varkolek's mma/boxing plays

[varkolek]

Bakhtin won by decision.

Profit = 1.0475 units


2 judges had it 119-109, and 1 had it 117-111. I thought that might be due to the fight being in Bakhtin's native country, but Boxingscene scored it 118-110, so perhaps the odds were justified. Bakhtin has a good jab.

[varkolek]

Bellator 64

Hiroshi Nakamura vs Rodrigo Lima - 2 units @ 2.2


Lima slapped an arm bar on someone, I think his name was Louis Carlos, as soon as Carlos postured up. Lima didn't complete the arm bar, but he slapped it on rapidly. It has me kind of worried, hopefully Nakamura will have good defence for that.

[varkolek]

Vic Darchinyan vs Shinsuke Yamanaka and Takahiro Aoh vs Terdsak Kokietgym

I didn't post these bets before they were settled, but I only realised the Darchinyan fight was on until this morning, when the lines opened at 1.80 for Darchinyan and 2.0 for Yamanaka at a local book. British books had Darchinyan at about 1.44 and Yamanaka at 2.75.

In itself the 1.80 vs 2.75 was arbable by a good margin, but Boylesports had Yamanaka by decision at 3.5. I figured the local book had priced it wrong, and people were going to bet Darchinyan. So I watched a bit of footage, and then put $200 on Darchinyan @ 1.8, and I had to sleep but planned on watching more footage and hedging with Yamanaka by decision.

When I wake up, people have been betting Yamanaka and his odds are 1.91 at Boylesports, and Boylesports had taken down all the props. So I have a $200 straight play on Darchinyan I can't get rid of.

I panicked and bought back $100 at 1.91, when I could have bought it back at 2.0 at the local book. And then I bet $100 on over 8.5 rounds @ 1.44. This means the only profitable outcome would be Darchinyan over 8.5 rounds. I should have bought back $180 @ 2.0 vs $200 @ 1.80 and incurred a $20 loss either side.

Then Boylesports puts the Props back up probably not even 1 hour before the fight, when all of the other books have closed their markets. The odds for Yamanaka by decision now are 2.75, so I put $35 on at that price. Which means I almost covered my exposure of $110 on Darchinyan with a $105 win on Yamanaka by decision and Over 8.5.

It's the last time I bet one side of a hedge without simultaneously betting the other.


Then I watched some footage of Takahiro Aoh and Terdsak Kokietgym, and bet $150 on over 8.5 rounds @ 1.22, vs Terdsak by KO @ 11.0 at bet365.

When I placed the bet, the odds came up as 1.44 instead of 1.22. I was hoping I could get away with this because bet365 stole my bonus once before. Anyway, after the Aoh-Kokietgym fight I went to see if they had settled it, and it turns out they had put the $150 on Darchinyan-Yamanaka going over 8.5 instead of Aoh-Kokietgym.

The results of the fights were Yamanaka edged Darchinyan in a close fight, and Aoh beat Kokietgym by UD.

I lost about $5-10 with all the hedging on the Darchinyan fight, but because bet365 messed up my bet on the Aoh fight I won over $60 on that.


That was probably almost unreadable, but the summary is - I almost lost $200 straight on Darchinyan, and had $150 exposure I didn't want on that fight going over 8.5 rounds, and the end result is I'm up about $50.

[varkolek]

Fernanda Alegre vs Chris Namus

Fernanda Alegre by decision - about 2.4 units @ 1.5

Draw - 0.09 @ 26.0

The odds dropped from 1.57 to 1.5 while I was doing some research.



Usually I don't follow women's boxing because some of the knock outs are bogus. When I was watching footage before Holly Holm's last match, I saw that tkos were sometimes due to things like bloody noses. And even watching these two, the girls sometimes get standing 'protection counts'. Alegre isn't a big puncher but she's a great inside fighter, and a lot of her stoppages are by the opponent's corner throwing in the towel.

I don't like that because it's one more variable I don't need. Like I might bet on a fighter to win or a distance prop, and then she loses by tko because she turns away from punches.

But Namus is pretty good and pretty tough. I don't think there'll be a bogus knock out here and Namus will make it a contest, but to win she'd have to make some drastic changes from the first match and I doubt she can do that.

[varkolek]

Results for Bellator 64: Nakamura won

Profit = 2.4 units


By the reports seems I was right to worry about Lima's submission attempts. I also never liked Sandro as a fighter, his stand up isn't technical he just has huge power.

Didn't look into Marx because I heard there wasn't much footage, and didn't know who Horodecki was, but Richman and Marx were huge dogs and they cashed, makes me wish I had looked into it.

[varkolek]

0.2 units on Chris Namus @ 5.0


I was searching news about the fight, and translated some articles from Spanish saying that it was originally scheduled for March 23 but Alegre injured a tendon in her shoulder.

In their first match Namus won some of the later rounds when she pressed forward. I wouldn't have given some of those rounds to her but the scorers did. The odds aren't great for Alegre to win, I might not have bet if I knew she had an injury.

[varkolek]

Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr vs Juan Alberto Rosas

Sanchez Jr by decision - 1.65 units @ 2.25

Draw - 0.06 @ 26.0


Sanchez Jr most recently won a title by narrowly beating Rodrigo Guerrero. A couple years back Guerrero only beat Rosas by split decision. But Rosas and Guerrero are a similar type of fighter, both pretty flat footed. I think Rosas might be a bit less mobile and definitely less skilled than Guerrero, but applies more pressure.

Christian Mijares also stood in the pocket with Rosas and made him look bad. That fight was still pretty close but again Mijares is flat footed and allowed himself to be cornered.

I think Sanchez Jr is going to outmanoeuvre Rosas, but there is the possibility he gets knocked down or out if Rosas gets close enough times.

Not much footage is available; for Sanchez Jr only his fight with Guerrero, and Rosas' fight with Guerrero isn't available. I don't know what Sanchez Jr's chin is like, he has been stopped once, but Rosas usually stops people with an accumulation of punches and I figure Sanchez Jr isn't going to be hit too much.

[varkolek]

Alegre won by controversial UD. Some of the judges had a decent margin, but one only had her winning by a 1 point difference.

The odds on Alegre weren't great, but when there's a rematch things have already been mapped out before. I figured there was a high probability Alegre would win the majority of rounds, some of the Namus fans are pissed though.

Also, I bet 0.20 units on Namus @ 5.0, but I could have got her at Pinnacle @ 6.45. I keep forgetting but Pinnacle puts odds up for these small matches the day of the fight, with bigger limits than the Euro books do.


Profit = 0.91 units

[varkolek]

The Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr vs Juan Alberto Rosas fight didn't happen for whatever reason.

[varkolek]

Felix Sturm vs Sebastian Zbik

Fight goes distance - 1.8 units @ 1.31 to win 0.558

Sebastian Zbik - 0.55 @ about 3.76


Probably could have got better than 3.76 on Zbik. I didn't watch much footage, although I had already seen a lot on Sturm, but from what I have seen I think Zbik may be the better fighter. German against German. I heard Sturm is the promoter, I'm not really sure what the judges will do.

[varkolek]

Felix Sturm won by stoppage. Zbik retired around the 10th round, he wanted to continue but his corner stopped it.

I had thought the distance prop was fairly low risk but perhaps not, honestly I didn't watch a single whole fight of Zbik but they have similar styles and was going by his reputation.

Lost 2.35 units.

[varkolek]

UFC on Fuel TV 2

Brad Pickett vs Damacio Page

Picket wins inside distance - 0.9 units @ 2.5
Picket wins on points - 0.9 @ 2.75
Draw - 0.03 @ 67


Demarques Johnson vs John Maguire

Maguire - 3.2 @ about 1.7
Maguire inside distance - 0.45 @ 3


Denis Siver vs Diego Nunes

Fight goes distance - 2.3 units @ 1.76

Initially I thought Nunes by decision was a good play, but then I thought he had been in a lot of close fights so thought this was safer.

[varkolek]

I just realised what a bad price I got on Pickett inside the distance. The effective odds were 1.25.

I got called off to work at short notice, so placed the 0.9 on Pickett winning on points before I left, then when I came back and watched some footage I realised a stoppage was possible, so bet the other side.

[varkolek]

Bellator 66

Brian Rogers vs Andreas Spang - 1.5 units @ 1.31

I haven't seen Spang's most recent win by tko, but his other ko win looked kind of flukey.