UFC on ESPN+ 18: Hermansson vs. Cannonier (September 28, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 2:00 pm ET
Jack Hermansson vs Jared Cannonier
Danilo Belluardo vs Mark Madsen
Gilbert Burns vs Gunnar Nelson
Ion Cutelaba vs Khalil Rountree
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Ovince Saint Preux
Nicolas Dalby vs Alex Oliveira

ESPN+ 11:00 am EST
Alen Amedovski vs John Phillips
Alessio Di Chirico vs Makhmud Muradov
Siyar Bahadurzada vs Ismail Naurdiev
Macy Chiasson vs Lina Lansberg
Marc Diakiese vs Lando Vannata
Nohelin Hernandez vs Jack Shore
Giga Chikadze vs Brandon Davis

[PaperTrail07]

Cant wait---firing this one

[PaperTrail07]

Muradov
Oliveira
Vanatta
Rountree
Gunni
Da JOKER

[firekillex]

gunnar nelson must win spot at + money ... i like it

[bjpenn85]

Muradov
Oliveira
Vanatta
Rountree
Gunni
Da JOKER

Why vanatta?

[Hugo de Naranja]

gunnar nelson must win spot at + money ... i like it

I think this is a tough matchup for him. A rare matchup where he doesn’t have the pure BJJ advantage.

[PaperTrail07]

Only reason I like Gunni is the short notice for Burns and the trip across the pond....Much tougher fight than Alves...Still think he wins the point game and gets a decision...

I think this is a tough matchup for him. A rare matchup where he doesn’t have the pure BJJ advantage.

[PaperTrail07]

+135/+140 Just more if a Diakese Fade....think he will have to go to takedowns to win and HOPEFULLY Vanatta holds up in that department...

Why vanatta?

[bjpenn85]

+135/+140 Just more if a Diakese Fade....think he will have to go to takedowns to win and HOPEFULLY Vanatta holds up in that department...

Last performance from diakesie, he looked better, outstruck duffy, you dont see him replicate that performance against Lando?

[Teem]

Think I'm gonna parlay Joker/Muradov and also Olek/Davis. Thoughts?

[PaperTrail07]

He did....but as you included VS DUFFY...I am not big on Duffy......

Last performance from diakesie, he looked better, outstruck duffy, you dont see him replicate that performance against Lando?

[bjpenn85]

He did....but as you included VS DUFFY...I am not big on Duffy......

Duffy lacks heart, but hes a decent striker. Wonder if hes better than Lando on the feet. im not sure..

[JIBBBY]

I'm liking this card.. Early start time again and that I don't like ...

[JIBBBY]

Gilbert Burns vs Gunnar Nelson is tricky.. Nelson isn't get a sub win on Burns.. Burns hits hard and got better with his stand up also..

I'm liking Gilbert Burns ITD in this one.. Nelson could get cracked dropped and then sub'd or just slept from a good punch to the chin.

[frankieunits2685]

anybody like Diakiese in the prelims?? He's around -162 right now.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA write up prelims.. Part 1 and 2 in..




145 lbs.: Giga Chikadze vs. Brandon Davis

Giga Chikadze (7-2) — who sports a 33-6 (22 KO) kickboxing record — lost his mixed martial arts (MMA) debut before winning five straight by first-round (technical) knockout. This was enough to earn him a “Contender Series” spot opposite Austin Springer, who choked him out late in the fourth.
In addition to the five (technical) knockouts, he has submitted his last two opponents by armbar and punches, respectively.
Brandon Davis (10-7) put on one of the best “Contender Series” fights to date against Austin Arnett, then took home “Fight of the Night” for his brawl with Steven Peterson after falling to Kyle Bochniak in his Octagon debut. He’s just 1-3 since, including a split decision loss to Kyung Ho Kang last month.
He’ll give up two inches of height and a half-inch of reach to Chikadze.
Chikadze is not UFC-ready. His “Contender Series” fight showed the lingering deficiencies in his grappling and his kick-heavy striking attack demands a level of takedown defense that I’m not sure he can achieve. His successful MMA record is entirely manufactured — five of his wins came over winless opponents and the other two were 1-10 and 2-32.
Davis isn’t much of a wrestler, admittedly, but he doesn’t really need to be. He’s tough enough to absorb whatever Chikadze can dish out, save perhaps the latter’s “Giga Kick” to the liver, and should be able to muscle him to the mat without much issue. As long as Davis fights with a modicum of strategy and exploits Chikadze’s issues on the ground, he grinds his way to either a decision or late submission.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Macy Chiasson vs. Lina Lansberg

Macy Chiasson (5-0) rewarded Kelvin Gastelum for picking her first among the Featherweights by scoring first-round finishes of Larissa Pacheco and Leah Letson on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 28. She has been every bit as dominant in the Octagon itself, stopping Pannie Kianzad on the Finale before doing the same to Gina Mazany and Sarah Moras.
She has knocked out and submitted two pro foes apiece.
Lina Lansberg (9-4) got to headline in her UFC with the catch that it was against Cris “Cyborg,” who handed Lansberg the second (technical) knockout loss of her MMA career. She’s gone on to win three of her next five, including a decision over Tonya Evinger in her native Sweden this past June.
“The Elbow Queen” is four inches shorter than Chiasson and will give up seven inches of reach.
Chiasson is turning into a scary contender. She’s an absolute tank for the weight, towering over most of her compatriots, and she’s got the power to match. The struggles Lansberg had with Yana Kunitskaya suggest she’ll have heaps of issues trying to outmuscle Chiasson or stay on her feet against her, and the “Elbow Queen” lacks the one-shot power to slow Chiasson’s inexorable advance.
I doubt she can get back up once Chiasson drags her to the mat, either.
Provided Chiasson doesn’t decide to test her striking for too long, expect a quick takedown with a ground-and-pound stoppage following shortly thereafter.
Prediction: Chiasson via first-round technical knockout
Related
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155 lbs.: Marc Diakiese vs. Lando Vannata

Marc Diakiese (13-3) made an immediate UFC impression by racking up three consecutive victories, including a 30-second knockout of Teemu Packalen that remains among the most brutal finishes in recent memories. Three straight losses left him fighting for his UFC life, but he came up big against Joe Duffy in London this past March.
“Bonecrusher” will have one inch of height and two inches of reach on the “Groovy” one.
Lando Vannata (10-3-2) roared out of the gate in similar fashion with a “Fight of the Night” against Tony Ferguson and “Knockout of the Year” against John Makdessi soon after. He proceeded to go winless (0-2-2) in his next four before finally returning to the win column in February with a submission of Marcos Mariano.
He has just one decision win on his record, submitting five and knocking out four.
It’s worth comparing how these two broke their respective slumps. Diakiese took on a very legit foe in Joe Duffy and turned in a career-best performance, completely defusing a dangerous boxer with his striking and wrestling. UFC had to sign Marcos Mariano, the worst addition to the roster in recent memory, just to get Vannata a win. “Groovy” appears to have caught lightning in a bottle against Ferguson and had just enough left over to handle Makdessi; meanwhile, his complete inability to pace himself is something he just seems to lack the inclination or ability to fix.
Diakiese can match Vannata’s explosiveness and has an equally vast arsenal. It’s unlikely Vannata will be able to make much of a dent even when he’s fresh, and once he starts to flag, it’s all “Bonecrusher.” As against Duffy, Diakiese uses crushing leg kicks and regular takedowns to sap Vannata and open him up to 15 minutes of punishment.
Prediction: Diakiese via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Jack Shore vs. Nohelin Hernandez

Jack Shore (11-0) enjoyed a perfect (12-0) amateur run before joining the big leagues in 2016, where he’s fought in the venerable Cage Warriors promotion since his second bout. “Tank” claimed its vacant Bantamweight title in Dec. 2018 with a technical knockout of unbeaten Mike Ekundayo, then choked out Scott Malone in his first defense four months later.
His 10 finishes are split 6-4 between submissions and knockouts.
Nohelin Hernandez (10-3) — riding a four-fight win streak that included victories in Tachi Palace Fights, Bellator and LFA — answered the call when Marlon Vera lost his opponent during fight week last July. Hernandez kept it competitive for a round and a half before getting dropped and choked out for his second pro submission loss.
He is the shorter of the two by one inch.
Shore reminds me a lot of fellow Welshman Brett Johns, offering rock-solid wrestling and top control alongside unremarkable-but-effective standup. Like Johns, I’m not sure he has a standout ability that could carry him into the elite, but he’s effective and consistent enough that I don’t see many guys below that tier giving him major issues.
The best part of Hernandez’s game is his range boxing, which isn’t devastating enough to make up for the uphill battle he’ll face in the clinch and on the ground. Shore’s arsenal of foot sweeps and prolonged top control earn him a comfortable decision, possibly with a knockdown or two as icing.
Prediction: Shore via unanimous decision


185 lbs.: Alen Amedovski vs. John Phillips

The two-fight stint for Alen Amedovski (8-1) in Bellator MMA was both extremely successful and extremely brief, knocking out his two opponents in a combined 2:01. He couldn’t do the same to UFC debut opponent Krzysztof Jotko, who used prolonged top control to neutralize his foe’s power and take home a unanimous decision win.
He’ll give up two inches of height to “The Welsh Wrecking Machine.”
Formerly known as “The White Mike Tyson,” John Phillips (21-9) put together a 6-1 run on the British circuit to earn himself a spot in the Octagon. He’s yet to taste victory there, however, tapping to Charles Byrd and Kevin Holland before dropping a split decision to countryman Jack Marshman in March.
He has stopped 19 foes with punches, almost all in the first round.
Give Phillips’ power to practically anyone else on UFC’s roster and they’ll make better use of it than he has. It’s remarkable how little effort he’s put into developing his technical boxing, takedown defense, or really any aspect of mixed martial arts (MMA) beyond winging the occasional crazy-hard hook. Sure, Amedovski didn’t set the world on fire in his debut, but getting outwrestled by Krzysztof Jotko is less damning than a purported power puncher getting boxed up by Jack Marshman.
Amedovski has the faster hands and at least some modicum of grappling knowledge, which is enough on its own to give Phillips fits. Phillips could very well land the one-hitter quitter, but it’s likelier that Amedovski drags him down and pounds him out.
Prediction: Amedovski via first-round technical knockout
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185 lbs.: Alessio Di Chirico vs. Makhmud Muradov

Italy’s Alessio Di Chirico (12-3) bounced back from a 1-2 Octagon start to win two straight, knocking out Oluwale Bamgbose with a bonus-winning knee and edging Contender Series product Julian Marquez by split decision. Injury kept him out of action for nearly a year, after which he dropped a decision to Kevin Holland in Greenville.
“Manzo” stands two inches shorter than Makhmud Muradov (22-6) at 6’0.”
“Mach” — the only MMA fighter promoted by Floyd Mayweather — has won 11 straight and 15 of his last 16 bouts, already competing four times in 2019. His most recent efforts have seen him knockout UFC veterans Alberto Uda and Wendell Oliveira within the span of two months.
He replaces the injured Peter Sobotta on less than two weeks’ notice.
Muradov isn’t just a random fill-in the UFC found — he absolutely deserves to be here. He’s a highly mobile, well-rounded Middleweight who’s shown stopping power on both the feet and the ground. He also looks to still be improving at the age of 29, which is a scary prospect.
Between “Mach’s” footwork and wrestling, Di Chirico will struggle mightily to get his takedowns going ... and he can’t keep up with Muradov standing. Between his pot-shotting and ground-and-pound, expect Muradov to put Uzbekistan on the UFC board.
Prediction: Muradov via unanimous decision
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170 lbs.: Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Ismail Naurdiev

Siyar Bahadurzada (24-7-1) had one of the more memorable Octagon debuts you’re likely to see, felling Paulo Thiago in 42 seconds with a single punch, but went on to lose decisions to Dong Hyun Kim and John Howard afterward. “The Great” proceeded to score three straight finishes, one of which earned “Performance of the Night,” before losing a back-and-forth battle with Curtis Millender in Dec. 2018.
He has not gone the distance in victory since Oct. 2009.
Ismail Naurdiev (18-3) looked every bit “The Austrian Wonderboy” during the 13-1 run that brought him to the Octagon, then exceeded expectations by defeating Michel Prazeres on a three-week turnaround. Try as he might, he couldn’t power through Chance Rencountre, whose suffocating wrestling attack proved more than Naurdiev could handle.
Eleven of his 16 stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
On paper, Naurdiev has every edge. On top of being more than a decade younger than Bahadurzada, he’s faster, has a much more varied striking attack, and has the wrestling to avoid the takedowns that “The Great” will lean on in a pinch. That said, he had a similar suite of advantages against Ismael de Jesus and the aforementioned Rencountre, who found considerable success through sheer durability and bloody-mindedness.
Bahadurzada’s pressure is less suffocating than Rencountre’s, however, and he got pieced up pretty badly by Curtis Millender last time out. Though Naurdiev lacks the height and reach advantages that Millender used to great effect, his superior wrestling will prevent Bahadurzada from grappling his way out of danger. Naurdiev’s power and Bahadurzada’s age/wear combine to force the latter’s first (technical) knockout defeat.
Prediction: Naurdiev via first-round technical knockout



Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 129-78-1

[Demonata]

I'm liking this card.. Early start time again and that I don't like ...

Jibby just have some coffee

[JIBBBY]

Jibby just have some coffee

Tequila or wine I enjoy during the UFC events, makes it more enjoyable win or lose.. Morning starts are rude sober awakenings on Saturday for me. lol.. ..

I will get my bets in on Friday night though...

[Unwritten Law]

I like Khalil Rountree as the moderate favorite. I think his Muay Thai striking has noticeably improved a lot as he displayed vs Anders. I think he'll get another dominate win if not a finish.

[Thrilla]

Your hourly reminder: Henry Cejudo won a gold medal in the olympics!

[JIBBBY]

^^ Thrilla probably jacks off to Henry videos wrestling or fighting nightly..

Every event thread he posts a pick of Henry even though he's not fighting in that event..

Makes one wonder!!

Just saying...

[Demonata]

^^ Thrilla probably jacks off to Henry videos wrestling or fighting nightly..

Every event thread he posts a pick of Henry even though he's not fighting in that event..

Makes one wonder!!

Just saying...

Thrilla obviously is a child. No way can he act that stupid as an adult? Yeah he probably has pictures of cejudos muscles all oiled and plays interviews of cejudo while choking the chicken.

[JIBBBY]

Thrilla obviously is a child. No way can he act that stupid as an adult? Yeah he probably has pictures of cejudos muscles all oiled and plays interviews of cejudo while choking the chicken.

I've learned to ignore most of Thrilla's posts these days.. Guy has issues..

I do like to poke at this clown once in a while. He pokes at me and I poke back.. ..

Ok back to EVENT and fighter posts.. This card is decent!!!

[PaperTrail07]

Amazing Card Fellas ---

[JIBBBY]

[HurlSweatPants]

Ion is penetrating clown lol.

Hope Shanghai Khalil kicks the shit out of him, should be one of the better fights on the card.

[LBfightlife]

I just wanted to say that I didn't trust my instincts on ufc 241, of course I was right about Nate, but I wanted to go big on Stiepe but I had a case of listening to others analysis too much. I took a pretty big loss of units. That said I am back and looking to right the ship. Good luck to yall tomorrow

[Hugo de Naranja]

Think I'm gonna parlay Joker/Muradov and also Olek/Davis. Thoughts?

I think all four win but am least sure on Davis. Good luck sir!

[Hugo de Naranja]

anybody like Diakiese in the prelims?? He's around -162 right now.

I think he wins it. Backing him small here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Khalil Rountree as the moderate favorite. I think his Muay Thai striking has noticeably improved a lot as he displayed vs Anders. I think he'll get another dominate win if not a finish.

Careful betting Khalil too big. Cardio and chin are both a question mark for him. I think Cutelaba is more durable and probably the better grappler too. Khalil looked great against Anders but I'm not fully sold on him yet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 18: Hermansson vs. Cannonier Picks:
Jack Shore Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Marc Diakiese Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Macy Chiasson Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Brandon Davis Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Siyar Bahadurzada Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Makhmud Muradov Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
John Phillips Round 1 KO (Punch)
Nicolas Dalby Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Michal Oleksiejczuk Round 2 KO (Punches)
Khalil Rountree Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Gilbert Burns Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Mark Madsen Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jack Hermansson Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 18: Hermansson vs. Cannonier

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: Shore (DEBUT) vs. N. Hernandez
Shore Submission (+345) 0.5u
Shore Round 3 (+900) 0.25u

Fight #2: Diakiese vs. Vannata
Diakiese+Vannata Draw (+6500) 0.25u

Fight #3: Chiasson vs. Lansberg
Chiasson ITD (-104) 1.56u to win 1.5u
Chiasson Round 2 (+500) 0.5u

Fight #4: B. Davis vs. Chikadze (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #5: Bahadurzada vs. Naurdiev
No Bet

Fight #6: Muradov (DEBUT) vs. Di Chirico
Muradov (-145) 2.9u to win 2u

Fight #7: Phillips vs. Amedovski
Phillips+Amedovski WGD (-170) 1.7u to win 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Dalby vs. A. Oliveira
No Bet

Fight #9: Oleksiejczuk vs. Saint Preux
Oleksiejczuk ITD (-120) 0.9u to win 0.75u

Fight #10: Rountree vs. Cutelaba
Rountree Decision (+460) 0.5u

Hedge:
Cutelaba Round 1 (+300) 0.25u

Fight #11: Burns vs. G. Nelson
Burns (-130) 1.3u to win 1u
Burns Decision (+190) 0.4u

Fight #12: Madsen (DEBUT) vs. Belluardo
No Bet

Fight #13: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Hermansson KO/TKO (+370) 0.35u
Hermansson Unanimous Decision (+675) 0.25u

Straight Parlays:
Diakiese/Chiasson (+106) 1u
Shore/Oleksiejczuk (+129) 1.01u

Prop Parlays:
Phillips+Amedovski WGD/Oleksiejczuk (+119) 1.5u

Full Card Props:
None

Multi-Event Parlays:
Blaydes/Hermansson (+106) 2.75u
Shore/Mousasi (+112) 2u

[UncleChael]

Careful betting Khalil too big. Cardio and chin are both a question mark for him. I think Cutelaba is more durable and probably the better grappler too. Khalil looked great against Anders but I'm not fully sold on him yet.

You gonna learn today

[Thrilla]

Careful betting Khalil too big. Cardio and chin are both a question mark for him. I think Cutelaba is more durable and probably the better grappler too. Khalil looked great against Anders but I'm not fully sold on him yet.

Yes we need to see more of the new Rountree. But his cardio is better than Cutybell who's in return more wellrounded and packs a harder punch.

[JC2008]

Roundtree said on JRE that they run around 5 miles every day before they start training so I'm not too concerned about this cardio per se. His chin can get cracked though.