UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura | November 18, 2017 (Sydney, Australia)

[JIBBBY]

Finally done capping this entire event.. Wheeeew!!!! That was work... I hope it pays off this time around..

[Shagdogy]

This will be Jake's first fight in the UFC at 170 but looking at him in weigh-ins, he looks to be the bigger guy between himself and Bojan. At his age, Matthews was always going to have to go up a division eventually. He is incredibly thick at 5'9 and very powerful. He struggled with Holbrook's physicality in his last fight but I think him not being 100% had a lot to do with that, as well as Holbrook being a big LW that is a solid grinder. With Bojan, he doesn't have much to offer wrestling wise. He doesn't defend take-downs well at all and his TD's are pretty easily stopped. I also don't think the UFC sends anyone over to Australia that they think has a good chance at delivering Jake's 3rd loss in a row. The guy is still a big draw for Australia cards and 3 straight losses is close to the hammer. When you look at Jake's losses outside of Holbrook, it was to Lee who big brothered him in the wrestling/strength department and to Vick who he lit up on the feet for a few minutes before eating some shots in the clinch and getting guillotined by the super long Vick. None of these are ways that Bojan can beat him though IMO. I think people will be surprised with the striking as well. His striking really hasn't cost him any fights in the UFC despite being better known for his wrestling.

It's pretty clear he wasn't 100% vs Holbrook. His mobility was bad. He didn't move well at all, and it seemed like he wanted to be outside and land the longer strikes. I've noticed that Velickovic doesn't use his reach well and falls short on a lot of his strikes from range. His best strike from range is his inside leg kick to an orthodox stance fighter. That will be available here.

If you think Matthews definitely wins the wrestling, then I would say don't hesitate. I think if his mobility is back, Matthews will carry an edge in the striking exchanges which will prob be pretty ugly.

[Shagdogy]

I hit Camacho at the opener but after watching tape, not so confident there was value there. This fight seems like a coinflip to me. I was surprised that the over/under was set at 2.5 rounds and not 1.5. Both guys have power and neither guy backs down from an exchange so I think the under might be a better play. Camacho may get the knock out early, but if he fades, then Matthews is gritty enough to get a finish in the 2nd or 3rd.

After eating all of Jingliang's punches in a 3 round fight that he was up a weight class and coming off a fight about 1month prior, you think Camacho could be put out by Brown here?

Other than his fight with Arzamendia, Brown hasn't looked to have all that much power. Also he's the one who was dropped by a single stiff cross by Tuck and put out by Pinchel. I think the power and the chin is pretty clearly in Camacho's advantage. I do worry a little bit that the weight cut has a negative affect on Camacho. You'd think he would have better cardio at 155 and his chin would hold up better but I'm not sure that's the case, especially now that he looked a little rough at weigh ins. I have reservations, but all because of assumptions I'm making. If recent events hold true and Camacho's power and chin are in tact, I think he holds clear edges here. I do think Brown lands in the pocket with some flurries but I don't know if he can do that for a whole fight before Camacho hurts him.

[Shagdogy]

Tuivasa vs Coulter:

I think a decent way to play this would be to parlay Tuivasa with the under at +150 or better. That gets you better value than Tuivasa round 1. I think Tuivasa likely gets it done here on power alone, but I'm not sure he can fight outside of round 1. A hedge on Coulter TKO at +230 compliments that well. I don't think he wins a decision because he has good power himself, and I don't think Tuivasa could make it to the bell in a 3 round fight.

[turbozed]

After eating all of Jingliang's punches in a 3 round fight that he was up a weight class and coming off a fight about 1month prior, you think Camacho could be put out by Brown here?

Other than his fight with Arzamendia, Brown hasn't looked to have all that much power. Also he's the one who was dropped by a single stiff cross by Tuck and put out by Pinchel. I think the power and the chin is pretty clearly in Camacho's advantage. I do worry a little bit that the weight cut has a negative affect on Camacho. You'd think he would have better cardio at 155 and his chin would hold up better but I'm not sure that's the case, especially now that he looked a little rough at weigh ins. I have reservations, but all because of assumptions I'm making. If recent events hold true and Camacho's power and chin are in tact, I think he holds clear edges here. I do think Brown lands in the pocket with some flurries but I don't know if he can do that for a whole fight before Camacho hurts him.

Yes. Li was having fun picking Camacho apart. But Camacho was dead tired come the third round. If Li tried a body lock and got mount like the Korean guy in a recent fight, Camacho would've eaten punches helplessly and probably would get stopped. Watching the fight again, I think Li went a bit easy on Camacho in the third. He would hurt Camacho and then back off and repeat the process. Maybe he was still wary of the power, but I'm thinking that wasn't the only reason.

I don't think Brown can 1 punch KO Camacho. But getting him in a bad spot while Camacho is dead tired and landing a ton of unanswered blows might force a stoppage. Also, cutting a lot of weight makes your chin worse not better.

[Shagdogy]

I don't think Brown can 1 punch KO Camacho. But getting him in a bad spot while Camacho is dead tired and landing a ton of unanswered blows might force a stoppage. Also, cutting a lot of weight makes your chin worse not better.

1. Camacho's TDD in round 2 was solid, even though he clearly looked tired.

2. If Camacho can defend deep singles and body lock TDs when he's gassed vs Jingliang, can Brown take him down? I haven't seen much of a TD game from Brown.

3. I was hoping the cut wouldn't be bad and not really take much out of him. I do have some concern about his chin and cardio now.

Maybe laying off is the right move. It's annoying because I was def on Camacho if he looked healthy and fresh at weigh ins.

[Shagdogy]

I have a small play on Weiczorek but he looked like a light heavyweight at weigh ins. Much smaller than Hamilton. Now I worry about the smother game.

The weigh ins for this card really planted a lot of doubts. Very annoying.

[BIGDAY]

Not crazy for this fight card.

But ill more than likely find a few beers in the bar fridge, then a few spots might look better for me.

Cash those bets today fellas!

[turbozed]

1. Camacho's TDD in round 2 was solid, even though he clearly looked tired.

2. If Camacho can defend deep singles and body lock TDs when he's gassed vs Jingliang, can Brown take him down? I haven't seen much of a TD game from Brown.

3. I was hoping the cut wouldn't be bad and not really take much out of him. I do have some concern about his chin and cardio now.

Maybe laying off is the right move. It's annoying because I was def on Camacho if he looked healthy and fresh at weigh ins.

I don't recall Li going for any takedowns in the 2nd and 3rd. I definitely don't think he attempted any in the 3rd. I think it'd be more accurate to take a look at his recent fights in the Pacific Island regionals. Li was pretty content to just pick Frank apart and I think that was the reason we saw the fight that we did. Frank has been fighting for over a decade and I don't expect him to just gain impenetrable TD defense overnight, especially if he tires.

It's hard to know how drained Frank really is. A lot of fighters seemed to miss weight with this format. It's good that Frank missed by 4 lbs and didn't try using those 2 hours to cut that extra weight.

It's hard to gauge how much stock to put in these missed weight scenarios. Last week, Lopez missed weight by like 3 lbs. Sure he got completely blasted by Assuncao but it didn't look like his cardio suffered. McGregor always looked like death on the scales at 145 but always performed. On the extreme end of bad weight cuts you have Kevin Lee who had to take that extra hour to make championship weight and had staph but was able to fight hard for a couple of rounds. Usually I don't worry too much unless it's an extraordinary scenario like Kevin Lee.

If I had to choose a side it'd definitely be Camacho. But I think the odds were set pretty well at around even. If it's a coinflip, then I'd want + odds.

[turbozed]

I have a small play on Weiczorek but he looked like a light heavyweight at weigh ins. Much smaller than Hamilton. Now I worry about the smother game.

The weigh ins for this card really planted a lot of doubts. Very annoying.

Hamilton's size didn't help him against Fortuna, who weighed in at only 210 lbs for that fight. I remember thinking Hamilton for all his faults would still be a lock against a middleweight BJJ guy making his short notice UFC debut. Lost a pretty big bet on that fight.

[Shagdogy]

I don't recall Li going for any takedowns in the 2nd and 3rd. I definitely don't think he attempted any in the 3rd. I think it'd be more accurate to take a look at his recent fights in the Pacific Island regionals. Li was pretty content to just pick Frank apart and I think that was the reason we saw the fight that we did. Frank has been fighting for over a decade and I don't expect him to just gain impenetrable TD defense overnight, especially if he tires.

Jingliang had a deep single in round 2 that Camacho defended and even found the energy to throw a jumping knee with the free leg. I believe he also had a body lock that he couldn't convert in round 2 as well that he mostly tried to muscle.

I couldn't lay off Camacho. I'm trying to be objective. He has the reach advantage, and IMO the power, chin, and ability to dictate position advantages as well. That's too much for me to layoff, though I would not be at all surprised if Brown's cardio carries him to a win by getting ahead in rounds 2 and 3 with more strikes landed. If his hand speed is on point, maybe all 3 rounds. I only played Camacho for 1u and it wasn't a confidently placed wager.

[Shagdogy]

My irrational disdain for Theodorou prevents me from betting on any of his fights recently because I don't want to go and watch tape of him.

I feel the same as you here. Didn't cap this fight at all.

[TPowell]

Hamilton's size didn't help him against Fortuna, who weighed in at only 210 lbs for that fight. I remember thinking Hamilton for all his faults would still be a lock against a middleweight BJJ guy making his short notice UFC debut. Lost a pretty big bet on that fight.

Same here. Huge bet with Fortuna by sub as my hedge. Thought it was gold. I actually think quicker guys give him more trouble.

[Shagdogy]

Hamilton's size didn't help him against Fortuna, who weighed in at only 210 lbs for that fight. I remember thinking Hamilton for all his faults would still be a lock against a middleweight BJJ guy making his short notice UFC debut. Lost a pretty big bet on that fight.

True. But Weic doesn't move like Fortuna and he gets his back put to the cage often. I'm fading Hamilton here but Weic is going to have to find a little more urgency than I've seen in his past couple. Either way the younger, rangier guy with a stronger chin is always carrying at least a small edge. I'm gonna ride this out but again, this bet like most of my others on this card is not high confidence. Not gonna find me getting cocky on this card. I'll take anything I can get here.

[TPowell]

Hmm Matthews -3.5 (+170) or Matthews by decision at +172? I think this fight GTD for sure so +172 sounds better but then again, I get the Matthews finish as a win with the -3.5 for the same price.

[TPowell]

Finally looking at the main event. In a 5 round fight, Tybura is going to hit the ground with Werdum eventually IMO. Can he survive on the ground with him? Luis Henrique was able to threaten him a couple times with subs including a late guillotine. Tybura's TDD is very solid though. Henrique caught a kick so many times and Tybura wiggled his way out with good balance but against a guy like Werdum who has more experience (less power but smarter), I think he'll find ways to get Tybura down.

[JIBBBY]

Finally looking at the main event. In a 5 round fight, Tybura is going to hit the ground with Werdum eventually IMO. Can he survive on the ground with him? Luis Henrique was able to threaten him a couple times with subs including a late guillotine. Tybura's TDD is very solid though. Henrique caught a kick so many times and Tybura wiggled his way out with good balance but against a guy like Werdum who has more experience (less power but smarter), I think he'll find ways to get Tybura down.

I'm playing it Werdum ITD and Tybura hedge with the KO prop.. I highly doubt this fight goes 5 full rounds..

Werdum is 40 years old now and that chin could be starting to go, while Tybura doesn't have scary KO power he does have a bunch of KO's on his record.. One other thing also to consider is that Werdum has fought into the 5th round only one time and that was with Travis Brown but still got the finish in the 5th.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Fabricio-Werdum-8390


FS1 Main Card



Fabricio
Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
vs
Marcin
Tybura
"Tybur"

BRAZIL
Country
POLAND

21-7-1
Record
16-2-0

27%
KO/TKO
38%

50%
SUB
38%

23%
DEC
25%

76 in
Height
75 in

231 lbs
Weight
249 lbs

77 in
Reach
78 in

45 in
Leg Reach
46 in

[Shagdogy]

I just snaked Hamilton/Weic doesn't go the distance on my book for -115.

Hopped on it for 3u. Do I need to add more? They have fight ends in round 1 as -120 so obv this is a mistake but maybe I can benefit if they don't catch it.

[TPowell]

I just snaked Hamilton/Weic doesn't go the distance on my book for -115.

Hopped on it for 3u. Do I need to add more? They have fight ends in round 1 as -120 so obv this is a mistake but maybe I can benefit if they don't catch it.

That should be -500 or so according to 5D. My guess is it will get refunded though.

[TPowell]

Think I'm done.

Matthews ML (-140)/Brooks ML (-490) at +106 for 2 units
Means ML (-210)/Clark starts R3 (-292) at -102 for 2 units
Benoit ITD (+165) for 1 unit
Matthews -3.5 (+170) for 0.5 units
Matthews by DEC (+172) for 0.5 units
Means NO CARDS (-312)/Wieczorek ML at +115 for 1 unit
Coulter R2 (+725) for 0.1 units
Coulter R3 (+1400) for 0.05 units

[Shagdogy]

That should be -500 or so according to 5D. My guess is it will get refunded though.

Yah. Now I feel like I'm gonna get screwed. If it loses they'll keep it and if it wins they'll void.

[Shagdogy]

Think I'm done.

Matthews ML (-140)/Brooks ML (-490) at +106 for 2 units
Means ML (-210)/Clark starts R3 (-292) at -102 for 2 units
Benoit ITD (+165) for 1 unit
Matthews -3.5 (+170) for 0.5 units
Matthews by DEC (+172) for 0.5 units
Means NO CARDS (-312)/Wieczorek ML at +115 for 1 unit
Coulter R2 (+725) for 0.1 units
Coulter R3 (+1400) for 0.05 units

I was gonna say those Coulter props could cash. I don't think Tuivasa makes it 3 rounds if he doesn't finish early.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tuivasa vs Coulter:

I think a decent way to play this would be to parlay Tuivasa with the under at +150 or better. That gets you better value than Tuivasa round 1. I think Tuivasa likely gets it done here on power alone, but I'm not sure he can fight outside of round 1. A hedge on Coulter TKO at +230 compliments that well. I don't think he wins a decision because he has good power himself, and I don't think Tuivasa could make it to the bell in a 3 round fight.

I don't think that most books let you parlay straights and totals because they are often correlated.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm playing it Werdum ITD and Tybura hedge with the KO prop.. I highly doubt this fight goes 5 full rounds..

Werdum is 40 years old now and that chin could be starting to go, while Tybura doesn't have scary KO power he does have a bunch of KO's on his record.. One other thing also to consider is that Werdum has fought into the 5th round only one time and that was with Travis Brown but still got the finish in the 5th.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Fabricio-Werdum-8390


FS1 Main Card



Fabricio
Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
vs
Marcin
Tybura
"Tybur"

BRAZIL
Country
POLAND

21-7-1
Record
16-2-0

27%
KO/TKO
38%

50%
SUB
38%

23%
DEC
25%

76 in
Height
75 in

231 lbs
Weight
249 lbs

77 in
Reach
78 in

45 in
Leg Reach
46 in

I'm pretty sure Browne made it to decision both times they fought but I'm on board with Werdum ITD here for a pretty big bet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yah. Now I feel like I'm gonna get screwed. If it loses they'll keep it and if it wins they'll void.

I think they have to cancel it one way or another before the bout starts.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Volkanovski catches Young with an Overhand Right that puts him out cold.

[JollyRogerMMA]

If you are betting Mathews I like the prop for +172 DEC IMO

[Shagdogy]

If you are betting Mathews I like the prop for +172 DEC IMO

Velickovic is obviously durable as he showed in his last fight with Till. Hard to imagine Matthews stops him. Problem is, going to a decision doesn't give me a ton of confidence in either fighter here.

[Shagdogy]

I think Volkanovski catches Young with an Overhand Right that puts him out cold.

Even money. Majority of his wins by KO/TKO. He can stop guys with strikes from top position too. He's got good power in his GnP.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura Picks:
Adam Wieczorek Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Eric Shelton Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Nadia Kassem Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Frank Camacho Round 1 KO (Punch)
Tai Tuivasa Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Will Brooks Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Ryan Benoit Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alex Volkanovski Round 1 KO (Punch)
Dan Kelly Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Jake Matthews Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Tim Means Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Bec Rawlings Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Fabricio Werdum Round 2 Submission (Armbar)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Wieczorek vs. Hamilton
Wieczorek+Hamilton Under 1.5 (+120) 1u
Hamilton Round 1 (+425) .5u

Fight #2: Shelton vs. Lausa
Shelton Submission (+510) .5u

Fight #3: Kassem (DEBUT) vs. Chambers
Kassem ITD (+165) .5u
Kassem Round 1 (+355) .5u
Kassem Submission (+1250) .5u

Hedge:
Chambers Submission (+401) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Brown vs. Camacho
Camacho KO/TKO (+210) .5u
Camacho Round 1 (+300) .5u

Fight #5: Tuivasa (DEBUT) vs. Coulter
No Bet

Fight #6: Brooks vs. Lentz
Lentz (+425) 1u
Lentz ITD (+1050) .5u

Hedge:
Brooks Round 3 (+1050) .5u

Fight #7: Benoit vs. Mokhtarian
Benoit ITD (+165) 1u
Benoit KO/TKO (+230) 1u

Hedge:
Mokhtarian Submission (+865) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Volkanovski vs. Young (DEBUT)
Volkanovski KO/TKO (+120) 1u

Fight #9: Kelly vs. Theodorou
Kelly (+160) 2u
Kelly Decision (+390) 1.5u
Kelly ITD (+840) .5u

Hedge:
Theodorou KO/TKO (+590) .5u

Fight #10: Matthews vs. Velickovic
Matthews Submission (+800) 1u

Fight #11: Means vs. Muhammad
Muhammad Submission (+1050) .25u

Fight #12: Rawlings vs. Rose-Clark (DEBUT)
Rose-Clark KO/TKO (+720) .5u

Fight #13: Werdum vs. Tybura
Werdum ITD (+100) 3.1u
Werdum KO/TKO (+450) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Volkanovski/Means+Muhammad Over 1.5 (-114) 2.28u to win 2u
Kassem/Rawlings (+175) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Camacho+Brown WGD/Volkanovski -3.5 (+102) 2u
Rawlings/Means+Muhammad GD/Werdum ITD (+496) .25u
Wieczorek/Shelton Decision/Kassem -3.5 (+538) .25u
Volkanovski+Young WGD/Kelly/Matthews (+824) .25u
Camacho+Brown WSR3/Tuivasa ITD/Brooks Decision/Benoit -3.5(+825) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+310) 1u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+808) .5u
Camacho+Brown FOTN (+500) .5u
No Fights End in Submission (+795) .5u
Matthews+Velickovic FOTN (+800) .5u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Strickland+McGee Over 2.5/Wieczorek (+150) 2u

[JIBBBY]

I'm pretty sure Browne made it to decision both times they fought but I'm on board with Werdum ITD here for a pretty big bet.

I double checked and you're correct Hugo.. Werdum did make it decision both times with Browne, last fight was only a 3 rounder but the 1st was a 5 rounder..

So Werdum did go all 5 rounds just once in his entire career..

Tybura has never fought past 3 rounds..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I double checked and you're correct Hugo.. Werdum did make it decision both times with Browne, last fight was only a 3 rounder but the 1st was a 5 rounder..

So Werdum did go all 5 rounds just once in his entire career..

Tybura has never fought past 3 rounds..

Tybura's cardio has looked bad in some of his fights too, especially the Arlovski bout. He is also pretty easy to hold up against the cage and grind on.

[JIBBBY]

Trying to put small prop parlays together now.. Just reminding you guys as I just remembered.. Better then buying lotto scratchers that's for sure.. Hit one good one and you break the books.

[UncleChael]

There were So many stupids memes thinking rose was gonna get destroyed by the killer lol. Where are they now? Good luck tonight boys! Show is always good. ��