Crassus' Combat Sports Thread

[Crassus]

Great hits, man. Yours are the picks I like the consider the most before events.

How do you study your picks before you make them? Do you just go back and watch fight tape, or is there anything in particular you like to look at/anyone elses picks you like to follow?

Thanks man! That Klitschko call was bad though. Woulda been up way more if I'd just avoided that one haha.

I make the picks based around my near-constant reading of MMA and Boxing sites, reading basically every post on this and other mma gambling boards, watching tape and discussing the matches with my peers. I'd follow anyone here's logic, and the amount of leeway I give them on that logic depends on their previous records/results.

[Crassus]

Total Profit so far: 48.35U

2U on Marcin Held at +125 to win 2.5U

2U on Ricardo Tirloni at +135 to win 2.7U

6U on Marlon Sandro at -1200 to win 0.5U

[kripsak]

Also went with Tirloni & Held, I wish I could of taken them at better odd's, but my SB are slow to put up the lines.

[Crassus]

Also went with Tirloni & Held, I wish I could of taken them at better odd's, but my SB are slow to put up the lines.

Hope you got em at + odds at the very least. Very annoyed with the Tirloni D but it happens in these sports.

Total Profit so far: 48.35U

2U on Marcin Held at +125 to win 2.5U (Gain of 2.5U)

2U on Ricardo Tirloni at +135 to win 2.7U (Loss of 2U)

6U on Marlon Sandro at -1200 to win 0.5U (Gain of 0.5U)

Total Revenue: 3.0U
Total Costs: 2U
Net Income: 1U
Total Profit so Far: 49.35U

plays for UFC coming in a second!

[Crassus]

Total profit so far: 49.35U

2.6U on Francis Carmont at -260 to win 1U

1U on Allesio Sakara at +240 to win 2.4U

2U on Chad Griggs at +125 to win 2.5U

1U on John Makdessi at +150 to win 1.5U

1U on Azamat Gashimov at +195 to win 1.95U

3U parlay of

George St. Pierre at -325
Rafael Dos Anjos at -200
Mark Hominick at -300

to win 4.85U


Good luck guys!

[feijao]

why are you on griggs?

[Crassus]

Griggs has solid enough takedowns to get him to the ground and work that G&P and get the TKO in my opinion.

[DirtyX]

Dos Anjos at -150 is the bet. I bet the line on him straight up. Also Took Kampmann straight at +115 and Condit at +270 staight. GL.

[Crassus]

Dos Anjos at -150 is the bet.

Where you getting those odds?

[DirtyX]

Ticket#:79045316 Nov 17 09:15 PM

INTERNET / -1

Nov 17 03:40 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [24234] R DOS ANJOS -150 (M BOCEK vrs R DOS ANJOS)

150 / 100

It's a local book. Can't parlay or do any prop betting for MMA though.

[feijao]

i disagree on griggs.

anyway, why the love for dos anjos? i like bocek at the current odds, +175 ain't too bad

[MMAbetMASTA]

i disagree on griggs.

anyway, why the love for dos anjos? i like bocek at the current odds, +175 ain't too bad

at current odds I gotta agree there is now some value on bocek, but at -150ish I think the line is solid and value is on RDA, but now he's -200 and that's iffy... IMO bocek has an offensive wrestling advantage and that's it, striking wise rda has evolved greatly the last few years and will decimate bocek on the feet. RDA has also fought a couple better dudes with better mma wrestling than bocek imo (although I'll admit bocek's wrestling is pretty damn good tho), he stuffed tibau multiple times and tibau has the highest takedown % in the entire zuffa roster. I just think bocek's only way to win is to ground out 3 rounds in top control, which is easier said than done against a guy like rda who can attack and sweep off his back when in a bad spot. But yea there is value in bocek at this point and can't knock anyone who likes that price. GL!

[Crassus]

Dirty, that's some nice odds.

i disagree on griggs.

anyway, why the love for dos anjos? i like bocek at the current odds, +175 ain't too bad

How do you see the fight going?

As for Dos Anjos, he's faced the tougher competition more impressively in my opinion.

[DirtyX]

i disagree on griggs.

anyway, why the love for dos anjos? i like bocek at the current odds, +175 ain't too bad

I guess I am really sold on him after his last fight. Great display of striking, and as my boy Betmasta said, he can stuff the takedowns and keep it standing, or at least that is what I am banking on. At the current odds, I also can't blame anyone who sees value in Bocek. I wouldn't bet RDA at -200

[Sykes]

GL tonight man. Im on Griggs too, seen him a few times in Strikeforce he was decent and from what ive seen of Diabate he's never impressed, alot of guys get him to train for Silva/Jones never looked impressive to me though.

I like Kampmann too, one of my favorite fighters slow slow starter though.

[feijao]

Diabate should be able to use his huge height and reach advantage and far far better technique perfectly to pick Griggs apart on the feet. Diabate does have weak TDD and isn't good on the ground, but Griggs's wrestling and grappling aren't good either. There is a difference between having Perosh, a 3rd degree blackbelt with loads of BJJ accomplishments or Chad Griggs, firefighter, on top of you. Yes, he was able to pound Overeem's lazy brother to a submission, but that had more to do with Overeem quitting as soon as the fight went to the ground than with Griggs GNP-skills. Valentijn is pretty happy as long as he gets his cheque. I see Griggs as a pure brawler (like in his fight against Villante), which obviously will cost him against Diabate. Even if he fights a smart fight and goes for takedowns, I'm not so sure he will be succesfull. Diabate is the better grappler and yes, he has improved his TDD over the years. I'm fairly certain Griggs won't use amazing setups for his takedowns but rather go for them a little desperately, as he has alot of distance to cover. Come on, Griggs only real wins are vs Overeem who is 30-27 and has been losing to absolute flukes and Villante whos biggest fight was a loss to Larkin and was able to tag Griggs.

[Crassus]

GL tonight man. Im on Griggs too, seen him a few times in Strikeforce he was decent and from what ive seen of Diabate he's never impressed, alot of guys get him to train for Silva/Jones never looked impressive to me though.

I like Kampmann too, one of my favorite fighters slow slow starter though.

The Kampmann/Hendricks fight is too close to call for me. I'd prefer to just leave it alone and enjoy the fight haha.

[Sykes]

The Kampmann/Hendricks fight is too close to call for me. I'd prefer to just leave it alone and enjoy the fight haha.

Got €25 @5.0 from paddies for FOTN too : ) - hope its a good'in

[Crassus]

Diabate should be able to use his huge height and reach advantage and far far better technique perfectly to pick Griggs apart on the feet. Diabate does have weak TDD and isn't good on the ground, but Griggs's wrestling and grappling aren't good either. There is a difference between having Perosh, a 3rd degree blackbelt with loads of BJJ accomplishments or Chad Griggs, firefighter, on top of you. Yes, he was able to pound Overeem's lazy brother to a submission, but that had more to do with Overeem quitting as soon as the fight went to the ground than with Griggs GNP-skills. Valentijn is pretty happy as long as he gets his cheque. I see Griggs as a pure brawler (like in his fight against Villante), which obviously will cost him against Diabate. Even if he fights a smart fight and goes for takedowns, I'm not so sure he will be succesfull. Diabate is the better grappler and yes, he has improved his TDD over the years. I'm fairly certain Griggs won't use amazing setups for his takedowns but rather go for them a little desperately, as he has alot of distance to cover. Come on, Griggs only real wins are vs Overeem who is 30-27 and has been losing to absolute flukes and Villante whos biggest fight was a loss to Larkin and was able to tag Griggs.

I think that's definitely a possibility. especially with someone like Griggs whose skills are gonna be an unknown at LHW. However, I see Griggs at + odds as a steal.

Getting tagged by Villante is nothing to be ashamed of, the guy can hit.

[Sykes]

That was quick, fuker!

[feijao]

not exactly how i though it would go down, but quite the dominant performance by diabetes obviously

[Crassus]

Yeah was way off on the Griggs fight. Damn, Griggs didn't work on his ground game at allll

[Crassus]

Total profit so far: 49.35U

2.6U on Francis Carmont at -260 to win 1U (Gain of 1U)

1U on Allesio Sakara at +240 to win 2.4U (Loss of 1U)

2U on Chad Griggs at +125 to win 2.5U (Loss of 2U)

1U on John Makdessi at +150 to win 1.5U (Gain of 1.5U)

1U on Azamat Gashimov at +195 to win 1.95U (loss of 1U)

3U parlay of

George St. Pierre at -325
Rafael Dos Anjos at -200
Mark Hominick at -300

to win 4.85U (Loss of 3U)

got 4U on berto tonight! (Loss of 4U)

Total Revenue: 2.5U
Total Costs: 11U
Net Income: (8.5U)

Total Profit so Far: 40.85U

[Crassus]

Total Profit so Far: 40.85U

3U on Lyman Good at -105 to win 2.86U

4U parlay of

David Rickels at -300
Alexander Sarnavskiy at -540

to win 2.32U

0.5U on Kala Hose at +100 to win 0.5U

3U parlay of

David Price vs Matt Skelton under 7.5 rounds at -350
Tyson Fury at -700
Miguel Cotto at -220

to win 3.45U

[MD]

Gonna be a big weekend for you, one way or another, by the look of it.

Hope your plays go well. I'd be surprised if you finish down, as most of your picks should win, although I'm on the other side in the Cotto fight (taking Trout by decision out of value, although Cotto is the rightful, if overvalued, favourite).

The Rickels/Sarnavskiy parlay is very solid, and is one I played myself, also.

[Crassus]

Gonna be a big weekend for you, one way or another, by the look of it.

Hope your plays go well. I'd be surprised if you finish down, as most of your picks should win, although I'm on the other side in the Cotto fight (taking Trout by decision out of value, although Cotto is the rightful, if overvalued, favourite).

The Rickels/Sarnavskiy parlay is very solid, and is one I played myself, also.

Yeah, saw a lot of promising plays lol. Gonna be a very large weekend next weekend as well.

Trout by D is an excellent bet (odds wise, I just think Cotto straight up is a little better), but I think Cotto at -220 is good for me, I'd bet him to -250. Trouts gonna give a good showing but I think an easy decision for Cotto.

[flickavic]

Im with you on all of your Bellator plays as well as Cotto. Its nice to see someone else on him other than myself. The only thing that scares me is his retirement talk. I never like betting on a fighter who says the end is near. I still think he takes this fight 8 rounds to 4.I also went small on Velez/Sanchez under 9.5 +200. I know Sanchez has not been ko'd but I think Velez can do it and +200 is nice.I don't think Sanchez has the tools to stop Velez from doing whatever he wants.Good Luck!!!

[Crassus]

Got totally murcked last night...down 5U. Should have hedged with Trout, I had the time but got greedy, thinking it would suck to only be up one or two U.

[MD]

Tough night; you've been winning pretty consistently though so I doubt a mild setback is anything that concerns you. You'll probably kill on the next UFC.

How do you feel about the opening lines for UFC on Fox 6?

[Crassus]

Tough night; you've been winning pretty consistently though so I doubt a mild setback is anything that concerns you. You'll probably kill on the next UFC.

How do you feel about the opening lines for UFC on Fox 6?

Every loss concerns me haha.

I'm digging the dogs actually. Probably gonna avoid the Diaz/Henderson fight other than a maybe a sprinkling on henderson by split decision if 5D has it. Shogun and Penn though will be getting action from me I think.

Excited for undercard odds to come out though. And Bellator.

[MD]

That's UFC on Fox 5.

http://bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-on-fox-6-johnson-vs-dodson-613

I like Penn a lot at those odds, too.

Henderson by split was +550 last I checked.

[Crassus]

That's UFC on Fox 5.

http://bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-on-fox-6-johnson-vs-dodson-613

I like Penn a lot at those odds, too.

Henderson by split was +550 last I checked.

Whoops, totally my bad.

At first glance, I like Mighty Mouse, Rampage, and Pettis. +550? I think I'll lay down half a U on those odds.

[MD]

Lots of steam just came in; Henderson by split/majority decision is now +1347. Enjoy.

Diaz by split/majority decision, by comparison, is in the +800 range. What are these people thinking?

[Crassus]

Total Profit so Far: 40.85U

3U on Lyman Good at -105 to win 2.86U (loss of 3U)

4U parlay of

David Rickels at -300
Alexander Sarnavskiy at -540

to win 2.32U (Gain of 2.32U)

0.5U on Kala Hose at +100 to win 0.5U (loss of 0.5U)

3U parlay of

David Price vs Matt Skelton under 7.5 rounds at -350
Tyson Fury at -700
Miguel Cotto at -220

to win 3.45U (Loss of 3U)

Total Revenue: 2.32U
Total Costs: 6.5U
Net Income: (4.18U)
Profit so far: 36.37U

1U on Nate Diaz at +125 to win 1.25U

1U on Shogun Rua at +200 to win 2U

2U on BJ Penn at +240 to win 4.8U

0.5U on Yves Edwards at +170 to win 0.85U

0.25U on Benson Henderson by split/majority decision at +1345 to win 3.41U

0.25U on BJ Penn ITD at +400 to win 1U

[MD]

You're going to have a tough, tough night my friend.