Nunya's One Way Ticket to Valuetown

[NunyaBidness]

Going to post a few plays in here. It won't be comprehensive to my actual bets. Usually have 50-100 bets in on fight cards most weekends. I will also post non-fight props here, just because there's so much value to be found, and the entertainment forum doesn't get much action.

Most of my listed plays will be agregates of several plays as my limits are so low. So I may have +208 on a line, and never have actually gotten a bet in at +208.

Pending value plays:
UFC on Fox 2
Rashad Evans -151 11.7u to win 7.75u
Demian Maia +210 11u to win 23.1u

UFC 143
Nick Diaz -105 2.62u to win 2.5u

UFC 144
Ben Henderson +125 3u to win 3.75u

UFC on FX2
Thiago Alves -110 2.75u to win 2.5u

Strikeforce
Ronda Rousey -235 5.87u to win 2.5u


Non-fight props:
Newt Gingrich to win Florida primary -175 .4375u to win .25u
Mitt Romney tax rate under 15.5% EV .25u to win .25u
Newt Gingrich to win election +3500 .25u to win 8.75

The last one there has tons of value at bookmaker. You could easily hedge with Romney now and then again with Obama if you wanted. Fair price is probably +900.

[Vaughany]

Good stuff Nunya. I like those non-fight props as well. I made a nice profit by playing both Ron Paul and Romney to win the Iowa thing couple weeks ago...got both at +150 or something on Euro books. Gonna see if any of the them have the ones that u've got

[Vaughany]

Is tht Gingrich +3500 to win the whole thing? He's +700 on eurosites!?

[NunyaBidness]

Yeah, the price is insane. Still available at Bookmaker though.

Gingrich not to win Republican primary was -290 at 5dimes a few days ago. Makes a decent hedge. And then if he does win the primary, you can take Obama at -120 or so and scoop up $300+ risk free.

[NunyaBidness]

Bookmaker puts some crazy props up from time to time.

Average Gasoline price to drop below $3.00 by Jun 21, this was in April when the price was like 3.60. Got No at -200.

2011 Memorial Day Box Office Record Broken, Yes +500.

[Vaughany]

Yeah, the price is insane. Still available at Bookmaker though.

Gingrich not to win Republican primary was -290 at 5dimes a few days ago. Makes a decent hedge. And then if he does win the primary, you can take Obama at -120 or so and scoop up $300+ risk free.

Nothing comes up on bookmaker when I click on elections? Just says: ELECTIONS - Nov 06 TO WIN 2012 USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION2012 USA PRESIDENT ELECTION - WINNING PARTYELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES

[NunyaBidness]

Well, it's BetDSI that I'm on, I thought they always had all the same bets available.

Here's what I show under elections:

ELECTIONS
ELECTIONS - Nov 06
Time
# Teams Spread Total Odds
1:11 AM
TO WIN 2012 USA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
85015 BARACK OBAMA


-165
85016 MITT ROMNEY


+140
85017 RON PAUL


+2500
85018 NEWT GINGRICH


+3500
85019 RICK SANTORUM


+4000
85020 HILLARY CLINTON


+5000
85021 RICK PERRY


+150000
85022 JON HUNTSMAN


+6000
1:11 AM
2012 USA PRESIDENT ELECTION - WINNING PARTY
85030 DEMOCRATS


-165
85031 REPUBLICANS


+155
85032 INDEPENDENT


+500
1:11 AM
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES
85085 DEMOCRAT WINS 410+


+1000
85086 DEMOCRAT WINS 390-409


+4500
85087 DEMOCRAT WINS 370-389


+3000
85088 DEMOCRAT WINS 350-369


+1800
85089 DEMOCRAT WINS 330-349


+1500
85090 DEMOCRAT WINS 310-329


+1000
85091 DEMOCRAT WINS 290-309


+700
85092 DEMOCRAT WINS 270-289


+400
85093 TIE 269-269


+3000
85094 REPUBLICAN WINS 270-289


+400
85095 REPUBLICAN WINS 290-309


+500
85096 REPUBLICAN WINS 310-329


+1000
85097 REPUBLICAN WINS 330-349


+1400
85098 REPUBLICAN WINS 350-369


+1800
85099 REPUBLICAN WINS 370-389


+2300
85100 REPUBLICAN WINS 390-409


+3000
85101 REPUBLICAN WINS 410+


+600

[NunyaBidness]

But, you're right, I just logged into my bookmaker account and the bet isn't available there. Luckily, they let you sign up for all 3 of their books and they don't care as long as you don't use it to subvert limits.

Guess I shouldn't use 'bookmaker' and 'dsi' interchangeably anymore.

[NunyaBidness]

Lock of the day:
Who will Newt Gringrich pick to win the SB XLVI

Patriots -120 1.2u to win 1

He's shown he doesn't know anything about sports. If he's forced to pick a winner, he's going to say "Patriots" 99 times out of 100, the other time he's going to say a team that's not playing.

[Vaughany]

Bookmaker?

[NunyaBidness]

BetUS

[The HOFF]

Demian Maia +210 11u to win 23.1u

F@ck you! I could only get the Bookmaker line at +140.

Rashad, Ben Henderson, and Alves.

[NunyaBidness]

I was pissed I missed the +255 opener. I can't believe Maia is + money still.

You don't like Diaz at that price? I expected to bet Condit where I thought the line would open, but -105 on Nick Diaz was obvious line value.

[Vaughany]

Yeah Diaz at -105 was always gonna be great value. He's the one with all the hype, and his brother beating Cerrone helped. Line was always gonna worsen

[NunyaBidness]

Bisping by sub +1253 1u to win 12.53u
Sonnen by dec -130 1u to win .769u
Roop +170 2.5u to win 4.25u
Roller -165 4.125u to win 2.5u

[NunyaBidness]

UFC on Fox 2
Rashad Evans -151 11.7u to win 7.75u win
Demian Maia +210 11u to win 23.1u lose
Bisping by sub +1253 1u to win 12.53u lose
Sonnen by dec -130 1u to win .769u win
Roop +170 2.5u to win 4.25u lose
Roller -165 4.125u to win 2.5u lose

UFC On Fox 2 results 2-4 -10.106u

Beat the closing line significantly in all cases. Unfortunate results however.


UFC 143 plays
Nick Diaz -105 2.62u to win 2.5u
Carlos Condit +190 5u to win 9.5u
Koscheck -210 4.2u to win 2u
Renan Barao -200 5u to win 2.5u
Alex Caceres +155 2u to win 3.1u
Stephen Thompson -200 5u to win 2.5u

[NunyaBidness]

Election Plays:

Newt Gingrich to win Florida primary -175 .4375u to win .25u lose -.25u
Mitt Romney tax rate under 15.5% EV .25u to win .25u win +.25u

pending:
Newt Gingrich to win election +3500 .25u to win 8.75
Newt Gingrich doesn't win nomination -265 1.675u to win .65u
Mitt Romney to win nomination -175 .875u to win .5u
Mitt Romney wins Election +400 1u to win 4u

[illmatick]

how did you lock your thread to Pros only?

[NunyaBidness]

Theres a little checkbox at the bottom when you start a thread now.

[NunyaBidness]

UFC 143 plays
Nick Diaz -105 2.62u to win 2.5u lose
Carlos Condit +190 5u to win 9.5u win
Koscheck -210 4.2u to win 2u win
Renan Barao -200 5u to win 2.5u win
Alex Caceres +155 2u to win 3.1u lose
Stephen Thompson -200 5u to win 2.5u win

UFC 143 results 4-1 +11.88u

[NunyaBidness]

Lock of the day:
Who will Newt Gringrich pick to win the SB XLVI

Patriots -120 1.2u to win 1

He's shown he doesn't know anything about sports. If he's forced to pick a winner, he's going to say "Patriots" 99 times out of 100, the other time he's going to say a team that's not playing.

Guess that 1% came in. I am rooting for "the team that beat the Packers".

[Vaughany]

UFC 143 plays
Nick Diaz -105 2.62u to win 2.5u lose
Carlos Condit +190 5u to win 9.5u win
Koscheck -210 4.2u to win 2u win
Renan Barao -200 5u to win 2.5u win
Alex Caceres +155 2u to win 3.1u lose
Stephen Thompson -200 5u to win 2.5u win

UFC 143 results 4-1 +11.88u

Bravo chap

[NunyaBidness]

Lavar Johnson +200 2.5u to win 5u

I expect big movement in this line, closing closer to -140 for Barry.

[NunyaBidness]

Lawrence/Marciello goes to Sudden Victory Round +900 .1u to win .9u

Unfortunately tiny limits, but looks like value to me.

[NunyaBidness]

Kentucky derby props:

Horse 11-20 wins, +175 fair line is +112 (available sportsbook)
Odd Number horse wins +150, fair line is +140 (available sportsbook, bodog, betus)

[NunyaBidness]

Kentucky derby props:

Horse 11-20 wins, +175 fair line is +112 (available sportsbook)
Odd Number horse wins +150, fair line is +140 (available sportsbook, bodog, betus)

Both winners, hope someone tailed.

[Vaughany]

Nice one

[NunyaBidness]

I'll Have Another the massive belmont stakes favorite was just scratched, if you have slowmoving books you should be able to find some value.

[NunyaBidness]

Will Mayweather be released early from his 87 day jail sentence. Yes -200 Bodog.

[NunyaBidness]

Let's continue my theme of getting insane value and losing regardless:

[#xxxxxxxxx] Boxing - Bradley v Pacquiao (Risking: 100.00 - To Win: 380.00)

06/09/2012 - 09:17 PM

RBL

Pick the WinnerM Pacquiao Score: () - ()

LOSE

[sideloaded]

Let's continue my theme of getting insane value and losing regardless:

[#xxxxxxxxx] Boxing - Bradley v Pacquiao (Risking: 100.00 - To Win: 380.00)

06/09/2012 - 09:17 PM

RBL

Pick the WinnerM Pacquiao Score: () - ()

LOSE

That is not insane value, you bet a reversed line and allowed the sportsbook to freeroll you. If it had won the bet would have been canceled and SBR would tell you to quit shot taking.

[NunyaBidness]

That is not insane value, you bet a reversed line and allowed the sportsbook to freeroll you. If it had won the bet would have been canceled and SBR would tell you to quit shot taking.

live betting, dumb dumb. At bookmaker, and they've paid them off before.

Glad to see you're keeping all 3 accounts active.

[sideloaded]

live betting, dumb dumb. At bookmaker, and they've paid them off before.

Glad to see you're keeping all 3 accounts active.

Um no, First off how are we supposed to know that ticket is live betting? Second that was not live betting. Pacquaio was never +380 in live betting. Nice try. Funny Pacquiao was -380 a lot of places.

[NunyaBidness]

Um no, First off how are we supposed to know that ticket is live betting? Second that was not live betting. Pacquaio was never +380 in live betting. Nice try. Funny Pacquiao was -380 a lot of places.

Ummm, guess it was live betting, and your just another clown who talks and talks and talks and doesn't know a ******* thing.




How do you like them apples?

[sideloaded]

Ummm, guess it was live betting, and your just another clown who talks and talks and talks and doesn't know a ******* thing.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]43286[/ATTACH]


How do you like them apples?

Yes that is clear now but not from the ticket you posted. And it was a still a bad line and you got freerolled. U mad?