varkolek's mma/boxing plays

[varkolek]

Munoz got hit with a huge knee by Grove....the fact tht he took the blows tht he did in tht fight yet still recovered and won shows, if anything, that he has a great chin or at least great recovery. Similar to Bisping, everybody seems too think he doesnt have a chin, I really dont get it

I think he has a good chin, he gets discredited for being knocked out by Hamil and such. But if I recall he was dropped by an uppercut from Grove which I don't think would hurt Minowa as much, that was the blow I was referring too. Minowa took a beating from Rampage for a long time.

Gabriel Rosado won, but finished Karass in the fifth round. So I lost the last 2 plays, 1.94 units total.

I was scrambling to get the bet on Rosado-Karass in, and didn't know who the fighters were but didn't think Karass could stop Rosado. Then I remembered I had already watched footage of Karass once before, for his second fight with Mike Jones, and I realised Rosado should beat him so I added that play.

I got most of my fight footage especially boxing from megaupload, but that's been killed now, so I'll have to look for some other avenue. Might try newsgroups.

[varkolek]

I wanted to bet on Dustin Jacoby but just missed it.

Aside from that I got:

0.67 on Chael Sonnen by decision to win 0.62

0.5 on Phil Davis to win 0.96
0.55 on Davis by decision to win 2.6125

0.55 on Dunham/Lentz goes the distance to win 0.319

1.9 on Lavar Johnson to win 3.325

0.3 on Shane Roller by submission to win 0.519

0.55 on George Roop by decision to win 1.705

1.75 on Maia/Weidman goes over 2.5 rounds to win 1.0

[varkolek]

Won the plays on Sonnen, Lavar, and Maia/Weidman, and lost the rest.

Loss = 2.45 units

Won = 4.945

Profit = 2.495 units


I should have bet bigger on Lavar since I thought it was a good stylistic match up, but got scared since I've been losing lately and he's not well rounded. Also, I was originally going to bet on Michael Johnson by decision but changed my mind and went to Shane Roller by sub. Johnson by dec would have covered my losses on the other props.

[varkolek]

Steve Cunningham vs Yoan Pablo Hernandez

Over 9.5 rounds - 1.4 units to win 0.7568

Steve Cunningham by decision - 0.55 units to win 1.2375


The first fight Steve Cunningham got caught with a hook flush to temple in the first round, and he was hurt so bad they could have arguably stopped the fight. But he adjusted pretty well after that and won every round except the fourth. However, 2 judges had Yoan ahead on the scorecards.

If the rematch was in the US I'd bet heavier on Cunningham, but unfortunately in Germany you can't bet on the outcome but the judges' decision.

[ddream1]

gl sir, going with "C" also, i think he takes this even in germany, like ur plays sir best of luck

[varkolek]

Thanks. UFC 143:


Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit - 1.1 units to win 0.627

I didn't think this through much. I still haven't watched Diaz's fight with BJ Penn, but I think Diaz is better than Condit on the ground although I doubt he'll take it there. Condit probably has better wrestling. Standing I don't know since so few of Carlos' fights have been standing. I think I should have bet a bit less at these odds.


Rafael Natal vs Michael Kuiper - 0.7 units to win 1.08.5
Rafael Natal on Points - 0.7 units to win 122.5


Alex Caceres vs Edwin Figueroa - 1 unit to win 1.2
Alex Caceres on Points - 1 unit to win 3.4

I've been betting small for ages, so this bet is disproportionately large. But I think Caceres has an advantage standing. I'm worried Figueora might get top position and impress the judges with gnp, but Caceres showed a good guard against Escovedo so hopefully it shouldn't be a problem.


Koscheck vs Mike Pierce
Over 2.5 rounds - 0.65 units @ 1.57 to win 0.37


Fabricio Werdum by Submission or Points - 0.85 units @ 1.85
Roy Nelson by KO or Points - 0.576 @ 2.73
to win 0.1465 units

[varkolek]

I saw Vaughany make this hedge so decided to copy it:

Matt Brown - 1 unit to win 0.31

Chris Cope on Points - 0.16 units to win 1.04

[varkolek]

Apparently Yoan Pablo Hernandez did well. I usually don't watch fights after they happen, but an online magazine scored it a draw, while 2 of the judges scored it 116-110 for Yoan. This is why it's a waste of time to bet on foreign fighters in Germany, even if Cunningham won by a wide margin he still would have lost the decision.

Lost on Diaz, and on Caceres. Can't believe 2 points were deducted from Cacares, he was my biggest play and him by decision would have got me a great profit.

Won the rest of the plays.

Lost = 3.1 units
Won = 1.4

Profit = -1.7

[varkolek]

UFC on FUEL TV


Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez - 3 units to win 122.45

Diego Sanchez on Points - 0.35 units to win 1.4

I don't think Diego will win, but not prepared to lose 3 units due to Diego punching air. Diego is a pressure fighter, and since Kampmann likes a certain range and is defensive it worked well for him (in the judges' eyes). I don't think Ellenberger will be too bothered by Sanchez coming forward, and can take him down also. I actually used to bet consistently larger, but losing on Kampmann against Diego was the incident that stopped that, because I figured the judging in mma can't be relied on.


Ronny Markes @ 2.3 - 0.71
Aaron Simpson @ 2.05 - 0.8
to win about 0.1

Aaron Simpson on Points - 0.94 to win 1.4
Markes - 1.4 to win 1.82

Due to currency conversion and the eventual cashout fee, the effective odds I got and profit on Markes are less than above. Also, I could have got Simpson on points @ 2.5 at a local bookmaker in my own currency, but the previous day they didn't have the odds up, so I made the mistake of using 5Dimes @ 2.49 + currency conversion fees.


Dave Herman - 1.15 to win 0.84
Stefan Struve on Points - 0.2 to win 1.4

In an interview before he fought Barry, Struve seemed pretty embarassed about his ko losses, and kept emphasising he was going to use his reach etc. I think he'll do everything possible to avoid getting knocked out here, and his kick boxing has improved a bit so figure he can win by decision. Doubt he can knock out Herman since Herman has been hit hard numerous times and usually recovers, although Struve could get a sub, especially after rocking Herman.


TJ Dillashaw on Points - 0.7282 @ 2.2
Walel Watson - 0.4 @ 3.56
to win 0.4026


John Albert vs Ivan Menjivar - 1.1 to win 2.079


Buddy Roberts vs Sean Loeffler - 1.65 to win 1.0832


Bernado Magalhaes vs Tim Means - 0.55 to win 0.4472

[varkolek]

Crap night.
Won = 185
Lost = 300
Profit = -115

I've had a quiet period since the start of the year. Would have had a good profit last card off Cacares but he was robbed. I had a good feeling about Ronny Markes being mispriced, but the rationalising made me hedge away the bet. Anyway sounds like Simpson did well with the striking in the first round.

I think Bernado Magalhaes was a degenerate bet. I had a good feeling about Means but usually bet on the grappler.

[varkolek]

Adonis Stevenson > Jesus Gonzalez - 0.8 @ 1.25

Jorge Arce vs Lorenzo Parra
Over 9.5 - 2.3 @ 3
Lorenzo Parra - 0.2 @ 7

Paul Williams > Nobuhiro Ishida - 1.1 @ 1.25
Paul Williams by decision - 0.2 @ 1.9

1.25 on Vitali to win 0.125
Arb on over/under 9.5 rounds to win about 0.3 - 0.35

[varkolek]

Won all the above plays except for the Jorge Arce - Lorenzo Parra fight, which was also the biggest.

So lost 1.27 units.

Lorenzo Parra had been knocked out once before this, and aside from that he quit twice. Once against Caballero, and in his most recent fight against Moreno. Parra fights backing up, but Moreno showed too much movement so I think he got frustrated. Parra also won his first match with Jorge Arce in Arce's backyard, but a point deduction made it a draw.

Since their first match, Arce stopped Wilfredo Vazquez Jr who didn't move and didn't clinch when hurt, and he made Angky Anghkota retire the first time and couldn't stop him the second time. Angky is in the same weight division but looks like a 6 year old child beside Arce. Arce just steered him into a corner every round and pounded on his body until Angky got winded and decided to stop. Arce isn't even that big a puncher.

So the perception is, Arce has been on a tear and has experienced a career revival, whereas Parra is no longer interested in his career, due to him quitting against Moreno. I thought the books were giving me 200% return on the premise that Parra doesn't quit in this fight, and instead Parra actually does get knocked out.

I honestly thought the fight going the distance was a good bet.

[varkolek]

UFC 144


Quinton Jackson - 1 unit to win 0.4255
Bader by decision - 0.25 units to win 1.05

I didn't bet big on this because Bader hits hard, and now Rampage has missed weight, but too late to change it.


Riki Fukuda on points - 1.2 to win 0.912
Steve Cantwell - 0.9 @ 3.6 to win 2.34

I could have got Cantwell @ 3.75 if I waited. I figure Cantwell will outstrike Fukuda, but don't bet straight against people who I think can get take downs.


Norifumi Yamamoto > Vaughan Lee - 0.75 to win 0.2517


Edgar on points - 0.55 to win 1.1
Henderson - 0.7 to win 0.952


Anthony Pettis on points - 0.65 @ 3.16 to win 1.404
Joe Lauzon - 0.6 @ 3.51 to win 1.506

I could have got Pettis on points @ 3.5, but a bookmaker I use didn't release that line until 18 hours before. I didn't know they were going to release it, since they usually don't offer props for all fights. I doubt Pettis will initiate any grappling or wrestling so I think a stoppage is unlikely, and doubt he kos Lauzon. Just hope Lauzon doesn't fade.

[varkolek]

I added this degenerate play:

Mark Hunt - 0.5 @ 3.6
Kongo by decision - 0.31 @ 5.5
to win 0.83

I did this a bit impulsively, but technically it is not a large bet.

[varkolek]

Lost on Kid Yamamoto and the hedge for Pettis by decision-Lauzon. I guess I underestimated Pettis' ko ability.

Won the rest or the hedges worked. Glad I hedged for Bader by decision.

Lost 0.738


Tim Boetsch curled into a ball against Hamill after gassing and got tkod, and his power is decent so thought he might ko Okami. I thought a stoppage might come from either direction, so in retrospect I probably should have bet on the fight not going the distance. Would have got good odds for it.

[varkolek]

UFC on FX 2


Costa Philippou vs Court McGee
0.9355 units @ 2.15
0.6 @ 1.99

Costa by KO - 0.25 @ 5.6
Costa by sub - 0.05 @ 13.5

Knowing who the fighters are in advance hasn't worked well here, I wasn't sure how the line would move after opening. Put some down at 5Dimes which I don't like using, and some at Pinnacle @ 1.99 when I could have got Costa at 2.2 now at Pinnacle.

When Costa fought Hamman I had this vision he'd get an effortless ko and my instinct was to bet the house. Instead I bet hardly anything. I placed a real bet here but Costa makes some amateurish grappling mistakes, and McGee has decent grappling, so it's possible McGee wins via take downs.


Shawn Jordan vs Oli Thompson - 0.5 @ 1.526
Not sure about this one now, but Thompson is fairly sloppy.


Thiago Alves vs Martin Kampmann
Alves on Points - 0.5 @ 2.47

A lot of people seem to be on Alves inside the distance. I never thought Alves hits that hard with his hands, and Kampmann is pretty durable. I have this weird fear Alves might hurt Kampmann's bad knee with kicks though.


Demetrius Johnson vs Ian McCall - 1.3 @ 1.352

[varkolek]

Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey


Ronda Rousey vs Meisha Tate
Rousey - 5.8 units @ 1.47 to win 2.283
Tate - 0.8 units @ 3.69 to win 2.152

When the line opened I figured Rousey would become arbable, and also was trying to be smarter with my bet sizes. The odds aren't that profitable though, and I'm not comfortable risking this much but have decided to let it ride. Risking about 3.75 units on Rousey.

I think Tate just isn't very strong in the clinch. When Rousey fought Julia Budd I was worried because of how strong Budd is, but Rousey took her down easily although Budd was off balance at the time. When Tate clinches with people she often gets overpowered. Tate's wrestling take downs are good, but a lot of the grappling between her and Coenen was competitive, and Rousey is probably at least as good a grappler as Coenen, having trained with Gokor.


Sarah Kaufman vs Alexis Davis - 0.75 @ 1.2
Alexis Davis is probably going to burrow in and hug Kaufman to avoid her strikes. This might confuse the judges, but Kaufman is a great fighter, still think she is worth a play.


Ronaldo Souza vs Bristol Marunde - 0.3 @ 1.17

[Vaughany]

Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey


Ronda Rousey vs Meisha Tate
Rousey - 5.8 units @ 1.47 to win 2.283
Tate - 0.8 units @ 3.69 to win 2.152

When the line opened I figured Rousey would become arbable, and also was trying to be smarter with my bet sizes. The odds aren't that profitable though, and I'm not comfortable risking this much but have decided to let it ride. Risking about 3.75 units on Rousey.

I think Tate just isn't very strong in the clinch. When Rousey fought Julia Budd I was worried because of how strong Budd is, but Rousey took her down easily although Budd was off balance at the time. When Tate clinches with people she often gets overpowered. Tate's wrestling take downs are good, but a lot of the grappling between her and Coenen was competitive, and Rousey is probably at least as good a grappler as Coenen, having trained with Gokor.


Sarah Kaufman vs Alexis Davis - 0.75 @ 1.2
Alexis Davis is probably going to burrow in and hug Kaufman to avoid her strikes. This might confuse the judges, but Kaufman is a great fighter, still think she is worth a play.


Ronaldo Souza vs Bristol Marunde - 0.3 @ 1.17

She's on a whole different level to Coenen brah!

[varkolek]

Daniel Geale vs Osamanu Adama

1.4 units on Geale on Points @ 1.7
0.6 units on Geale on Points @ 1.85

I got the 1.7 on Betfair. 19 hours before the fight none of the sportsbooks had Method of Victory props up, and now they do.

I also had some straight plays on Geale I had to arb out of.

Geale and Adama have a recent common opponent in Roman Karmazin, but unfortunately no footage is available for Adama-Karmazin. If Megaupload were still around there probably would be. But I think Geale is good enough that he's worth a play. He's defensively great, don't see him getting knocked out, and he also should edge a decision. Adama referred to Geale as a ballet dancer and said he hasn't watched footage of him because he doesn't have to.

[boxing122]

Geale should have too much for Adama. Good luck


I have a stream if you need it.

[varkolek]

Starting with UFC on FX 2, I lost the plays on Alves by Points, and didn't lose (got a draw) on Demetrius Johnson, and won the rest.

Seems like Alves by Decision was a good call and Demetrius Johnson to win wasnt, Johnson was overvalued.

Geale won, and apparently he will be fighting internationally only now. Mundine and Billy Dib have also apparently got deals to fight in the US. I don't know about Billy Dib, but Mundine and Geale should do well. Geale lost to Mundine by a majority decision before, and could possibly beat him in a rematch.

The total profit from UFC on FX 2, Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey, and Geale-Adama was 5.64 units.

[varkolek]

Juan Manuel Lopez vs Orlando Salido

Orlando Salido - 0.8 units @ 2.71
0.15 @ 2.84

Lopez by Decision - 0.95 @ 2.64

Draw - 0.025 @ 39.0 to win 0.975


Pinnacle opened Salido at about 2.7, which was much higher than the Euro books. I haven't paid attention before to what happens, but I thought bettors might hammer Salido at Pinnacle, but his odds there have improved.

I had watched a number of Juanma's fights before but haven't seen much of Salido. I think the first time they fought Juanma was such a prohibitive favourite I didn't bother looking into it, and then Salido won.

I've really only watched their first match and also Salido vs Gamboa, where Salido was knocked down twice although one was more of a slip. Salido is difficult to knock out, all his 5 ko losses happened when he was 15-20 years old. So I figure Juanma isn't going to knock him out but it is theoretically possible.

[varkolek]

Ricky Burns vs Paulus Moses

Paulus Moses - 0.47 units @ 6.7

Ricky Burns by Decision - 1.6 units @ 1.85

Draw - 0.042 @ 39


to win about 0.85 units

[varkolek]

Salido won and Ricky Burns won on points.

Profit = 1.517 units

[varkolek]

Bellator 61

I wasn't going to bet on this event, didn't think I would have time. But I had tonight free and read the thread about it, which gave me an idea who to research. Would have liked to get on these lines sooner, Rogers opened at 2.58 on Pinnacle.


Brian Rogers vs Vitor Vianna - 2.2 units @ 2.33 to win 2.926

I think Rogers has this in the bag, but Vitor's grappling ability makes him a wild card. If Vitor does get Rogers down, Rogers might be a fish out of water. I've never really seen him grapple much.


Maiquel Falcoa vs Norman Paraisy - 1.2 units @ 1.286 to win 0.3429

[varkolek]

Sergio Martinez vs Matthew Macklin

I think I bet 0.55 units @ odds better than 1.15, but I've lost record of placing the bet.

I researched Macklin before he fought Sturm, and aside from a few off nights he looked good, so I just used a distance prop for that fight. Macklin reportedly won, but Sturm was given the decision.

But I don't think Macklin beats Martinez, and thought the odds might have some value. I haven't watched any of Martinez's fights since he knocked out Paul Williams, but hopefully Martinez outclasses Macklin.

I also meant to bet on Kell Brook to beat Matthew Hatton, but didn't get around to it. I haven't seen any footage of Hatton for ages, and I wanted to do at least some research.

[illmatick]

Sitting that one out, didn't like the way Sergio fought against Barker.

[varkolek]

Brian Rogers and Maiquel Falcao won.

Profit = 3.2689

Sitting that one out, didn't like the way Sergio fought against Barker.

I just read an article saying he hurt his left elbow in that fight. But there's too many of Sergio's fights I haven't seen, so I'll try to arb out of it if I actually did place the bet. I've checked most of my accounts and can't find any bets pending. William Hill is down at the moment so I could have placed it there.

[SharpBoxing]

Nobody would look good against a Barker because of his boxing style.

I havent seen many fights of Macklin but against Sturm he got hit very easily because he stood infront of him with his gloves up and no headmovement. If he fights against Martinez like that he will get stopped.

[varkolek]

Pretty stupid, but I didn't actually place a bet on Sergio Martinez.

I knew I had bet on a heavy favourite having done minimal research, but that was $45 on Nonito Donaire to beat Vazquez Jr. I got confused because I had intended to bet on Martinez and Kell Brook as well.

SharpBoxing, you're probably right but I doubt I'll bet now. Not enough hours left to watch all those fights, and also the odds on Martinez have dropped and will probably get worse.

[varkolek]

Tomasz Adamek vs Nagy Aguilera

Tomasz Adamek by decision - 1.0 units @ 2.38

[varkolek]

Danny Garcia vs Erik Morales

Erik Morales - 3.05 units @ 3.95

I was going to hedge with Garcia by decision, risking 4.5 units total, and losing 1.5 instead of 3 if Morales lost. But I figure losing 3 units isn't that much worse than losing 1.5, so I'm probably going to let this ride.

Morales missed weight and gave up his belt rather than sweat off the extra 2 lb, but gave a reasonable explanation for this, saying he could get fatigued by sweating off the extra weight and would rather save the fight than save the belt.

There's a few variables, like I haven't seen Garcia's most recent fight against Kendall Holt, who is good. And Garcia is good at body punching, which Barrera hurt Morales with. And also I haven't seen any of Morales' come back fights except against Maidana.

But I think Morales will win. I thought he beat Maidana, and can only assume the judges gave it to Maidana due to work rate. David Diaz also narrowly beat Morales with pressure, and Barrera has a high punch volume also. Garcia has a pretty low work rate, so it will have to be about skill.

[Vaughany]

Got Morales at +315 on sportbet and took Garcia at -275 on boylesports. 4 units profit if Morales wins. BOL

[varkolek]

Adamek won by decision but Morales lost.

Loss = 1.62 units.

I should have bet more conservatively or hedged with Garcia by decision, since he wasn't going to get a knock out, but I wanted a big win. Morales had nice odds.

I thought Nagy might do just enough to prevent getting knocked out.

[varkolek]

Alexander Bakhtin vs Nehomar Cermeno

Fight goes distance - 2.75 units @ 1.49

Cermeno by KO - 0.14 @ 12 and 0.16 @ 11


Bakhtin is a huge favourite in this and I think Cermeno is undervalued, he's a pretty good fighter.

I've been pretty rushed today, so didn't even watch the whole fight between Bakhtin and Nick Otieno, but I doubt Bakhtin is going to ko Cermeno. I doubt Cermeno will get a stoppage either but the odds are high enough to cover for that outcome. Just hope there isn't a stoppage due to cuts or anything.