Official Excluding Main Event, rest of the card UFC 229 thread (Oct 6 2018)

[Sanity Check]

MMA thread nobody cares

When they say you have to work twice as long for half of what you're being paid now.

You'll say. "Nobody cares. I don't care."

Its how they programmed you to think.

[Thrilla]

On Episode 1 of UFC 229 Embedded, lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes his training camp, surrounded by his coach, fans and "big energy." Former lightweight champions Tony Ferguson and Anthony Pettis prepare in their respective hometowns for a high-stakes co-main event. And two-division champ Conor McGregor returns to form, gathering his team for a late-night training session in Las Vegas. UFC 229 Embedded is an all-access, behind-the-scenes video blog leading up to UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor taking place Saturday, October 6th on Pay-Per-View.

On Episode 2 of UFC 229 Embedded, lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov takes in BJJ and BBQ with the Vegas branch of his MMA family. Two-division champion Conor McGregor tapers his training at the UFC Performance Institute. Lightweight Tony Ferguson stays sharp with elements of basketball and rola bola, while opponent Anthony Pettis keeps comfortable in combat at his longtime Milwaukee gym. And strawweight star Michelle Waterson kicks off her fight week with a song.

On Episode 3 of UFC 229 Embedded, two-division champion Conor McGregor arrives in style for autographs and drills at UFC headquarters. Former lightweight champion Tony Ferguson gets light therapy, as opponent Anthony Pettis journeys to Las Vegas alongside his brother, UFC 229 flyweight Sergio Pettis. More main card fighters check in, including strawweights Michelle Waterson and Felice Herrig and heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Alexander Volkov. Post-photo shoot, lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov gets a first look at the custom jewelry he inspired.

[Sirius]

Aside from Conor ITD I like Formiga over Pettis, up and comer Reyes over OSP...probably best to lay off a probable close women's decision but I prefer Waterson.

You guys have time to back off Khabib...everything is set perfect for him to lose!

[Thrilla]

Official Weigh-Ins

Advised to use scroll bar to jump through the video.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Really excited for this card. Have done well the past couple cards and moved into 10th on Toutmaster. Hopefully the good times continue! Let's get it.

2018 UFC SBR YTD: -0.55 units

Pettis vs. Formiga

Formiga (+135) 3 u

Ladd vs. Evinger

Evinger ITD (+625) 0.7 u
Evinger (+155) 0.8 u

Maynard vs. Lentz

Maynard Decision (+285) 1 u

Laflare vs. Martin

Laflare (-145) 2.9 u to win 2 u

Parlays

Reyes + Volkov (+122) 1 u

Best of luck to everyone! I like Khabib but still undecided on how I want to play that fight. May also add a small play on Waterson.

[Thrilla]

Ceremonial Weigh-In

[turbozed]

Really excited for this card. Have done well the past couple cards and moved into 10th on Toutmaster. Hopefully the good times continue! Let's get it.

2018 UFC SBR YTD: -0.55 units

Pettis vs. Formiga

Formiga (+135) 3 u

Ladd vs. Evinger

Evinger ITD (+625) 0.7 u
Evinger (+155) 0.8 u

Maynard vs. Lentz

Maynard Decision (+285) 1 u

Laflare vs. Martin

Laflare (-145) 2.9 u to win 2 u

Parlays

Reyes + Volkov (+122) 1 u

Best of luck to everyone! I like Khabib but still undecided on how I want to play that fight. May also add a small play on Waterson.

How do you see Waterson winning this fight? Outside striking? Grappling?

[Demonata]

[WolfTicketDealer]

How do you see Waterson winning this fight? Outside striking? Grappling?

I see her using a range striking game and mixing in takedowns to win a close, potentially controversial decision. It certainly isn't a play I love, Waterson is at a size (and strength) disadvantage, which matters more in WMMA than Men's.

In part it's a contrarian play; from what I've heard sharps love Herrig and I think Herrig will be the more popular pick in Toutmaster. I see this being a fairly close fight, with Waterson edging it but wouldn't be shocked if the size difference is too much for Waterson to overcome.

[Shagdogy]

Herrig -115, 2u to win 1.74u
Evinger +138, 1.5u to win 2.07
Lewis +130, .77u to win 1u

Reyes round 1 +140, .71u to win 1u
Ferg/Pettis FDGTD -130, 2u to win 1.54u

Reyes + Kunitskaya +115, 1.5u to win 1.72u
Patrick + LaFlare +142, 1u to win 1.42u
Khabib + Ferg +101, 1u to win 1.01u

That’s it for me so far. I kind of like the Formiga by sub prop at +350 but I’m picking Sergio to win that fight and I think I’ll just avoid the stab there. Also was hoping to get more plus money on Luque/Turner o1.5 cause I think that’s got a solid shot, but at +150 I’m laying off. Not sure there’s anything else I’ll be adding. Good luck everyone. Definitely excited for this card.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor Picks:
Ryan LaFlare Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Nik Lentz Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Yana Kunitskaya Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alan Patrick Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Tonya Evinger Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Vicente Luque Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jussier Formiga Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Felice Herrig Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Alexander Volkov Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Tony Ferguson Round 2 Submission (D’Arce Choke)
Khabib Nurmagomedov Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: LaFlare vs. Martin
LaFlare (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
LaFlare Submission (+1425) .5u

Hedge:
Martin Submission (+740) .5u

Fight #2: Lentz vs. Maynard
No Bet

Fight #3: Kunitskaya vs. Lansberg
Kunitskaya -3.5 (+140) 2u
Kunitskaya KO/TKO (+530) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Patrick vs. Holtzman
Patrick -3.5 (+130) 1u

Hedge(s):
Turner KO/TKO (+1330) .5u
Turner Round 1 (+2200) .5u

Fight #5: Ladd vs. Evinger
Evinger (+150) 1u
Evinger Scorecards = No Action (+295) 1u
Evinger ITD (+850) .5u

Hedge(s):
Ladd Submission (+1105) 1u
Ladd Round 2 (+725) .25u
Ladd Round 3 (+925) .25u

Fight #6: Luque vs. Turner (DEBUT)
Luque KO/TKO (+205) 1u

Fight #7: Formiga vs. Pettis
Formiga (+140) 3.5u
Formiga ITD (+400) .5u
Formiga Submission (+585) 1u

Hedge:
Pettis KO/TKO (+910) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Herrig vs. Waterson
Herrig (-130) 3.25u to win 2.5u
Herrig+Waterson Under 2.5 (+415) 1u
Herrig ITD (+760) .5u

Hedge:
Waterson Submission (+1050) .5u

Fight #9: Volkov vs. Lewis
Volkov Round 3 (+1200) .25u

Hedge:
Lewis ITD (+224) 1u

Fight #10: Reyes vs. Saint Preux
Reyes Round 1 (+165) 1u
Reyes Decision (+734) .5u
Reyes Submission (+905) .5u

Hedge:
Saint Preux Submission (+555) 1u

Fight #11: Ferguson vs. Pettis
Ferguson ITD (+150) 1u
Ferguson Round 2 (+550) 1.25u
Ferguson Round 3 (+925) .5u
Ferguson+Pettis Draw (+8000) .1u

Hedge(s):
Pettis Round 1 (+1100) 1u
Pettis Submission (+1175) .5u

Fight #12: Nurmagomedov (C) vs. McGregor
Nurmagomedov (-150) 3u to win 2u
Nurmagomedov+McGregor Won’t Start Round 3 (-112) 2.24u to win 2u
Nurmagomedov KO/TKO (+370) 1u
Nurmagomedov Submission (+465) 2u
Nurmagomedov Unanimous Decision (+485) 1u
Nurmagomedov+McGregor Draw (+8500) .1u

Hedge(s):
McGregor Round 1 (+408) 1.5u
McGregor Round 2 (+700) .5u
McGregor Decision (+1240) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Reyes/Ferguson (+110) 3.5u
Kunitskaya/Herrig (+178) 1u
LaFlare/Kunitskaya/Patrick/Herrig/Nurmagomedov+McGregor U2.5 (+1007) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Luque+Turner WGD/Ferguson (+100) 1.5u
Kunitskaya/Nurmagomedov+McGregor WSR5 (+113) 1.5u
Luque+Turner WSR3/Nurmagomedov (+114) 1.5u
LaFlare/Luque+Turner WGD (+137) 1u
Patrick Decision/Luque+Turner WGD (+147) 1u
Patrick+Holtzman GD/Ferguson+Pettis WGD (+155) 1u
LaFlare Decision/Patrick Decision (+224) 1u
Evinger/Formiga/Reyes -3.5 (+824) .5u
Ferguson Round 2/Nurmagomedov Round 2 (+3800) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+251) 1.2u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+722) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2700) .2u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+16100) .1u

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

[Hugo de Naranja]

I also have and Turner KO/TKO (+1330) .5u and Turner Round 1 (+2200) .5u. Must have cut them out when I was moving everything around.

[Shagdogy]

Herrig -115, 2u to win 1.74u
Evinger +138, 1.5u to win 2.07
Lewis +130, .77u to win 1u

Reyes round 1 +140, .71u to win 1u
Ferg/Pettis FDGTD -130, 2u to win 1.54u

Reyes + Kunitskaya +115, 1.5u to win 1.72u
Patrick + LaFlare +142, 1u to win 1.42u
Khabib + Ferg +101, 1u to win 1.01u

That’s it for me so far. I kind of like the Formiga by sub prop at +350 but I’m picking Sergio to win that fight and I think I’ll just avoid the stab there. Also was hoping to get more plus money on Luque/Turner o1.5 cause I think that’s got a solid shot, but at +150 I’m laying off. Not sure there’s anything else I’ll be adding. Good luck everyone. Definitely excited for this card.

Added:
Patrick + Reyes/OSP u1.5 +108, 1u to win 1.08u

[Shagdogy]

Kunitskaya just too much for Lansberg. Too strong in clinch, and if Lansberg can't win in clinch, then she just can't win period. Just need Reyes to finish the job for that parlay.

[Demonata]

I hope all you motha fumes dojng good up in this bitch. Im drunk as hell

[Shagdogy]

Horrible performance and game plan from Patrick. Excellent performance from Holtzman. No clue what Patrick was doing opening up with a range game.

[Demonata]

Demons we kunyan won we just need one more motha fuvkerd

[Demonata]

Vicente time motha fuvkersdssss

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Volkov ITD (+275) 1u

[Demonata]

This card easy si far m....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Formiga/Herrig/Volkov (+657) .5u

[Sanity Check]

Joe Rogan saying MMA lab is "one of the best MMA gyms in the world", when their win/loss record could easily be something like 5-30.

Imagine a NFL commentator saying the cleveland browns were one of the best teams despite their 0-16 record in 2017.

That's what Joe Rogan is doing everytime he praises John Crouch/The Lab -- even if he doesn't pay enough attention to his own sport to realize it.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Added Parlay: Nurmagomedov -5.5 + Reyes -3.5 (+164) 2 u

[WolfTicketDealer]

Added: Ferguson Round 3 (+1000) 0.5 u

[Demonata]

Card so easy money. Got black beast lewis

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Nurmagomedov -5.5 (-135) 2.7u to win 2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

30-26 Waterson is one of the worst cards I've seen in awhile

[Demonata]

Derrick lewis timeee!!!! Lets go demons!!!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Bet:
Lewis+Volkov Goes Distance (+180) .5u

Lewis (+250) 1u

[Demonata]

Lewis looking like shit!!! Worse than when he fought roy Nelson

[yisman]

I maxed the under there.

Under 2.5 lost, too bad. Got some of it back with not ITD

[yisman]

Lewis looking like shit!!! Worse than when he fought roy Nelson

surprisingly, he had something left and landed some shots to finish Volkov

[Hugo de Naranja]

The beast does it again. Another comeback win

[yisman]

Lewis just took his pants off