UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros (February 18, 2018)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep probably goes one way or the other Hugo. A Northcut decision or KO blows it up though..

Northcut is not a decision fighter though yet, to young still as he usually either finishes in dominating fashion and or gets broken mentally and gives up the neck for a choke out loss..

Gouti is also not that hard to finish.

[HurlSweatPants]

Cowboy line is crashing like crypto.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cowboy line is crashing like crypto.

Good time to buy

[HurlSweatPants]

Good time to buy

Yeah I just posted this in another thread, if you are on Tybura or Cowboy now might be the time to pull the trigger, although Lewis might end up being the favorite by the time the fight starts.

[JIBBBY]

Not sure why the Cowboy line is dropping? I hit it already at -160 thinking it would go up come fight time.. SOB!!!! I may have to hit it again. I already loaded up though.. Cowboy is better standing and on the ground, I don't understand this line movement at all?

Even odds now.. WOW...

UFC Fight Night 126 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1
Sun 2/18		1001 Yancy Medeiros		-110	o2½ +105
11:30PM		1002 Donald Cerrone		-110	u2½ -125

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yancy has struggled against all the top shelf fighters he's fought. I think Cerrone dominates him here. From a skill perspective he's better everywhere. I think Medeiros will need a KO/TKO to win and in my opinion he is not a big one punch threat. Let's go Cowboy!

[JIBBBY]

Yancy has struggled against all the top shelf fighters he's fought. I think Cerrone dominates him here. From a skill perspective he's better everywhere. I think Medeiros will need a KO/TKO to win and in my opinion he is not a big one punch threat. Let's go Cowboy!

Yancy has a better chin then Cowboy and a stronger gut when taking shots. Those are the only advantages I see going in for Yancy..

Cowboy by decision or Sub is my best guess.. Since I couldn't decide which I just took him straight and paid the price.. Kicking myself now as the line dropped to even odds.. I should have waited like I normally do to place..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yancy has a better chin then Cowboy and a stronger gut when taking shots. Those are the only advantages I see going in for Yancy..

Cowboy by decision or Sub is my best guess.. Since I couldn't decide which I just took him straight and paid the price.. Kicking myself now as the line dropped to even odds.. I should have waited like I normally do to place..

Even chin is questionable. Medeiros is tough to finish but he gets rocked soooo much. Skill wise, Cerrone is far superior.

[turbozed]

Yancy has struggled against all the top shelf fighters he's fought. I think Cerrone dominates him here. From a skill perspective he's better everywhere. I think Medeiros will need a KO/TKO to win and in my opinion he is not a big one punch threat. Let's go Cowboy!

I'm with you on Cerrone here. Yancy outlasted Brazilian Cowboy but was at a big skill disadvantage almost everywhere. This despite having his nose broken early in the fight. I still have no idea what happened to Brazilian Cowboy at the end of the fight but I think Cerrone has enough in him not to hit the same wall.

If Cerrone fights as balanced and controlled as he did against Lawler, I don't see him losing exchanges and/or gassing against Yancy.

[JC2008]

I'm with you on Cerrone here. Yancy outlasted Brazilian Cowboy but was at a big skill disadvantage almost everywhere. This despite having his nose broken early in the fight. I still have no idea what happened to Brazilian Cowboy at the end of the fight but I think Cerrone has enough in him not to hit the same wall.

If Cerrone fights as balanced and controlled as he did against Lawler, I don't see him losing exchanges and/or gassing against Yancy.

Cowboy rebound FTW!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm with you on Cerrone here. Yancy outlasted Brazilian Cowboy but was at a big skill disadvantage almost everywhere. This despite having his nose broken early in the fight. I still have no idea what happened to Brazilian Cowboy at the end of the fight but I think Cerrone has enough in him not to hit the same wall.

If Cerrone fights as balanced and controlled as he did against Lawler, I don't see him losing exchanges and/or gassing against Yancy.

Let's keep our good consensus bets results going Turbo.

[JIBBBY]

Cowboy rebound FTW!

JC knows his boxing fellas. He called this draw and I tailed for $2.. No lie... RSPK!!!

Wish I put a $20 spot on it rather then just $2.... JC is the man in boxing..

$2.00

$50.00

Win

2/17/18 9:00pm Boxing Props Fighting 513 Ortiz / Alexander draw +2500* vs Fight not a draw

[Hugo de Naranja]

JC knows his boxing fellas. He called this draw and I tailed for $2.. No lie... RSPK!!!

Wish I put a $20 spot on it rather then just $2.... JC is the man in boxing..

$2.00

$50.00

Win

2/17/18 9:00pm Boxing Props Fighting 513 Ortiz / Alexander draw +2500* vs Fight not a draw

Great job JC!

[JIBBBY]

Boxing showtime...

I'm trying Danny Garcia ITD in this main event..

[Aye J Mac]

Not sure why the Cowboy line is dropping? I hit it already at -160 thinking it would go up come fight time.. SOB!!!! I may have to hit it again. I already loaded up though.. Cowboy is better standing and on the ground, I don't understand this line movement at all?

Even odds now.. WOW...

UFC Fight Night 126 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Frank Erwin Center - Austin, Texas - FS1
Sun 2/18		1001 Yancy Medeiros		-110	o2½ +105
11:30PM		1002 Donald Cerrone		-110	u2½ -125

Bad sign to bet on cowboy. Line movement saying to bet on yancy

[JIBBBY]

Cowboy looks jacked up at weigh ins.. Going with the Cowboy.. Cowboy hasn't been the same since he got dropped but this is a perfect fight for him to turn it around... He needs this win badly too..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bad sign to bet on cowboy. Line movement saying to bet on yancy

Lol what

[JIBBBY]

Boxing showtime...

I'm trying Danny Garcia ITD in this main event..

Cash it..

[JC2008]

Great job JC!

Thanks but Jibbby is being too nice with this one... I advised him over the last 2 weeks to consider Devon Alexander @ -334 as parlay material -- or by a decision win @ +125; with a minor sprinkle on the draw since both fighters are southpaws and an accidental clash of heads is always possible before the end of the 4th round. Devon clearly won the fight but Ortiz does have name value with his acting career bullshit so no surprise here; not to mention the many questionable boxing decisions over the last half-decade.

- And Garcia just destroyed Rios in the 9th round. Had Garcia KO/TKO/DQ -125 and rounds 7-9 and 10-12 hedged with various parlays including Callum Smith next weekend. If people want me to start a Boxing thread I will but I also do not want to bombard this thread with Boxing so let's go! UFC style! Spiced Rum Sunday!

[Slevin07]

Weird movement on cowboy fight. Got small parlay bet previously but glad to get one unit bet on him with these odds. Tough to not add a lot more but hoping he isn't injured or anything. Maybe another unit tomorrow.

[Unwritten Law]

Yancy is now the slight favorite at -115 and Cowboy is at -105 via BM.

[JC2008]

Weird movement on cowboy fight. Got small parlay bet previously but glad to get one unit bet on him with these odds. Tough to not add a lot more but hoping he isn't injured or anything. Maybe another unit tomorrow.

When there's THAT much movement it makes me feel even more comfortable about Cerrone.

[JIBBBY]

Well if Yancy is to win it's probably gonna be by KO.. Cowboys chin has been touched up lately... I don't think it happens though.. Cowboys only 34 years old and I can't believe his chin is completely shot just yet..

Yancy's last 2 wins have come by KO though.. That's why I think Cowboy may shoot and try to take down Yancy, win it by sub or decision..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yancy-Medeiros-27738

Here is the Yancy KO prop anyways... Odds are a little stiff on this too..

1037 Medeiros wins by TKO/KO

+185

[Shutup]

Trinaldo over Vick. Good price as a dog. Vick isn't that good

[Slevin07]

When there's THAT much movement it makes me feel even more comfortable about Cerrone.

Why does it make you more confident?

I'll be more confident if the line jumps back the other way closer to the fight. Like Blaydes did.

[Richard Clock]

Haven't seen much of Gouti (tried watching him on Fight Pass last night, but my app kept crashing), but at what point do you start considering him on 5D? Currently at +275 there. I guess I am a little suspicious of laying 3 to 1 odds on Northcutt here when doesn't have a win against even a mid-tier UFC opponent.

[JC2008]

Why does it make you more confident?

I'll be more confident if the line jumps back the other way closer to the fight. Like Blaydes did.

We'll see what happens. I'm just going off of fights in the past when this has occurred.

[Richard Clock]

We'll see what happens. I'm just going off of fights in the past when this has occurred.

See also Yoel's line. Opened at -190 and moved to dog odds by the day of the fight. In that case, there was the issue of the weight cut and a potential injury, but I haven't heard anything RE: Cerrone yet.

[Shagdogy]

Haven't seen much of Gouti (tried watching him on Fight Pass last night, but my app kept crashing), but at what point do you start considering him on 5D? Currently at +275 there. I guess I am a little suspicious of laying 3 to 1 odds on Northcutt here when doesn't have a win against even a mid-tier UFC opponent.

I don't think Gouti is quite as bad as his record looks. But I'm also not impressed with either guy. Can't pay that much for Northcutt IMO, but do I want to bet on Gouti? Nah. I'll pass.

[Thor4140]

Cowboy looks jacked up at weigh ins.. Going with the Cowboy.. Cowboy hasn't been the same since he got dropped but this is a perfect fight for him to turn it around... He needs this win badly too..

Stunning Cowboy can find another 15 lbs to take off of that frame

[JIBBBY]

My picks... GL everyone..



1) Piechota by sub
2) Morono ITD/ hedged Burkman ITD
3) Pudilova by dec. (small)
4) Roberto by sub
5) Neal by KO/hedged Camozzi by sub
6) Gordan by Dec/ hedged Ferreira ITD
7) Northcut by Sub and ITD/ hedged Gouti by sub
8) Davis by Dec (small)
9) Millender straight
10) Trinaldo straight and by Dec
11) Tybura ITD/ hedged Beast KO
12) Cowboy straight (large)

[Hugo de Naranja]

My picks... GL everyone..



1) Piechota by sub
2) Morono ITD/ hedged Burkman ITD
3) Pudilova by dec. (small)
4) Roberto by sub
5) Neal by KO/hedged Camozzi by sub
6) Gordan by Dec/ hedged Ferreira ITD
7) Northcut by Sub and ITD/ hedged Gouti by sub
8) Davis by Dec (small)
9) Millender straight
10) Trinaldo straight and by Dec
11) Tybura ITD/ hedged Beast KO
12) Cowboy straight (large)

How deep did you end up going on Cowboy?

[Shagdogy]

Let's keep our good consensus bets results going Turbo.

Gonna tail you guys on this play, but no thanks to any of my own analysis. Haven't had the time.

I'm heavy on Gordon, small on Joby, and then have small parlays with Neal, Piechota, Pudilova, Alves. Will post the plays later.

[JIBBBY]

How deep did you end up going on Cowboy?

I blew it going in early at these odds .. Horrible placement timing.. I didn't go in for more either at the current odds..

Also have Cowboy by sub for small and forgot to mention it.. These Cowboy bets I placed over a week ago unfortunately....

I'm embarrassed to even post this up now...

$500.00

$312.50

Pending

2/18/18 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Donald Cerrone -160* vs Yancy Medeiros

$50.00

$225.00

Pending

2/18/18 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1039 Cerrone wins by submission +450* vs Any other result

[Slevin07]

Got 4 units on Cerrone. And another half unit on two small parlays.

Toronto Maple Leafs for 2 units in hockey.

Probably done for the night.