why? Bader is pretty good for a guy that's kinda green still.
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I thought good value on Jardine at +150. Rampage could not keep Jardine down and I thought Bader's striking looked very sloppy against Schaffer. While, he has shown power, I think Jardine will be able to pick him apart on feet.
If Bader can get the takedowns at will. then he will win fight. But, I dont think he does. If fight plays out on feet, Jardine wins imo.
But I am wrong plenty. How do you see fight playing out?Comment -
Bader is a college champ so I can see him getting tired of a standup war not going his way and opting to take Jardine down and pounding him out to victory. also, who's to say Bader won't land a haymaker standing.
Fading arizona combat? I would think he would be hungrier with his teamates losing a bunch.Comment -
Bader by tko in the second. That guy is a beast.Comment -
Jardine has been ko'd several times the past few years. But all of them have been early in fights, he seems to get sloppy early. He has also taken some pretty big shots from Rampage and Liddell. I think a lot of Bader's power left him late in the Schaefer fight if I recall correctly. I thought he seemed to gas. If Bader does not ko him by 3:00 mark of 2nd I dont think he will. If he does not I dont think he keeps Jardine down late 2nd or 3rd and i can see Jardine picking him apart for convincing decision.
But, Bader is young and his learning curve standing could be very sharp. This is a big fight for both guys. I like the +150 I got. I like Jardine as a dog still for .5 - 1u depending what line you have.Comment -
Rampage and Liddell don't imploy takedowns even though both have wrestling skills in their arsenal. Their bread and butter is the KO, and they probably can't even see themselves going for takedowns at this point. Bader likes to go to the ground, almost half of his wins are by submission, but if he sees an opening he will try to knock your head off. If Jardine comes in with those looping combos he's known for and Ryan throws a straight or hook that lands it is likely over. Very good odds for a powerful wrestler with better than decent boxing. I just can't bet on Jardine surviving 3 and then winning on top of that. I'm thinking he doesn't even survive three rounds.Comment -
Im on Bader, sure he didn't look amazing against Schaffer but thats because he didn't want to take down a guy with sick bjj and he gassed after trying to tko him in the first.
Jardine's biggest offense are his leg kicks, not a good idea vs a wrestler who will be taking this fight to the ground imo. + if he catches him like he did Schaffer its already gameover.
For people who say oh he will be able to keep it standing because he trains with GSP Rashad and Nate is just funny. Bader will decide where he wants to fight. 2X Div I All American, 3X Pac 10 ChampionComment -
Lots of lines just released by Bodog, I usually like to break down the fights and set my own line first, but the books beat me to it here. With a quick glance, these seem off imo.
Rothwell over Cro Cop +130 2u/2.6u - Slept on the opener here, but glad Bodog but out a +130 when Rothwell down to +1-5 most shops. Cro Cop should not be favored over any mid-tier UFC talent imo. Rothwell can take a punch, so the chance of a flash KO, if Cro Cop still has it in him, is even less likely. I expect Rothwell to close distance, wear him down against fence and get takedowns. He will finish in 2nd or 3rd enough times to warrant 2u play here.
Kongo over Buentello -365 4u/1.1u -Buentello has a good jab/ decent stand up, but Kongo should blast him on the feet imo. I dont think Buentello is a strong enough grappler to control Kongo who has improved his takedown defense over the past few years.
Nogueira over Griffin -250 2u/.8u - Griffin susiptable chin is getting the best of him too often. After seeing Nog's boxing clinic in his quick demolishin of Cane, I dont think Griffin can survive on the feet. Nog holds the grappling edge as well. Griffin only has size going for him.
Gustafsson over Davis +325 .5u/1.6u - Davis got steamed up here after the opener, but I think he is getting a little too much love after his impressive performance against Stann. Stann was a tailor made opponent for him, but here I think he will find someone who is more well rounded with more fluid, dangerous stand up. Warrant a .5u play here for now as I need to re-watch more tape on Gustafsson, but a ay add another .5u with belief that this line may drop significantly and leave a scalp oppurtunity.
Jackson over Evans -135 1u/.7u - I had a two unit play on Rampage the first time around at a better number. I basically said that Evans was a less dangerous version of Rampage. Just thought Rampage brought more explosiveness and power to fight. Only reason this play drop to 1u is the layoff from Rampage and his questionable mental state.
RTD 24-12 +16.8u...
Unfortunately, my Johnson play at -280 is now off.Comment -
That Gustafsson line got my attention as well...Comment -
Nog/Valesquez goes to Decision -125 5dimes 2u/1.6u -
Primarialy for reasons discussed in thread re: Nog's chances of subbing Valesquez, I like this play. Although obviously posible, I would be very surprised if this fight ends in a ko/tko.Comment -
Tibau over Uno -160 Bodog 2u/1.3u
Not sure why I ignored this line at the opener, but it is hard for me toi see how Uno wins this fight. He does not have the power to hurt Tibau imo and he is undersized for 155, while Tibau is a monster 155. It is Uno quickness versus Tibau power in the grappling department and I think Tibau just grinds him down for 3 rounds. Should be around -220 to -250 imo.
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Not sure how this will affect the fight, but in North Carolina they weigh in twice. First at the weigh-ins and then on fight night. There can't be more than a 13lb difference between the two weigh-ins. Obviously Tibau is known for cutting an extreme amount of weight so for him to only be allowed to gain 13lbs back over the 24 hour period should be interesting.
Good luck tomorrow!Comment -
Wow, was not aware of this. That is very interesting because obviously Tibau must typically come in over 168. Seems crazy to me the UFC would promote in a state that's athletic commission has a rule in place that is so different then the norm. Honestly, not sure how that effects Tibau either. Does he shed some mass in the months leading up to fight? Does he not fully rehydrate day of fight (doesnt seem like a possibility). Well this is something to keep an eye on closer to fight.
BOL to you tomorrow as well.Comment -
RTD 24-14 +13.3u..
Coming of an 0-2 UFC for -3.5u. Really off on my UFC plays since the new year. Just need to refocus, been playing too much poker in my free time and not watching enough fights.
On to tonight.
Rockhold over Bradley -200 Bodog 2u/1u
Played Rockhold over Taylor in one of my first plays here and he completely worked Taylor over. I was concearned that a good wrestler could control him before that fight, but not so much now. Bradley has a stronger wrestler pedigree than Taylor, but he limited offensively. Just came to my attention that even his nickname in college was "stall" Rockhold will have a considerable size advantage and is the better athlete. He is dangerous with his hands and has quick trasitions and subs. I saw Bradleys tko over Rivera live and I think it was a little flukey. He did daze him but that is not the norm. Even if he puts Rockhold on his back, I dont see him doing enough damage.Comment -
I agree I definitely think Bradley's tko of Rivera was a bit lucky, Rockhold should dominateComment -
I think it's time to move Rockhold either to one of the primetime showtime cards or a cbs card. Was suprised to see him on the challengers series again, but think he is ready for a bigger name.Comment -
WEC 47 these three look good to me
Vasquez over Pulver -110 Bookmaker 1.5u/1.3u
Darenbedyan over Palaszewski -155 Bookmaker 1u/.7u
Paixao over Buck -285 Bookmaker 2u/.7uComment -
Darenbedyan moved quick, hope he stays under -200Comment -
castillo might be a good play too.Comment -
Not checking bestfightodds for one day cost me the line on Darenbedyan, but I think I`ll still settle with -205.
Is there a email update option on best fight odds when new lines are posted?Comment -
Nice lines you got this time. I guess we switched positions lol. I like Vasquez at the line you got but i think all the value is gone now and I lean to Pulver at this point with him being up to +165 at some sites. No play for me. I'm on Karen and Paixao as well. GL!Comment -
Completely agree. I actually put 3u at the -110 with the thought that it would move and I would bet the play down to 1.5u at a better number. At this point, I may just take the profit, or maybe play Vasquez at no risk. Just trying to figure out when it will peak.Comment -
WEC 47 2-1 +1u
RTD 27-15 +15.3u
UFC on Versus 1
Adding...
Sakara over Irvin +110 5dimes 1u/1.1u
Too much focus on NCAA this week and not where it belongs and I missed opeer here. However, I think Sakara should be favorite in this one. IMO Sakara was a better striker than Irvin when he was a one trick poney boxer, but over the last 1.5 years or so his striking has appeared to evolve some. Plus, last time out he urvived three rounds (and won dec) with Leites. Very suprising for someone who I considered to have very limited grappling not too long ago Fact that he can get ko'd when he gets into fire fights along with Irvins power keeps this at 1u.
On another note, if I could repeat would probably only recommend Gonzaga at 2u and Kongo at 3u at the previously posted numbers. nk I got slightly carried away on both.Comment -
On the same 3 plays Terp (got Kongo in a parlay), although I'm on Gonzaga for a much smaller amount lol. Love the analysis of the Gonzaga fight. Pretty similar to what I wrote up. Hopefully he can pull the upset for us. GL.Comment -
Adding....
Roberts over Howard +175 5dimes 1u/1.8u
Roberts was an NAIA Natl Champion wreslter and seems to effectively use his wreslting to get fights down to mat. 7 of 9 wins (9-0) have come by submission. Howard is a fairly well rounded fighter, but his weakness is his wrestling. This did not effect him against Wilson or Mcrory who have no shot, but against Hallman, he was taken down at will and it took a ko with 5 seconds left to avaod a 30-27 last ud loss.
Roberts is taking a big step up in compitietion and I dont think he gets the finish, but Howard has been training in Thailand and there is no wrestling in Thailand. I think the KO of Hallman was on the flukey side and would not expect consitent power from Howard. Good shot Roberts takes a UD imo.Comment -
might add that play as well, still not over my bad beat on Halmann +200 against Howard in his last fightComment -
adding....
Schafer over Brilz +130 5dimes 1u/1.3u
I think this is a favorabel matchup for Schafer. His bjj is at a high level and Brilz is all about getting the fight to the mat. I am not sure if Brilz thinks he will just get takedowns and maintain top control with GNP or he will actual just try to stand with Schafer,, but Schafer has a good chin and Brilz has not shown much in the striking department. I think Schafer can control this fight from the bottom, threat with submissions and put Brilz in dangerous spots. If he cant get the finish, I think there is a good chance he takes the Dec barring the judges respect his ground fighting from the bottom.Comment -
Versus 1 2-3 -2.8u
RTD: 29-18 +12.5u
Really been struggling with the UFC since January which is suprising since it has been my cash cow for about 3 years, but here are my plays nonetheless
Pelligrino/Camoes to go Distance +165 5dimes 2u/3.3u- Eccocide hit this at +200 which was a great number, still value here imo. I see this going to distance more than 50% of time. Both black belts will be tough to sub despite some sub losses earlier in career. Pelligrio doesnt have ko power. Camoes more power, but could be negated by Pelligrino wrestling.
Mir over Carwin -145 5dimes 1.5u/1u - Heard a rumor that Carwin was sick all weak and had to see a specialist. Cannot put too much stock in this since no confirmation, but Carwin didnt look great at weighin imo. People are downplaying Mir standup, but I think it is vastly improved and Carwin's a bit over rated. I think Mir additional mass helps him in the grappling department as well.
Hamman over Wallace +120 .5u/.7u - Hamman was a big EXC prospect. Wallace has a HUGE wrestling advantage, but he could not keep Stann down and didnt show much striking. I think Hamman can hurt Wallace on feet anytime they are up.Comment -
love our mir play tonight, gl
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great stuff terkeg, going to make the pell-cam prop bet now. does make sense.Comment -
like all those plays... I think there's good value in the Mir line... gl tonite.Comment -
looks like Hamman was dominant, 30-27 across the board
great callComment
