Ufc 118

[ayuntalo]

I'm looking forward to it..
And I've been searching our forums for 118 discussions and picks..

So can somebody give their insights or picks here?
Wanted to get good idea on bets to play because my ufc 116 and 117 plays did not went well..

I feel like Randy couture is a lock but literally no value..
I'm thinking I should watch his opponents boxing match to see if he has a slight chane of a lucky knockout punch and I will put a very very small play on that..

Also I feel like kenflo is like fitch, no one can beat them in their division except for gsp and bj.. Do you guys think I can load up on kenflo? Don't know much bout Maynard..

Also want to watch Penn vs Edgar one and see if I can place a small bet on edgar by decision..

Feel free to share your insights

[ayuntalo]

By the way I also like bj, just wanted to check out edgar's chances because he has the better odds..

And how bout Nate Diaz..I feel like I wanna put a play on him

[Vaughany]

I'm looking forward to it..
And I've been searching our forums for 118 discussions and picks..

So can somebody give their insights or picks here?
Wanted to get good idea on bets to play because my ufc 116 and 117 plays did not went well..

I feel like Randy couture is a lock but literally no value..
I'm thinking I should watch his opponents boxing match to see if he has a slight chane of a lucky knockout punch and I will put a very very small play on that..

Also I feel like kenflo is like fitch, no one can beat them in their division except for gsp and bj.. Do you guys think I can load up on kenflo? Don't know much bout Maynard..

Also want to watch Penn vs Edgar one and see if I can place a small bet on edgar by decision..

Feel free to share your insights

I personally would say that Maynard is more like Fitch as he has won his last six fights all by decision rather like Fitch! I think a lot of people are over looking Maynard, he is the only fighter who has beaten current champ Frankie Edgar and will have a wrestling advantage over Florian. I will most probably avoid bettin on either of them winning (although I have each of them in 2 separate parlays which I did ages ago), and instead go for a fight goes the distance prop bet as long as the odds are decent. Maynard managed to avoid gettin submitted by Diaz so I dont think Florian will be able to submit him. Maynard also has a great chin and Florian is hardly known for having knockout power. Meanwhile, Maynard rarely finishes anybody, Florian is very elusive, and has better BJJ so unlikely that Florian will lose by submission or TKO/KO. I see one of them winning by split decision...most probably Florian. But then I thought that Almeida/Hughes would go to decision last night so who knows!

I shall be avoiding the Couture/Toney fight I think. My underdog tip is Nik Lentz (+120 on most sites) against Andre Winner. Lentz will have strong wrestling advantage and as long as he doesnt try and stand with Winner for too long should be able to grind out a decision. Need to do more research on Lentz first tho before I commit to that. I'll also be making a play on Edgar winning by decision and possible making it a straddle by adding Penn by submission...could see Edgar getting rear-naked choked in late rounds this time round, if not I can only see another decision win for Edgar.

[Staten Ryan]

Still got do some research, but I love Florian in this one. Maynard is good, but i thought he had a hard time with Nate Diaz. I think Florian is just as good as nate on the ground, but his stand up is much better. He has vicious elbows from his back. Check out his fight against joe Lauzon. Joe took him down, and took vicious elbows to the top of the head. I will post my picks on my thread soon, come check it out. I am 5-0 on ufc 116 and 117..

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/554391-mma-new-thread.html

[Fitzel]

As much as i want Toney to beat Couture, I can't see it happening. He definently has a chance for a lucky knockout punch, he was an amazing boxer. If it goes past the first round Toney will get gassed and Couture will just take him down easily. Toney's conditioning has been a problem for him for awhile now.

[Vaughany]

New 9 minute preview for UFC 118...

http://www.mmaresolutions.com/ufc-118-edgar-vs-penn-2-in-depth-preview-video

Surprise suprise, BJ is moaning like a bitch again!

[lasker]

Also I feel like kenflo is like fitch, no one can beat them in their division except for gsp and bj.. Do you guys think I can load up on kenflo? Don't know much bout Maynard..

I agree, and I don't even know if Penn would beat him the second time around. I think Florian will win the title on his third attempt.

[Vaughany]

Who's taking Bader over Lil Nog? Im considering a medium sized play on Bader and Pearson double.

[KCJMAC]

Bader here, since Little Nog couldn't handle Jason Brilz, and Bader is better at everything than Brilz.

Plus, if the fight isn't going his way, Bader will use takedowns and stalling to win a decision. Little Nog doesn't have that option.

[Varker]

looking forward to this event.

[Vaughany]

Bader here, since Little Nog couldn't handle Jason Brilz, and Bader is better at everything than Brilz.

Plus, if the fight isn't going his way, Bader will use takedowns and stalling to win a decision. Little Nog doesn't have that option.

Yee tht's what I'm thinking, Bader should be able to overwhelm him as long as he doesnt do an Aaron Simpson and gas early! BTW no idea why I posted about this fight on this thread, its not even happening at 118!

[Kaladarus]

Who's taking Bader over Lil Nog? Im considering a medium sized play on Bader and Pearson double.

That should be a great play, I will likely make a similar one. If Bader comes to this fight with a good strategy it should be an easy win for him. Also Pearson has been looking amazing in all his fights.

[urge2kill]

I'm on Couture wins inside the distance -437. If 5Dimes posts a Couture by sub prop I'll probably put some on that too.

[LearningTree]

Bader here, since Little Nog couldn't handle Jason Brilz, and Bader is better at everything than Brilz.

Plus, if the fight isn't going his way, Bader will use takedowns and stalling to win a decision. Little Nog doesn't have that option.

Eh...don't agree. What really got Nog in trouble in that fight was the guillotine. Bader is not going to slap on guillotines like that. Brilz has been around for long time and has a lot better submission game than Bader.

[illmatick]

I'm actually leaning NOG here, hopefully I can get +150 before the fight

[Vaughany]

Plays I'll most likely be making:

BJ Penn by sub/Edgar by decision (depending on value)

Florian/Maynard to decision

Osipszak

Miller if -130 or better

[raydog]

its a nice card minus the circus side show match... how long does tony stay on his feet? 30 seconds maybe...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Nog/Bader is not till UFC 119, not this card

[illmatick]

I agree, and I don't even know if Penn would beat him the second time around. I think Florian will win the title on his third attempt.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Nice work to any of you that were able to hop on Miranda's opening line... damn near EV now... I didn't get a chance to snag that open

Nothing on this card is screaming value to me at the moment...

Am kinda keen to the Edgar by decision / Penn inside the distance play...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

yea Miranda open at +280 and looks like it fell pretty fast to +135. I really like this play too just re-watched his fights with Gerald Harris and Loiseau and i think his size and striking will give Maia trouble

[JuicedUp]

Anyone taking a shot on Toney?

[illmatick]

surprised to see the Miranda line jumping around so much, plan on adding more if it hits +170 again

[johnofthumb]

New to the forum and didn't read anything beside your initial post so sorry if I repeat anything said. With that said here is my take on UFC 118....I am a huge MMA fan and bet on it pretty consistantly....I post picks else where but stumbled across this site a few nights ago so figured Id chime in....

With your Randy Couture comment...you're right this is a fight and there is no such thing a lock...Should Couture win ? 100% absolutely....However this is VERY little value at the listed line (My local has -800 on Couture right now) This is a fight with an aging Couture going against a guy who while he has no MMA experience.....he does indeed have power. Catches him with a punch and it can spell problems. My suggestions from a wagering stand point...Pass on the fight and enjoy it....its history as its MMA vs Boxing.

On to probably one of maybe 2 or 3 fights I will be wagering on...Kenny Florian vs Gray Maynard. Florian is not like Fitch....in the fact that Florian will stand and strike...Fitch just will not. However this is a fight, I feel anyway, people have different take on it....Maynard CAN actually controll with wrestling the way Fitch does. Maynard has great takedowns and can be very boring on top....and while this may not please a lot of fans...someone like me who looks to bet MMA loves this style. If maynard goes the route I think he is going to go....the +135 I am seeing around books is GREAT value.

Main event: Believe it or not I see the value on BJ Penn. This guys was I believe 6 to 1 last time against Edgar and this is where I feel the line should be after an experienced fighter like Penn gets a look up close at his opponent. Edgar fought the perfect fight last time....and now Penn has seen it...and has been studying for it. Penn is the more talented fighter and while I have not finalized any plays yet....I have a feeling I will be laying the -295 or so...and I also see this line dropping so far....

First post on this site so i hope its somewhat helpful for you guys

[KCJMAC]

New lines are up for UFC 118 prelims:

Amilcar Alves +225
Mike Pierce -285
Dan Miller -240
John Salter +190
Gabe Ruediger +300
Joe Lauzon -400

[cankid]

Is there value on Edgar? at a nice + number?

[Vaughany]

Is there value on Edgar? at a nice + number?

by decision at +350 or better I may take.

[shady610]

Can it be 3 great shows in a row?

[squallsquall]

How is Miranda's takedown defense?

[illmatick]

Nice work to any of you that were able to hop on Miranda's opening line... damn near EV now... I didn't get a chance to snag that open Nothing on this card is screaming value to me at the moment... Am kinda keen to the Edgar by decision / Penn inside the distance play...

line jumped back up to +160 last night... Bookmaker and 5dimes

How is Miranda's takedown defense?

if I remember correctly, an elite wrestler like Gerald Harris was having some trouble getting him down

[squallsquall]

if I remember correctly, an elite wrestler like Gerald Harris was having some trouble getting him down

Just watched the match now, didn't look like Harris ever tried to shoot though...

[illmatick]

you're probably right, it's been some time since I watched the fight( i thought I remembered him shooting for a single leg against the cage at one point..guess not)

he's really quick and fluid on his feet though, Maia is going to have hell trying to get his hands on him

[Kaladarus]

I'm going to have to watch more fights with Miranda. Kind of like Maia at the current odds, but still haven't made a play.

[fastcrx]

Whats up fellas. Good to see alot of interest in this ufc. My early favs are K-flow and Coture. I plan on doing a write up for my picks in the next few days. Good luck to all

[autotide]

i'm gona put some points on a couture win