Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**Vaughany** · 07-11-12, 09:11 AM

Just off to book a room at the Hilton

**DirtyX** · 07-11-12, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC on Fuel TV 4 play:

26 units on Damacio Page -130 to win 20 units.

Can't resist a play on the "Angel of Death" in this one. I capped it closer to what Kalikas released him at (-165). I believe Joey Odessa released him at -225 on sportsbook. People are high on Bruce LeRoy due to his clear improvements since TUF and since moving down a weight division, Page's line might even get better than -130. There is a clear difference in level of competition that these two guys have faced. Yes, Damacio has loss 3 on the bounce and 4 out of his last 6 but those losses have been against top 5 guys in the weight-class in Bowles, Mighty Mouse, and Pickett, while he has beaten another solid BW in Scott Jorgensen and also Marcos Galvao who is one of the best 135ers in Bellator now. The risk with betting against Caceres is that he is a high volume striker and he also has the ability to submit if he gets taken down, which is even more of a risk with a guy like Page who has shown questionable sub defence before. However, a couple of the sub losses such as most recent one to Pickett and the Bowles rematch were after he got dropped from punches - and as Nunya rightly pointed out in the thread, Bruce LeRoy isnt as powerful a striker as likes of Pickett or Bowles. Caceres also appears to prefer to attack off his back with triangles and armbars rather than go for guillotines during a takedown attempt (which appear to be Page's kryponite). This isn't to say that Caceres cant or wont catch him in a guillotine but I think it's safe to say it's not as much as a threat compared to likes of Bowles, Faber, Jorgensen's of the division. Page himself isn't just a hard-hitting brawler, he does have a reasonably good offensive grappling game as well. He certainly has the ability to take Caceres down if he wants to and will threaten with GnP and chokes. Aside from the submission threat of Bruce LeRoy, as mentioned above, there is also the risk of Caceres getting a decision by picking Page apart just by throwing higher volume and more variety of strikes like he did against Figueroa (Caceres would of clearly won that 29-28 if not for the nut shots). Page has thought a rangy striker (for BW standards) before in Campuzano who was 5ft10 with 70" reach and had no issues getting inside and hurting Campuzano then taking him down and choking him out. Page is also not as much as a plodder as Figueroa and as already mentioned will mix in take-downs and sub attempts unlike Figueroa is basically just a Muay Thai striker with reasonably solid submission defence, so I don't think it's necessarily a given that Caceres will win the decision if it does go the distance. Overall, Im relying on Caceres not having the power to hurt Page standing and Page having enough experience to not get subbed. This may well be one of those fights were I look back after and think it was a terrible play, so it's risky but I think worth a pop at -130.

Solid breakdown. I was really surprised to see Page at -130/-140, as I put him at about -180 range. I just can't bring myself to throw more than a sprinkle on Page, even though I auto-fade LeRoy. GL tonight.

Ticket#:71723207
Jul 11 07:40 PM

INTERNET / -1

Jul 11 10:07 AM

MU

STRAIGHT BET
[24176] D PAGE -140
(A CACERES vrs D PAGE)

$70 / $50

**PunisherIND** · 07-11-12, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Just off to book a room at the Hilton

lol, some nice sluts there.

**Dad** · 07-11-12, 10:44 AM

Solid work in this thread, Vaughany.

**BIGDAY** · 07-11-12, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by Dad

Solid work in this thread, Vaughany.

Dad, can't come in here unless you post us some goodies....

**everythingred** · 07-11-12, 11:55 AM

I bet on Caceres because Page is coming off of 3 straight losses to submissions:

Damacio Page - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damacio_Page

Bruce Leeroy has somewhat of a submission game so I'm taking the risk at the odds given to him.

**Vitooch** · 07-11-12, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by everythingred

I bet on Caceres because Page is coming off of 3 straight losses to submissions:

Damacio Page - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damacio_Page

Bruce Leeroy has somewhat of a submission game so I'm taking the risk at the odds given to him.

V, cancel your bet. Page has lost three straight. Never thought to check the Wiki?

**spargament** · 07-11-12, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

V, cancel your bet. Page has lost three straight. Never thought to check the Wiki?

He's right V, Wiki DOES say Page is on a HUGE SNIDE..we all just wanted to give you the heads up because we thought you weren't aware.

well played Vitooch.

**getlucky2win** · 07-11-12, 12:57 PM

i wasnt gonna tail v on this 1 but everythingred changed my mind. 3 straight submission losses. hes due for a win.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-11-12, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

i wasnt gonna tail v on this 1 but everythingred changed my mind. 3 straight submission losses. hes due for a win.

Heh, I love this.

Come to a roulette table where its hit black 5 times in a row. Half the table shouts "Bet on black, its hot!" Other half says, "Bet on red, its due!".

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-11-12, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Heh, I love this.

Come to a roulette table where its hit black 5 times in a row. Half the table shouts "Bet on black, its hot!" Other half says, "Bet on red, its due!".

Well on the positive side ita exactly split with halves
I
would be the loner betting on 0 yelling "it's bound to hit, black is too hot and red is too cold"

**getlucky2win** · 07-11-12, 01:29 PM

i was just bullshittin. i always tail V. and u know this man! nunya who u got 2night?

**NunyaBidness** · 07-11-12, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

i was just bullshittin. i always tail V. and u know this man! nunya who u got 2night?

Yep, not criticizing you, just reminded me of how some people really think.

I think the Vaughany/Nunya coalition is pretty close on plays this time around.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-11-12, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Well on the positive side ita exactly split with halves
I
would be the loner betting on 0 yelling "it's bound to hit, black is too hot and red is too cold"

There is a goldilocks and the three bears joke to be made in there somewhere.

**Beelzebubzy** · 07-11-12, 01:39 PM

Well played NB well played

Always appreciate the Light sided humor on this board

**Vaughany** · 07-11-12, 02:20 PM

Got Caceres/Page doesnt go distance at +160 on Sportbet then they took it down. Have to wait and see if they claim it was a bad line

**Vaughany** · 07-11-12, 03:00 PM

Should add that Page has also had Dodson as his main sparring partner in this camp...very beneficial to have somebody as quick and unorthodox as Dodson when preparing for somebody like Bruce leRoy

**Grabaka** · 07-11-12, 04:51 PM

**Grabaka** · 07-11-12, 04:52 PM

All that mumbo Jumo with caceres and page is just to move it from accounts

**Grabaka** · 07-11-12, 04:58 PM

Good luck

**Vaughany** · 07-11-12, 05:45 PM

Forgot to post this...

Ticket STRAIGHTBET

07/11/2012 @ 05:05 PM

MU

[24183] RAFAEL NATAL PK+150
(RAFAEL NATAL vrs ANDREW CRAIG)

50.00

75.00

**Dad** · 07-11-12, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Dad, can't come in here unless you post us some goodies....

Bigday, what was I thinking?

**Vaughany** · 07-11-12, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Forgot to post this...

Ticket STRAIGHTBET

07/11/2012 @ 05:05 PM

MU

[24183] RAFAEL NATAL PK+150
(RAFAEL NATAL vrs ANDREW CRAIG)

50.00

75.00

Ouch! Was going to go a lot bigger on this initially...glad I didnt!

**BIGDAY** · 07-11-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Dad

Bigday, what was I thinking?

**everythingred** · 07-11-12, 08:35 PM

Look who was right....Bruce Leeroy did decently on TUF and I saw his submission game in street fights on youtube. Come on guys, 3 straight submission losses was the tell of the day.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-11-12, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by everythingred

Look who was right....Bruce Leeroy did decently on TUF and I saw his submission game in street fights on youtube. Come on guys, 3 straight submission losses was the tell of the day.

None of those submission losses were anything like this one. It's like comparing someone who's had TKO stoppages due to ground and pound with falling tree KOs.

Granted, Caceres was definitely the right side.

**rapistberger84** · 07-11-12, 10:59 PM

vaugany is past his prime...he's old.

He's like Chuck and Wanderlei when their chins were all worn out. It's only a matter of time before vaugany has to retire.

**NunyaBidness** · 07-11-12, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by rapistberger84

vaugany is past his prime...he's old.

He's like Chuck and Wanderlei when their chins were all worn out. It's only a matter of time before vaugany has to retire.

Wotsamatta? V take your candy in 5th grade?

**Vitooch** · 07-12-12, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by everythingred

Look who was right....Bruce Leeroy did decently on TUF and I saw his submission game in street fights on youtube. Come on guys, 3 straight submission losses was the tell of the day.

It wasn't that you were on the wrong side, it was the fact that you used a fighter's wiki as your main argument for him winning.

**everythingred** · 07-12-12, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

It wasn't that you were on the wrong side, it was the fact that you used a fighter's wiki as your main argument for him winning.

I could've used Sherdog to show you his last fights; it was to reference it. And my main point was seeing Bruce Leeroy's submission skills seeing him on TUF and his unsanctioned fights. The fact that he had a submission game and that Page lost 3 in a row to submissions, it was kind of a no-brainer.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 07-12-12, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by everythingred

I could've used Sherdog to show you his last fights; it was to reference it. And my main point was seeing Bruce Leeroy's submission skills seeing him on TUF and his unsanctioned fights. The fact that he had a submission game and that Page lost 3 in a row to submissions, it was kind of a no-brainer.

**Mercersux** · 07-12-12, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by everythingred

I could've used Sherdog to show you his last fights; it was to reference it. And my main point was seeing Bruce Leeroy's submission skills seeing him on TUF and his unsanctioned fights. The fact that he had a submission game and that Page lost 3 in a row to submissions, it was kind of a no-brainer.

You tell em BOY !!!!!

**Vaughany** · 07-12-12, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by everythingred

Look who was right....Bruce Leeroy did decently on TUF and I saw his submission game in street fights on youtube. Come on guys, 3 straight submission losses was the tell of the day.

Congrats
lol I think Kimbo Slice also had a decent submission game in streetfights!

**Vaughany** · 07-12-12, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by rapistberger84

vaugany is past his prime...he's old.

He's like Chuck and Wanderlei when their chins were all worn out. It's only a matter of time before vaugany has to retire.

haha

PrideUfc love it

**AdamB** · 07-12-12, 03:02 AM

I haven't watched the fights yet, I'm at work today so won't see them till later. Was it domination by Caceres or did he just catch him? Personally, I feel he's an ENTIRELY different fighter from TUF and yes I have seen him triangle some random bum in a backyard fight, but that means utterly nothing. Despite not securing any submissions in his last 3, his guard and his ground game in general really impressed me in all of them - anyone that can hang with Hettes for any amount of time on the ground knows what they are doing, and that was 2 fights before this one.

Glad I went with my heart on this one, got a little nervous the more people I saw going for Page. I had Caceres, Weidman, Weidman/Maia ITD and Njokuani - Njokuani I wasn't confident about and I should've given it a miss. Oh well.