UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs. Poirier(July 28, 2018)

[Demonata]

Thrilla is a good guy but he can certainly get outside of himself at times.

Meds could be needed ..

Im going to be drunk as hell during this card saying dumb shit like usual.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Im going to be drunk as hell during this card saying dumb shit like usual.

I'm looking forward to it.

[Demonata]

I dont get why everyone doesn't just take johanna jose and dustin. All going to win. Johanna will outstrike torres the whole fight and will win a decision. Aldo will out strike stephens and win a decision once stephens fades after first round trying to get ko. Poirer will rock eddie again and win the striking battle and is quicker.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What do you like about the matchup? There just isn't too much tape on Hernandez, he absolutely mauled Dariush.

OAM comes from a more respected camp and seems to have the ground/sub advantage, and the fact that he put Dunham away is still impressive.

Hey Hurl, sorry for the late response.

I think OAM has showed a lot of improving skills in his recent win streak. His Judo TDs and back take game are top notch and he is also developing his striking game. Hernandez has some tools in all areas and is definitely a decent fighter but I think OAM has a pretty solid grappling edge here. Being able to control where the fight takes place and staying dangerous on the mat are significant advantages that will help OAM here. Even in a worst case scenario where he doesn't get Hernandez down (or doesn't try), I think OAM is live on the feet here.

Although it was a nice win over Dariush (I cashed a wager on Hernandez KO/TKO at +1210), I'm reluctant to immediately call Hernandez a top LW after beating the most beatable Top 15 LW. Dariush's questionable chin means that he will sometimes lose to fighters that he is clearly better than, i.e. Ramsey Nijem. I think I would be higher on Hernandez' upside if he outclassed Dariush in a three round decision and I feel that guys like Gillespie and Hooker would beat Hernandez easily. For me, Hernandez rising up the ranks and getting a tough matchup against OAM is quite similar to Josh Emmett rocketing up the ranks after he Knocked Out Lamas and getting more than he could handle in his next matchup.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good to know. What are your thoughts on the grappling matchup? I'd prob play bigger if I could get a better read on that.

I think Ansaroff will probably look to stuff TDs and keep it on the feet since she has a solid advantage there imo. If it goes to the mat Ansaroff is no fish out of water but I would give a slight grappling advantage to Markos once the fight hits the mat.

[Hugo de Naranja]

To add to my earlier thoughts, Hernandez is a guy that really relied on his wrestling to beat low level competition on the Texas Regional Scene. He dominated on the local scene because many of his opponents had no idea how to defend a TD or how to get up when taken down. Hernandez also had a huge athleticism advantage which I don't believe will be the case here. OAM's Takedown Defense Percentage sits at 83.3% in his UFC career so far and I believe that whoever wins the grappling exchanges will win this fight.

[firekillex]

I dont get why everyone doesn't just take johanna jose and dustin. All going to win. Johanna will outstrike torres the whole fight and will win a decision. Aldo will out strike stephens and win a decision once stephens fades after first round trying to get ko. Poirer will rock eddie again and win the striking battle and is quicker.

with you on all 3
lets get that paper

[Sanity Check]

I dont get why everyone doesn't just take johanna jose and dustin. All going to win.

Re-watch Tecia's fight with Andrade. Note the beautiful right hand Tecia lands repeatedly in that fight. The setup to that right hand and its technique in the way its delivered, could be better than anything Joanna has shown with her kickboxing. Tecia's standup could be better than Joanna's.

Jose Aldo has fought names like Frankie Edgar who Jeremy Stephens has also fought. They were both close to being on the same level judging from past fights. The difference there is, Jeremy Stephens kickboxing has increased dramatically wheras Jose Aldo's kickboxing may have stayed the same. That could be enough to give Stephens an edge.

I don't recognize Dustin Ortiz's opponent. If I remember right Ortiz won his last fight with his cardio and pace. It is a win but not necessarily the way you want to see someone win a fight. At least from a betting perspective.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Re-watch Tecia's fight with Andrade. Note the beautiful right hand Tecia lands repeatedly in that fight. The setup to that right hand and its technique in the way its delivered, could be better than anything Joanna has shown with her kickboxing. Tecia's standup could be better than Joanna's.

Jose Aldo has fought names like Frankie Edgar who Jeremy Stephens has also fought. They were both close to being on the same level judging from past fights. The difference there is, Jeremy Stephens kickboxing has increased dramatically wheras Jose Aldo's kickboxing may have stayed the same. That could be enough to give Stephens an edge.

I don't recognize Dustin Ortiz's opponent. If I remember right Ortiz won his last fight with his cardio and pace. It is a win but not necessarily the way you want to see someone win a fight. At least from a betting perspective.

Nicolau is really good. Check out his fights with Smolka or Korea.

[firekillex]

highly assuming he meant dustin porier

[TJcaliente]

Top 2 fights are to close to place a bet on for me but I'm a Pulling for Poirier and Stephens. I have some money on Joanna but not much at -285. She's a little beast but not a fan of her style although effective unless your name is Rose.

[firekillex]

Top 2 fights are to close to place a bet on for me but I'm a Pulling for Poirier and Stephens. I have some money on Joanna but not much at -285. She's a little beast but not a fan of her style although effective unless your name is Rose.

tbh if you like JJ taking the decision prob for -133 has much more value

[brooks85]

given recent fights, recent comments and stephens fighting style; I see aldo getting wrecked if he is anything like the fighter we've seen recently.

Aldo is talking about retiring, stephens is thinking about championships still and the fire is raging. They are both the same age but aldo isn't right mentally and stephens will find that chin at least once in this fight.

[stonebanks]

Mercier or Hernandez? I’m a big Canadian Gangster fan but I don’t know if he takes this one. Flash KO in the last fight and he got dropped against Dober. I’m tempted to just go for ITD as my main bet. Thoughts?

Nm - Seen this has been discussed above.
Poirier and dawodu parlay. Austin Arnett is dog S.

[HurlSweatPants]

Stephens line has moved (finally) to where I thought it would've opened.

Interesting that OAM/Hernandez is now a pick em.

[HurlSweatPants]

Hey Hurl, sorry for the late response.

I think OAM has showed a lot of improving skills in his recent win streak. His Judo TDs and back take game are top notch and he is also developing his striking game. Hernandez has some tools in all areas and is definitely a decent fighter but I think OAM has a pretty solid grappling edge here. Being able to control where the fight takes place and staying dangerous on the mat are significant advantages that will help OAM here. Even in a worst case scenario where he doesn't get Hernandez down (or doesn't try), I think OAM is live on the feet here.

Although it was a nice win over Dariush (I cashed a wager on Hernandez KO/TKO at +1210), I'm reluctant to immediately call Hernandez a top LW after beating the most beatable Top 15 LW. Dariush's questionable chin means that he will sometimes lose to fighters that he is clearly better than, i.e. Ramsey Nijem. I think I would be higher on Hernandez' upside if he outclassed Dariush in a three round decision and I feel that guys like Gillespie and Hooker would beat Hernandez easily. For me, Hernandez rising up the ranks and getting a tough matchup against OAM is quite similar to Josh Emmett rocketing up the ranks after he Knocked Out Lamas and getting more than he could handle in his next matchup.

No worries my guy.

I am just uneasy betting for or against Hernandez at this point. I just can't gauge his talent level...is he a byproduct of a great opening UFC matchup? Probably. Did he dominate the regional circuit b.c he was bigger and had better wrestling? Yep. For all the answers I have about him, it just leaves more questions that I won't know until he fights more.

BOL on your play, hope you waited or are waiting on OAM, if this swing keeps going he will be at + money very soon.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Figured I'd start posting a bit more and posting some bets (I would post tomorrow but I will be out of the country). I am currently 15th in Toutmaster. Onto the bets!

Stephens vs. Aldo

Aldo (-120) 2.4 u to win 2 u
Aldo Decision (+160) 1.5 u
Aldo KO/TKO (+1085) .2 u
Stephens/Aldo Draw (+7000) .1 u

Hedge:
Stephens Round 3 (+1075) .2 u

OAM vs. Hernandez

OAM (-120) 1.8 u
OAM -3.5 (+150) 1.4 u

Cutelaba v. Antigulov

Cutelaba (+105) 1.4 u
Cutelaba Decision (+500) .4 u

Davis v. Chookagian

Davis Decision (+250) 1.9 u
Davis (+130) 1 u

[Thrilla]

Thrilla is a good guy but he can certainly get outside of himself at times.

Meds could be needed ..

Thx for the kind words Jibbbs.

When civil war breaks out and 'the hunt is on' against the Trump tards. I'll let you hide in my basement.

[brooks85]

Thx for the kind words Jibbbs.

When civil war breaks out and 'the hunt is on' against the Trump tards. I'll let you hide in my basement.

hey idiot, liberals don't how to use guns or anything for that matter so learn wtf the word "hunt" means you dumbass. Christ you're a penetrating stupid, honestly.


Implying liberals can hunt lol penetrating joke

[JIBBBY]

Thx for the kind words Jibbbs.

When civil war breaks out and 'the hunt is on' against the Trump tards. I'll let you hide in my basement.

Lighten up Thrilla as you contribute alot to these Event threads, I was joking.. Keep up the good work and vid posts..

Oh and Thanks for the basement offer as well, I'll take it in tough times.. ...

[MMANick]

hey idiot, liberals don't how to use guns or anything for that matter so learn wtf the word "hunt" means you dumbass. Christ you're a penetrating stupid, honestly.


Implying liberals can hunt lol penetrating joke

Read this over and tell me if you have any right to call somebody stupid, Brooks...

[HurlSweatPants]

Figured I'd start posting a bit more and posting some bets (I would post tomorrow but I will be out of the country). I am currently 15th in Toutmaster. Onto the bets!

Stephens vs. Aldo

Aldo (-120) 2.4 u to win 2 u
Aldo Decision (+160) 1.5 u
Aldo KO/TKO (+1085) .2 u
Stephens/Aldo Draw (+7000) .1 u

Hedge:
Stephens Round 3 (+1075) .2 u

OAM vs. Hernandez

OAM (-120) 1.8 u
OAM -3.5 (+150) 1.4 u

Cutelaba v. Antigulov

Cutelaba (+105) 1.4 u
Cutelaba Decision (+500) .4 u

Davis v. Chookagian

Davis Decision (+250) 1.9 u
Davis (+130) 1 u

BOL!

[UncleChael]

Tell em Uncle Chael motha fukking sent yah
Dustin Poirier by decision +550. Only play.

[Sanity Check]

This event begins 2-4 hours earlier than normal?

Might have a hard time waking up for this 1.

[Sirius]

Ok so I like Poirier and Stephens...I'm going to pad them with earlier action picks Markos and Mercier to try and let it ride and hit a 4 teamer

Justice for Poirier and Aldo is at risk of getting brutalized...I don't see a point fight. Jeremy has been violent...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Biggest play for tomorrow for me is Nicolau. Have him ML, -3.5, ITD, Submission + Parlays

[JC2008]

This is going to be strange being at my first UFC Live and LIVE betting this bitch! Let's do this! First Fight Pass prelim starts at 2PM here lol. It's gonna be a long day! Good luck everyone!

[Thor4140]

I see Tecia out boxing Joannna and Joanna getting really frustrated and than i see the judges rob Tecia. I really want to unload on Torres but i dont
see this going anywhere but a decision.

[Thor4140]

Read this over and tell me if you have any right to call somebody stupid, Brooks...

Trilla need to keep politics out of the mma threads. It just gives this complete clown Brooks an avenue to start up trouble like he does everywhere else.

[SmellMyFinger]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOLkFYR4qYo

Vivicection up boys !

[Sanity Check]

Thx for the kind words Jibbbs.

When civil war breaks out and 'the hunt is on' against the Trump tards. I'll let you hide in my basement.

hey idiot, liberals don't how to use guns or anything for that matter so learn wtf the word "hunt" means you dumbass. Christ you're a penetrating stupid, honestly.


Implying liberals can hunt lol penetrating joke

Both of you. Come.

Let us roll in the mud like retards.

It will be a hoot.

[brooks85]

Read this over and tell me if you have any right to call somebody stupid, Brooks...

yes, learn to read clown before you tell someone something about what they write... just an idea. I left out the word "idiot," wow you really made a fantastic post there. Brilliant!

jackass lol

[JC2008]

I see Tecia out boxing Joannna and Joanna getting really frustrated and than i see the judges rob Tecia. I really want to unload on Torres but i dont
see this going anywhere but a decision.

Then perhaps a Torres ML bet hedged with JJ decision parlayed with one of the other women's fights to go over 2.5 or gtd?

[nyrider88]

cation on jose. max really shattered his chin in the back to back title fights, then was mentally broken by conor. he is very likely to go down like barao's carrer

[HurlSweatPants]

cation on jose. max really shattered his chin in the back to back title fights, then was mentally broken by conor. he is very likely to go down like barao's carrer

Speaking of Barao, he faced Stephens in 2016, I had to re-watch it to jog my memory. Vegas is basically saying Stephens by dec the way the lines are set.