: 31.1U

2.5U on Yushin Okami at -115 to win 2.17U
0.5U on Yushin Okami by Decision at +154 to win 0.77U
1.5U on Tim Boetsch at -103 to win 1.47U
1.25U on Melvin Guillard at -125 to win 1U
1.6U on Chris Leben at -160 to win 1U
1.6U on John Moraga at -160 to win 1U
1U parlay of
Chris Leben at -160
John Moraga at -160
to win 1.64U

[Sykes]

GL man, I thought Okami when I looked at that too, everywhere I look though think Belcher has this, why are your so confident on him?

[Crassus]

GL man, I thought Okami when I looked at that too, everywhere I look though think Belcher has this, why are your so confident on him?

I just really doubt Belcher can stop Okami. He'll have some moments but Okami will get those takedowns and win the rounds. Belchers never stuffed takedowns from good wrestlers, the best he got was Jason Macdonald pulling guard. Okami will wrestle him again. People are fading Okami because of the Boetsch fight (a fight he was dominating and only lost because a guy with much heavier hands got lucky), and the Roberts fight while Okami had to go through 3 different opponents to plan for through 3/4 of his training camp. Of course he looked a little bad.

[Sykes]

Nice pick man. Again! you got me on him now I want Dos Santos for the parlay. Leben was a huge letdown though had him along with Jury/Holloway - won the hard one fuker let me down.

[Crassus]

Profit so Far: 31.1U
3U Parlay of
Amir Khan at -1200 (win)
Takeshi Uchiyama at -1500 (win)
Roy Nelson at -210 (win)
To win: 2.12U (gain of 2.12U)
2.5U on Yushin Okami at -115 to win 2.17U (gain of 2.17U)
0.5U on Yushin Okami by Decision at +154 to win 0.77U (Gain of 0.77U)
1.5U on Tim Boetsch at -103 to win 1.47U (Loss of 1.5U)
1.25U on Melvin Guillard at -125 to win 1U (Loss of 1.25U)
1.6U on Chris Leben at -160 to win 1U (Loss of 1.6U)
1.6U on John Moraga at -160 to win 1U (Gain of 1U)
1U parlay of
Chris Leben at -160
John Moraga at -160
to win 1.64U (loss of 1U)

Total Revenue: 6.06U
Total Costs: 5.35U
Net Income: 0.71U

Profit so Far: 31.81U

[Crassus]

Nice pick man. Again! you got me on him now I want Dos Santos for the parlay. Leben was a huge letdown though had him along with Jury/Holloway - won the hard one fuker let me down.

Thanks man, though if I hadnt' gotten the parlay from before it would have been a loss of like 5U. Looking forward to the next couple cards though, they should be good.

[MD]

Crassus, before you get all high and mighty about your results like an asshole again, I'm going to go on record as saying that you're just an average losing player on a winning streak. You can't even begin to compare to a true MMA handicapper, like Sanford. There's a reason that the guy is considered the resident combat sports expert, and that's due to his consistent results and unbelievably high level of handicapping ability. Don't let this hot streak go to your head. You'll never be as good as he is.

[Crassus]

Profit so Far: 31.81U

3U on Roger Gracie at -300 to win 1U

2U parlay of
Nate Marquardt at -310
Daniel Cormier at -1775
Josh Barnett at -1450
Jacare Souza at -385
Gegard Mousasi at -460
to win 2.6U
1U parlay of
Roger Gracie at -300
Tim Kennedy at -450
to win 0.63U

lolstupid parlays. Complete degenerate action here.

[MD]

Roger is the worst favourite on the card, I think. Never bet on a Gracie. I much prefer Marquardt.

The parlays are fine, and will probably hit. I played the first parlay yesterday, also.

[Crassus]

Roger is the worst favourite on the card, I think. Never bet on a Gracie. I much prefer Marquardt.

The parlays are fine, and will probably hit. I played the first parlay yesterday, also.

Rogers not your average Gracie. He's the man.

[v1y]

sure as shit didnt look like the man in rd1, but he pulled it out.

[Sykes]

Cras can you hit me up sometime pls. Im not allowed to pm for one fuking message when I started here! but if you were to search 'mma betting odds' and see a site with a similar name use the contact thing say hey! That would be cool.

[Crassus]

sure as shit didnt look like the man in rd1, but he pulled it out.

He got a little carried away with the stand-up is all.

Cras can you hit me up sometime pls. Im not allowed to pm for one fuking message when I started here! but if you were to search 'mma betting odds' and see a site with a similar name use the contact thing say hey! That would be cool.

Email me brotha-man, modernwarcraft@gmail.com

[Educ8d Degener8]

...

Email me brotha-man, modernwarcraft@gmail.com

I just signed you up for a bunch of mailing lists.

[Crassus]

I just signed you up for a bunch of mailing lists.

Awwww yeeeaahhh

[Sykes]

I just signed you up for a bunch of mailing lists.

That! wouldn't leave my mail on a forum. Asking for trouble man.

[Crassus]

That! wouldn't leave my mail on a forum. Asking for trouble man.

It's purely my gambling/internet alter ego mail, not a big deal if anyone gets it. Edited it now regardless, but like I said, email me there.