My MMA/Boxing Plays

[JAKEPEAVY21]

gl I'm on Cruz large as well

[jcubs55]

gl I'm on Cruz large as well

Urijah wins most of his fights because he is simply the better fighter, but what people don't realize is that he usually ends up fighting his opponent's style of fight... Cruz should control this one, let's cash it!

[jcubs55]

Today is the day. Line is up to around -160 at some books... LET'S GOOOOOOO

[jcubs55]

7/2:

1-0 +5.0 Units

YTD:

12-5 +22.62 Units

Let me know when you guys want to start paying attention...

[jcubs55]

8/6:

Alexander Gustafsson -149 risking 2.24 Units to win 1.5 Units

[jcubs55]

8/6 Results:

1-0 +1.5 Units

YTD:

13-5 +24.12 Units

[jcubs55]

8/27:

Luiz Cane -198 risking 3.96 Units to win 2.0 Units

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Luiz Cane -199 risking 3.98 Units to win 2.0 Units

Total:

Luiz Cane -198.5 (avg line) risking 7.94 Units to win 4.0 Units

[jcubs55]

8/27:

0-1 -7.94 Units

YTD:

13-6 +16.18 Units

Honestly, after watching that first round, we were about 85-90% to win that fight... literally the only way we lose is if we get clipped which is exactly what happened... but that's always a risk betting on MMA. Nonetheless, we take the tough loss and move on to the next +EV spot...

[jcubs55]

9/17:

Alan Belcher -275 risking 5.5 Units to win 2.0 Units

[illmatick]

Let me know when you guys want to start paying attention...

I'm ready playa

[jcubs55]

9/17 Boxing:

Mayweather to win by KO, TKO, DQ +200 risking 1.0 Unit to win 2.0 Units

[jcubs55]

I'm ready playa

Sounds good, let's continue crushing combat sports.

9/17 Results:

2-0 +4.0 Units

YTD:

15-6 +20.18 Units

[jcubs55]

People see that Jones is a huge favorite of around -500 and simply dismiss it right away. BIG MISTAKE. People think you can't profit long-term by laying huge chalk because "eventually you will get f***ed"... I can't begin to explain how naive that mindset is. Simply put, you can profit betting any type of line as long as you pick and choose spots that are +EV over the long haul. Honestly, Jones should be around -2000 in almost all of his fights. With his reach, raw strength, athleticism and intelligence, he is nearly unbeatable. My friend sincerely believes that there is not one light heavyweight currently fighting in the UFC that has a solid chance at beating Jones. The only way he can lose is by a freak accident (broken arm/leg, etc), and has a very good chance to not lose for a very, very long time.

Needless to say, I will be betting Jones come Saturday. I see the line has started to climb, but I'm hoping the fact that Rampage is a public fighter will help tug it back down a bit since this line might seem unusually high for a "superstar". Regardless of the line (unless it's over -3000, lol), I will be betting Jones to win 4.0 Units... just a matter of time until I lock it in.

[NunyaBidness]

People see that Jones is a huge favorite of around -500 and simply dismiss it right away. BIG MISTAKE. People think you can't profit long-term by laying huge chalk because "eventually you will get f***ed"... I can't begin to explain how naive that mindset is. Simply put, you can profit betting any type of line as long as you pick and choose spots that are +EV over the long haul. Honestly, Jones should be around -2000 in almost all of his fights. With his reach, raw strength, athleticism and intelligence, he is nearly unbeatable. My friend sincerely believes that there is not one light heavyweight currently fighting in the UFC that has a solid chance at beating Jones. The only way he can lose is by a freak accident (broken arm/leg, etc), and has a very good chance to not lose for a very, very long time.

Needless to say, I will be betting Jones come Saturday. I see the line has started to climb, but I'm hoping the fact that Rampage is a public fighter will help tug it back down a bit since this line might seem unusually high for a "superstar". Regardless of the line (unless it's over -3000, lol), I will be betting Jones to win 4.0 Units... just a matter of time until I lock it in.

The first half of your first paragraph is true, and I was going to applaud it. The rest of what you say is a bit silly. Jones shouldn't be -2000 in any of his fights. In the history of MMA there are probably only a handful of fights that should be favored to win 95% of the time. The gloves are too small, the judges too bad, injuries happen.

[Vaughany]

Yep all it takes is for Jones to get complacent/sloppy and get caught after attempting a Struveesq flying knee! Of course unlikely but there have been quite a few shocks recently

[v1y]

Honestly, Jones should be around -2000 in almost all of his fights.

lol.

Rampage has the best takedown defense of anyone jones has ever fought.
Rampage is the heaviest hitter jones has ever fought.

-500 is a horrible price for jones, even though i think he steamrolls jackson.

[MMAbetMASTA]

lol.

Rampage has the best takedown defense of anyone jones has ever fought.
Rampage is the heaviest hitter jones has ever fought.

-500 is a horrible price for jones, even though i think he steamrolls jackson.

I agree with this.

My buddy looks at this fight the same way the dude you quoted does. While I believe there is truth behind much of what he says, in that there are some heavy favorites that are still worth risking big amounts of money on for little return, yet this match is not one of them. Yes, I think jones will absolutely dominate. However I do agree with V1y that page's tdd and his disciplined boxing +power will present some interesting questions in this fight. If page was mentally sound and confident, I would actually favor a small, small upset play on him. Yet the dude is a looney, shady, and seeems like he is already counting this as a loss (jones str8 called him out in that interview, page is already thinking of an excuse probably). To risk 500 for 100 on this match is too risky imo, other matches yes, if page didn't have nice boxing and ko power then yes, but overall I don't like paying juice on this match, nor do I like a play on page. Just sit back and enjoy this one There is usually always a better heavy fav to play than someone with -500 or higher odds.

[illmatick]

-500 is a horrible price for jones

Meh, disagree. I wouldn't mind being wrong though.

[Kaladarus]

Jones ITD -250 guys. Half price buy one get one free. I would much rather pay half price and take my chances than pay the full -500. It's hard to imagine this one going more than 2 rounds.

[jcubs55]

Two HUGE plays this weekend... both to win at least 5 Units. The second will be Jones (hoping the public can push the line back down a bit more towards fight night). Here is the first:

Tim Boetsch -155 risking 11.625 Units to win 7.5 Units

[jcubs55]

Biggest MMA day of my friend's, my brother's and my life... LET'S DO THIS!!! Full card:


Tim Boetsch -155 risking 11.625 Units to win 7.5 Units (posted earlier, already tons of line value here)

Ben Rothwell -338 risking 10.14 to win 3.0 Units

Rothwell wins inside distance -200 risking 4.0 Units to win 2.0 Units

Jon Jones -536 risking 26.8 Units (Gulp!) to win 5.0 Units

I found this funny... my friend mentioned that he isn't nervous for the Jones fight at all even though it's a high risk amount... he said the only thing he's worried about is that he doesn't want Jones to suffer a fluke injury that would delay him from fighting again very soon... haha.

[Vaughany]

A lot of chalk there but all look good to me! Go big or go home I guess

[jcubs55]

Yup, TONS of chalk, but I won't pass up a solid opportunity for a +EV wager because of it.

Adding on:

Jon Jones -523 risking 13.075 Units to win 2.5 Units

Ben Rothwell -338 risking 8.45 to win 2.5 Units

All 3 fighters are now to win 7.5 Units each... easily the biggest wagering day of our lives. My friend that gives me these plays just texted me and told me to go big. LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

[drmambo]

No updates since jones fight? I am trying to find an MMA handicapper to follow.

[dugdogg]

UFC tomorrow night!

[schism79]

Any plays for 10/8 UFC?

[jcubs55]

9/24 Results:

1-2 -7.59 Units

YTD:

16-8 +12.59 Units

[jcubs55]

Sorry I haven't posted in awhile guys. Our friend had no plays last week, so it's not like I forgot to post or anything. Two solid dog plays tonight:

Kenny Florian +286 risking 2.5 Units to win 7.15 Units

Brian Stann +216 risking 2.5 Units to win 5.4 Units

[schism79]

Sorry I haven't posted in awhile guys. Our friend had no plays last week, so it's not like I forgot to post or anything. Two solid dog plays tonight:

Kenny Florian +286 risking 2.5 Units to win 7.15 Units

Brian Stann +216 risking 2.5 Units to win 5.4 Units

Sweet man...thanks for posting! I follow your brother's picks and will be tailing ya 2nite!

[TMoney33]

Sweet man...thanks for posting! I follow your brother's picks and will be tailing ya 2nite!

I also found you through your bros thread. GL on your plays.

[jcubs55]

10/8 Results:

0-2 -5.0 Units

YTD:

16-10 +7.59 Units

A winless night is the risk we take when we stab at a couple doggies, no worries.

[dugdogg]

any calls on the bernard hopkins fight on saturday?

[raidersfan]

Ill be attending the hopkins fight...taking hopkins as the slight underdog and might lay the over 11.5 rounds -400 chalky but its the only result i see.

[jcubs55]

No combat sport bets this weekend. I'm personally locked in on Clemson -7.5 in NCAAF on Saturday and New Orleans -4 in the NFL on Sunday. See you guys next weekend.