Christ like MMA betting

PunisherIND · 09-29-12, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Jesus Christ

hahaha

Jesus Christ · 10-05-12, 12:43 AM

YTD 59-57-2 +$9,789.57
UFC and Bellator on the same night..let's roll.

I'll start off on Bellator 75 with one play.

The play is on Brett Rogers..outside of the ring I wouldn't mind hearing this dude got hit by a bus but as far as tomorrow goes I believe his power is gonna be too much for the tall Russian...watching what I could find on Volkov I've seen a lot of him backing straight up..Rogers doesn't do much right but if he can get the Russian backing up into a corner he's gonna mess him up...I'll say Brett Rogers wins via KO Round 1

UFC

On to the UFC where I have a big card with 5 plays.

My first play is on Aaron Simpson..line is way off here IMO..Simpson is the better striker and while Pierce has good wrestling I think Simpson is gonna decide where this fight takes place..Pierce has real power but Simpson's beard is damn good...I think after a slow start Simpson will find his rhythm and basically pick Pierce apart on the feet...I'll say Aaron Simpson wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Second play is on Carlo Prater (Sorry BIGDAY) LeVesseur is a powerful wrestler with some heavy ground and pound but he just doesn't recognize when he is being set up got a sub he just looks lost at times which should cost him against a guy who specializes in front chokes..LeVesseur gets caught again here..I''l say Carlo Prater wins via Submission (Anaconda-Choke) ROund 1

Third play is Danny Castillo..I'm not as high on Johnson as most it seems...this has a lot of similarities to Johnson's fight with Roller except Castillo is competent on the feet and I think has a little bit better MMA wrestling because he can set it up with punches unlike Roller..when Johnson gets put on his back I expect him to absorb a lot of damage esp in the later parts of the fight..all Castillo me thinks...I'll say Danny Castillo wins via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Fourth play is on Da Silva..I like this bet alot..Dodson is being way over valued in this spot when his oppenent has a clear path to victory..I expect Formiga to create scrambles and basically just hang out on Dodsons back for enough of the fight to take a decision.. a lot of boos in this fight with people prolly being pissed off..I'll say Jussier Da Silva wins via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

My last play is on Travis Browne..don't see me norm playing over -200 favorites but I just have very little faith in Big Foot..it's simple in my eyes Browne will be too fast, athletic, and powerful..I expect him to crack Big Foot's shitty chin early...I'll say Travis Browne wins via TKO Round 1

A lot of bets and $$$ pending GL everyone

MD · 10-05-12, 01:20 AM

Do you never play props as a rule, or do you just not see value in them? Just out of curiosity, as the Travis Browne by KO prop is hovering around -120 and it seems as if that's the only possible way he wins that fight.

Good picks, by the way. I agree with many, but I'm on Johnson instead of Castillo. I'm also putting some money down on Da Silva later on.

Mercersux · 10-05-12, 02:54 AM

Like the picks Jesus. GL as always my man.

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 03:11 AM

Good to see you on A-Train me Lord. Will probably play that as well but waiting to see if Pierce gets some more late action

gabe · 10-05-12, 03:21 AM

Surprised you're not on Bart p or volkmann

gabe · 10-05-12, 03:24 AM

Hm, looks like you like prater more than you do Castillo...

bjpenn85 · 10-05-12, 05:38 AM

im not. Bart is sooo sloooooow. While diego is light and quick. Bart has very accurate standup tho and hes very good at swarming when peoples hurt.

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 05:41 AM

Diego Nunes is another one who's fights are more than likely going the distance so you are pretty much counting on him doing enough to take the decision. He doesnt have much power...seems to just throw a lot of unorthodox strikes for the hell of it and to look busy.

gabe · 10-05-12, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

im not. Bart is sooo sloooooow. While diego is light and quick. Bart has very accurate standup tho and hes very good at swarming when peoples hurt.

he's fast on the feet, no?

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 07:44 AM

Slower then Nunes

gabe · 10-05-12, 08:00 AM

obviously. but now slow, in general. he was clearly faster than tyson griffin!

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 08:08 AM

Money coming in on Nunes and Volkmann now

gabe · 10-05-12, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Money coming in on Nunes and Volkmann now

lines haven't changed

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by gabe

lines haven't changed

Nunes is at -205 or worse across the board now - was at -180 to -190 range on most sites, only have to look at oddschecker to see that most Euro sites still have him at -187 which is typical as they are slower to follow the steam. Same with Volkmann, can still get him at -187 on Euro sites while he's -200 or -210 on bestfightodds on all

BIGDAY · 10-05-12, 09:18 AM

GL pal!

4-1 for ya. Your only loss being Prater...

gabe · 10-05-12, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Nunes is at -205 or worse across the board now - was at -180 to -190 range on most sites, only have to look at oddschecker to see that most Euro sites still have him at -187 which is typical as they are slower to follow the steam. Same with Volkmann, can still get him at -187 on Euro sites while he's -200 or -210 on bestfightodds on all

he's been -210 for like half a day now

PunisherIND · 10-05-12, 09:56 AM

reduced juice lines available on 5d, although not showing on BFO. enjoy.

PunisherIND · 10-05-12, 10:48 AM

damnit they pulled the two line errors. i bet one of you focks got greedy and dropped 500 on it.

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

damnit they pulled the two line errors. i bet one of you focks got greedy and dropped 500 on it.

ha what were they? They'll void them anway wont they

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 10:59 AM

They pulled the FOTN down as well I think

Beelzebubzy · 10-05-12, 11:16 AM

Anyone on roller volkmann to go distance

PunisherIND · 10-05-12, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

ha what were they? They'll void them anway wont they

probably would void them anyway. lol. it was dodson +188 and stephens +210.

PunisherIND · 10-05-12, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

They pulled the FOTN down as well I think

yea, got a notice saying that they erroneously stated all 12 fights must take place when it should have said 11 fights. bets are still pending though. nothing voided. they just pulled the lines for a while.

Crassus · 10-05-12, 12:23 PM

You and me on Formiga jesus!

Mercersux · 10-05-12, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Anyone on roller volkmann to go distance

Should hit easily. Every one of Volkmann's win are by distance and neither have much finishing capabilities. I like it.

TheCalculator · 10-05-12, 01:00 PM

It's always scary to go against JC. Unfortunately I'm only on half of the picks.

Jesus Christ · 10-05-12, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by MD

Do you never play props as a rule, or do you just not see value in them? Just out of curiosity, as the Travis Browne by KO prop is hovering around -120 and it seems as if that's the only possible way he wins that fight.

Good picks, by the way. I agree with many, but I'm on Johnson instead of Castillo. I'm also putting some money down on Da Silva later on.

Norm I don't touch props with their 100$ limits...just not worth it.

Jesus Christ · 10-05-12, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Hm, looks like you like prater more than you do Castillo...

I really do like Prater..there is not a lot he is good at but front chokes are his thing and LeVesseur just isn't smart to avoid them..if I believed LeVesseur would lay and pray his way to victory like he probably can I wouldn't make this play but I see him getting reckless and getting caught.

gabe · 10-05-12, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Jesus Christ

I really do like Prater..there is not a lot he is good at but front chokes are his thing and LeVesseur just isn't smart to avoid them..if I believed LeVesseur would lay and pray his way to victory like he probably can I wouldn't make this play but I see him getting reckless and getting caught.

you don't think he will fight smarter after the last fight? i'm kinda banking on it...

Vaughany · 10-05-12, 03:33 PM

Yeah but fighting smarter means using his wrestling that may put him in position to get choked out!

gabe · 10-05-12, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah but fighting smarter means using his wrestling that may put him in position to get choked out!

fighting smarter meaning not leaving his neck out there. he should get prater in side control and pwn him from there...

gabe · 10-05-12, 03:37 PM

Levesseur line for me is -130, so it's hard to stop hitting it lol but I'm done with it!!!! Gonna let whatever I got riding ride...

DeFactoCrippler · 10-05-12, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah but fighting smarter means using his wrestling that may put him in position to get choked out!

Levasseur was clearly getting the better of Cody Mckenzie on the feet but he still took it to the ground anyways and jumped into the guillotine. He is obviously uncomfortable standing.

Jesus Christ · 10-05-12, 04:53 PM

Spot on to those who said that the speed diff would be the key to Bart/Nunes.