UFC 137 Locks?

**Vaughany** · 10-19-11, 10:59 AM

Brandon Vera at anything better than -250

**Spaceman Spiff** · 10-19-11, 11:01 AM

I think Nelson and Cerrone have the best chances at winning, along with Vera. I think Hioki deserves a mention as well, but you never know how those Japanese crossovers are going to perform.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 10-19-11, 11:39 AM

I'm a huge Cerrone fan, but think that fight is gonna be more competitive than people are giving Siver credit for. If I could've landed the Cerrone +135 opener, f*ck yeah, but not at current odds -- wouldn't dare call that a lock.

**SATERSTYLE** · 10-19-11, 11:50 AM

Think Vera has a better shot at winning than any of the other juiced up faves

**Vaughany** · 10-19-11, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I'm a huge Cerrone fan, but think that fight is gonna be more competitive than people are giving Siver credit for. If I could've landed the Cerrone +135 opener, f*ck yeah, but not at current odds -- wouldn't dare call that a lock.

Agreed, fortunately I got the opener. But value is with Siver at this point, though I'd still only play Siver by decision

**Ewoi** · 10-19-11, 12:02 PM

The lock of the card is Scottie Jorgensen to beat Jeff Curran. He is better everywhere except BJJ, but I don't think Curran can submit Scott from his back. Odds will be -400 or more.

**ghost kid** · 10-19-11, 12:13 PM

Probably should wait for all the odds before stating an opinion. You might be pleasantly surprised.

**TheCalculator** · 10-19-11, 12:55 PM

I hope to FAWK it ain't -400.

Originally posted by Ewoi

The lock of the card is Scottie Jorgensen to beat Jeff Curran. He is better everywhere except BJJ, but I don't think Curran can submit Scott from his back. Odds will be -400 or more.

**gabe** · 10-19-11, 01:19 PM

Brandon Vera, Matt Mitrione, Ramsey Nijem - 3 way parlay that will hit!

**Nick The Greek** · 10-19-11, 01:43 PM

Hard to envision Big Country losing to Mirko.

**TheCalculator** · 10-19-11, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Brandon Vera, Matt Mitrione, Ramsey Nijem - 3 way parlay that will hit!

I like this one -- however I wouldn't call Mitrione a lock. I think he will but he could get dropped.

I think Nijem is closer to a lock than Mitrione.

**TheCalculator** · 10-19-11, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by Nick The Greek

Hard to envision Big Country losing to Mirko.

I agree -- Mirko might squeeze a decision. However -- it's almost impossible for him to KO Nelson IMO.

**v1y** · 10-19-11, 01:47 PM

vera and jorgensen for me.

**gabe** · 10-19-11, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I like this one -- however I wouldn't call Mitrione a lock. I think he will but he could get dropped.

I think Nijem is closer to a lock than Mitrione.

Nothing on this card is a lock, the closest to it is Vera... but those 3 + maybe Nick Diaz = a solid parlay

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Ewoi

The lock of the card is Scottie Jorgensen to beat Jeff Curran. He is better everywhere except BJJ, but I don't think Curran can submit Scott from his back. Odds will be -400 or more.

Beat me to it. This is the pick of the night and at less than -300, I'm all over it.

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Brandon Vera, Matt Mitrione, Ramsey Nijem - 3 way parlay that will hit!

Agreed. Personally, I would substitute Jorgensen for Mitrione in the parlay and bet Meathead solo, but hey, that's just me.

**gabe** · 10-19-11, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Agreed. Personally, I would substitute Jorgensen for Mitrione in the parlay and bet Meathead solo, but hey, that's just me.

I'm actually leanings towards Curan. I know I'm alone on this.

**urge2kill** · 10-19-11, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Probably should wait for all the odds before stating an opinion. You might be pleasantly surprised.

agreed. whats the upside to posting an opinion before the lines out?

**TheCalculator** · 10-19-11, 03:08 PM

Same -- I'm hoping he opens at -200.

Originally posted by proposition joe

Beat me to it. This is the pick of the night and at less than -300, I'm all over it.

**TheCalculator** · 10-19-11, 03:09 PM

To get ready to pounce for the lines when they come out.

Originally posted by urge2kill

agreed. whats the upside to posting an opinion before the lines out?

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by urge2kill

agreed. whats the upside to posting an opinion before the lines out?

I like to get an idea of where other people are leaning so that I can try to predict which direction the lines will be moving, if at all. The lines change fast so knowing if the initial odds are at their peak or if I should hold off until closer to fight time can over time really increase profit.

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

Same -- I'm hoping he opens at -200.

That would be sick!! I'm not too optimistic about the price being that low though.

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I'm actually leanings towards Curan. I know I'm alone on this.

Interesting. How do you see it playing out?

**ghost kid** · 10-19-11, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by urge2kill

agreed. whats the upside to posting an opinion before the lines out?

Indeed. Right with you. 100%. We get it....but many don't. Also, many don't have the confidence of their own convictions.

**TheCalculator** · 10-19-11, 03:56 PM

There is one potential downside... Odd makers reading these boards and taking our picks into consideration. Is that what you guys are referring too?

Originally posted by ghost kid

Indeed. Right with you. 100%. We get it....but many don't. Also, many don't have the confidence of their own convictions.

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Indeed. Right with you. 100%. We get it....but many don't. Also, many don't have the confidence of their own convictions.

I've won roughly $150 betting in my life. I don't think the oddsmakers are drooling at the mouth to read my assessments of the fights.

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 04:00 PM

edited

**NunyaBidness** · 10-19-11, 04:10 PM

Easy money this card I guess, current locks in this thread:
Vera
Nelson
Cerrone
Jorgensen
Curran
Mitrione
Nijem

Wonder why 5d won't let me parlay them all. They must be afraid of the locks!

**proposition joe** · 10-19-11, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Easy money this card I guess, current locks in this thread:
Vera
Nelson
Cerrone
Jorgensen
Curran
Mitrione
Nijem

Wonder why 5d won't let me parlay them all. They must be afraid of the locks!

Probably won't let you parlay two guys to win the same fight..

**ghost kid** · 10-19-11, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Easy money this card I guess, current locks in this thread:
Vera
Nelson
Cerrone
Jorgensen
Curran
Mitrione
Nijem

Wonder why 5d won't let me parlay them all. They must be afraid of the locks!

Well played sir. Well played.

**urge2kill** · 10-19-11, 05:17 PM

you guys are just stating reasons for others to post early leans

**gabe** · 10-19-11, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I've won roughly $150 betting in my life. I don't think the oddsmakers are drooling at the mouth to read my assessments of the fights.

hahahahaha

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Easy money this card I guess, current locks in this thread:
Vera
Nelson
Cerrone
Jorgensen
Curran
Mitrione
Nijem

Wonder why 5d won't let me parlay them all. They must be afraid of the locks!

Brandon Vera is the only thing closest to a lock

**FlashinLeather** · 10-19-11, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Nick The Greek

Hard to envision Big Country losing to Mirko.

thisssssss

**MMAbetMASTA** · 10-19-11, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by Spaceman Spiff

I think Nelson and Cerrone have the best chances at winning, along with Vera. I think Hioki deserves a mention as well, but you never know how those Japanese crossovers are going to perform.

I think with regard to mirko's surprising odds, that he is the best upset dog on the card. I think calling nelson a lock is foolish (especially paying that juicy price) and I won't be the least bit surprised if mirko wins an easy sparring, I mean, striking match

Either way gl if you go with country.

Hioki is my biggest lock. He will sub roop in the first round imo... Roop's sub defense is not that great and hioki is just nasty with his grappling.

If diaz / penn turns into a 5 rounder, which I give about 1% of happening, then I will really like Mr. Diaz and will probably make a nice play on him. In a 3 rounder, I think bj gives us a boring 1st and 2nd laying in diaz' guard, then diaz wins a boxing match in the 3rd as bj's strenght and gas dwindles, and diaz loses a ud that most people think he should have won.

Also like scotty J depending on where his line is at, but wouldn't call him a lock by any means.