UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs. Poirier(July 28, 2018)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX 8:00 pm ET
Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Alexander Hernandez

Fox 6:00 pm ET
Jordan Mein vs Alex Morono
Austin Arnett vs Hakeem Dawodu
Kajan Johnson vs Islam Makhachev
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Ion Cutelaba

UFC Fight Pass 4:00 pm ET
John Makdessi vs Ross Pearson
Katlyn Chookagian vs Alexis Davis
Matheus Nicolau vs Dustin Ortiz
Nina Ansaroff vs Randa Markos
Alvaro Herrera vs Devin Powell

[Demonata]

This is an amazing card!!!!

[HurlSweatPants]

FOX 8:00 pm ET
Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Alexander Hernandez

Fox 6:00 pm ET
Jordan Mein vs Alex Morono
Austin Arnett vs Hakeem Dawodu
Kajan Johnson vs Islam Makhachev
Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Ion Cutelaba

UFC Fight Pass 4:00 pm ET
John Makdessi vs Ross Pearson
Katlyn Chookagian vs Alexis Davis
Matheus Nicolau vs Dustin Ortiz
Nina Ansaroff vs Randa Markos
Alvaro Herrera vs Devin Powell

Thx Lock

[UncleChael]

A gust of wind and he does the chicken dance I hit all the main events this year. Tell em Uncle Chael sent yah.

[HurlSweatPants]

Stephens/Aldo very interesting, Aldo should be a dog, and a live one. Not sure stylistically that this is the guy that Lil Heathen wants.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Stephens/Aldo very interesting, Aldo should be a dog, and a live one. Not sure stylistically that this is the guy that Lil Heathen wants.

Stephens is definitely live to win by KO, but Aldo should be favored IMO. This being only 3 rounds helps Aldo, not to mention Aldo's super tough to outstrike (Holloway's the only one to do it in recent memory).

[Hugo de Naranja]

Stephens is definitely live to win by KO, but Aldo should be favored IMO. This being only 3 rounds helps Aldo, not to mention Aldo's super tough to outstrike (Holloway's the only one to do it in recent memory).

People will definitely bring up the Conor fight as well, as it was a KO loss for Aldo. Beating Aldo in a technical kickboxing match that goes the three round distance would still be a major accomplishment for any fighter imo.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm going back and forth with someone out there on 5Dimes Max betting the Hernandez+Aubin-Mercier matchup. Will have big exposure on that fight.

[Richard Clock]

Already laying 1 and a half units on Pearson at those odds (+160). Look at all the killers Pearson has faced semi-recently: Hooker, Steven Ray, Masvidal, Brooks, Trinaldo, Felder, Dunham, Iaquinta. Pearson has always been game and this is a winnable fight for him.

[Richard Clock]

Already laying 1 and a half units on Pearson at those odds. Look at all the killers Pearson has faced semi-recently: Hooker, Steven Ray, Masvidal, Brooks, Trinaldo, Felder, Dunham, Iaquinta. Pearson has always been game and this is a winnable fight for him.

Line already down to +145 on 5D soon after I placed the bet

[Bad Tattoo]

EVEN Stephens all day...Aldo is done

[Sanity Check]

Stephens is definitely live to win by KO, but Aldo should be favored IMO. This being only 3 rounds

It is only 3 rounds.

Then again, Max Holloway finished Aldo in the 3rd round both times.

[Hugo de Naranja]

It is only 3 rounds.

Then again, Max Holloway finished Aldo in the 3rd round both times.

Max Holloway > Jeremy Stephens

[Hugo de Naranja]

Canadians:
OAM (Quebec)
Mein (Alberta)
Dawodu (Alberta)
Johnson (Quebec)
Makdessi (Quebec)
Davis (Ontario)
Markos (Quebec)

Since we all know how fuckedd Canadian judges are, I typed up a quick list of all the fighters on this card that are associated with Canada, along with their provinces. Dawodu is the only one who fights directly out of Calgary but Mein is from Alberta as well. Most of the rest are from Quebec with the only exception being Alexis Davis. Let me know if I'm forgetting anyone.

[Thor4140]

I think Tecia picks Joanna apart. Will she get the decision that is another question. I don’t see this going anything but a decision. Aldo is the best boxer little heathen has faced in some time. I see Aldo having his way here. Frankie had his way with Stevens and I’m not to sold on Melendez as he comes from a camp that is allergic to stopping leg kicks. Emmit floored him in their fight. I like Aldo here.

[firekillex]

Max Holloway > Jeremy Stephens

couldnt be any different fighters lol
mma math doesnt work

[Sanity Check]

Max Holloway > Jeremy Stephens

B-b-but Jeremy Stephens evolved from pikachu into raichu after that loss to Renato Moicano.

The way he fought from Gilbert Melendez onwards was completely different from the way he fought in his previous fights.

Jose Aldo has always looked stellar against shorter opponents like Chad Mendes and Frankie Edgar.

Where Aldo has struggled the most is against opponents taller than him, with longer reach. Guys like Korean Zombie, Conor and Max gave Aldo the most trouble. Stephens being maybe an inch taller than Aldo could mean this fight will be much more even than people realize.

Stephens should be considered a live dog imo. Don't count the man out.

[WolfTicketDealer]

B-b-but Jeremy Stephens evolved from pikachu into raichu after that loss to Renato Moicano.

The way he fought from Gilbert Melendez onwards was completely different from the way he fought in his previous fights.

Jose Aldo has always looked stellar against shorter opponents like Chad Mendes and Frankie Edgar.

Where Aldo has struggled the most is against opponents taller than him, with longer reach. Guys like Korean Zombie, Conor and Max gave Aldo the most trouble. Stephens being maybe an inch taller than Aldo could mean this fight will be much more even than people realize.

Stephens should be considered a live dog imo. Don't count the man out.

Nobody is counting out Stephens, as I said he's certainly live to win by KO. Holloway is still a terrible comparison as Blessed is a far, far superior striker.

Honestly reach is like dick size. One inch (which Stephens has over Aldo) isn't going to make much of a difference. Unless its over a 4-5 inch difference I wouldn't factor that element in very much.

[WolfTicketDealer]

If you like Stephens, it's probably best to live bet him as he almost always loses Round 1. I also wouldn't hate a play on Stephens Round 3 (which I may bet if it's +1000 or better). Draw could be live as well, I could see Aldo winning the first two and Stephens coming back in the third (maybe a KD or two) for a 10-8.

Still think Aldo (esp by decision) is the play but the above are intriguing hedging opps (I don't think there will be enough value on Stephens by KO to warrant a bet).

[Hugo de Naranja]

couldnt be any different fighters lol
mma math doesnt work

It’s not an MMA math thing. Holloway’s volume and technical striking ability is on another level. He is better than both Aldo and Stephens. My point is that assuming Aldo is “done” because he got beat by the best FTW in the world is foolish because Holloway beat Stephens and Stephens can’t use the same high volume approach that Holloway used to beat Aldo (especially in their second fight). I think Stephens may need a finish to win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

If you like Stephens, it's probably best to live bet him as he almost always loses Round 1. I also wouldn't hate a play on Stephens Round 3 (which I may bet if it's +1000 or better). Draw could be live as well, I could see Aldo winning the first two and Stephens coming back in the third (maybe a KD or two) for a 10-8.

Still think Aldo (esp by decision) is the play but the above are intriguing hedging opps (I don't think there will be enough value on Stephens by KO to warrant a bet).

Also, Aldo almost always wins R1, even in the Holloway fights. A fresh Aldo is very hard to outpoint.

[UncleChael]

People think this going to be war, this isnt going to be a war. Its going to be a one sided pounding and Im swinging the hammer - Jose Aldo

[HurlSweatPants]

I think Tecia picks Joanna apart. Will she get the decision that is another question. I don’t see this going anything but a decision. Aldo is the best boxer little heathen has faced in some time. I see Aldo having his way here. Frankie had his way with Stevens and I’m not to sold on Melendez as he comes from a camp that is allergic to stopping leg kicks. Emmit floored him in their fight. I like Aldo here.

I think for Tecia to win she needs to copy Claudias game plan. Torres cardio is top notch (as is JJ's) and being a 3 round fight is at her advantage b/c she doesn't have to try to keep JJ grounded the whole round, just long enough to win points. If the Claudia JJ fight would have been a 3 rounder, she would've lost that fight as she was dominated round 1 and 2. If this turns into a boxing match and never really hits the floor, I would be surprised to see JJ lose on the feet. Tecia is great, but she is not THUG ROSE. THUG ROOOOOSE.

[firekillex]

JJ is just a bigger/better Tecia Torres imo

pumped to see Andrade aka lesbian justin bieber vs Thug Rose soon though , that should be fireworks

[slikec]

I'm going back and forth with someone out there on 5Dimes Max betting the Hernandez+Aubin-Mercier matchup. Will have big exposure on that fight.

What is your bet here(i think is OAM but wanna be sure)?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

JJ is just a bigger/better Tecia Torres imo

pumped to see Andrade aka lesbian justin bieber vs Thug Rose soon though , that should be fireworks

I wouldn't be surprised to see Torres win. Even during JJ's title reign, she was often outpointed in early rounds only to come back strong in rounds 3,4,5. Torres might be able to get her down and grind out a couple of rounds.

[Hugo de Naranja]

JJ is just a bigger/better Tecia Torres imo

pumped to see Andrade aka lesbian justin bieber vs Thug Rose soon though , that should be fireworks

I think they made a pointless fight between Andrade and KK which will certainly kill a good contender no matter the result.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What is your bet here(i think is OAM but wanna be sure)?

What makes you think it’s OAM?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Torres win. Even during JJ's title reign, she was often outpointed in early rounds only to come back strong in rounds 3,4,5. Torres might be able to get her down and grind out a couple of rounds.

JJ’s style is definitely suited better to 5 rounds than 3.

[firekillex]

I think they made a pointless fight between Andrade and KK which will certainly kill a good contender no matter the result.

agreed. some of the worst matchmaking in a while... cant see how Andrade doesnt steam roll her though and get the title shot

Andrade just seems like a beast in there literally is like a mix of John Lineker and DC but at straweight , would be super interesting to see how Rose would deal with that, shes super slick off her back , kind of reminds me of an Anthony Pettis fighter amazing striking and guard game , 5 rounds helps her a lot

[firekillex]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Torres win. Even during JJ's title reign, she was often outpointed in early rounds only to come back strong in rounds 3,4,5. Torres might be able to get her down and grind out a couple of rounds.

cant disagree on that , but i think she knows the difference between the 5 round fights where she has time to settle in then a 3 round fight where she can just push the pace hard for 15 minutes, id be surprised if she got an L here , imo shes just a better version of Torres with length .... If Torres can get her down then itll be a different story though

[JAKEPEAVY21]

agreed. some of the worst matchmaking in a while... cant see how Andrade doesnt steam roll her though and get the title shot

Andrade just seems like a beast in there literally is like a mix of John Lineker and DC but at straweight , would be super interesting to see how Rose would deal with that, shes super slick off her back , kind of reminds me of an Anthony Pettis fighter amazing striking and guard game , 5 rounds helps her a lot

agreed on Andrade, she throws down like Lineker.

[Shagdogy]

Canadians:
OAM (Quebec)
Mein (Alberta)
Dawodu (Alberta)
Johnson (Quebec)
Makdessi (Quebec)
Davis (Ontario)
Markos (Quebec)

Since we all know how fuckedd Canadian judges are, I typed up a quick list of all the fighters on this card that are associated with Canada, along with their provinces. Dawodu is the only one who fights directly out of Calgary but Mein is from Alberta as well. Most of the rest are from Quebec with the only exception being Alexis Davis. Let me know if I'm forgetting anyone.

Davis and Markos must get good looks given the Canada angle. Both of those fights likely to go to decision, and WMMA fights often tend to have little of significance to separate the two women in terms of who wins or loses on the cards. I haven't capped either, but I'll be looking for reasons to bet Davis and Markos, as the Canada angle is probably enough for me to lay off their opponents entirely.

[Sanity Check]

It’s not an MMA math thing. Holloway’s volume and technical striking ability is on another level. He is better than both Aldo and Stephens.

I have a feeling this ^ quotation will not age well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I have a feeling this ^ quotation will not age well.

I mean he beat them both in kickboxing heavy fights already so there is good evidence for this opinion.