picks for cruz vs johnson

[gabe]

Shane Roller

Paul Sass

Yves Edwards

Charlie Brenneman

Pat Barry

Dominick Cruz


Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.

[urge2kill]

73% chance hahaha

[Kaladarus]

I'll take a shot with your parlay at 73%.

[gabe]

73% chance hahaha

my own personal numbers. some of the picks are a lot more solid than others, altogether i estimate a 6 team parlay to have a 73% chance of hitting.

i hit a 6-fight parlay a couple weeks ago, but my chances for that hitting i had estimated surely above 80%.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Shane Roller

Paul Sass

Yves Edwards

Charlie Brenneman

Pat Barry

Dominick Cruz


Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.

I agree with all these picks, except for I am slightly leaning toward rumble still (although I am planning to make a parlay where I got brenneman as my money pick, so I'll be rooting for charlie haha, however my 'on paper pick' is rumble). Wouldn't parlay them as one, perhaps chop them up a bit / less fights, but I have the same picks for each fight. Gl, this has a decent chance of hitting. I'll post my parlay when I make it, have a few 3 fight parlays I'm looking at.

[urge2kill]

my own personal numbers. some of the picks are a lot more solid than others, altogether i estimate a 6 team parlay to have a 73% chance of hitting.

i hit a 6-fight parlay a couple weeks ago, but my chances for that hitting i had estimated surely above 80%.

I'm really curious how you came up with 73%.

[gabe]

I agree with all these picks, except for I am slightly leaning toward rumble still (although I am planning to make a parlay where I got brenneman as my money pick, so I'll be rooting for charlie haha, however my 'on paper pick' is rumble). Wouldn't parlay them as one, perhaps chop them up a bit / less fights, but I have the same picks for each fight. Gl, this has a decent chance of hitting. I'll post my parlay when I make it, have a few 3 fight parlays I'm looking at.

good luck-- yeah, brenneman/rumble was hardest to pick. i was leaning towards rumble for a while.

[terpkeg]

Shane Roller

Paul Sass

Yves Edwards

Charlie Brenneman

Pat Barry

Dominick Cruz


Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.

Not trying to bust your balls here, but if your numbers were anywhere close to accurate and you had only Charlie Brenneman at 73% chance to win the fight by himself, you should be hammering it. But your adding 5 more fights!! You math cannot be anywhere close to correct. What do you put everyone at, -1000 each? I should know the math, but I forget it. If thats the case, play them all straight.

[gabe]

I'm really curious how you came up with 73%.

yeah, you sure do strike me as a "curious" guy.

my previous msg pretty much explains it. simple math, son. i start by taking what % i think each fighter has of taking the fight then adding them up then including possibilities like poor judges decisions or losing a fight that was winning due to a deep cut or injury, etc.

[gabe]

Not trying to bust your balls here, but if your numbers were anywhere close to accurate and you had only Charlie Brenneman at 73% chance to win the fight by himself, you should be hammering it. But your adding 5 more fights!! You math cannot be anywhere close to correct. What do you put everyone at, -1000 each? I should know the math, but I forget it. If thats the case, play them all straight.

Why are you assuming I'm not playing them straight? I play all my picks straight.

[NunyaBidness]

Not trying to bust your balls here, but if your numbers were anywhere close to accurate and you had only Charlie Brenneman at 73% chance to win the fight by himself, you should be hammering it. But your adding 5 more fights!! You math cannot be anywhere close to correct. What do you put everyone at, -1000 each? I should know the math, but I forget it. If thats the case, play them all straight.

at -1000 each, the bet only wins 56% of the time, clearly you're underestimating the surety of this mans capping ability. 73% is equivilant to -1900 across the board, although, they could all be -9900 dogs with one favorite thrown in for spice.

[NunyaBidness]

Shane Roller

Paul Sass

Yves Edwards

Charlie Brenneman

Pat Barry

Dominick Cruz


Parlay the six. Has a 73% chance of hitting.

Getting 20-1 on something that occurs greater than half the time is in sell your house territory.

At current market value this parlay hits under 1% of the time. Granted the books are off sometimes, but not by the orders of magnitude you're thinking.

[gabe]

at -1000 each, the bet only wins 56% of the time, clearly you're underestimating the surety of this mans capping ability. 73% is equivilant to -1900 across the board, although, they could all be -9900 dogs with one favorite thrown in for spice.

i'd be willing to bet anything the way i do my math has gotten me more wins than the way you do yours.

if you're betting that many heavy favorites and you think your shot of hitting it is 56%, then i suggest you make better picks, buddy.

[NunyaBidness]

yeah, you sure do strike me as a "curious" guy.

my previous msg pretty much explains it. simple math, son. i start by taking what % i think each fighter has of taking the fight then adding them up then including possibilities like poor judges decisions or losing a fight that was winning due to a deep cut or injury, etc.

Ahhh! There's the problem, you're adding up the probabilities. You need multiplication.

You: "Cruz wins 23% of the time, all the other guys win 10% of the time. OMG, this is gonna win 73% of the time!"

Add a couple more guys you'll be over 100% in no time.

[NunyaBidness]

i'd be willing to bet anything the way i do my math has gotten me more wins than the way you do yours.

if you're betting that many heavy favorites and you think your shot of hitting it is 56%, then i suggest you make better picks, buddy.

My degree is in maths.

I do make better picks. But making picks is the least important part of winning at sportsbetting. Bottom of the barrel.

[gabe]

Getting 20-1 on something that occurs greater than half the time is in sell your house territory.

At current market value this parlay hits under 1% of the time. Granted the books are off sometimes, but not by the orders of magnitude you're thinking.

You're saying this has less than a 1% chance of hitting? Wow. I guess the 6 fight parlay I hit for the Silva card had a 2% chance. I AM THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NunyaBidness]

You're saying this has less than a 1% chance of hitting? Wow. I guess the 6 fight parlay I hit for the Silva card had a 2% chance. I AM THE MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1) I didn't say every 6 man parlay has a 1% chance. You could find numerous 6 man parlays that would be 10% or greater, that doesn't mean there is value there.

2) Low probability events occur all the time. Something having 1% chance is far from never occurring. But if you're getting 20-1 on something that requires 99-1 to make a profit you are throwing away money.

3) Winning a bet does not automatically make that bet a good one in perspective. Kongo > Barry for example.

[gabe]

Ahhh! There's the problem, you're adding up the probabilities. You need multiplication.

You: "Cruz wins 23% of the time, all the other guys win 10% of the time. OMG, this is gonna win 73% of the time!"

Add a couple more guys you'll be over 100% in no time.

No, that's not how I do it. My numbers have been working just fine for me. This isn't up for debate, dude. I gave out my picks and what I think the chances of all of them hitting are. Take it for what it is, there's nothing else to discuss. I'm not going to show you my algebra homework from the 8th grade.

[v1y]

So can I bet with you that the parlay won't hit, and you'll give me -200 on it?

[gabe]

1) I didn't say every 6 man parlay has a 1% chance. You could find numerous 6 man parlays that would be 10% or greater, that doesn't mean there is value there.

2) Low probability events occur all the time. Something having 1% chance is far from never occurring. But if you're getting 20-1 on something that requires 99-1 to make a profit you are throwing away money.

3) Winning a bet does not automatically make that bet a good one in perspective. Kongo > Barry for example.

Dude, seriously, if you think your chances of parlays you make have a 1% chance of hitting, you really shouldn't be making bets.

[gabe]

So can I bet with you that the parlay won't hit, and you'll give me -200 on it?

i get 2k cash if it hits.

you get 200 if it doesn't.

deal?

[NunyaBidness]

No, that's not how I do it. My numbers have been working just fine for me. This isn't up for debate, dude. I gave out my picks and what I think the chances of all of them hitting are. Take it for what it is, there's nothing else to discuss. I'm not going to show you my algebra homework from the 8th grade.

Picks don't matter. Maths is all that matters. And your 8th grade algebra won't cut it. Should've gone to 9th grade.

[NunyaBidness]

Dude, seriously, if you think your chances of parlays you make have a 1% chance of hitting, you really shouldn't be making bets.

I don't make parlays.

[NunyaBidness]

i get 2k cash if it hits.

you get 200 if it doesn't.

deal?

I'll take this bet, and more, if you want it. Where are you located?

[gabe]

Picks don't matter. Maths is all that matters. And your 8th grade algebra won't cut it. Should've gone to 9th grade.

Picks don't matter? tell that to my W column

[urge2kill]

Adding up the percentages

[gabe]

I'll take this bet, and more, if you want it. Where are you located?

los angeles. you?

[gabe]

Adding up the percentages

your parents failed you.

[NunyaBidness]

Picks don't matter? tell that to my W column

Picks don't matter.

That's why I can beat NFL year after year after year, while having never seen a game.

[NunyaBidness]

los angeles. you?

Other side of the country. I can arrange an escrow however. Probably not worth the time as I'm sure you won't step up.

[gabe]

Picks don't matter.

That's why I can beat NFL year after year after year, while having never seen a game.

Wow, you must be rich. Can I interest you in some diamonds?

[NunyaBidness]

Wow, you must be rich. Can I interest you in some diamonds?

What a surprise. You backed down.

[gabe]

What a surprise. You backed down.

Hey man, just trying to sell you some diamonds.

I'd love to take this bet with you, but with a more accurate return. What's a $200 return for all 6 on 5dimes?

[snake11eyes]

. This shit is funny. You the one who offered that bet. Now you don't want it.

[NunyaBidness]

Hey man, just trying to sell you some diamonds.

I'd love to take this bet with you, but with a more accurate return. What's a $200 return for all 6 on 5dimes?

You were offered 200, you countered with +1000, I accepted. You can't raise it now.