UFC Fight Night 24

[NunyaBidness]

Kellycriterion isnt absolute, plenty of dudes use that and end up going broke due to the high degree of volatility. Kelly betting can be applied to something like Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. With sports betting like MMA, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. Applying the Kelly criterion without acknowledging the uncertainty in the probability can lead to ruin. Yes you can say certain fighters and styles are more likely to be on winning side of bad decisions and therefore thake that into account and use "partial Kelly betting" but that doesnt always work either, majority of people expected Machida to beat Rampage by decision due to his elusiveness and we all saw how that turned out. Your right tho, bankroll management can always be improved!

I'm not sure what you mean by kelly criterion isn't absolute. But, proper kelly staking prevents you from going broke because you're adjusting your bets with your new bankroll at each stage of the game. It's possible to have terrible swings, but you're much more likely to have huge upswings assuming you're making +EV bets.

If the argument is that you can't make a kelly stake because the probability of a 50/50 shot could easily be 20%, then you should be avoiding making any bets below +400.

The point I am making is that people often overestimate their edge. If a bookmaker opens a line giving you a 50% edge, and money doesn't immediately move it towards your position, then its MUCH more likely that your estimation is off.

You have to define a winning probability. You can account for margin of error, but beyond that anything less than some version of kelly staking is minimizing your EG. Anything else you might as well just be picking winners.

[bjpenn85]

the only time you can **** a bookie is when they dont know. an example is, when they forget to close down the line.
It has happen before, then there's only one thing to do, hit withdraw as fast as you can, then, and only then, are you able to win.
Majority of my winnings is because of that. pretty sweet huh? i know...i know...

[sirchadwick1]

Don't arb it! They're going to cancel it, 100%

Do they always cancel these bets? I've heard of some getting lucky with it.
I don't plan on arbing anyway... confident in Hendricks here.

When do they cancel it? After Hendricks whoops that ass? If they're going to do it, I hope they do it prior to the fight.

[Ladle]

The point I am making is that people often overestimate their edge. If a bookmaker opens a line giving you a 50% edge, and money doesn't immediately move it towards your position, then its MUCH more likely that your estimation is off.

There are a lot of ill-educated fans betting on mixed martial arts, and the line movement (or lack there of) reflects that from time to time. It's not as black and white as you're trying to portray it as. Not at all.

When do they cancel it? After Hendricks whoops that ass? If they're going to do it, I hope they do it prior to the fight.

That'd be pretty evil of them to do it post-fight!

[bjpenn85]

You will very soon get an email saying that there were some inadequacy with the lines, what you meant was hendricks -300.
We are sorry about the problem ( like youre sorry). And then they cancel the bet, and you get your money back.
Thats it, like nothing had happened in the first place. It sucks, because youre getting so excited, what if?

[NunyaBidness]

Do they always cancel these bets? I've heard of some getting lucky with it.
I don't plan on arbing anyway... confident in Hendricks here.

When do they cancel it? After Hendricks whoops that ass? If they're going to do it, I hope they do it prior to the fight.

It depends on the book, and it depends on whether its "off" or "flopped" if its an obvious flop, where they meant to have the +2xx on the other side, it will be cancelled. If its just off, like the +100 on schaub they had last week they let it stand.

It depends on the book though. Some shadier ones will even freeroll you. If your bet wins they'll cancel it, if it loses, nothing gets said. 5D would never do that though.

Back at UFC99, I found Story at +325 , maxed it, then kept pounding the -160 line on Hathaway at 5D to create an arb. After I had an insane amount of money on Hathaway, I got the notice that my Story bet was cancelled, and now I was sweating huge. . . Luckily Hathaway pulled it out.

[bjpenn85]

exactly ufc 99, they dont **** up anymore...

[sirchadwick1]

I'll keep you guys posted on what happens. Hopefully, if they cancel... they do it soon. If they let it ride, I'll consider it a nice gift.

EDIT: They removed it. No email, nothing. It's just gone and my $ was refunded.

[Ladle]

I'll keep you guys posted on what happens. Hopefully, if they cancel... they do it soon. If they let it ride, I'll consider it a nice gift.

EDIT: They removed it. No email, nothing. It's just gone and my $ was refunded.

Tragic! They deserved to pay for their oversight.

[bjpenn85]

ey, bookies are scumbags, it shouldnt be a surprise

[FightFightFight]

Ive hit a few lines like that on 5D, they'll return it today if they havent already. Logout, then log in, and you may have a message.
RE: Morecraft, I like McChokel in this fight, especially at dog odds, and I think we could see +180 or more by fight time. Fact of the matter is nobody gasses in 2 minutes because of cardio. He had a lot of pressure on him, because of the insane amount of trash talk, and to a lesser extent co-main status. Hes been pretty quiet this time. He'll come in 20 lbs heavier than Morecraft, and much stronger. Morecraft is fat too, McChokel is all muscle. Morecrafts striking can be sloppy, he overextends himself, and will be ripe for a takedown. From there its McChokels submission game and GnP vs his cardio, which imo, is still an unknown.
Also took Lowe at +230, although Lentz should take this due to reach and kicks I'd say, but an edge in power to Lowe. Lowe is quick on his feet, and Lentz always ends up on his back in his fights, despite his wrestling. Lowe has better wrestling creds too.

[NunyaBidness]

exactly ufc 99, they dont **** up anymore...

Nothing different happened in my post then what Sirchadwick posted. So, I'm not sure what you mean.

[Vaughany]

Lowe has better wrestling creds too.

Lowe was a Div 2 champ at Findlay while Lentz was DIV1 wrestler at Minnesota, no??

[Ladle]

Morecraft, I like McChokel in this fight, especially at dog odds, and I think we could see +180 or more by fight time. Fact of the matter is nobody gasses in 2 minutes because of cardio. He had a lot of pressure on him, because of the insane amount of trash talk, and to a lesser extent co-main status. Hes been pretty quiet this time. He'll come in 20 lbs heavier than Morecraft, and much stronger. Morecraft is fat too, McChokel is all muscle. Morecrafts striking can be sloppy, he overextends himself, and will be ripe for a takedown. From there its McChokels submission game and GnP vs his cardio, which imo, is still an unknown.

Morecraft is the superior striker and wrestler. I think he takes McCorkle down and pounds him out before any fatigue sets in.

If the fight did get out of the second round, McCorkle would be just as partial to gassing, particularly if he spends the majority of the time on bottom. Look at how tired he got against Jeremy Norton.

[rocky mattioli]

Lowe was a Div 2 champ at Findlay while Lentz was DIV1 wrestler at Minnesota, no??

lowe`s cardio has looked very ??? in some fights...

bruce leroy +185 vs semenzier...

[Vaughany]

lowe`s cardio has looked very ??? in some fights...

bruce leroy +185 vs semenzier...

Ye Lentz's cardio advantage is the key in this one for me.

I'd be shocked if Leroy beats Semerzier!

Nog/Davis to go distance is -175 on 5dimes/Sportbet people

[FightFightFight]

Lowe was a Div 2 champ at Findlay while Lentz was DIV1 wrestler at Minnesota, no??

Yeah, 3X div 2 champ is better than run of the mill Div 1 Id wager, which is what Lentz appears to be.
A friend of mine big on wrestling said he figured a guy like Lowe would maybe come in 16th or so in Div 1 finals, after I asked him for a comparison between the two divisions.

[FightFightFight]

Morecraft is the superior striker and wrestler. I think he takes McCorkle down and pounds him out before any fatigue sets in. If the fight did get out of the second round, McCorkle would be just as partial to gassing, particularly if he spends the majority of the time on bottom. Look at how tired he got against Jeremy Norton.

What makes you think Morecrafts wrestling is better? And striking for that matter. Im not saying its not, there seems to be so little to go on with these guys. No footage of Morecraft besides Struve, and his striking was pretty sloppy there imo. McCorkle has footage, but its of him beating on fat cans, and Id guess not exemplary of his recent improvements.

[rocky mattioli]

Ye Lentz's cardio advantage is the key in this one for me.

I'd be shocked if Leroy beats Semerzier!

Nog/Davis to go distance is -175 on 5dimes/Sportbet people

they basically gave leroy the guy at the bottom rung of the ufc ladder....and he`s still +185?.....

i guess that means in the oddsmaker`s/ufc`s eyes,if a rattlesnake were to fart,it would blow dirt in leroy`s face...

[LayingThe$Down]

I like Morecraft for a small play.

Given that McCorkle is getting close to 35 (a decade older than his opponent), has a disadvantage in speed, possesses questionable confidence and pressure control ( McCorkle admitted that his nerves got to him in his last fight and he froze up/gassed in the first round), and he is not as athletic makes me think he is going to get finished.

However, I simply don't have enough info/video to jump in here big. The data is kinda thin on these guys.....imo McCorkle is in trouble here, though.

Not many fights with close odds.

If Rumble wasn't coming off such a severe injury and long layoff, I would dump on him at those odds. Big question marks surrounding him here, though. Anthony is the better wrestler, the better athlete, and imo has superior power. I like him for a small play still.

However, knee injuries can take fighters a long time to regain 100% mobility and strength from. In MMA, everything begins with your knees (well, suppose that's true with most sports, I guess....) and the first fight or two back can be a difficult ( but necessary) adjustment period.

UFC 129 looks much juicier so I will hold off any real action until then. See some interesting opportunities there.

Good luck, everyone.

[Ladle]

No footage of Morecraft besides Struve

That's not true. I've seen almost all of his fights.

What makes you think Morecrafts wrestling is better? And striking for that matter.

Morecraft's striking ability has actually looked okay, whereas McCorkle's striking ability has looked essentially nonexistent. Morecraft smashed Lee Beane so hard on the feet that he didn't want to continue, and Beane is a much better fighter than any of the cans McCorkle beat up.

Wrestling-wise they're more closely matched, but I still give the edge to Morecraft. Watch his fight against Josh Diekman (incidentally, another fighter who is leagues above any of the pre-UFC competition that McCorkle faced). Morecraft hits a beautiful clinch takedown right off the bat and chokes Diekman out about 10 seconds later. That's a much more impressive display of wrestling ability than anything McCorkle has pulled off.

McCorkle has footage, but its of him beating on fat cans, and Id guess not exemplary of his recent improvements.

What recent improvements? He got swept straight to mount and was ready to give up immediately in his last fight.

[Vaughany]

they basically gave leroy the guy at the bottom rung of the ufc ladder....and he`s still +185?.....

i guess that means in the oddsmaker`s/ufc`s eyes,if a rattlesnake were to fart,it would blow dirt in leroy`s face...

I'm not surprised he's +185 even against a guy like Semerzier who might not seem that great on paper because he has lost 3 on the bounce. However, all three of those losses wer against guys who are level above Leroy and the loss against Swanson was extremely close and could of gone either way. Gettin subbed by Vazquez is nothing to be ashamed about and he managed to escape a couple of sub attempts earlier on in tht fight. Taurosevicius meanwhile just had a big wrestling advantage and was able to take Semerzier down and smother him for 3 rounds so completely different style to Leroy. With this being a must win fight for Mackens I just dont see how he can lose

[rocky mattioli]

i am so tempted to take a flyer with "korean zombie".....i`m not crazy about either guy....but "zombie"(hard to be serious) has been training stateside....

and you just have to wonder,how many more times can garcia pull fights out his arse?...after all that punishment he`s taken....honestly,he looks a bit worse each time out....he was missing most of his shots in the phan fight by a foot.....
garcia probably has a grappling advantage(in the strange event that this goes to the mat)......

i`m probably just suffering from withdrawal..i wanted phan so bad at the early opener...

[rocky mattioli]

I'm not surprised he's +185 even against a guy like Semerzier who might not seem that great on paper because he has lost 3 on the bounce. However, all three of those losses wer against guys who are level above Leroy and the loss against Swanson was extremely close and could of gone either way. Gettin subbed by Vazquez is nothing to be ashamed about and he managed to escape a couple of sub attempts earlier on in tht fight. Taurosevicius meanwhile just had a big wrestling advantage and was able to take Semerzier down and smother him for 3 rounds so completely different style to Leroy. With this being a must win fight for Mackens I just dont see how he can lose

well said...

[FightFightFight]

Where did you see Morecraft fights? When he fought struve, I scoured the net. He was a ghost. I agree about McCorkles striking.

[Vaughany]

possesses questionable confidence and pressure control ( McCorkle admitted that his nerves got to him in his last fight and he froze up/gassed in the first round), and he is not as athletic makes me think he is going to get finished.

Hate to get all psycho-analytic about McCorkle but the whole sh*t talkin thing is clearly a defense like mechanism against his own insecurities and lack of confidence! Yes he obviously does it for fun and to get a reaction out of his opponent, promote the fight etc... but u'd think after the embarrassing performance against Struve that he'd get his head down and concentrate on just beating Morecraft. To be fair, to a certain extent he has been quieter... his sh*t talkin effort is no way near the levels it was before the Struve fight but he is still doing the whole arrogant act and "Im better looking than him" stuff!

Overall, I just think Morecraft will be slightly more dynamic and hungrier which will be key to victory.

[Ladle]

Where did you see Morecraft fights? When he fought struve, I scoured the net. He was a ghost. I agree about McCorkles striking.

Youtube and Google are your friends.

[Vaughany]

[Ladle]

Good job, V.

Those two fights will give everyone an idea of how Morecraft's striking and wrestling looks against somewhat credible opponents.

[FightFightFight]

Thanks!!! Morecraft showed decent balance vs Beane, but did get taken down twice. Lets face it. This is for the crown of UFCs worst HW. I think Morecraft wears it, but not nearly enough to lose my shirt, or try to talk you out of a Morecraft bet. I figured McChokel should be -130.

Some nice dogs on this card. I'm actually going to make a decent bet on Waldburger. Anyone who saw Waldburger-Mitchell knows what I'm talking about. Plus some reach advantage, Hendricks on short notice, and possible improvements, that are usually seen once guys reach UFC level, make it a nice value play. Hendricks will likely keep it on the feet, and KO him, but the odds are good. Wouldnt pay more than -200 for Hendricks here.

[LearningTree]

Madsen/Russow line make no sense at all. No way in hell Russow should be +250. Makes zero sense.

[Ladle]

Madsen/Russow line make no sense at all. No way in hell Russow should be +250. Makes zero sense.

Yeah, it's ludicrous. I've made a play on Russow.

[LayingThe$Down]

Hate to get all psycho-analytic about McCorkle but the whole sh*t talkin thing is clearly a defense like mechanism against his own insecurities and lack of confidence! Yes he obviously does it for fun and to get a reaction out of his opponent, promote the fight etc... but u'd think after the embarrassing performance against Struve that he'd get his head down and concentrate on just beating Morecraft. To be fair, to a certain extent he has been quieter... his sh*t talkin effort is no way near the levels it was before the Struve fight but he is still doing the whole arrogant act and "Im better looking than him" stuff!

Overall, I just think Morecraft will be slightly more dynamic and hungrier which will be key to victory.

I don't like playing Freud too much, either.....it has the potential to cost you money, but you can't go wrong if you limit psychology to a small factor and not let it blow up into a reason.

McCorkle has been much quieter than usual leading up to this fight, very true. The irony is that his UG antics and hype seemed to be a large help in getting him into the UFC in the first place. He remarked on the UG how disappointed he was that the "fans turned on him" so quickly after that Struve fight.

But I agree with you. He should limit all the distractions and treat this fight as if his entire career hangs in the balance. Because at his age and at this point it probably does.

imo Morecraft has an edge in speed, youth, and confidence. I would be surprised if McCorkle isn't stopped here. I just hope McCorkle doesn't shock me by getting on top. It's difficult comparing their grappling abilities.

Like I said, not much on this card that I can get excited about, but a small play here is good imo.

[The HOFF]

Madsen/Russow line make no sense at all. No way in hell Russow should be +250. Makes zero sense.

Yeah, it's ludicrous. I've made a play on Russow.

I thought the line was going to be a lot closer, and I originally wanted to play Madsen. I don't think I can pas up +250 on Russow.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I think Leroy is on the card for the simple matter of alot of people wanting to see his face smashed in. Me thinks Mackens weathers some unorthodox Leroy-fu and takes this to the mat stat.

Also -- anyone out there considering a straddle of Mr. Wonderful (-330) w/ Nog inside the distance (+484)? Granted, any time it goes to the cards, it can get dicey, but... I'm looking for a Davis decision via wrestling top control / Davis finish (less likely) / Nog finish. Can't see Nog taking a decision here as I don't think his boxing & TDD is enough to keep this thing standing to earn an "outpointing" decision, and can't see him taking a decision by spending the good majority of this fight on his back -- even if he is active from guard...