picks for cruz vs johnson

[gabe]

. This shit is funny. You the one who offered that bet. Now you don't want it.

are you retarded? i offered a bet? lol i got offered the bet, i only suggested prices

[gabe]

You were offered 200, you countered with +1000, I accepted. You can't raise it now.

a bet is never locked in until you lock it in. if you don't give me a fair bet...scratch that...if you don't give me a bet that's in my favor, then no thanks.

i'm sure the return is greater than 2k/+1000

[snake11eyes]

are you retarded? i offered a bet? lol i got offered the bet, i only suggested prices

Yes by putting Deal? at the end of your statement you are offering a bet to someone whether you think so or not.

[NunyaBidness]

a bet is never locked in until you lock it in. if you don't give me a fair bet...scratch that...if you don't give me a bet that's in my favor, then no thanks.

i'm sure the return is greater than 2k/+1000

LOL @ U

You're claiming to have made this parlay, so you should know what the fair price is. Unless you're suggesting other people make it, but don't have the guts to make a bet with a 71% edge yourself.

Anyway, at your 73% chance of occurring, the fair vig free price is you laying me -270. So, I accept, your $5400 to win my $2000.

[gabe]

LOL @ U

You're claiming to have made this parlay, so you should know what the fair price is. Unless you're suggesting other people make it, but don't have the guts to make a bet with a 71% edge yourself.

Anyway, at your 73% chance of occurring, the fair vig free price is you laying me -270. So, I accept, your $5400 to win my $2000.

No, I never claimed to make the parlay. I recommended the parlay for a play, since I thought it'd be worth to lay a little something on for a nice return, since I didn't think the odds were bad. Yes, I personally would have made the parlay myself, but as I've mentioned before, my bookie no longer accepts parlays for UFC and I don't use 5dimes. So, just straight bets this week, unless I work things out with 5dimes.

[gabe]

Yes by putting Deal? at the end of your statement you are offering a bet to someone whether you think so or not.

i guess you're right. i'm just lucky he didn't say "deal." in return--- i would have been screwed in an unfair bet!

[SATERSTYLE]

my previous msg pretty much explains it. simple math, son. i start by taking what % i think each fighter has of taking the fight then adding them up then including possibilities like poor judges decisions or losing a fight that was winning due to a deep cut or injury, etc.

I am so glad they teach actual math at my school

[cheeese]

[Grabaka]

Dont worry gabe. Nunyabidness accepts parlays.

[MMAbetMASTA]

good luck-- yeah, brenneman/rumble was hardest to pick. i was leaning towards rumble for a while.

It is a tough one... My mind / 'on paper pick' say johnson, but my gut says brenneman.

Made a few risky parlays, this is my money one tho:

906138539/30/11 10:06pm-$50.00$102.611 Wager(s) Placed90613853-1$50.00$376.94Pending3 Team ParlayPending10/1/11 6:10pm UFC Fighting 1802 Josh Neer -265* vs Keith Wisniewski Pending10/1/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1011 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision Pending10/1/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1207 Brenneman wins by 3 round decision +286* vs Not Brenneman by 3 round decision.

Got a couple others that are smaller, one where I hedged johnson str8 up at -200 in place on brenneman (I think that is the appropriate use of the word 'hedge' right? haha I don't 'hedge' too much as I don't really play parlays). Also got a small one where I hedged with weinski in place of neer. The above is what I'm banking on tho!

No str8s for me on this card. Keeping it simple, I think I'm risking around $90 total, so hopefully I'll make something or at least break even.

GL everyone!

[bogbat]

Starting to think this guy is some kind of reincarnation of Jesuseastsnubs.

[gabe]

It is a tough one... My mind / 'on paper pick' say johnson, but my gut says brenneman.

Made a few risky parlays, this is my money one tho:

906138539/30/11 10:06pm-$50.00$102.611 Wager(s) Placed90613853-1$50.00$376.94Pending3 Team ParlayPending10/1/11 6:10pm UFC Fighting 1802 Josh Neer -265* vs Keith Wisniewski Pending10/1/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1011 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision Pending10/1/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1207 Brenneman wins by 3 round decision +286* vs Not Brenneman by 3 round decision.

Got a couple others that are smaller, one where I hedged johnson str8 up at -200 in place on brenneman (I think that is the appropriate use of the word 'hedge' right? haha I don't 'hedge' too much as I don't really play parlays). Also got a small one where I hedged with weinski in place of neer. The above is what I'm banking on tho!

No str8s for me on this card. Keeping it simple, I think I'm risking around $90 total, so hopefully I'll make something or at least break even.

GL everyone!

Dont worry gabe. Nunyabidness accepts parlays.

if he offers me a good deal, i'll take it. i jumped ahead of the gun by saying 200 for 2k, i realized that was stupid immediately after.

[gabe]

It is a tough one... My mind / 'on paper pick' say johnson, but my gut says brenneman.

Made a few risky parlays, this is my money one tho:

906138539/30/11 10:06pm-$50.00$102.611 Wager(s) Placed90613853-1$50.00$376.94Pending3 Team ParlayPending10/1/11 6:10pm UFC Fighting 1802 Josh Neer -265* vs Keith Wisniewski Pending10/1/11 10:30pm Props Fighting 1011 Cruz wins by 5 round decision -165* vs Not Cruz by 5 round decision Pending10/1/11 9:30pm Props Fighting 1207 Brenneman wins by 3 round decision +286* vs Not Brenneman by 3 round decision.

Got a couple others that are smaller, one where I hedged johnson str8 up at -200 in place on brenneman (I think that is the appropriate use of the word 'hedge' right? haha I don't 'hedge' too much as I don't really play parlays). Also got a small one where I hedged with weinski in place of neer. The above is what I'm banking on tho!

No str8s for me on this card. Keeping it simple, I think I'm risking around $90 total, so hopefully I'll make something or at least break even.

GL everyone!

You really think the Cruz fight will go five rounds? I don't know, I smell a knock out within 2-3.

[gabe]

Starting to think this guy is some kind of reincarnation of Jesuseastsnubs.

Someone you used to perform oral on, I can only assume.

[gabe]

don't read too much into the % -- it only suggests how confident i am in the play hitting. i understand that some of you see me write up a % and get a boner--- just take it somewhere else, fellas.

[cheeese]

if he offers me a good deal, i'll take it. i jumped ahead of the gun by saying 200 for 2k, i realized that was stupid immediately after.

Immediately after or immediately after he snap called you?

[Educ8d Degener8]

i get 2k cash if it hits.

you get 200 if it doesn't.

deal?

That is the EASIEST arb EVVVVVVVVVER.

Where the fock is Vaughany at?

[gabe]

Immediately after or immediately after he snap called you?

immediately after i posted... what difference does it make? when i make bets, there's always a confirmation button after the first submit button-- that exists for a reason.

you guys are too bored and bite into every little thing... my opinions remain my opinions... get a life... let it go.

[Vaughany]

That is the EASIEST arb EVVVVVVVVVER.

Where the fock is Vaughany at?

hahahahaa This shit is hilarious, what the fuuuck is going on!

[gabe]

hahahahaa This shit is hilarious, what the fuuuck is going on!

i'm getting shit for being 73% confident in the fact that my 6 picks will all hit

i say the trigger is never worth pulling if you don't think the odds are at least 55% in your favor

also, i think some of these guys have a crush on me.

[NunyaBidness]

i'm getting shit for being 73% confident in the fact that my 6 picks will all hit

i say the trigger is never worth pulling if you don't think the odds are at least 55% in your favor

You're very confused. You should stop betting, read a few books and then get back to it.

It's obvious you've heard somewhere that great cappers pick at 55%, which only has to deal with beating spreads. (And almost nobody can do that anyway, 1 in 10,000 maybe)

You might be the greatest troll of all time.

[v1y]

i'm getting shit for being 73% confident in the fact that my 6 picks will all hit

i say the trigger is never worth pulling if you don't think the odds are at least 55% in your favor

Not sure if serious...

If i'm making a 20-1 play, being 10% confident in it is good enough.

[bogbat]

[gabe]

Not sure if serious...

If i'm making a 20-1 play, being 10% confident in it is good enough.

lol yeah, 10% confidence is certainly good enough for a 12 team parlay, but i was talking about straight bets or few team parlays

[gabe]

You're very confused. You should stop betting, read a few books and then get back to it.

It's obvious you've heard somewhere that great cappers pick at 55%, which only has to deal with beating spreads. (And almost nobody can do that anyway, 1 in 10,000 maybe)

You might be the greatest troll of all time.

I don't believe there are any "great cappers" -- I think if your capping percentage is 55%, then you stink. I haven't found a single capper online with a better MLB record than mine. my record has been above 70% the past three seasons.

I do A LOT better betting than you do. So, maybe you should quit, eh?

"You might be the greatest troll of all time." lol sticks and stones may break my bones, but your online nerd-lingo will never hurt me.

your deadbeat parents are the "trolls," for raising such a shit-head who can't respect other peoples opinions, conclusions, and ways of getting to those conclusions. i'm pretty sure the way you get your %'s has been getting you lots of losses...and i can't say the same for me...so fk off.

[NunyaBidness]

I don't believe there are any "great cappers" -- I think if your capping percentage is 55%, then you stink. I haven't found a single capper online with a better MLB record than mine. my record has been above 70% the past three seasons.

No, you don't. You're just a liar. If you're picking at 70% against -110 lines over 3 seasons you have hundreds of millions of dollars. The only thing limiting your growth is bumping into limits at every sportsbook. You're moving lines everywhere you go.

No one picks at 70%, no one. Not Billy Walters, not RAS, not Haralabob, no one.

[illmatick]

70% isn't bad. The upper tier guys shoot for around 80%, though.

[NunyaBidness]

your deadbeat parents are the "trolls," for raising such a shit-head who can't respect other peoples opinions, conclusions, and ways of getting to those conclusions. i'm pretty sure the way you get your %'s has been getting you lots of losses...and i can't say the same for me...so fk off.

You should read the book Idiot America.

[gabe]

No, you don't. You're just a liar. If you're picking at 70% against -110 lines over 3 seasons you have hundreds of millions of dollars. The only thing limiting your growth is bumping into limits at every sportsbook. You're moving lines everywhere you go.

No one picks at 70%, no one. Not Billy Walters, not RAS, not Haralabob, no one.

No, I haven't made millions of dollars lol I spend money too- more than I make lol---

the fact that you don't believe me only means you are impressed by me, so i am taking it as a compliment. thank you. <3

[gabe]

You should read the book Idiot America.

After I get done with Ham on Rye, The ****-Up, and Confederacy of Dunces

[gabe]

I'm great with NFL, too. If you wanna buy my picks, I would be happy to pay you back if I don't hit above 55% of them. (done better than that over past 2 seasons)

same goes for my picks for the MLB playoffs.

think about it, runyamouth.

[MMAbetMASTA]

You really think the Cruz fight will go five rounds? I don't know, I smell a knock out within 2-3.

I'll be kicking myself in the ass if either guy finishes itd, especially cruz as I have him by 5rnd D on a few parlays.

In all honsety tho I don't see a KO happening from either guy. Neither have been stopped by strikes, I don't even think I've seen mighty wobbled. Cruz has done the chicken dance but he recovers quickly and faber hits much harder than mighty. Cruz also hasn't finsished a fight from strikes in 3 years... I see the same thing as usual, Cruz doing the river dance to a UD.

[NunyaBidness]

Shane Roller

Paul Sass

Yves Edwards

Charlie Brenneman

Pat Barry

Dominick Cruz


Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.

Guess we found that 27% pretty quick, huh?

[gabe]

Guess we found that 27% pretty quick, huh?

lollll didn't take you a minute for the fight to end to respond... that was a bullshit stop. ref is terrible.

[NunyaBidness]

lollll didn't take you a minute for the fight to end to respond... that was a bullshit stop. ref is terrible.

Doesn't matter. Bad judges, bad refs, all need to be part of your handicapping process.