WEC 53: Henderson vs Pettis

[The HOFF]

Date: Dec 16, 2010
Location: Glendale, Ariz.
Venue: Jobing.com Arena
Broadcast: Versus

MAIN CARD

• Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis (lightweight title)
• Dominick Cruz vs. Scott Jorgensen (bantamweight title)
• Donald Cerrone vs. Chris Horodecki
• Bart Palaszewski vs. Kamal Shalorus
• Danny Downes vs. Tiequan Zhang

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Shane Roller vs. Jamie Varner
• Ivan Menjivar vs. Brad Pickett
• Ken Stone vs. Eddie Wineland
• Danny Castillo vs. Will Kerr
• Yuri Alcantara vs. Ricardo Lamas
• Renan Barao vs. Chris Cariaso

[The HOFF]

This is a great card; better than UFC 124 in my opinion. It sucks that this will be the last WEC card but hopefully all goes well once these fighters all merge into the UFC. Bookmaker has lines out on the two title fights.

[Vaughany]

Pettis currently at +145 on most books but +154 on BetUs. Henderson -155 to -180 range.

Cruz -196 to -220 range and Jorgensen +170 to +179.

Looking to take both fights to go over 3.5 rounds (if available) or to go the distance (if both +120 or better). Im confident at least one of the two will go the distance. All four fighters have great cardio and dont have a big advantage over their opponent in any area IMO.

Considering plays on Cerrone, Varner, Pickett and Wineland but they'll probly be too much chalk. I expect Varner to be -150 to -180 range, and the others to be -225 to -300 range (Cerrone will be atleast -270). May play Cariaso if he is the dog against Renan Barao, his stand up will be far superior, Leone was getting the better of Renan standing and his stand up isnt as good as Cariaso's.

[The HOFF]

Looking to take both fights to go over 3.5 rounds (if available) or to go the distance (if both +120 or better). Im confident at least one of the two will go the distance. All four fighters have great cardio and dont have a big advantage over their opponent in any area IMO.

Considering plays on Cerrone, Varner, Pickett and Wineland but they'll probly be too much chalk. I expect Varner to be -150 to -180 range, and the others to be -225 to -300 range (Cerrone will be atleast -270). May play Cariaso if he is the dog against Renan Barao, his stand up will be far superior, Leone was getting the better of Renan standing and his stand up isnt as good as Cariaso's.

Cruz vs Jorgensen has the best chance of going 5. I know you like Pettis but I think Henderson will be able to finish him in under 5.

I like those other 4 as well, with Varner and Cerrone being big plays for me. And get out of here with that negative thinking about Cerrone -270. Be positive and delusional, Cerrone -180.

[Vaughany]

Cruz vs Jorgensen has the best chance of going 5. I know you like Pettis but I think Henderson will be able to finish him in under 5.

I like those other 4 as well, with Varner and Cerrone being big plays for me. And get out of here with that negative thinking about Cerrone -270. Be positive and delusional, Cerrone -180.

ha yeah Cerrone as the dog thn! I like Pettis but not enough to bet on him outright!

[36mafia]

just parlayed both champs to defend their title

[The HOFF]

just parlayed both champs to defend their title

Like Henderson, but not so sure about Cruz. If he was fully healthy, then I would say Cruz easily. But the news that he needs hand surgery after the fight scares me.

[lasker]

Like Henderson, but not so sure about Cruz. If he was fully healthy, then I would say Cruz easily. But the news that he needs hand surgery after the fight scares me.

Same here. I think Henderson takes it, but I'm staying away from betting on the other title fight.

[Vaughany]

Odds should come out in a couple of hours I should think, hoping Pinnacle release theirs soon after bookmaker, 5dimes etc in order to get any undervalued lines! Not expecting much tho, just want some type of over or distance prop for the two title fights.

[doubleleg]

I see Cerrone beating the hell out of Hordecki in this one.

[terpkeg]

Anyone know much about Danny Downes? I would figure UFC wants to keep the Zhang ball rolling for now.

[brooks85]

lines are out

[Vaughany]

Cariaso is only one that jumps out at me as value at +240.

[Eccocide]

These lines are insane. All the guys I liked are overpriced lol.

[brooks85]

^

[Vaughany]

Varner -200 I was hoping for -140 to -160 range!

[Poppa Catfish]

I saw this coming a mile away

[terpkeg]

Varner is too much now at -245, bout to go the other way at +195.

[Eccocide]

Varner is too much now at -245, bout to go the other way at +195.

Yup, I'm taking Roller if he breaks +200.

[The HOFF]

Cariaso is only one that jumps out at me as value at +240.

I agree. That seems to be the only value.

These lines are insane. All the guys I liked are overpriced lol.

Damn You Bookmaker!! They are getting a lot sharper with their openers.

Varner -200 I was hoping for -140 to -160 range!

So was I. I thought -180 at the worst. Still jumped on it though.

[The HOFF]

[The HOFF]

Line on Shalorus keeps going down. Opened high but dropping to where it should be.

[terpkeg]

Why does everyone love Varner so much? I will admit, I put no effort into handicapping this event yet. I have watched no footage, read no articles. But, I was thinking at work today, If I had to open this line, I would have set -120/+100 Varner. I obviously would have been pounded.

I do think, stylistically, this is a bad match up for Roller at first glance. His stand up game is far from as evolved as Varner, who has a boxing background, and Varner has the wrestling pedigree to keep it up. However, I was way off on the Varner - Cerronne fight since I did not do my homework re: Varner's nagging injuries and instability at ACS.

Has anything changed since then? This seems like a fairly quick turn around for a guy who was battling so many injuries. It is possible that Varner has wore his body down and is on the downside of his career, or atleast going through a rough spot. Whereas, Roller has not taking nearly as much damage and, in theory, should be improving significantly each time out.

[Vaughany]

Cariaso line getting even better at +265 now. He should have the edge in the stand up, Leone was getting the better of Renan at times in Barao's debut and his striking is no way near Cariaso's level. Obviously Renan should submit or decision Cariaso through out-grappling him but at +250 to +300 range he's defo worth a play IMO.

[Vaughany]

Why does everyone love Varner so much? I will admit, I put no effort into handicapping this event yet. I have watched no footage, read no articles. But, I was thinking at work today, If I had to open this line, I would have set -120/+100 Varner. I obviously would have been pounded.

I do think, stylistically, this is a bad match up for Roller at first glance. His stand up game is far from as evolved as Varner, who has a boxing background, and Varner has the wrestling pedigree to keep it up. However, I was way off on the Varner - Cerronne fight since I did not do my homework re: Varner's nagging injuries and instability at ACS.

Has anything changed since then? This seems like a fairly quick turn around for a guy who was battling so many injuries. It is possible that Varner has wore his body down and is on the downside of his career, or atleast going through a rough spot. Whereas, Roller has not taking nearly as much damage and, in theory, should be improving significantly each time out.

Varner has revamped his camp for this fight, training at AKA for a few weeks I believe. He's saying that its best camp ever etc... the usual stuff. I was only gonna play him at -140 or sumin which was optimistic. As Ecco sed above, there is value in Roller if he reaches +200 tho. Probly avoid it altogether tho!

[Poppa Catfish]

About a month now. He is working his ass off, unlike a certain guy who just fought for a title

[Vaughany]

Anybody see value in Kerr at +211? Castillo hasnt impressed me in his last couple fights.

[The HOFF]

Anybody see value in Kerr at +211? Castillo hasnt impressed me in his last couple fights.

That's what I was thinking too. 1-2 in past 3 with a dec win over Poirier. I think this is a good spot for Kerr. But would you quit throwing out all these underdogs I like, I want to win the Year End Contest.

[The HOFF]

Anyone know much about Danny Downes? I would figure UFC wants to keep the Zhang ball rolling for now.

He looks like an absolute turd if you've ever seen him. He showed some heart against Horodeci but was completely outclassed.

[The HOFF]

Why does everyone love Varner so much? I will admit, I put no effort into handicapping this event yet. I have watched no footage, read no articles. But, I was thinking at work today, If I had to open this line, I would have set -120/+100 Varner. I obviously would have been pounded.

I do think, stylistically, this is a bad match up for Roller at first glance. His stand up game is far from as evolved as Varner, who has a boxing background, and Varner has the wrestling pedigree to keep it up. However, I was way off on the Varner - Cerronne fight since I did not do my homework re: Varner's nagging injuries and instability at ACS.

Has anything changed since then? This seems like a fairly quick turn around for a guy who was battling so many injuries. It is possible that Varner has wore his body down and is on the downside of his career, or atleast going through a rough spot. Whereas, Roller has not taking nearly as much damage and, in theory, should be improving significantly each time out.

Not so much love for Varner, but against Roller. I personally thing Roller is severely overrated. He has some wrestling ability but not much else. His cardio was extremely poor in the fight against Pettis. Varner should be able to dictate the fight.

[Vaughany]

That's what I was thinking too. 1-2 in past 3 with a dec win over Poirier. I think this is a good spot for Kerr. But would you quit throwing out all these underdogs I like, I want to win the Year End Contest.

haha I guess we'll be having similar plays in the contest on Thursday then!

[Vaughany]

Oh yeah, and I had Varner to beat Cerrone and Roller to beat Pettis so I should probly stay away from this match-up!

[rocky mattioli]

isn`t this considered a "home" fight for varner?...hopefully,he`ll get a little love from the judges for a change here...

and btw...varner/roller not televised?....can that be right?...

[snake11eyes]

Henderson -160 is a steal. Should be -200 or higher.

[lasker]

Henderson -160 is a steal. Should be -200 or higher.

agreed.