UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros (February 18, 2018)

[Hugo de Naranja]

I blew it going in early at these odds .. Horrible placement timing.. I didn't go in for more either at the current odds..

Also have Cowboy by sub for small and forgot to mention it.. These Cowboy bets I placed over a week ago unfortunately....

I'm embarrassed to even post this up now...

$500.00

$312.50

Pending

2/18/18 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Donald Cerrone -160* vs Yancy Medeiros

$50.00

$225.00

Pending

2/18/18 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1039 Cerrone wins by submission +450* vs Any other result

No problem man. It's hard to guess where lines will move sometimes.

[JIBBBY]

No problem man. It's hard to guess where lines will move sometimes.

I thought for sure the Cowboy line would go up and not down that's why I went in early.. This line movement still has me scratching my head???

UFC Fight Night 126 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1
Sun 2/18		1001 Yancy Medeiros		-115	o2½ +115
11:30PM		1002 Donald Cerrone		-105	u2½ -135

If Cowboy does get dropped again then the line movement will make sense and I'll probably never bet on him ever again.. The Cowboy of a few years ago would destroy Yancy IMO anyways and I'm hoping that Cowboy shows up...

[ken10]

A slight motivation angle in cerrones favor is that Yancy is Nate’s training partner and hell wantthis one bad

[JIBBBY]

Funny thing about MMA fighters is some when they get cracked and KO'd grow a beard as they think that protects the chin a little more.. I don't ever remember Cowboy sporting a beard like this.. LOL...

[JC2008]

Jibbby -- Don't be embarassed for getting weak lines. You won't feel that way if Cerrone wins (especially by sub). Are you going to hedge with Yancy at all...?

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby -- Don't be embarassed for getting weak lines. You won't feel that way if Cerrone wins (especially by sub). Are you going to hedge with Yancy at all...?

Was thinking of hedging with Yancy by KO prop but the odds aren't nearly good enough.. NO HEDGE.... If this were +350 below I would have. Or if I had bet Cowboy on the current line now I would consider the insurance only hedge now..

I think Cowboy is gonna have a big advantage with his kicking game and maybe even wrestling and take downs... Yancy can crack and box though so Cowboys chin may be tested once again and that does worry me a little bit..

1037 Medeiros wins by TKO/KO

+200

[JC2008]

Was thinking of hedging with Yancy by KO prop but the odds aren't nearly good enough.. NO HEDGE.... If this were +350 below I would have. Or if I had bet Cowboy on the current line now I would consider the insurance only hedge now..

I think Cowboy is gonna have a big advantage with his kicking game and maybe even wrestling and take downs... Yancy can crack and box though so Cowboys chin may be tested once again and that does worry me a little bit..

1037 Medeiros wins by TKO/KO

+200

If you're gonna hedge then just parlay Medeiros ML with Deontay Wilder ML

[Pinoy-T-X]

I just realized that the fight is in Texas.... horrible judging there.

[Slevin07]

2 small parlays at about 32 to 1 odds. Cowboy by ko/sub & pittsburgh penguins to win stanley cup. And Cowboy by ko/sub and leafs to win stanley cup.

Cerrone was focusing on a movie and completely underestimated till. He even watched some tape on Yancy this time, which he usually never does. If Cerrone does lose, I only see it being by ko.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 126: Cerrone vs. Medeiros Picks:
Oskar Piechota Round 2 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Alex Morono Round 1 KO (Punch)
Lucie Pudilova Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Roberto Sanchez Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Geoff Neal Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Jared Gordon Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Sage Northcutt Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Brandon Davis Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Curtis Millender Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
James Vick Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Marcin Tybura Round 3 KO (Head Kick)
Donald Cerrone Round 2 KO (Head Kick and Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 126: Cerrone vs. Medeiros

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Piechota vs. Williams (DEBUT)
Piechota ITD (-102) 1.53u to win 1.5u
Piechota Submission (+350) .5u

Fight #2: Morono vs. Burkman
Morono ITD (+120) 1u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Pudilova vs. Moras
Pudilova -3.5 (+255) 1u

Fight #4: R. Sanchez vs. J. Sanchez
R. Sanchez (+105) 2u

Fight #5: Neal (DEBUT) vs. Camozzi
Neal ITD (-110) 1.1u to win 1u
Neal KO/TKO (+173) 1u

Hedge:
Camozzi Round 3 (+1600) .25u

Fight #6: Gordon vs. Ferreira
Gordon -3.5 (+150) 1.5u
Gordon -3.5 (+160) 1u
Gordon Round 2 (+675) 1u
Gordon Round 3 (+1225) .5u

Hedge(s):
Ferreira ITD (+565) .5u
Ferreira KO/TKO (+1555) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Northcutt vs. Gouti
Northcutt ITD (+102) 1u
Northcutt+Gouti Under 1.5 (+120) 1u
Northcutt Submission (+475) 1u

Hedge:
Gouti Submission (+1040) .5u

Fight #8: Davis vs. Peterson (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #9: Millender (DEBUT) vs. Alves
Millender (+148) 2u

Fight #10: Vick vs. Trinaldo
Vick+Trinaldo Won’t Go Distance (+100) 1u
Vick KO/TKO (+450) 1u

Hedge(s):
Trinaldo ITD (+506) .5u
Trinaldo KO/TKO (+750) .5u

Fight #11: Lewis vs. Tybura
Lewis ITD (+250) 2u
Lewis KO/TKO (+300) .5u

Hedge(s):
Tybura -3.5 (+125) 1u
Tybura KO/TKO (+300) 1u

Fight #12: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Cerrone (-115) 6.3u to win 5.5u
Cerrone KO/TKO (+450) 1u
Cerrone Decision (+506) 1u

Hedge(s):
Medeiros KO/TKO (+308) 1u
Medeiros Submission (+900) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Morono/Neal (+106) 1u
Gordon/Cerrone+Medeiros WGD (+121) 2u

Prop Parlays:
Piechota -3.5/Morono -3.5/Pudilova Decision (+437) .25u
Vick -3.5/Tybura/Cerrone+Medeiros WSR4 (+438) .25u
Northcutt -3.5/Davis/Millender (+462) .5u
R. Sanchez/Neal -3.5/Gordon (+690) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+160) 1.25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+419) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1206) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Morono/Poirier (+143) 1.5u
Cerrone/Poirier (+179) 2u

[ken10]

Call me crazy but I like Josh Burkman against Morono.

[JIBBBY]

Call me crazy but I like Josh Burkman against Morono.

I give him a shot. He'll fight hard. He's a tough guy.. He could be washed up though.. Morono isn't anything super special either...

I hedged it out but the odds are fat with Burkman ITD...

$50.00

$469.00

Pending

2/18/18 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2005 Burkman wins inside distance +938* vs Not Burkman inside distance

[Hugo de Naranja]

Call me crazy but I like Josh Burkman against Morono.

You're crazy

[JIBBBY]

You're crazy

His UFC career is on the line.. Burkman REALLY needs this win or he will be sent packing after.. Just saying... Age 37 and got dropped in his last fight, loser of 4 straight, he probably does get lit up by Morono.. However, I'm not so sure Morono is better then any of the 4 fighters that recently lit up Burkman..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joshua-Burkman-10003

Morono ain't no world beater that's for sure..

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Joshua
Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
vs
Alex
Morono
"The Great White"

UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES

29-16-0, 1NC
Record
13-4-0, 1NC

31%
KO/TKO
31%

28%
SUB
38%

41%
DEC
31%

70 in
Height
71 in

170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs

72 in
Reach
72 in

39 in
Leg Reach
39 in

Significant Strikes

2.7
Landed per minute
4.31

43.75%
Accuracy
41.95%

3.13
Absorbed P/M
2.82

51.77%
Defense
64.12%

[Shagdogy]

Fight Night 126 Picks
Piechota TKO
Morono dec
Pudilova dec
Joby Sanchez dec
Neal TKO
Gordon dec
Gouti sub
Davis TKO
Alves dec
Vick TKO
Lewis dec
Cerrone dec

[Shagdogy]

Fight Night 126 Bets:

Joby Sanchez -123, 1.23u
Gordon -225, 4.5u
Cerrone -101, 1.01u

Neal/Piechota parlay, +101, 1u
Alves/Pudilova/Piechota parlay, +271, .75u

Vick/Trinaldo Fight won't go the distance, -105, 1.05u

Can't say I've done my best capping for this event. Fingers crossed I can hit a little more than I miss. Gonna need Jared Gordon big time. Not sure about the line movement there.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fight Night 126 Bets:

Joby Sanchez -123, 1.23u
Gordon -225, 4.5u
Cerrone -101, 1.01u

Neal/Piechota parlay, +101, 1u
Alves/Pudilova/Piechota parlay, +271, .75u

Vick/Trinaldo Fight won't go the distance, -105, 1.05u

Can't say I've done my best capping for this event. Fingers crossed I can hit a little more than I miss. Gonna need Jared Gordon big time. Not sure about the line movement there.

I'm with you on a lot of these. Really like Gordon -3.5 at (+160) as well.

[TPowell]

Wow just got back to a computer for first time in over 24 hours. Gordon ML down to -170?

[TPowell]

Gordon ML/Moras NOT by DEC pays +117 (just played this)

[Shagdogy]

Wow just got back to a computer for first time in over 24 hours. Gordon ML down to -170?

It's nuts. I have no idea why the line movement. I really had Gordon favored heavily and I've read nothing to suggest he's not 100% here.

[Shagdogy]

I'm with you on a lot of these. Really like Gordon -3.5 at (+160) as well.

Not a coincidence my friend. Since I couldn't really cap as fully as I'd like for these I took some of my leans and looked around to see what other guys I trust were playing those bets, you being one of them. Helped me pull the trigger on Cerrone and Vick/Trinaldo won't go decision.

[TPowell]

It's nuts. I have no idea why the line movement. I really had Gordon favored heavily and I've read nothing to suggest he's not 100% here.

I'm going to play Gordon -3.5 at plus money as well. I get Gordon is moving up and Diego WAS a pretty solid fight but coming back off a PED bust against a guy like Gordon is a bad idea

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not a coincidence my friend. Since I couldn't really cap as fully as I'd like for these I took some of my leans and looked around to see what other guys I trust were playing those bets, you being one of them. Helped me pull the trigger on Cerrone and Vick/Trinaldo won't go decision.

[TPowell]

UFC Fight Night 126, Austin, Texas, 18th Feb '18

Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Unit Bet
Marcin Tybura	Derrick Lewis	-120	1

Props and Parlays			Unit Bet
Fight Pick Odds Pr Sarah Moras vs Lucie Pudilova Fight goes to decision -260			5
Fight Pick Odds Pr Derrick Lewis vs Marcin Tybura Fight goes to decision +115			0.5
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Sarah Moras vs Lucie Pudilova Moras wins by submission +549			0.5
Fight Pick Odds Pr Sarah Moras vs Lucie Pudilova NOT Moras wins by decision -261 Pi Jared Gordon vs Carlos Diego Ferreira Gordon to win -175 Parlay Odds: +117			0.75
Fight Pick Odds PrPi Jared Gordon vs Carlos Diego Ferreira Gordon points handicap -3.5 +160			0.5

[TPowell]

Full page http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

[Shagdogy]

I'm going to play Gordon -3.5 at plus money as well. I get Gordon is moving up and Diego WAS a pretty solid fight but coming back off a PED bust against a guy like Gordon is a bad idea

Gordon fought his last fight at LW. And I agree about the PED bust and long layoff being a killer against a guy who pushes a pace like Gordon, but honestly I would have favored him pretty solidly without all of that, just looking at CDF's most recent fights. I just don't see how CDF stops the pressure of Gordon unless he's able to get him down and control him on the mat, but we really haven't seen that done and CDF really lacks a great takedown ability. He may prove us all wrong. I sure wish I got my 4.5 units on -170 instead of -225, but oh well, i just need it to win.

[TPowell]

Added some more on Gordon

Gordon R3 (+1325)

Gordon ML/Gouti FNGTD (+138)

[TPowell]

Gordon fought his last fight at LW. And I agree about the PED bust and long layoff being a killer against a guy who pushes a pace like Gordon, but honestly I would have favored him pretty solidly without all of that, just looking at CDF's most recent fights. I just don't see how CDF stops the pressure of Gordon unless he's able to get him down and control him on the mat, but we really haven't seen that done and CDF really lacks a great takedown ability. He may prove us all wrong. I sure wish I got my 4.5 units on -170 instead of -225, but oh well, i just need it to win.

I'm with you. I thought the line was a little much at bordering on -300 but -175 is solid for parlay value and IF Gordon does win, he BREAKS CDF and wins a lopsided decision or finishes him (gets at least a 10-8 round somewhere)

[Shagdogy]

I'm with you. I thought the line was a little much at bordering on -300 but -175 is solid for parlay value and IF Gordon does win, he BREAKS CDF and wins a lopsided decision or finishes him (gets at least a 10-8 round somewhere)

Yup. This is why Gordon round 3 is an excellent play. I don't have that prop right now unfortunately.

[TPowell]

Yup. This is why Gordon round 3 is an excellent play. I don't have that prop right now unfortunately.

I have around 0.15 units on it now. I typically try to keep those type of plays under 0.25 units at least but its tempting not to add more on that price.

[Thrilla]

Piechota O. - Williams T.

Over 1.5 -152

Williams ML +275 Why? Because it got bet up for no reason worth mentioning.

[JC2008]

Boom!

[Thrilla]

Burkman and over next

[ken10]

Pie was an easy one but juice was too high !