My MMA/Boxing Plays

[jcubs55]

Have been crushing it with the help of a good friend who really knows his stuff. Most plays are 1-5 Units with rare plays up to 10 Units. Gonna start off my posting of plays with some big plays on + Money payouts. GL.

Antonio Margarito +450 risking 2.5 Units to win 11.25 Units

Margarito/Pacquiao Over 9.5 Rounds +125 risking 4.0 Units to win 5.0 Units


Will most likely add wagers on Margarito not getting knocked out and maybe Margarito knocking out Pacquiao when prop lines come out.

[Poppa Catfish]

I'm really interested what you are seeing that leads you to bet that way, because I just don't see him winning this fight.

[Poppa Catfish]

now him shelling up and going over 9 rounds for a paycheck, I can certainly see.

[RaiderNation MMA]

i honestly think pac knocks him out early sry

[Poppa Catfish]

i honestly think pac knocks him out early sry

Too bad we can't see a special rules match where Margarito gets his magical hand wraps

[Flexin]

Have been crushing it with the help of a good friend who really knows his stuff. Most plays are 1-5 Units with rare plays up to 10 Units. Gonna start off my posting of plays with some big plays on + Money payouts. GL. Antonio Margarito +450 risking 2.5 Units to win 11.25 Units Margarito/Pacquiao Over 9.5 Rounds +125 risking 4.0 Units to win 5.0 Units Will most likely add wagers on Margarito not getting knocked out and maybe Margarito knocking out Pacquiao when prop lines come out.

I don't feel Margarito wins this. I was going to put money on Pacquiao but I didn't like some of what I heard about his training camp. I still feel like he will win.

I'm also not feeling the over. It could happen but I feel that Pacquiao will be too much for Margarito. Its possible that he beats Margarito in less then 9.

IF Margarito wins this fight I feel he will catch Pacquiao mid way.

I just hope Manny is putting everything he has into this fight and not just playing superstar.

James

[Flexin]

Too bad we can't see a special rules match where Margarito gets his magical hand wraps

I want to see Margarito get another beat down for that shit.

James

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Pacquiao DOES NOT win by KO, TKO, DQ +120 risking 2.0 Units to win 2.4 Units
Margarito wins by KO, TKO, DQ +500 risking 1.0 Unit to win 5.0 Units

Arright, gonna touch on a few things pretty quick.

After hearing a ton of analysis from my friend and watching a lot of vids, here is what we gathered on this fight:

Margarito is in the best shape of his life right now, and is coming out what is probably his best camp ever with his new trainer Garcia. Pacquiao has looked invincible in his last four fights and seems to be getting complacent. He has been in and out of camp with his mind on congress and a trip to random locations almost every weekend. He has looked better as of late but still seems a tad slower than usual while Margarito looks like he has the most speed he's ever had. Margarito has a chip on his shoulder after the plaster incident and knows this will be his best chance to silence critics. I'm not saying Margarito is a lock to win or anything, but he is definitely not a 4-1 or higher underdog. This is a value play. As for the total, people underestimate Margarito's chin. Pacquiao is giving up 15-20 pounds and half a foot to Margarito, and we think Margarito will definitely be able to handle Pacman's power punches.

Bottomline, a lot of things could happen in this fight. Pacman could come out and pick Margarito apart for 12 rounds and coast to a decision. Margarito could withstand 4 rounds of Pacman coming out firing, and then turn and stop Pacman a few rounds later. We won't be able to tell what was the "right" or "wrong" play based on the outcome of this one fight, but these bets should show profit long-term.

If Pacman is going to win, it should take him some time. Margarito should be able to last at least 9.5 rounds. If Margarito wins, it probably won't be by a decision given Pacquiao's quickness, speed, agility, etc. Look for Margarito to stop Pacman late, in the "9th, 10th, or 11th" as my friend suggested. BOL guys.

[Flexin]

Adding:

Pacquiao DOES NOT win by KO, TKO, DQ +120 risking 2.0 Units to win 2.4 Units
Margarito wins by KO, TKO, DQ +500 risking 1.0 Unit to win 5.0 Units

Arright, gonna touch on a few things pretty quick.

After hearing a ton of analysis from my friend and watching a lot of vids, here is what we gathered on this fight:

Margarito is in the best shape of his life right now, and is coming out what is probably his best camp ever with his new trainer Garcia. Pacquiao has looked invincible in his last four fights and seems to be getting complacent. He has been in and out of camp with his mind on congress and a trip to random locations almost every weekend. He has looked better as of late but still seems a tad slower than usual while Margarito looks like he has the most speed he's ever had. Margarito has a chip on his shoulder after the plaster incident and knows this will be his best chance to silence critics. I'm not saying Margarito is a lock to win or anything, but he is definitely not a 4-1 or higher underdog. This is a value play. As for the total, people underestimate Margarito's chin. Pacquiao is giving up 15-20 pounds and half a foot to Margarito, and we think Margarito will definitely be able to handle Pacman's power punches.

Bottomline, a lot of things could happen in this fight. Pacman could come out and pick Margarito apart for 12 rounds and coast to a decision. Margarito could withstand 4 rounds of Pacman coming out firing, and then turn and stop Pacman a few rounds later. We won't be able to tell what was the "right" or "wrong" play based on the outcome of this one fight, but these bets should show profit long-term.

If Pacman is going to win, it should take him some time. Margarito should be able to last at least 9.5 rounds. If Margarito wins, it probably won't be by a decision given Pacquiao's quickness, speed, agility, etc. Look for Margarito to stop Pacman late, in the "9th, 10th, or 11th" as my friend suggested. BOL guys.

Its a tough fight. Manny keeps moving up in weight. Everybody says he is too small and his power will not come up with him. It does. He also keeps his speed.

Some say that Margarito hits extremely hard while others say he has nothing in his punches. He was caught with bad hand wraps and without them he ended up getting his ass whooped. Does he have a punch without the wraps?

For the most part Manny doesn't drop people with one punch. He hits you hard with hits you often.

Margarito on his fastest day doesn't have half the speed of Mannys slowest day. He will have to hit Manny and hit him hard to beat him. He will be hit 5+ trying to get in his one. To win he needs to hurt Manny early. He needs to make Manny worry about coming in.

There are a lot of unknowns.

I really wanted to bet on Manny with this one but because he hasn't really taken this camp seriously I just don't know.

I will have to decided if I bet on this fight. In the end I want Manny to put a serious beating on Margarito.

James

[jcubs55]

Nice post James. As a fan I love Pacman and am not very fond of Margarito (but will be if he wins this fight, lol). If you saw the weigh in, pac is down at 144.6... Tony will have 5-6 inches and up to 20 lbs on Pacman in this fight and should be able to endure at least 9.5 rounds against pac which will guarantee a profitable fight for my friend and I... after that, we will have to see how it plays out

[Flexin]

Nice post James. As a fan I love Pacman and am not very fond of Margarito (but will be if he wins this fight, lol). If you saw the weigh in, pac is down at 144.6... Tony will have 5-6 inches and up to 20 lbs on Pacman in this fight and should be able to endure at least 9.5 rounds against pac which will guarantee a profitable fight for my friend and I... after that, we will have to see how it plays out

Thanks. I was just going to mention that Fightnews has the weight in video up.

I was surprised how light he came in. But he was around this weight for his last 4 fights or so. Another 5.5 pounds wouldn't have done a whole lot for him.

Oscar is only and inch shorter then Margarito so the size itself shouldn't be a problem. Margarito should be in better shape compared to Oscar and not at the end of this career.

Shane took Margarito in 9. Mosley is bigger then Manny. If Manny can get in I think he will hit Margarito more then Shane but will he be able to hit as hard?

This could be a very interesting fight.

James

[jcubs55]

Freddy Roach and Pacman's crew throwing fits trying to get Margarito DQ'd and protesting... looks like they know they have a loser!!!

[jcubs55]

Today's Results:

2-2 +3.9 Units

YTD:

2-2 +3.9 Units

[ddream1]

keep up good work sir

[jcubs55]

Play for this Saturday in UFC 123:

Jackson/Machida Over 2.5 Rounds +116 risking 4.0 Units to win 4.64 Units

My friend has some other leans but I may not be playing any of those, if I do I will make note of it.

[Vaughany]

Play for this Saturday in UFC 123:

Jackson/Machida Over 2.5 Rounds +116 risking 4.0 Units to win 4.64 Units

My friend has some other leans but I may not be playing any of those, if I do I will make note of it.

U get those odds at Pinnacle? I was thinking of it but I dont see Jackson winning the fight if it goes in to third round. He'll be slower and harder for him to finish Machida, and if it goes to decision and I can only see Machida taking it so would rather take Machida by decision at better odds. However, I can only get Machida by decision at -110 currently so will probly end up taking the Jackson/Machida over 2.5 rounds prop aswell.

[jcubs55]

Hey Vaughany, sorry I didn't see your post and respond earlier. Yes I got the odds at pinny. The over closed there at around -140, so we locked in tremendous line value. My friend said the reason he didn't just take Machida by decision was because he could see Rampage clipping him a few times which looks good for the judges and would give Jackson a small chance at a decision win. Looks like that's about what happened, along with the takedown in the second round. I was a little surprised by Jackson's win but us over bettors got the win nonetheless.

11/20 Results:

1-0 +4.64 Units

YTD:

3-2 +8.54 Units

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughany, sorry I didn't see your post and respond earlier. Yes I got the odds at pinny. The over closed there at around -140, so we locked in tremendous line value. My friend said the reason he didn't just take Machida by decision was because he could see Rampage clipping him a few times which looks good for the judges and would give Jackson a small chance at a decision win. Looks like that's about what happened, along with the takedown in the second round. I was a little surprised by Jackson's win but us over bettors got the win nonetheless.

11/20 Results:

1-0 +4.64 Units

YTD:

3-2 +8.54 Units

No worries bro, gd job last night and was a great decision taking the Over 2.5 rnds, I never really expect Rampage to get a decision. Made a big error of waiting for skybet to release their props which they didnt do till late Friday night, and by that time the over 2.5 on pinnacle had gone down to -114 so I took the Machida by dec at evens on skybet

[jcubs55]

Sorry I forgot to post today, but to anyone curious:

My friend had a few bets today, his largest were Amir Khan and Georges St. Pierre. I personally was only on Amir Khan today to win 2.5 Units. GSP dominated and Khan won as well but didn't seem as dominant as expected. Although it may have looked a little shaky, it really wasn't that bad of a fight for Khan. Either way, I'll take the 2.5 Units. My buddy continues to impress. I'll try to remember to continue posting.

FTR: The above plays mentioned won't count in my "online record" because they were not posted before the fight, but that's fine because the money is real to me and that's what matters most!

[jcubs55]

Hey guys, it has been awhile, but I'm back now and talked to my buddy today about some upcoming fights. Gonna throw these out there for now, but great chance that there will be additions later:

Rich Franklin -161 risking 3.22 Units to win 2.0 Units
Jon Jones -284 risking 5.68 Units to win 2.0 Units
Miguel Torres -315 risking 6.3 Units to win 2.0 Units
Anderson Silva -243 risking 4.86 Units to win 2.0 Units

Tons of chalk but should all be winners... he also likes Mike Brown this Saturday, but I haven't booked that yet. Will keep in touch.

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Jon Jones -284 risking 5.68 Units to win 2.0 Units

So now attempting to win 4 units total on Jones

[sirchadwick1]

Wish you luck on Bones man. I'm on the other side w/ this one since I see a little value in Bader. I believe Jones should win, but I don't like his line... this fight is going to be closer than most think.

[ghost kid]

What book has Jones -284?


That's a good line - I am seeing 350 most places.

[Vaughany]

What book has Jones -284?


That's a good line - I am seeing 350 most places.

Assume that its from Sportbet as they had opening line at -230, only site as far as I know that has had better than -301.

[jcubs55]

Got the Bones line at pinny

2/5 Results:

3-1 +4.78 Units

YTD:

6-3 +13.32 Units

Play dated 3/19:

Jon Jones -202 risking 6.06 Units to win 3.0 Units

My friend has the highest opinion of Jones... higher than anyone else I've ever heard him speak of. He's basically convinced that if you bet Jones for the rest of his career blindly you will come out way ahead... Jones has a great chance to not lose for a loooong time...

Assuming GSP can hold off Shields, the subsequent fight against the Spider might be the best fight in UFC history!! So excited.

[jcubs55]

2/26:

Jon Fitch -186 risking 3.72 Units to win 2.0 Units
George Sotiropoulos -360 risking 7.2 Units to win 2.0 Units

GL

[jcubs55]

2/26 Results:

0-1-1 -7.2 Units

YTD:

6-4-1 +6.12 Units

Pretty frustrated with the Fitch result... first 2 rounds were close (I gave Penn the first and Fitch the second), and the third was just pure domination by Fitch... gotta give that fight to him but we get no profit to show for it, sigh.

3/3:

Mark Munoz -186 risking 2.79 Units to win 1.5 Units

3/5:

Rafael Cavalcante +184 risking 2.0 Units to win 3.68 Units

3/19:

Jon Jones -202 risking 6.06 Units to win 3.0 Units (Posted earlier)
Nate Marquardt -280 risking 2.8 Units to win 1.0 Unit

[jcubs55]

3/3:

Mark Munoz -186 risking 2.79 Units to win 1.5 Units (Posted earlier)

Adding:

Mark Munoz -172 risking 1.72 Units to win 1.0 Unit

To win 2.5 Units total

[jcubs55]

3/3 Results:

1-0 +2.5 Units

YTD:

7-4 +8.62 Units

3/5:

Rafael Cavalcante +184 risking 2.0 Units to win 3.68 Units (Posted earlier)

3/19:

Jon Jones -202 risking 6.06 Units to win 3.0 Units (Posted earlier)
Nate Marquardt -280 risking 2.8 Units to win 1.0 Unit (Posted earlier)

Adding:

Jon Jones -195 risking 1.95 Units to win 1.0 Unit (now to win 4.0 total)

[jcubs55]

3/5 Results:

0-1 -2.0 Units

YTD:

7-5 +6.62 Units

Had SEVENTY CENTS OF LINE VALUE ON THE DOLLAR!!! And zero profit to show for it... I guess that's just how it works sometimes. As long as we keep getting our money in ahead we'll be in the green long-term, just not this time. Oh well, can't wait for the Bones fight.

[jcubs55]

3/19 Results:

2-0 +5.0 Units

YTD:

9-5 +11.62 Units

[jcubs55]

My friend has the highest opinion of Jones... higher than anyone else I've ever heard him speak of. He's basically convinced that if you bet Jones for the rest of his career blindly you will come out way ahead... Jones has a great chance to not lose for a loooong time...

Looks like my friend might be right here... showed it tonight!

[jcubs55]

Have been forgetting to post for awhile, sry. 6/11:

Mark Munoz -110 risking 3.3 Units to win 3.0 Units

Junior Dos Santos -156 risking 4.68 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

6/11 Results:

2-0 +6.0 Units

YTD:

11-5 +17.62 Units

Great line value on Munoz, who closed around -190. Nice footwork from JDS, and he pretty much had the fight won after that surge late in the first round. Solid night.

[jcubs55]

7/2:

Dominick Cruz -141 risking 7.05 Units to win 5.0 Units

My friend LOVES this wager... goin' big.