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Plays so far for tonight:
Watford/Millwall Both Teams to Score @ -187.
Watford have only kept two clean-sheets this season at home, while Millwall are highest scoring away team in league and have conceded as well as scored in every game that they've played away from home this season.
Parlay: Valencia moneyline & Milan PK (draw-no-bet) double (pays out about Evens)Comment -
Come on V Paddy has it @ -175. Dont drop the ball.
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Tailing but not as big as the other day. TY
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Another play:
Brazil Serie B: Sao Caetano PK @ +175 away at Criciuma, and also Sao Caetano +0.5 (win/draw) @ -133.
Reasons for playing this are two-fold: Firstly Criciuma are without their four top scorers and four key players in general... Ze Carlos is the top goal scorer in league with 26 goals in 27 games (suspended), Lucca has 11 goals in 26 games (suspended), Marlon has scored 6 in 30 appearances and is out, & finally Kleber (5 goals in 31 games) is also unavailable. Those four combined equate to approx' 66% of Criciuma's total goals scored this season so is a significant loss. Secondly, Sao Caetano have the best away record in the league with 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses. The next least amount of losses away from home are Vitoria and Criciuma who have lost 5 each. Sao Caetano's away record is in fact better than their home record which is obviously quite rare.
Reasons for not playing this: At the end of the day Criciuma are solid at home with 14 wins and 3 losses (no draws), and if they win the game they are guaranteed promotion. At same time Sao Caetano are still in with a chance of promotion and need to win to keep that alive so it's not like Criciuma are only one with something to play for.
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PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[105] INDIANAPOLIS -2½-135 (B+½)
[102] TOLEDO -260
[52241] TOTAL o2½-150
(MILLWALL FC vrs WATFORD FC)
[50205] SAO CAETANO - SP +220
30 / 356Comment -
This one could be a sucka bet but have to play it considering what the odds are on pinnacle in comparison to elsewhere. I'd say Zlatan would score approx 60% to 65% of time so happily take -138 (58%):
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score a goal @ -138 on pinnacle (Paris St. Germain at home to Dinamo Zagreb). Best line on any other site is -200. William Hill have it at -500!
Last edited by Vaughany; 11-06-12, 09:21 AM.Comment -
And another play!:
Milan/Malaga Over 2, 2.5 goals @ -122 on Pinnacle.
This game could well end up being very tight and being a 0-0 or 1-0 affair so smallish play. But with Milan needing a win and after reading Pellegrini's (Malaga Manager) comments I think we could see some goals at San Siro tonight....
Pellegrini's side have scored seven times and are the only team yet to concede a goal in the competition's group stage.
And Pellegrini said his team's approach would change little for the trip to the Milan's intimidating San Siro stadium.
"What I am sure is if a team is looking for a draw, that team loses," Pellegrini said.
"I have no doubt about that, and also this team is not created to go for a draw, it has never thought in a draw (kind of mentality).
"We will play our game from the beginning, to get the three points, to secure the qualification in here.
"Our main goal is not holding the result, but trying to beat Milan playing football.Comment -
Another few Brazil Serie B plays:
Gremio Barueri PK @ -151 at home to Ceara.
May not be the smartest play as Gremio are bottom of the league and have suffered some heavy defeats at home! I've also bet on their opponent a couple times this season as I liked their team - they had some solid experienced players such as Mota, Itamar, Apodi, Robert, Juca, Careca. However, Gremio are in a must win situation, although it's extremely unlikely that they can survive, they can still mathematically stay in the division if they win every one of their remaining 4 games. Ceara on the other-hand are sat exactly mid-table with no chance of promotion and no chance of relegation so very little to play for. So in terms of motivation you have to side with the home team who have to go out there tonight looking for the three-points. Ceara have released 14 players already including Itamar who scored against Gremio when Ceara won 2-0 at home earlier in season. Gremio also had a player sent off after 24 mins when they met before. Ceara have lost their last 5 games in the league and lost 5 out of last 6 away matches. They will also be without Joao Marcos, Apodi and Careca for this game tonight - 3 regular starters. Some youngsters like Luiz Henrique will play... granted this may actually be a good thing for Ceara as the youngsters like Luiz will probably be more motivated to perform and take their chance to impress the manager in these types of games then those that are tired from playing all season. So just because the team as a whole has nothing to play for doesn't necessarily mean individuals won't play the game of their lives and change the game. Plus for all I know players like Luiz Henrique could be the next Robinho or Neymar! Gremio Barueri have lost their last two games, one at home to America RN and last wknd away at fellow relegation candidates CRB, but again their lack of discipline didn't help as they had a player sent off in 64th minute, but were still able to pull a goal back in 85th minute even with 10 men but ended up losing 2-1. But before those two matches, Gremio had found some form, beating America Mineiro away, Criciuma away (one of only three teams to beat Criciuma at their ground), and drawing away at Bragantino. And at home they had beaten Ipatinga, and drew against Sao Caetano and Joinville. So in terms of form Gremio clearly have advantage as they have lost 2 out of last 8 whilst Ceara have lost 6 out of last 8. "Paul" over in soccer forum has over a grand on this play so I'm not the only one liking this!
Goias PK, -0.5 @ -124;
Atletico Paranaese -1 A.H. @ -133.Last edited by Vaughany; 11-06-12, 11:30 AM.Comment -
Zlatan to score now -190 on Pinnacle.This one could be a sucka bet but have to play it considering what the odds are on pinnacle in comparison to elsewhere. I'd say Zlatan would score approx 60% to 65% of time so happily take -138 (58%):
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score a goal @ -138 on pinnacle (Paris St. Germain at home to Dinamo Zagreb). Best line on any other site is -200. William Hill have it at -500!
One more Champions League play:
Dortmund to score over 0.5,1 goals @ -120 away at Real Madrid.Comment -
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Olympiakos PK @ -183 to beat Montpellier at home.Comment -
Odds out
I don't have sports book
v sad face emoticonComment -
this sucks. Lines are totally wrong, and i dont have any chance to correct them.Comment -
Tuck opened at +125!!!!! fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
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Matt Riddle already at 176...
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Hopefully! as long as its after the fight!Comment -
frankie boy?Comment -
Frankie edgarComment -
This one could be a sucka bet but have to play it considering what the odds are on pinnacle in comparison to elsewhere. I'd say Zlatan would score approx 60% to 65% of time so happily take -138 (58%):
Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score a goal @ -138 on pinnacle (Paris St. Germain at home to Dinamo Zagreb). Best line on any other site is -200. William Hill have it at -500!
Up and down night...ended up with just over £240 profit but was expecting better. The main play Sao Caetano PK and +0.5 pretty much saved me...they ended up beating Criciuma 2-0 comfortably, probably should of just stuck with that in Brazil league as other three plays weren't as good with one push, one half-loss, and one-full loss. Most frustrating one was Zlatan to score though, PSG won 4-0 and of course Zlatan didn't score but did set-up every one of the four goals! Clearly isn't as greedy as some may think!
Winnerz: Dortmund Over 0.5, 1 goals; Sao Caetano PK, Sao Caetano +0.5, & Olympiakos PK.
Voided: Gremio Barueri PK
Half-loss: Goias PK, -0.5; Milan/Malaga Over 2,2.5 goals
Loserz: Ibrahimovic to score; Atletico Paranaense -1; Watford/Millwall BTTS.
Still have the Valencia/Milan PK double pending but now just a straight up play on Valencia as Milan drew 1-1.Last edited by Vaughany; 11-07-12, 04:43 AM.Comment -
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Parlay (double): Chelsea/Shakhtar Both Teams to Score & Anzhi PK.
Shakhtar beat Chelsea 2-1 at home a couple weeks ago and I expect tonight will have a couple of goals as well. It's been almost a year since Shakhtar last failed to score a goal in any competitive game when they lost 2-0 to Porto in Champ's League last season. Chelsea have conceded in each of their last 6 games and scored plenty of goals. Small play though as it could be tight, especially if John Terry is back for Chelsea in defence. But with Shakhtar's Brazilian flair and Mihiktikyan I just find it hard to imagine them not scoring against any team in the Champion's League. Anzhi meanwhile will be at home against Liverpool in Europa League on Thurs night. According to reports Liverpool will not be taking Luis Suarez and Gerrard with them to Russia so without them the chances of winning are decreased considerably.
Last edited by Vaughany; 11-07-12, 09:53 AM.Comment -
Tried to tail and I failed
Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 11/8/12 12:00pm European Cup Soccer 102 Anzhi Makhachkala (UEFA-Europa) -½ -131* vs Liverpool (UEFA-Europa)
Pending 11/7/12 2:45pm European Cup Soccer 51 Shakhtar Donetsk (UCL)/Chelsea (UCL) 1st Half Over 1 -135*Comment -
They aren't bad plays though to be fair!Comment -
Grant vs wiman! Two of the most user appreciated fighter this and bocek dos anjos have me pumpedComment -
yeah awesome fightsComment -
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Juventus/Nordsjaelland Under 3,3.5 goals @ -106.
I think Juve may go through a spell where they struggle to score as many goals as they have in recent times. We were terrible agaisnt Inter at wknd and sometimes teams do bounce back from a big loss with a big win which is certainly possible against a side like Nordsjaelland so only betting small. But I think it will be 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1
Galatasaray to score Over 1 goal away at Cluj @ -130.Last edited by Vaughany; 11-07-12, 03:04 PM.Comment -
Chelsea and Shakhtar both score in first ten minutes! Should of had more faith in the play and gone bigger!Added:
Parlay (double): Chelsea/Shakhtar Both Teams to Score & Anzhi PK.
Shakhtar beat Chelsea 2-1 at home a couple weeks ago and I expect tonight will have a couple of goals as well. It's been almost a year since Shakhtar last failed to score a goal in any competitive game when they lost 2-0 to Porto in Champ's League last season. Chelsea have conceded in each of their last 6 games and scored plenty of goals. Small play though as it could be tight, especially if John Terry is back for Chelsea in defence. But with Shakhtar's Brazilian flair and Mihiktikyan I just find it hard to imagine them not scoring against any team in the Champion's League. Anzhi meanwhile will be at home against Liverpool in Europa League on Thurs night. According to reports Liverpool will not be taking Luis Suarez and Gerrard with them to Russia so without them the chances of winning are decreased considerably.
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Not hedging.Comment -
Liverpool's squad for this game is even weaker than I thought. In addition to Gerrard and Suarez, they are also leaving first choice keeper Reina at home, best centre-back Daniel Agger, full back Glen Johnson, two main centre-mids Nuri Sahin and Joe Allen, and hot prospect Raheem Sterling. All of those players made an appearance in the 1-0 home win few weeks ago. Doesnt mean Liverpool cant scrape at least a draw but Anzhi should be beating the Liverpool team that plays tonight more often than 56% of time as your odds indicate.Last edited by Vaughany; 11-08-12, 05:31 AM.Comment -
Plays for tonight:
Betting on Europa League can either be a goldmine or lead your to making sucka bets because it's is not taken seriously by some of the bigger clubs involved and teams tend to rest key players due to important league games coming up in following weekend. So consequently keeping stakes smallish for following plays:
Levante +1 A.H. away at Twente @ -140;
IMO Twente's home advantage is being slightly over-valued here even if they are very solid at home. Levante are a legit mid-level Spanish team sitting in top 7 of La Liga. More pertinently they beat Twente 3-0 at home and are taking the Europa League more seriously then some other teams in the big leagues. They are also in good form, aside from losing in the Copa Del Rey to a low level team which was not good (although they rested some key players) they have won 4 and drew 1 out of last 5 games in the league, including beating arch-rivals Valencia 2-0, beating Getafe away 1-0, and drawing 0-0 away at one of the strongest home sides in the league in Sevilla. So I'd not be surprised if they get at least a draw tonight.
Newcastle PK away at Club Brugge @ +103;
Newcastle are one of the aforementioned bigger clubs that aren't taking this cup as seriously as others. Nonetheless, Club Brugge are a club that are in quite a bad patch with 5 losses in a row and sacked their manager a couple days ago. Also, Newcastle will have Tiote and Collocini playing as they are suspended for league game coming up so don't need to be rested. If Newcastle were starting Ba or Cisse up front I'd go bigger on this but they are playing the Ameobi brothers up front so won't be as dangerous.
Neftchi Baku +1 A.H. at home to Rubin Kazan @ -134
Neftchi players such as Flavio have been saying that this is biggest game of season for them and that they have a "special feeling!" going in to this game. They have only lost 1 out of last 9 home games and that loss was to Inter so no embarrasment there and was expected. They lost 2-1 away Rubin, so I'm thinking worse case scenario at home is they lose by one goal and stake is returned. But I think they can scrape a 1-1 draw or something tonight.
Partizan/Inter Over 2.5 goals @ +110
Partizan score goals at home and need to win this. Inter have been better away from home this season than they have at San Siro and are scoring plenty of goals. Could see Inter winning 2-1.
Parlay (treble): Anzhi PK, Leverkusen, & Plzen.
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