Originally posted by Nick The Greek
Hopefully people have realized by now that country's striking is a bit overrated. Yes he KO'd schaub all quick and blasted struve, but I am still not sold on it. It ain't bad, but I wouldn't call it good. He has a punchers chance in this fight - which is a big chance against a glass chin like mirko.
However, as long as mirko keeps this technical and doesn't get sucked into a slugging contest where country is close enough to land that big one, then he should win this. I can't think of many instances where country used a combo, he rarely follows up with his punches... a strategy of landing the one big punch, overhand after overhand, is a technical striker's dream. Mirko isn't the same striker he used to be, but he is light years ahead of country. If he keeps it technical, and keeps it rather boring unfortunately, then he can pepper his way to a ud. If he keeps it fundamental he should have no problem out striking country.
I am not worried the least bit about country's ground game / tds. Yes he is a jitz artist at base, but we rarely see it and his tds are quite ugly - mirko has stuffed shots and popped back up from guys who have way better wrestling and athleticism. I will be biting my words and will feel like an idiot if country does get a sub or grinds to a ud, but I find this very unlikely... this fight plays out on the feet which ultimately favors mirko, and favors him a lot imo...
In my breakdown in my head, this is a favorable style for mirko. He has all the tools to beat country and obviously his biggest enemy is his chin - which I hope he does everything to protect. Being that this is supposedly his last fight win / lose, I am a bit scared that he might go in there to put on a show, brawl / slug it out / technicality goes out the window, and he ends up layed out on the canvas again. Once again, my biggest concern with mirko, is well - mirko! The guy seems like he's lost his mental edge. So who knows which mirko will show up. This is what's keeping me from making a nice dog play on him. Still making some sort of str8 play with him, just not going crazy and will probably back it up with nelson by ko.
Either way gl if you go with country. Hioki is my biggest lock. He will sub roop in the first round imo... Roop's sub defense is not that great and hioki is just nasty with his grappling. If diaz / penn turns into a 5 rounder, which I give about 1% of happening, then I will really like Mr. Diaz and will probably make a nice play on him. In a 3 rounder, I think bj gives us a boring 1st and 2nd laying in diaz' guard, then diaz wins a boxing match in the 3rd as bj's strenght and gas dwindles, and diaz loses a ud that most people think he should have won. Also like scotty J depending on where his line is at, but wouldn't call him a lock by any means.
