ufc plays

[urge2kill]

Going against the herd.

[illmatick]

you guys should go back and watch the Matt brown fight, the clinch game was there all night for Matt... something Amir should be able to do an even better job at

I heard Kim was sick or something for that fight but it doesn't change my opinion too much, best bet on the card is still Hathaway


KOTC tonight, two plays

Sam Oropeza -150 to win one unit

Nick Gatson +125 x1

[westerner]

you guys should go back and watch the Matt brown fight, the clinch game was there all night for Matt... something Amir should be able to do an even better job at

I heard Kim was sick or something for that fight but it doesn't change my opinion too much, best bet on the card is still Hathaway


KOTC tonight, two plays

Sam Oropeza -150 to win one unit

Nick Gatson +125 x1

I agree, Amir isn't the athlete Kim is but he is good enough on the ground not to get grapple effed by KIm and surely has more gas. I like Amir, just not as a favourite.

[illmatick]

KOTC tonight, two plays

Sam Oropeza -150 to win one unit

Nick Gatson +125 x1

+1.25 units

both fighters won but Sam had a late opponent change

[illmatick]

Lyle Beerbohm -105 x1.5
Brett rogers +211 x.5
Antwain Britt +165 x1.5
Arlovski -175.... to win one unit

regret putting so much on lyle so i got a parlay going the other way
x.75
vitor -155
Gracie -500
Souza -550

[illmatick]

- 3 units tonight, only play i regret is arlovski

[Educ8d Degener8]

Will get it back next time Ill... I was on Rogers and Britt at their odds too... Britt was landing some shots then decided he was content hanging in Feijao's clinch up against the fence

Was staying away from Arlovski though even though I like him. He seems to have lost it unfortunately. Should go to Dream and mash some cans while he still has a bit of drawing power and can make some coin.

And Overeem silenced a good amount of critics tonight... (depending on whether or not those critics consider Rogers legit)

[illmatick]

yeah Edu, Britt looked good early on, I'd play him again at that number

Escudero wins by 3 round decision +462 x.25

[Vaughany]

yeah Edu, Britt looked good early on, I'd play him again at that number

Escudero wins by 3 round decision +462 x.25

Like this - hopefully will have it on paddypower next week. I think Sadollah Kim and Bisping Miller will go to decision aswell?

[illmatick]

love both of those Vaughany, especially bisbing vs miller, punch of pillow fists being thrown around in that fight

going to have a large parlay coming up with Dan and the lakers series price

[brooks85]

im going to do the same thing but waiting for boson series price also, should be out by tomorrow but im doing lal series/bos series/dan

[illmatick]

throwing boston in the mix isn't a bad idea, I played boston -110 adjusted series price after game 1 so I might just sit on that

[brooks85]

nice play on the series price, im sure the next line will be boston -1200 for the series

[brooks85]

scratchn my head on the boston series price, up 2-0 going back home and its -425

and they are 32-0 lifetime when going up 2-0

[Socrates]

I wanna play Bisping, but he let me down against Silva. Still researching a bit more on the upcoming fights.

[illmatick]

ryan thomas +450 x.5

[illmatick]

Dan Hornbuckle -325 to win 1 unit


parlayx1.5
Dan Hornbuckle-325
Soto -560

parlay x.25
steve carl, +250
ryan thomas +415

[illmatick]

+1.2 units tonight

Nate Moore +150 x.5
Traveres -115 x.5

[illmatick]

- 1 unit, need hathaway for Saturday

[Darrellp32]

Any advice on next weekend?

[illmatick]

Any advice on next weekend?

Amir -135 x1
Hathaway +210 x2.5

Escudero wins by 3 round decision +462 x.25

[Kaladarus]

I wanna play Bisping, but he let me down against Silva. Still researching a bit more on the upcoming fights.

I like Bisping here also. Miller is a really good fighter, but he either wins by submissions or decisions. Bisping should be able to keep this one standing and he's never been submitted. I don't think it will be completely one sided, but Bisping definitely has an edge and at -150 is a good play for me.

[Vaughany]

Any advice on next weekend?

Hedge ur bets and stick big money on Bisping vs MIller, Sanchez vs Hathaway and Dong vs Sadollah all going to decision. At least 2 of them will definitely go to decision

[illmatick]

Amir -135 x1
Hathaway +210 x2.5

Escudero wins by 3 round decision +462 x.25

parlay x3
Bisbing -180
Nog -540

Russow +300 x1

[Bigmikesm]

I like Russow too. The guy is tough as nails and nobody knows much about him. He won't be getting knocked out.

[illmatick]

I like Russow too. The guy is tough as nails and nobody knows much about him. He won't be getting knocked out.

agree, Duffe getting way too much hype after beating a complete can in Tim Hague, line is heavily inflated imo, Russow is a legit threat here. mad at myself for missing the opener...+425 on Russow would have been nice

line went from +425 to +280 pretty fast

possible play on Schambari for Bellator on Thursday, going to keep my eye on the line, hopefully 5 dimes slips up and offers me +220

[brooks85]

russow is definitely a great bet, i had a chance to take him at the opener but missed it. By the time i finished watching russow/mccully the line had dropped and I was pissed at myself. +300 is still good, im gonna bite soon.

[westerner]

amir is a great pick, he doesn't gas and even if he slows he still fights smart and hard. Kim gasses like crazy, and he won't be able to stop amir in the first... its amir's fight

[westerner]

russow is definitely a great bet, i had a chance to take him at the opener but missed it. By the time i finished watching russow/mccully the line had dropped and I was pissed at myself. +300 is still good, im gonna bite soon.

He's three years or more removed from his win over Kharitonov who, while a great athlete with lots of power, hasn't fought with purpose in an eternity by that point and wasn't in very good shape. I don't think Russow will look as good as he did then, and I rate Duffee a bit higher than Sergei back in that fight... Russow gotta basically land every takedown he attempts or he'll gas and get smashed.

[Eccocide]

amir is a great pick, he doesn't gas and even if he slows he still fights smart and hard. Kim gasses like crazy, and he won't be able to stop amir in the first... its amir's fight

Did you watch Kim's last fight at all? He showed no signs of gassing and completely dominated TJ Grant who is a much better and accomplished grappler than Sadollah. As well, Grant has a great/active guard and he couldnt do anything against Kim. Kim takes this fight where he wants it, not the other way around.

[westerner]

Did you watch Kim's last fight at all? He showed no signs of gassing and completely dominated TJ Grant who is a much better and accomplished grappler than Sadollah. As well, Grant has a great/active guard and he couldnt do anything against Kim. Kim takes this fight where he wants it, not the other way around.

Its gonna be like the Brown fight, people gas at different rates in different positions. Kim is long but so is Amir, and Amir will be physical enough to keep Kim in the clinch and wear him down. Kim won't be able to control the fight which will make him gas faster. Of course, he has so much power he could really hurt Amir early, but if Amir is fine after the 1st he should take a UD

[illmatick]

Eric Schambari +205 x1


Jesse Forbes -125 x1

[illmatick]

-1 unit for bellator

[illmatick]

Russow wins by 3 round decision +650 x.25

Sanchez/Hathaway goes 3 round distance -130 x1

[Chairib]

you guys should go back and watch the Matt brown fight, the clinch game was there all night for Matt... something Amir should be able to do an even better job at

I heard Kim was sick or something for that fight but it doesn't change my opinion too much, best bet on the card is still Hathaway

This fight between Kim and Amir is a tough one for me to call. There's a lot of uncertainty for me simply because time after time I've watched Amir get smacked around only to pull something out of his arse to win the fight. And I can see Kim beating him down, only to get tired in the third round and lose the fight. People have alluded to Kim's conditioning as the key to this fight and I find myself going along with that notion.

Now I'm going to have to disagree with you about Kim's fight with Mike Brown. I've been watching that fight quite a bit in the past couple of days and the conclusion that I've come to is that Brown tried execute a plum clinch on Kim but it didn't work. Moreover, he shouldn't have even tried to use that technique on Kim in the first place.

Simply put Brown was the smaller fighter and you do not use that clinch (dirty boxing or the plum clinch) in a fight against a taller, stronger opponent. With the plum clinch you have to move your hands from your opponents neck to a spot that's almost to the top of his head. If you're fighting someone the same height or even better someone shorter than you it's a great weapon to use. You're using leverage, not just strength, to force the head down by pulling at a 45 degree angle. Against a taller fighter, it gets increasingly difficult to move your hands into the correct position, the taller he is the more your arms get extended. You lose your leverage by reaching. If there's no leverage then there's no head control, and you can forget about the knees.

If you watch round one, Brown tries for the plum clinch and knee but Kim not only sees what was coming he was able to power out of it. Brown tried shifing to rabbit knees to the body but Kim countered, trapped a knee, and took him down. Kim turned it into a grappling match and Brown's was focused on defense.

This Saturday night, if both guys come into the fight healthy, I think Kim's got the size and strength advantage. And if they clinch early in the fight, Kim's going to get underhooks, pin Amir up against the fence, and eventually take him down to the mat. If Amir does decide to clinch and grapple with Kim, he's got get belly to belly or go for a single leg. Kim has a tendency to give up the single leg quickly in hopes of catching the opponent with a wizzer. If Amir can do that, then he can transition to using knees and elbows off a clinch. Or he could release, get some distance and force Kim into a standup fight.

Kim's ground and pound is good but it's still pretty raw, he looks to strike if he's got top position, and at times he does get over extended. Amir's guardwork has proceeded to a point where he could tap Kim with an armbar. At the very least, he should be able to keep many of Kim's strikes from getting through.

Still what we could see is a fight where much of it is spent up against the fence, or where Kim takes Amir down numerous times, unable to finish, but grinds out the decision. Or maybe a fight where Kim has early success only to gas which allows Amir to take over with his stand up and get a tko or even a split decision. And I find myself switching back and forth between those scenarios.

I'm left asking the question: how is Kim's conditioning?