MMA Plays

[terpkeg]

1-2 -2.8u

BLLLAAHHHHHHHH, another shit UFC card for me.

I am not putting in the time that is required to be successful at this and it is showing.

My sincere apologies if I influenced anyone the wrong way.

[terpkeg]

Matt Veach -145 over Paul Kelly looks good to me. 3u

Veach should control with wrestling, more dynamic fighter imo. Has shown a good chin with ability to recover as well.

[terpkeg]

UFN 21 - 2-0 on Nelson and Tibau
RTD 32-20 +12.1u

UFC 112
Prev posted.....
Gustafsson +325 over Davis .5u/1.6u - Got a terrible number here. This is a real flyer, Davis is a stud. Hard to recommend this play the more thought i put in it. At first glance, i thought Davis getting to much respect this early in his career. He couldnt finish Stann and Gustafsson is a nice prospect. He has big power, finished Hamman early in first round. Going to need to bring his takedown defense.

Veach over Kelly 3u/2.1u - Would only risk 1u at -260. Kelly's style does not match up well with good wrestler imo.

adding.....
Grove over Munoz +160 5dimes 1u/1.6u - Besides his last time out, Munoz has never impressed me. IN his last fight, his stand up looked improved, but Jansen looked like he didnt want to fight. Munoz was an All American wreslter and Natl champ, but his wrestling has not been dominant in the UFC. Granted, Catone and Hamill had wrestling backgrounds as well, but I have expected more out of him. Also, I always thought his gnp was sloppy and he left himself open to subs. I think Grove's takedown defense is improving. Munoz should be able to get his td's, but he will pay for them on the way in and Grove presents major threat from back. I think this is a pick em fight.

Maia over Silva +600 Matchbook .5u/3u - Maia has great takedowns from clinch, I think he will get fight to ground. Chances of him finishing are not great, but better than +600. I think this should be -400 max. I will take a chance.

Lean on Taylor, Osipczak, Hughes by Dec.

BOL,

[Vrakas]

nice pics

[JuicedUp]

with you on Grove.

[terpkeg]

UFN 21 - 2-0 on Nelson and Tibau
RTD 32-20 +12.1u

UFC 112
Prev posted.....
Gustafsson +325 over Davis .5u/1.6u - Got a terrible number here. This is a real flyer, Davis is a stud. Hard to recommend this play the more thought i put in it. At first glance, i thought Davis getting to much respect this early in his career. He couldnt finish Stann and Gustafsson is a nice prospect. He has big power, finished Hamman early in first round. Going to need to bring his takedown defense.

Veach over Kelly 3u/2.1u - Would only risk 1u at -260. Kelly's style does not match up well with good wrestler imo.

adding.....
Grove over Munoz +160 5dimes 1u/1.6u - Besides his last time out, Munoz has never impressed me. IN his last fight, his stand up looked improved, but Jansen looked like he didnt want to fight. Munoz was an All American wreslter and Natl champ, but his wrestling has not been dominant in the UFC. Granted, Catone and Hamill had wrestling backgrounds as well, but I have expected more out of him. Also, I always thought his gnp was sloppy and he left himself open to subs. I think Grove's takedown defense is improving. Munoz should be able to get his td's, but he will pay for them on the way in and Grove presents major threat from back. I think this is a pick em fight.

Maia over Silva +600 Matchbook .5u/3u - Maia has great takedowns from clinch, I think he will get fight to ground. Chances of him finishing are not great, but better than +600. I think this should be -400 max. I will take a chance.

Lean on Taylor, Osipczak, Hughes by Dec.

BOL,

0-4 -5u on UFC 112.
Gustaffson did defend the takedown, but Davis appears to be too well rounded already. Got bad number too. Cant say I was on right side here.

Maia - terrible play, not even close to getting a takedown.

Veach - Right side at -145, could have took free play here. Never got chance to watch fight.

Grove - i think I was on the right side at +160. Grove should have finished fight. But Munoz showed great recovery, tough guy to finish.

Another terrible showing....

RTD 32-24 +7.1u

Maybe I am fade material at this point, but I like

Lierley over Reis +265 Bookmaker 1u/2.6u -
Lierley is big 145er, Reis is small 145. Have seen Reis fight numerous times, he does not have great finishing skills. He relies on his top control bjj. Lierley has a good wrestling base and I think he has more ways to win this fight.

Interested to see Ricci, he is one of GSP's training partners and is touted prospect. Havent seen enough of Pat Curran, but lean towards putting bet on Ricci.

Hendersen over Shlieds -300 Matchbook 4u/1.3u
Shields does not want to stand with anyone, and it isnt going to start here. Just dont see how he out wrestles Hendersen for 5 rounds. Something odd about a large offering at this price on Matchbook. But, i figure this is risk free at the moment b/c can bet off elsewhere if I want.

[illmatick]

I played Lierley as well, line is now down to +220

we took a tough loss on grove, i counted 4 times that grove had a legitimate chance at finishing the fight, oh well...

[urge2kill]

Line turned on Shad, +280 at 5Dimes now.

[terpkeg]

adding

Pat Barry over CroCop +135 Bodog 2u/2.7u
I have been fading CroCop for a while now, just dont see how he is favorite over anyone that deserves to be in UFC. Barry is quicker and stronger at this point.


Franklin over Liddell -115 Bodog 1.5/1.2
Despite KO v. Vitor, gotta go with Franklin's chin here. He is also more well rounded. I think he should be favorite. Nothing to make me believe that Franklin has declined as fast as Liddell or that Liddell is anywhere near his old form.

Faber over Aldo - No play yet as will watch the line but I am kind of suprised it is up to Aldo -240. Need to look into this fight closer.

[illmatick]

Line turned on Shad, +280 at 5Dimes now.

yeah but now down to +217 at bookmaker, I'll trust that bookmaker takes the sharper action, maybe

[ddream1]

goodluck terpkeg, enjoy your posts

[Vaughany]

adding

Pat Barry over CroCop +135 Bodog 2u/2.7u
I have been fading CroCop for a while now, just dont see how he is favorite over anyone that deserves to be in UFC. Barry is quicker and stronger at this point.


Franklin over Liddell -115 Bodog 1.5/1.2
Despite KO v. Vitor, gotta go with Franklin's chin here. He is also more well rounded. I think he should be favorite. Nothing to make me believe that Franklin has declined as fast as Liddell or that Liddell is anywhere near his old form.

Faber over Aldo - No play yet as will watch the line but I am kind of suprised it is up to Aldo -240. Need to look into this fight closer.

Il be puttin a big play on Barry for sure...he's going to destroy Cro-Cop! Also Franklin should get a UD over Liddell so will be puttin a small play on him.

[brooks85]

dam i dont have a BR at bodog anymore or i would unload it all on barry

i had to sit there at look at the +160 and couldnt touch it ha

[terpkeg]

dam i dont have a BR at bodog anymore or i would unload it all on barry

i had to sit there at look at the +160 and couldnt touch it ha

good to have bodog out when they open MMA lines.
Did they limti you down or give you boot?

[terpkeg]

Hendersen over Shlieds -300 Matchbook 4u/1.3u
Shields does not want to stand with anyone, and it isnt going to start here. Just dont see how he out wrestles Hendersen for 5 rounds. Something odd about a large offering at this price on Matchbook. But, i figure this is risk free at the moment b/c can bet off elsewhere if I want.

Walking away from this play with Shields +345. Hendo is coming off long layoff, and he is up there in age. I have bet against Shields several times over the past few years and paid everytime. Guy has a nice run going and probably deserves more respect. It is true that matchups make fights, but I think I initially overestimated Hendo's ability to keep this fight up. Ill be happy to watch this fight with no vested interest.

BOL to all.

[Vrakas]

Walking away from this play with Shields +345. Hendo is coming off long layoff, and he is up there in age. I have bet against Shields several times over the past few years and paid everytime. Guy has a nice run going and probably deserves more respect. It is true that matchups make fights, but I think I initially overestimated Hendo's ability to keep this fight up. Ill be happy to watch this fight with no vested interest.

BOL to all.

Seems like Shields is going to prevent you from winning even when he losses. Hendo should take this one easy, but he is a fairly large favorite against a guy as good as Shields.

[PayUpSukka]

Seems like Shields is going to prevent you from winning even when he losses. Hendo should take this one easy, but he is a fairly large favorite against a guy as good as Shields.

Its showitme!!!!

[PayUpSukka]

laid himout on the first connection....thats right hand is NASTY!!!

[PayUpSukka]

this almost isnt fair...lol...
shields goes down on every punch...lol..lmfao...

[terpkeg]

Had not posted in a while since i was in a prolonged slump. Hopefully betting off of my Hendersen play on Shields will be a turning point.

RTD 32-25 +6.1u
Adding.....


Alvarez over Neer at -175 2u/1.3u posted in BEllator thread last night, couldnt find my buried one

Would still play at -270 for 1u, would play up to -300. Think Alvarez wins this fight atleast 80& of time. He does everything better than Neer imo and is very hard to finish.

Hague over Beltran -150 1.5u/1u - Rolles Gracie's meltdown gave Beltran too much credit here. Hague has showed suprisingly good bjj for a heavyweight blue belt. Beltran looked real sloppy in UFC debut imo and got a gift.
Hague has been training full time last several months and I think he is more dangerous on feet.

[Vaughany]

Hague over Beltran at -150 is awesome...im defo gonna jump on tht if its similar on my site. He is going to have significant size advantage, reach and better submissions and probly better cardio. I wudnt of been surprised to see Hague at -200 which he would easily be if not for Beltran's gimme win against Rolles which was a joke!
Also got Lawler and Koscheck double
Davis and Mitrione double
Belcher/Cote to to decision at +200
Stout/Stephens to go to decision at +350

[brooks85]

where did you get stout/stephens to go the distance for +350?

Any +money on that would great but its -160 at 5d.

[Vaughany]

See below!

[Vaughany]

where did you get stout/stephens to go the distance for +350?

Any +money on that would great but its -160 at 5d.

Got it wrong...it was +240 not +350. The odds on Paddypower (irish site) are fractional 12/5 so tried to work it! +240 is still awesome tho if its -160 on 5dimes! Just checked what it is now and its changed to +200 so will probly go down to closer to evens as people jump on it by saturday! I think paddypower is often way off with bets like tht wen ther first put up. I got Matt Hughes to beat Gracie by decision at 10/2...obviously didnt work out but was great value! So ive started puttin more bets on fights goin to decision, X win by submission etc... What is the Belcher Cote to go to decision on 5dimes? +200 on paddypower, also considering Koscheck to win by submission at +240
and Mitrione Kimbo to go distance at +240. Mitrione to win by TKO/KO at +210

[brooks85]

wow those are great odds then

of course i cant sign up I know i would slam that line hard tho


5d has cote/blecher go to decision at +185 last i checked

and they had kos by sub +299 but then dropped to +240 i think

5d has kimbo/mitirone going to the distance +350, mitirone by ko +180

[RobbReport]

i like Daley in this fight for some reason

[terpkeg]

Is Paddypower strictly a Euro book?

[Vaughany]

Is Paddypower strictly a Euro book?

I asked one of the advisors...he said they dont have a licence for USA.

[terpkeg]

Bodog went crazy on future lines tonight, taking this one

Florian over Maynard -125 2u/1.6u
Kenny "i finish fights" Florian against Gray i dont finish fights" Maynard. Nothing against Maynard here, but he wins decisions. This leaves too many oppurnities for Florian. I think Florian picks him apart on the feet. I dont think Maynard will be able to close the distance very effectively to get the takedown. I think he will get discouraged early when he pays the price for trying to get on the inside with Florian. Then i think it turns into a very lopsided striking match. Maynard will get hit a lot. Florian should be -300 at a min. imo. Even if Gray gets his takedowns, Florian is dangerous off back. Would go larger here, but dont want to tie up more of my bankroll this far in advance.

[cky312]

Another thing of note is I think Florian will absolutely shred up Maynard's leg, since Gray has a very traditional boxer / wrestler stance. The front leg should just be dangling out there for the taking

[Vaughany]

Maynard might resort back to his wrestling and grind out a 3round decision win...Wrestling has always been Florian's weakest aspect.

[terpkeg]

Karakhanyan over Warren +275 1.5u/4u - Warren almost got sub'd twice by Marriot in the first round. Kara looks dangerous on feet and on ground. Warren just seems too one dimensional to be this large of a favorite. He is not going to get by forever using pure force and power.

[westerner]

Don't bet against warren unless he's up against a guy with LEGIT jj. If Bibi was a bit slower he wouldn't have tapped him, and Bibi is like 2x world champ.

[terpkeg]

Don't bet against warren unless he's up against a guy with LEGIT jj. If Bibi was a bit slower he wouldn't have tapped him, and Bibi is like 2x world champ.

Yea, he is very difficult to finish. I should have walked away with a free unit before the fight even started.

[terpkeg]

YTD 33-27 +4.4u

Started thread about this fight with my thoughts. I cant pass up -200 for 2u at Bodog. Dont want it to go up after a go to sleep. Maybe I will back off if I find a good reason to tomorrow, but doubt it.

Hayes over Banks 2u/1u