Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Vaughany]

Wow, everyone is officially on Pierce plus the juice. You all did see their first fight, right?

Guessin people are basing it on Pierce evolving more since that fight

[jacktheknife]

Guessin people are basing it on Pierce evolving more since that fight

Yeah, pierce is the kind of guy who can hang, and he's the better striker. But Bradley is quite apparently the better wrestler and he's been living at the Alliance gym. He almost took one from Natal on slim notice in a weight division he had no business in. I'm not seeing the -315 fav here.

[Vaughany]

Yeah should be closer to -200 IMO. I got him at +250 tho so all good!

[TheCalculator]

Yeah should be closer to -200 IMO. I got him at +250 tho so all good!

How in God's Glory did you score him at +250?

[Educ8d Degener8]

Yeah should be closer to -200 IMO. I got him at +250 tho so all good!

How the f*ck did that happen?! Dude opened -500...

[NunyaBidness]

How the f*ck did that happen?! Dude opened -500...

Gotta have access to the UK books where the linesmakers are drooling on the keyboards.

[Eccocide]

Pierce at +250 is crazy. cant believe they didnt void it lol.

Adding:

Dos Santos Inside the Distance (+210) 1.5 units to win 3.15 units

[NunyaBidness]

Pierce at +250 is crazy. cant believe they didnt void it lol.

Gotta be careful though. Some books will freeroll you, not cancel it unless it wins. I think its smart to not arb these lines when you get them unless you know how the book usually reacts.

[Vaughany]

Gotta be careful though. Some books will freeroll you, not cancel it unless it wins. I think its smart to not arb these lines when you get them unless you know how the book usually reacts.

Was the opening line on William Hill. And yeaa tht's what they may well be doing. Although when I confirmed the bet it got referred to a trader and it still got accepted. Then I even spoke to their customer services and said that I was concerned about the line reversal and if my bet would be void and the woman said it would be settled as per the odds I placed the bet on. So I've got some collateral in case they do pull a fast one!

[Eccocide]

Boooooom goes the dynamite! Yaaaa junior!!

[Eccocide]

Another solid night of results. Hope everyone did well.

UFC on Fox Results: +4.15 units

[Vaughany]

Adding:

UFC 139:

Wanderlei Silva (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units

I'm close to pulling the trigger on Wanderlei at +120 hedged with Cung KO of the Night. I'm also liking Hendo at similar number and think there is a decent chance at least one of the two are victorious. I'm not ready to join the "Wanderlei's chin is shot" bandwagon yet - don't wanna make the same mistake that I admittedly made with Nogueira. Although I do think Wanderlei is very battle-worn and doesn't have a granite chin or perhaps the durability that he used to have, but getting clipped and finished by one of the hardest hitters in the division in Leben is no joke. Was only 18 months ago that he went three rounds with Bisping and got a very close win. I also think Wanderlei will be smarter this time, I think he'll look to catch one of Cung's kicks and trip him to the ground (as he did against Bisping early in the second round and utilise his ground-game). Surely the time spent working on his wrestling with Munoz at Reign and Kings MMA will have had some sort of impact on his fight IQ!

[TheCalculator]

I'm close to pulling the trigger on Wanderlei at +120 hedged with Cung KO of the Night.

I'm planning on the exact opposite. lol

[Vaughany]

I'm planning on the exact opposite. lol

ha I may well change my mind and do the opposite! The fact that Im thinking about it so much suggests that I'll probably avoid it all together!

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Dos Anjos (+165) 2 units to win 3.3 units
Silva (+130) 2 units to win 2.6 units
Lawlor (+284) 1 unit to win 2.84 units

[Eccocide]

I'm close to pulling the trigger on Wanderlei at +120 hedged with Cung KO of the Night. I'm also liking Hendo at similar number and think there is a decent chance at least one of the two are victorious. I'm not ready to join the "Wanderlei's chin is shot" bandwagon yet - don't wanna make the same mistake that I admittedly made with Nogueira. Although I do think Wanderlei is very battle-worn and doesn't have a granite chin or perhaps the durability that he used to have, but getting clipped and finished by one of the hardest hitters in the division in Leben is no joke. Was only 18 months ago that he went three rounds with Bisping and got a very close win. I also think Wanderlei will be smarter this time, I think he'll look to catch one of Cung's kicks and trip him to the ground (as he did against Bisping early in the second round and utilise his ground-game). Surely the time spent working on his wrestling with Munoz at Reign and Kings MMA will have had some sort of impact on his fight IQ!

Honestly, I don't see the reasoning for the line movement towards Le in this one. As so, I've added 2 more units on Wanderlei. Le hasn't fought in 16 months or so, and only 3 times in the last 3.5 years. He's more of a movie star than he is a fighter and his training suffers because of it regardless of what he says. His toughest competition was a way-past-his-prime Frank Shamrock. As well, he's very one dimensional. Is he great at that dimension? Sure - his kicks are amazing. But I don't think thats enough to make him a fav in this fight. He's never had good cardio and usually slows down quite a bit after the first half of the fight. He relies on his opponents standing with him and giving him the distance to pull those kicks off. Wanderlei is not going go give him the chance to do that. He's going to close that distance, get in close and work him in the clinch. Le isn't a puncher, he doesnt have power in his hands and in tight I think he's going to struggle. I think Wanderlei's pace is going to be too much for him to handle. Wanderlei may not have the chin he used to, but he isnt going to get knocked out by just any guy that hits him. He has said this is the more important fight of his life, his trainers have insisted he follows the gameplan (we'll see if that actually happens), and I think he knows he cant just throw down with reckless abandon. I guess we will see Saturday! I cant see Cung finishing him unless he lands a flush head kick. I've never been a Cung believer and Im not going to start now lol.

I'm planning on the exact opposite. lol

I agree...if you are going to do any sort of hedge in this fight, I wouldnt do it with Cung by KO or KO of the night. I think if he wins it will be by a close decision. Thats just me tho lol.

[TheCalculator]

I think a lot of people are looking at Le's record and forgetting his PRE-MMA days. The guy's been a professional fighter for a VERY, VERY long time.

The guy wrestled at state championships in the late 80's and fought pro throughout the 90's. 16-0 as a kickboxer.

[Eccocide]

I know his past, his championships in Sanshou, other martial arts, etc. IMO, that really doesnt do much for him fighting MMA at 40, part time while filming various movie roles. And with regards to his wrestling, I believe he wrestled at state for Junior college, not NCAA level and I really dont know how much anyone can put into that now lol. GL with whatever you go with!

[TheCalculator]

I know his past, his championships in Sanshou, other martial arts, etc. IMO, that really doesnt do much for him fighting MMA at 40, part time while filming various movie roles. And with regards to his wrestling, I believe he wrestled at state for Junior college, not NCAA level and I really dont know how much anyone can put into that now lol. GL with whatever you go with!

Striking, perception, footwork, evading strikes, agility, co-ordination -- all of these attributes carry over into MMA.

I like the fact that he's training at AKA.

[Eccocide]

I wasnt stating that his past has no effect on his abilities or have no carry over effect to MMA. I was eluding more to the fact that those competitions and championships came over a decade ago when he was deep into competition. A person's ability to maintain that level of ability correlates to their willingness to continue to train at that level and work towards progression. He hasnt shown that dedication in a long time IMO.

I believe he's always split his training between AKA and his own gym but I could be wrong. Cant remember off the top of my head.

[TheCalculator]

I wasnt stating that his past has no effect on his abilities or have no carry over effect to MMA. I was eluding more to the fact that those competitions and championships came over a decade ago when he was deep into competition. A person's ability to maintain that level of ability correlates to their willingness to continue to train at that level and work towards progression. He hasnt shown that dedication in a long time IMO.

I believe he's always split his training between AKA and his own gym but I could be wrong. Cant remember off the top of my head.

His gym is an AKA gym. His affiliation is deep.

[Eccocide]

I know..him and Mendez go way back. But I meant split time between his gym and time with Mendez's AKA. From what I've heard for this fight he's spent more time away from his own gym and more with mendez which I think its an upside for him. Getting too comfortable in your own gym seems to be a downfall for a lot of fighters.

Anyway, gunna watch the countdown. Rare I get a night in and I've spent most of it on the comp lol.

[Vaughany]

Cung Le didn't really have a choice about training at his gym - all the decent fighters like Rumble have left because there wasn't any competition

[The HOFF]

Adding:

Dos Anjos (+165) 2 units to win 3.3 units
Silva (+130) 2 units to win 2.6 units
Lawlor (+284) 1 unit to win 2.84 units

I'm on Dos Anjos good size and also took Lawlor. I have not been too impressed with Weidman. I don't think his wrestling has translated well to MMA. Lawlor by guillotine!

[illmatick]

I'd be shocked if he submits Weidman. Could definitely see a tko,though.

[Eccocide]

I'm on Dos Anjos good size and also took Lawlor. I have not been too impressed with Weidman. I don't think his wrestling has translated well to MMA. Lawlor by guillotine!

Glad to here it hoff. Lets cash tomorrow

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Kampmann (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
Torres/Pace Under 2.5 Rounds (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Maconald by Sub (+357) 1 unit to win 3.57 units
Lawlor +3.5 pts (+145) 1.25 units to win 1.8125 units
Torres / Baczynski-Brown Over 1.5 Rounds 2-fight parlay (+103) 2 units to win 2.06 units
Faber/Bowles FOTN (+400) 0.6 units to win 2.4 units

UFC 139 Recap:

Silva (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units & Silva (+130) 2 units to win 2.6 units
Dos Anjos (+165) 2 units to win 3.3 units
Lawlor (+284) 1 unit to win 2.84 units
Lawlor +3.5 pts (+145) 1.25 units to win 1.8125 units
Kampmann (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
Torres/Pace Under 2.5 Rounds (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Maconald by Sub (+357) 1 unit to win 3.57 units
Torres / Baczynski-Brown Over 1.5 Rounds 2-fight parlay (+103) 2 units to win 2.06 units
Faber/Bowles FOTN (+400) 0.6 units to win 2.4 units

That should be it. Might add a little more on a couple plays depending on line movement.

[Vaughany]

Good to see u on Kampmann as well

[jacktheknife]

Adding:

Dos Anjos (+165) 2 units to win 3.3 units
Silva (+130) 2 units to win 2.6 units
Lawlor (+284) 1 unit to win 2.84 units

With you on all counts. Going against Kampmann, though. Story just looks like sprawl-n-brawler poison. Afflictions during training camp don't help, either.

[Eccocide]

Terrible night so far for me so far lol. Not chasing but I told myself I'd add if wanderlei went to +160.

Adding:

Silva (+164) 2 units to win 3.28 units.

[Eccocide]

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Vaughany]

Great decision adding on Wanderlei...maybe the sherdoggers and fanboys will stop saying tht fighters are finished after one KO loss from now on!!

[Eccocide]

Great decision adding on Wanderlei...maybe the sherdoggers and fanboys will stop saying tht fighters are finished after one KO loss from now on!!

haha ya for sure. I was contemplating putting even more on him but I didnt want to get to crazy with it. It was still my biggest or second biggest play of the year so im happy it hit! Saved me from a bad night lol.

[Eccocide]

UFC 139 Results: +1.43 units

Not a great night. Had some unlucky breaks but at least my big play cashed.

[Eccocide]

TUF 14 Finale:

Dodson (+190) 1.5 units to win 2.85 units
Brimmage (+140) 1.5 units to win 2.1 units
Delorme (+104) 1.5 units to win 1.56 units
Albert (+235) 1 unit to win 2.35 units