UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones (March 19, 2011)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Date: Mar 19, 2011

Location: Newark, N.J.
Venue: Prudential Center


MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view)


Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Jon Jones (for light-heavyweight title)
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland
Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Nate Marquardt
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

Luiz Cane vs. Eliot Marshall
Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Njokuani

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau

PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland
Raphael Assuncao vs. Erik Koch*
Nick Catone vs. Dan Miller

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[bogbat]

Quite long odds on this card and I don't see value anywhere. Miller, Faber and Marquardt parlay (+140) would most likely hit.

[The HOFF]

Should be some decent bets on the prelims.

[thesox0311]

Yeah im loving this card from top to bottom.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

kinda suprised the that Joseph Benavidez fight isn't on Facebook or Spike portion.

[Eccocide]

kinda suprised the that Joseph Benavidez fight isn't on Facebook or Spike portion.

Yeah, its a tough card to get a spot on. I do think that fight deserves to be on the Spike card over Cane/Marshall.

[MMAdisciple]

Schaub/Benavidez/Barboza parlay sounding real good. 2u on Schaub at -260 and 2u on Schaub/Davis parlay both at -260.

[MMAdisciple]

Still no line for Benavidez. Akiyama out but then I heard he wasn't so I don't know. At first thought Miller is the better fight for the orange cream-sickle; Dan is known for fighting and losing to the best in the division, but he's young so will that stop and at what point? Hard to say but Nate's inconsistent as hell, he was a no-bet either way for me.

[cyberinvestor]

Jon Jones is really good but does he deserve to be a -180?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Dan Miller vs Nate Marquardt booked with Yoshihiro Akiyama out due to Japan tsunami

http://www.mmamania.com/2011/3/12/2045858/ufc-128-dan-miller-vs-nate-marquardt-booked-with-yoshihiro-akiyama

[Mr.Kitty]

Benavidez by submission doesnt look too shabby at first glance, need to watch some footage and obviously wait for the odds.

[MadTiger]

Main is packed with entertaining fighters.

Hell, they should have swapped the Facebook and SpikeTV matchups. The Facebook matchups are more compelling in my opinion.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

SBR should get a contest for this, were a week out

[RaiderNation MMA]

i really like kamal shalorus here! and edson barboza is as lock as it gets

[Varker]

I wonder what odds are for marquardt now that he's fighting dan.

[Vaughany]

I wonder what odds are for marquardt now that he's fighting dan.

-305 currently, came out at -175 tho!

[Jordan23]

Jon Jones is really good but does he deserve to be a -180?

Well you'll have your answer in about a week. That's for sure!

[GunShard]

I noticed that the public is dumping their money on Shogun.
The value of Shogun is going down, while the value of Jones is going up.

[NickTheGrip]

I like Pyle at current prices. If Almeida cant get him now his options drop off. I think Pyle is good enough to stop the takedowns.

[LearningTree]

Jon Jones is really good but does he deserve to be a -180?

Probably not but if he wins...his lines in the future are going to be ridiculous.

[Vaughany]

Koch out as -170 favorite against Assuncao and now at -185...I expected Koch to come out as a slight dog in this one

[MMAdisciple]

Not taking Benavidez at that price.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

I like Pyle at current prices. If Almeida cant get him now his options drop off. I think Pyle is good enough to stop the takedowns.

Agreed, Pyle looked very good in his last fight. I'll take him as a dog here

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Spike TV's debut airing of "Countdown to UFC 128" netted 406,000 viewers

I wonder how high the Jon Jones hype will push PPV buys, what are the predictions

recent cards

UFC 127 Penn/Fitch 250-300K
UFC 126 Silva/Belfot 750K
UFC 125 Edgar/Maynard 300K
UFC 124 GSP/Koscheck 875K
UFC 123 Rampage/Machida 500K
UFC 121 Lesnar/Valasquez 1 million

[Vaughany]

I predict 1,000,001 buys.

[MMAdisciple]

2u/Schaub -260
1u/Schaub KO +135
1u/Barboza -245
1u/Schaub-Barboza-Benavidez parlay
1u/Wineland +355
.25u/Schaub-Wineland-Barboza-Benavidez parlay

[freelee]

anybody have an opinion on the cane/marshall fight

[sirchadwick1]

I know Urijah should win the fight... but does anyone see some nice value in Wineland by decision at +1200? (bodog) He's pretty sharp on his feet and durable. It's possible that he keeps off his back here w/ his wrestling background. I don't see him submitting or KOing Faber, but possibly a bad decision by the judges... I'm making a play there.

[Vaughany]

I know Urijah should win the fight... but does anyone see some nice value in Wineland by decision at +1200? (bodog) He's pretty sharp on his feet and durable. It's possible that he keeps off his back here w/ his wrestling background. I don't see him submitting or KOing Faber, but possibly a bad decision by the judges... I'm making a play there.

Yeahhh I made a small play on it last week at +800 because I thought that was reasonable value so +1200 for sure

[sirchadwick1]

Glad you're with me there Vaughany. BOL tomorrow night w/ your plays.
I have a gut feeling that Barboza by sub at +1200 hits.

[KCJMAC]

Anyone like Marquardt for KO of the night at plus 2100 on 5D?

[Vaughany]

Anyone like Marquardt for KO of the night at plus 2100 on 5D?

Yeah I spotted tht...it is tempting.

[Vaughany]

Glad you're with me there Vaughany. BOL tomorrow night w/ your plays.
I have a gut feeling that Barboza by sub at +1200 hits.

Cheers dude, Good luck too

Be a nice bonus if Barboza by sub hits. The Armory is actually more BJJ orientated with lots of legit Black-belts coaching there such as Eduardo Guedes, Raphael Chaves, Rodrigo Cavaca, Thiago Abreu, and Marcus Almeida so with Barboza being a purple belt and working constantly with those kind of dudes I think his ground game should be good enough to submit Njokuani. He also alludes to the fight going to the ground again in interview on UFC.com....

"I think every fight in UFC is a test for my Muay Thai, but this is not a Muay Thai event, so I'm ready to fight on the feet and on the ground," he said. "If the fight presents itself better on the ground, I'll take it there and work my ground game, if not, it's time for my Muay Thai."

We believe it, and if the expected KO doesn't come, we know the magic of MMA can be displayed with a well-versed Thai fighter finishing the other by submission. However, with the aggressiveness of these two guys, can we expect anything other than a standup war?