UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar (July 27, 2019)

[PaperTrail07]

Like
Spencer +500
Fig+100
Niko +270
Tsar-160
Jotko -165
Tucker-130

[firekillex]

I dunno--that KO could have changed Cyborg....we shall see.....kinda like Luke Rockhold hmmmmmmmmmmm

Mens power is completely different... Jan isnt a power puncher but he still has power, that shot he landed wouldve KOD most people off the break it landed perfectly because Rockhold looked tired/not interested with 0 defense... he just looks shot

Cyborg is an animal , has a good chin , she got tagged multiple times by Nunes and still wasnt completely out tbh , she got dropped but wasnt like flatlined ... If this was against some power puncher id be thinking different but Spencer doesnt have KO power standing up whatsoever after watching a few of her Invicta fights it looks super sloppy... its crazy how steep the skill curve is in Womans MMA from like the top 1-3 then everybody else... the only division where the skill gap isnt so huge is 115... 125/135/145 its gigantic right now

[PaperTrail07]

I didn't mean it in a direct comparison-just saying fighters decline--the life takes its toll----she MAY NOT bounce back stronger....this is an opportunity of a lifetime for Spencer-I never look past that either....Spencer is heavy-again I'm not saying its the best bet of the year but we are talking +500 here...Spencer has shown the ability to adjust and win so far-sloppy as it is..

Mens power is completely different... Jan isnt a power puncher but he still has power, that shot he landed wouldve KOD most people off the break it landed perfectly because Rockhold looked tired/not interested with 0 defense... he just looks shot

Cyborg is an animal , has a good chin , she got tagged multiple times by Nunes and still wasnt completely out tbh , she got dropped but wasnt like flatlined ... If this was against some power puncher id be thinking different but Spencer doesnt have KO power standing up whatsoever after watching a few of her Invicta fights it looks super sloppy... its crazy how steep the skill curve is in Womans MMA from like the top 1-3 then everybody else... the only division where the skill gap isnt so huge is 115... 125/135/145 its gigantic right now

[firekillex]

+500 odds give her a 16% chance of winning ... imo she has like a 5% chance of winning here being generous.. i honestly cannot see any way she wins other then like a cage grinding ugly decision using her size or maybe getting like a crazy judo throw / slip on the ground and land into a submission lmao

goodluck though, dont trust other words for your bets, if you got a lean/hunch take it all the way .. GL

[PaperTrail07]

Sometimes its just not on paper, for sure --I just think the WAY Cyborg was dismantled could have some lasting effects.....I could see it being some slop fest with a judo throw....lays on her.....rear naked choke lol...who knows....3 rounder so a round of lay and pray could go a long way for a +500.....loses first round almost by KO.....then lay and pray 2X 29-28 lol...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I really don't think so mate. Cyborg excellent cardio. So much better on the feet and solid on the mat too

[PaperTrail07]

I know I know....1 shot to the face Cyborg may have flashbacks from that assault...lol never know

I really don't think so mate. Cyborg excellent cardio. So much better on the feet and solid on the mat too

[firekillex]

I know I know....1 shot to the face Cyborg may have flashbacks from that assault...lol never know

the main thing im seeing is youre caught up on the huge +500 juicy odds... but in a fight where the opponent really has like no way of winning its basically just throwing money away... maybe a small hail mary or something but definitely dont put anything significant ( which i know you arent haha )

it is MMA so of course big underdogs win all the time which gives people hope but i dont think its super profitable... +200/300 range happens at a good rate but anything more is kinda tough

[Hugo de Naranja]

I know I know....1 shot to the face Cyborg may have flashbacks from that assault...lol never know

But it's a totally different style matchup. If it was someone like GDR, maybe you'd have a case but Spencer offers next to nothing on the feet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Papes will you give me odds that Cyborg finishes in Round 1 or maybe the first 7:30 of the fight?

[Thrilla]

On Episode 2 of UFC 240 Embedded, featherweight champion Max Holloway gets an adrenaline fix at an aerial park and hikes with his team. Featherweight Felicia Spencer visits a farmers market and tries out a new face paint look; opponent Cris Cyborg focuses on her fingernails. Featherweight title challenger Frankie Edgar makes the most of summer down the shore with a run on the boardwalk. UFC 240 Embedded is an all-access, behind-the-scenes video blog leading up to the featherweight title fight taking place Saturday, July 27 on Pay-Per-View.

[firekillex]

But it's a totally different style matchup. If it was someone like GDR, maybe you'd have a case but Spencer offers next to nothing on the feet.

would actually like to see that fight tbh

[Sanity Check]

Max and his team, definitely some of the smartest people in the business imo.

[firekillex]

Max and his team, definitely some of the smartest people in the business imo.

ya making a guy who weighs like 190 pounds cut to 145 after major health concerns
then taking a 155lb fight on short notice right after that and not taking time to fill out his body and just stay at LW
smartest team in the ufc

that cut takes a huge toll on his body ... not sure how long hell be able to keep doing it until the wheels fall off the wagon but id say its going to be very very soon

[Sanity Check]

ya making a guy who weighs like 190 pounds cut to 145 after major health concerns
then taking a 155lb fight on short notice right after that and not taking time to fill out his body and just stay at LW
smartest team in the ufc

that cut takes a huge toll on his body ... not sure how long hell be able to keep doing it until the wheels fall off the wagon but id say its going to be very very soon

I guess it is difficult to recognize smart when you have Conor McDumgregor as an avatar.

You probably think if a UFC fighter isn't throwing dollies through bus windows and stealing pplz phones they ain't living right.

[firekillex]

I guess it is difficult to recognize smart when you have Conor McDumgregor as an avatar.

You probably think if a UFC fighter isn't throwing dollies through bus windows and stealing pplz phones they ain't living right.

great comeback

[Sanity Check]

great comeback

I'm kidding.

Max and his team really are smart whether people realize it or not. Conor too is smart as far as the fight game goes.

If Max finishes Frankie Edgar inside the distance a big part of it will be because of the overall intelligence level of Max and his team.

[Thrilla]

Is Max's team also from Hawaii or did they decide to settle there just for Max?

[PaperTrail07]

What are the Borg Round 1 Odds? I don't see why not Hugo-

Papes will you give me odds that Cyborg finishes in Round 1 or maybe the first 7:30 of the fight?

[PaperTrail07]

I get it.....I just see a top fighter w a possible rattle situation coming off a bad loss and an up and comer who MAY dig deep ....Spencer will no doubt have to survive a wild 2:30....IF she does I feel she may turn the tide 29-28 or some shit....

But it's a totally different style matchup. If it was someone like GDR, maybe you'd have a case but Spencer offers next to nothing on the feet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What are the Borg Round 1 Odds? I don't see why not Hugo-

None out yet. What do you think is reasonable?

[PaperTrail07]

We can wait for a line---I will give you first round for sure......

None out yet. What do you think is reasonable?

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA -




125 lbs.: Gillian Robertson vs. Sarah Frota

Gillian Robertson (6-3) fell to Barb Honchak on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26, but managed to secure submissions of Emily Whitmire and Molly McCann in her first two Octagon appearances. A submission loss to Mayra Bueno Silva slowed her roll, though she bounced back five months later by finishing Veronica Macedo midway through the second round.
She has submitted three opponents with rear-naked chokes and another two with armbars.
Sarah Frota (9-1) won eight straight, including one in Super Fight League, before destroying Maiara Amanajas on “Contender Series” and earning a UFC contract. She wound up missing weight by seven pounds in her debut against Livinha Souza and giving up four takedowns en route to a decision loss.
She stands one inch taller than Robertson at 5’6.”
Take away Frota’s size and you have a powerful-but-plodding striker with Brazilian jiu-jitsu who is not quite good enough to compensate for her shoddy wrestling. Though she’s the more dangerous of the two on the feet, that doesn’t make much difference when Robertson can take her down essentially at will.
Frota’s strength could prove problematic in the early going, but I can’t see her brute-forcing her way through Robertson’s takedowns for long. Robertson dominates from top position with increasing ease as the rounds progress.
Prediction: Robertson via unanimous decision
Related
Rewind! Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 240


170 lbs.: Erik Koch vs. Kyle Stewart

Once the No. 1-ranked UFC Featherweight contender, Erik Kock (15-6) is 2-5 since pulling out of a fight with Jose Aldo in 2012. In fact, “New Breed” has fought just twice in the last three years, dropping decisions to Clay Guida and Bobby Green.
This will be his first fight in 18 months thanks to yet another injury scrapping a planned match up with Dwight Grant.
A 10-fight win streak set up Kyle Stewart (11-2) for an LFA title shot against still-unbeaten James Nakashima, who wore down “Gunz Up” with persistent wrestling over the course of five rounds. He returned to the LFA cage with a win over Braden Smith and stepped in to fight Chance Rencountre in the Octagon two months later, tapping to a rear-naked choke midway through the first.
He stands four inches taller than Koch.
It’s hard not to feel bad for Koch, who’s probably the unluckiest UFC fighter since Brian Foster. He’s pulled out of six UFC fights because of various injuries and hasn’t scored a significant victory since beating Raphael Assuncao and Jonathan Brookins in 2011.
I don’t think moving to Welterweight is the cure for his ills.
Stewart is a dangerous striker in his own right and figures to be the larger man on fight night. Koch does theoretically have an avenue of victory in Stewart’s shaky takedown defense, but “New Breed” lacks the strength of Nakashima or Rencountre, meaning he’ll struggle to consistently bring it to the mat. Size, speed and a functional body carry Stewart to a dominant striking victory.
Prediction: Stewart via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Holloway Vs Edgar For Featherweight Gold!


265 lbs.: Tanner Boser vs. Giacomo Lemos

Canada’s Tanner Boser (16-5-1) has spent a decent chunk of his career overseas, beating veterans like D.J. Linderman and Chase Gormley in Russia. After a loss and draw, “Bulldozer” returned to his home country to claim the Unified MMA Heavyweight title with a leg kick finish of Jared Kilkenny in May.
He stands one inch shorter than Giacomo Lemos at 6’2.”
Lemos racked up four victories in his native Brazil before taking his talent to South Korea early this year. His efforts under the AFC banner have seen him finish San Soo Lee and Jun Soo Lim within the span of three months.
He has knocked out five opponents and submitted one other.
Yeah, these guys are terrible. Lemos is a physically imposing, but technically bankrupt bruiser, while Boser is so boring that even watching tape at twice the speed isn’t enough to keep me engaged. I think the “point fighter” label is thrown around too liberally, but Boser is literally content to throw a half-dozen strikes per minute and has gone the distance in 10 of his last 12 fights. “The Bulldozer” is here to appease the Canada faithful and Lemos is here to look scary and lose.
Lemos is too slow and robotic to catch up to Boser on the feet and too terrible of a wrestler to get his actually decent ground-and-pound going. Boser’s going to outclass him, though he could lose the fight through sheer lack of output. Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see UFC feed one of these two to Greg Hardy.
Prediction: Boser via unanimous decision


125 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Viviane Araujo

Now in her twelfth year as a professional, Alexis Davis (19-9) finds herself on an 0-2 skid since a successful UFC Flyweight debut against Liz Carmouche. “Ally-Gator” gave a good account of herself both times, however, fighting division standouts Katlyn Chookagian and Jennifer Maia to competitive decisions.
All eight of her submission wins have come by either armbar or rear-naked choke.
Despite a career spent at Strawweight, Viviane Araujo (7-1) stepped up on short notice to face Bantamweight Talita Bernardo at UFC 227. “Vivi” wound up dominating the fight before scoring one of the greatest knockouts in UFC women’s history, a one-punch finish that marked her fourth straight stoppage win.
She has submitted four pro opponents and knocked out another three.
Davis is still a UFC-caliber fighter, but still hasn’t fixed her key issue of not having the wrestling necessary to consistently implement her lethal ground game. Though she packs some solid leg kicks and overall Muay Thai on the feet, she’s badly outgunned by the power-punching Araujo, who boasts superior movement and a killer jab alongside her edge in sheer force.
Despite these women being only two years apart in age, this looks for all the world like a passing of the torch. Araujo out-speeds, out-slugs and out-lands Davis on her way to victory.
Prediction: Araujo via unanimous decision
Related
Rewind! Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 240


145 lbs.: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Yoshinori Horie

The strong run in World Series of Fighting (WSOF) for Hakeem Dawodu (9-1-1) made him a top prospect when he joined UFC in 2018, only for him to suffer a 39-second submission loss to Danny Henry in London. He has since picked up a pair of decisions over Austin Arnett and Kyle Bochniak in just his second and third trips to the judges.
All six of his stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
The undefeated (6-0) Pancrase run for Yoshinori Horie (8-1) hit a roadblock last year in the form of UFC veteran Issei Tamura, who put him away with heavy right hands early in the second round. The 24-year-old proceeded to dispatch Masaya Takita and Hiroshige Tanaka in less than six minutes combined, his fourth and fifth first-round finishes.
Just one of his last seven fights has gone past the second round.
This is the most lopsided fight on the “Prelims” odds-wise and I can’t say that I agree. Horie is a blisteringly fast and powerful young striker who looks to be a handful for most of the division on the feet. Dawodu should still get the win, being a more seasoned and versatile Muay Thai artist, but this is not a -390/+320 fight.
Horie’s counter right will be Dawodu’s greatest area of concern, but once “Mean” Hakeem’s body attack starts flowing and evens up the speed battle, he should take over. Expect a neck-and-neck first round before Dawodu puts in enough attrition to land his knockout blows.
Prediction: Dawodu via second-round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! Holloway Vs Edgar For Featherweight Gold!


145 lbs.: Gavin Tucker vs. Seung Woo Choi

Gavin Tucker (10-1) entered the Octagon with some hype behind him, having stopped eight of his nine professional foes, and spent his first 15 minutes as a UFC competitor out-classing Sam Sicilia in eye-catching fashion. The victory led to oddsmakers labeling “Guv’nor” a huge favorite against Rick Glenn, only for “The Gladiator” to unleash a massive beating that resulted in a 10-7 third round on one scorecard.
This will be his first fights since that Sept. 2017 defeat, as injury scrapped a planned return against Andre Soukhamthath in Oct. 2018.
Seung Woo Choi (7-2) avenged his sole career loss and claimed the TFC Featherweight title by knocking out Jae Woong Kim in Dec. 2017. He made his short-notice UFC debut in St. Petersburg last April against top prospect Movsar Evloev, who out-wrestled his man to claim a unanimous decision.
Five of his professional wins have come via (technical) knockout, three of them in the first round.
There are a lot of intangibles working against Tucker here. Skill-wise, he’s a slick enough striker to give the iron-tough “Sting” everything he can handle, not to mention some wrestling chops with which to further defuse the Korean’s offense. He’s also about four inches shorter, giving up eight inches of reach, hasn’t fought in almost two years, and was on the wrong end of the beating of a lifetime against Glenn.
A tough, relentless slugger with the cardio to keep up the pressure all night seems like the exact wrong opponent against which to end a layoff. Choi’s length and volume carry him to victory in a fight that starts competitive and quickly becomes less so as Tucker fatigues.
Prediction: Choi via unanimous decision
Related
Pic: Official UFC 240: ‘Holloway vs Edgar’ Poster Drops


125 lbs.: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Alexandre Pantoja (21-3) — the No. 1 seed on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 — picked up a pair of wins over future Octagon competitors before dropping a decision to Hiromasa Ogikubo in the semifinals. He is 5-1 in the Octagon itself, most recently stopping former title challenger Wilson Reis last April in Atlanta.
His 16 stoppage wins are split 9:7 between submissions and knockouts.
Deiveson Figueiredo (15-1) lived up to his moniker with brutal knockouts in three of his first four Octagon appearances. This set up a battle with Jussier Formiga last March, which saw the Brazilian “God of War” struggle with his foe’s vaunted grappling en route to his first-ever professional loss.
Eight of his 15 stoppage wins have come in the first round.
If Henry Cejudo has indeed saved the Flyweight division, then he has my un-ironic gratitude, because this is one of many excellent possible match ups. Pantoja is generally plenty aggressive, while Figueiredo is one of the promotion’s most entertaining fighters in any weight class.
This is a war waiting to happen. And as you’d guess from the nickname, Figueiredo is rather good at those.
Pantoja’s crisper and more versatile striking technique isn’t enough to offset Figueiredo’s heinous punching power, and while “The Cannibal” is no slouch in the wrestling department, Figueiredo excels at scrambling back to his feet. Once the takedowns prove ineffective, expect Pantoja to engage the ever-aggressive Figueiredo on the feet and ultimately pay the price.
Prediction: Figueiredo via second-round technical knockout



Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 99-55

[Sanity Check]

Frankie Edgar scoffs at Henry Cejudo’s call out: ‘That dude says a lot of sh*t, most of it’s garbage’

"Garbage"!! How dare he.

I knew there was a reason I didn't like Frankie Edgar.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Holloway odds are jacked at -385.. Frankie not getting enough rspk i believe..

Don't think so market is correct.

[Sanity Check]

Frankie @ 5'6 might be too small for 145. I hope Frankie retires, all he does is whine about Conor.

Frankie Edgar doesn't know how to throw a punch properly.
If Frankie doesn't get his takedown against Jose Aldo or any of the top strikers @ 145 he's just a punching bag with legs. He doesn't offer much resistance.
Lose Frankie lose. I don't normally want to see anyone lose but I got to make an exception here.

Comments taken from the UFC 222 thread ^ where Brian Ortega KO'ed Frankie Edgar with that uppercut.

100% won't mind if history repeats itself.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Cyborg is going to Knock Spencer Down off a Caught Kick then finish with GnP.

[Sanity Check]

Cyborg pushing that fake anti UFC / anti Dana White news narrative.

Hope she enjoys being the next Leslie Smith.

[nyrider88]

can't pass up on edgar at +300. this is probably his last chance at FW belt, so it's a do or die moment. he's lucky to get a crack at it when imo there are others in the division are ahead of him.

[PaperTrail07]

If this fight was across the pond, not just up north, Tsarukyan would be -300 IMO......there is value with him IMO...

[JIBBBY]

I could see Frankie going for take downs against Blessed.. I think that's his best chance and to win by decision.. He stands with Holloway the entire fight he probably gets KO'd at some point..




He needs to do this...

[Hugo de Naranja]

If this fight was across the pond, not just up north, Tsarukyan would be -300 IMO......there is value with him IMO...

Totally agree. I think Former Kunlun Fight Champion Tsarukyan wins a wide decision here.

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[Thor4140]

Been wanting to see Frankie and Blessed fight forever. Card is so bad that it has taking all the luster out of the moment. They have to stop relying on two fights with these cards an start relying on three or four big fights. This crap with relying on two big fights is destine for disaster like this card.

[LBfightlife]

I get it.....I just see a top fighter w a possible rattle situation coming off a bad loss and an up and comer who MAY dig deep ....Spencer will no doubt have to survive a wild 2:30....IF she does I feel she may turn the tide 29-28 or some shit....

In the embedded, Cyborg seems very focused and relaxed, very determined, still doing extra media for the fans. Spencer is all fan girl'in and savoring her 15 minutes of fame because I think she know's that's all she is going to get for now. She's just not on Cyroid level to handle the hot leather she's going to eat. I can't see her ground game being enough to get the finish, especially once they get slippery. Cybrog won't gas early so her path to victory gets much slimmer. She won't be able to stand in the pocket and gain any respect much less rock cybong like Nunes did.


my 2cents