UFC on Versus 1: Vera vs Jones

[pubster77]

Heres a preview. Theyve been hot and cold. Interesting to see how they do on this card:

http://www.mmaranked.com/news_jones_vera_preview.html

[Rod_M]

we need a contest for this one

There will be one

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

jon jones -271
brandon vera +211

gabriel gonzaga +225
unior dos santos -285

paul buentello +305
cheick kongo -405

alessio sakara +110
james irvin -140

shannon gugerty +280
clay guida -350

eliot marshall +175
vladimir matyushenko -215

daniel roberts +185
john howard -235

chase gormley +150
brendan schaub -190

julio paulino +285
mike pierce -355

jason brilz -160
eric schafer +130

[Eccocide]

Like the price on Schafer. Scares me that the line has move so much against him already. Will wait a little more to see how it goes.

[Eccocide]

Will be making a play on Sakara. Hoping the line comes back a bit. Looks like he got hammered down early and I missed the opening line.

[36mafia]

i need to start playing at bookmaker

[JuicedUp]

yea I think the wrong guy is favored in that Irvin vs Sakara fight...

[36mafia]

odds out for 5 dimes
early leans on jones, buentello, sakara, marshall, schafer
expect a blog write up soon

[mrhappypants]

jones has wayyyyyy too much hype for being so young...vera will win

[Rod_M]

How many books have the full card odds? I could only see Bookmaker/Cris and 5Dimes, Pinny and Greek only have the main 3 fights.

[36mafia]

diggin the avatar rod. but not that many books have the odds up. check out this site, software isnt up to par with sbr but it gets the job done in regards to mma

http://bestfightodds.com/

[Rod_M]

diggin the avatar rod. but not that many books have the odds up. check out this site, software isnt up to par with sbr but it gets the job done in regards to mma
http://bestfightodds.com/

Thanks! that is a neat site indeed, not even Donbest has the full card odds

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

There will be one

whats happening with this contest? is it still going on. This card is on Sunday night but, hopefully contest is for more than 50 SBR points

[Vrakas]

jones will loose this fight so sure so he should focus on getting someone he can beat on the next fight.i would suggest that he fights useless tito ,or dana white.

[The HOFF]

PLAYS

Jones / Dos Santos / Kongo Parlay +140 (5u to win 7u)
Jason Brilz -150 (3u to win 2u)
Chase Gormley +210 (1u to win 2.1u)

[smarmy]

i may have to lay something on sakara. can't believe is the underdog.

[The HOFF]

The full weigh-in results included:

MAIN CARD

• Jon Jones (206) vs. Brandon Vera (204)
• Junior Dos Santos (238) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (255)
• Paul Buentello (246) vs. Cheick Kongo (237)
• James Irvin (185) vs. Alessio Sakara (185)

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Shannon Gugerty (155) vs. Clay Guida (155)
• Eliot Marshall (204) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (205)
• Darren Elkins (155) vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig (155)
• John Howard (170) vs. Daniel Roberts (169)
• Chase Gormley (265) vs. Brendan Schaub (245)
• Julio Paulino (170) vs. Mike Pierce (170)
• Jason Brilz (205) vs. Eric Schafer (205)

[The HOFF]

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[The HOFF]

[Fissics]

OVER/UNDER PLAYS:
6.00* Vera\Jones OVER 2.5 (-150)
5.60* Gonzaga\Dos Santos UNDER 1.5 (-140)
5.40* Irvin\Sakara UNDER 1.5 (-108)
4.17* Kongo\Buentello UNDER 1.5 (+120)

[The HOFF]

Added another play on Kongo

Jones/JDS/Kongo Parlay +140 (5u to win 7u)
Jason Brilz -150 (3u to win 2u)
Chase Gormley +210 (1u to win 2.1u)
Cheick Kongo wins by KO/TKO -160 (8u to win 5u)

[RobbReport]

There will be one

i can't access that thread for some reason.

[36mafia]

MMA YTD: 11 - 0 +19.02X
-------------------

47460811-13/17/10 11:12am$20.00$32.00
Pending3/21/10 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1503 Eliot Marshall +160* vs Vladimir Matyushenko
47460763-13/17/10 11:08am$20.00$24.00
Pending3/21/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Alessio Sakara +120* vs James Irvin
47449298-13/16/10 11:30pm$10.00$32.50
Pending3/21/10 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Paul Buentello +325* vs Cheick Kongo
47448828-13/16/10 11:29pm$50.00$20.40
Pending3/21/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Jon Jones -245* vs Brandon Vera

[GuidaClayAllDay]

2010 Tally:
x < -200: 5-0 100%
-200 = x < EVEN: 6-3 67%
EVEN = x = +200: 2-3-1 40%
+200 < x: 0-1 0%

2010 YTD Since Joining SBR Forum: $0

UFC on Versus 1:

Jon Jones 3u to win 1.66u (combo of Jones -205 via sportsbook and Vera +240 via bodog)
Vera will struggle to find his range against the longer Jones, and Jones will likely be able to put Vera on his back based on what we've seen from him so far. Vera will be out of his comfort zone, as he won't be able to use knees as effectively as he has in the past, and staying in one place like he usually does will allow Jones to pick him apart. I think anything under -300 for Jones has value and anything below +300 for Vera is -EV.

Eliot Marshall .6u to win 1.1u (+185 via sportsbook)
Marshall was able to win a somewhat controversial split dec win over a talented wrestler in Jason Brilz. He did so by constantly staying out of range (arguably running away) and successfully stuffing Brilz's takedowns. This match by itself presents a blueprint in how he could pull the upset over Matyushenko. Maty's striking looked good against Pokrajac, but Pokrajac's striking defense is so terrible that Maty landed a large percentage of punches that he threw. Matyshenko may also show up just as defensive as Marshall if he can't find his range early (see Maty vs Lil Nog). I expect this to be relatively boring, and if Marshall can stuff Maty's takedowns, Marshall has a strong chance to win. I still like a small play at +150 or better, I'd be skeptical to lay a wager at a lower price than that.

Jason Brilz 1.5u to win 1.11u (-135 via sportsbook)
Brilz was rendered useless when he couldn't take down Eliot Marshall in his last match. Fortunately for Brilz, Schafer's striking is also mediocre and tends to invite his opponents to the ground when he can. Brilz's top game is so stifling that I don't see Schafer being able to successfully work a submission. This can be evidenced by Brilz's previous fights and record (only 1 submission loss , due to armbar in 2001. Pretty impressive for a fighter who almost always goes to the ground). The fact that you can still get Brilz for -150 is interesting; his wrestling and submission awareness should make him a higher favorite since both fighters are inferior strikers. The one problem with this bet that I have is that I think Schafer will win if Brilz tries to stand for 3 rounds. I like to think that Brilz will go for takedowns even against Schafer, since that's the only offense Brilz has at this time and he always attempts takedowns in every fight.


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