Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series: Week 3

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 07:37 PM

Just plain wrong about Gomez. Damn. Haven't been that off with a bet in a while. He was never in it.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 07:40 PM

Let's go Menifield!

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 07:43 PM

Menifield or this night goes way south for me.

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 07:49 PM

Ige hits for me. Got a bad line at -120 but at least it was the right side.

Sitting out on Menifield. Almost bet him at -210 but woke up and it was back to -350 so pass. Think he gets a KO here in the 2nd round.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 07:52 PM

Jolly with the quit

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 07:53 PM

Sitting out the next. Only bet left is Stewart

**Demonata** · 07-25-17, 07:56 PM

Jolly is a pussy bitch

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by Demonata

Jolly is a pussy bitch

Sure is. With that Urkle voice

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 08:00 PM

Hoping for under 1.5 rounds here in Neal/Waldon. Lezgooo

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:01 PM

Jolly definitely quit. Anyone catch his face when the ref told him it was a TKO loss. You could see him thinking "oh damn I thought I'd get a NC."

**Demonata** · 07-25-17, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Sure is. With that Urkle voice

I can't see nothing but my eye can focus like it sees fine and can walk fine but can't see nothing.

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 08:04 PM

Alright 2-0 so far

Need Stewart now for a good event. Might put some down on Spann for main event.

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:06 PM

Damn. Knew I didn't like Waldon. Wish Neal wasn't a late replacement I prob woulda been on him.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:19 PM

Back-and-forth first round

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 08:20 PM

Think Stewart might've taken that 1st round right at the end. Knockdown and better gnp

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:21 PM

Weird end to a good fight but Stewart gets the win!

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 08:22 PM

LOL penetrating Snoop. Lost the fight by the joint mon!

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 08:24 PM

3-0. Gonna go for a degen half unit on Spann to let it ride a bit.

Edit: Actually nevermind. Going to have some discipline here...

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

LOL penetrating Snoop. Lost the fight by the joint mon!

LOL that's good. Weird fight finish. Bad IQ from Stewart to not only throw zero follow up strikes on the knockdown but somehow manage to get his back taken.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

3-0. Gonna go for a degen half unit on Spann to let it ride a bit.

Edit: Actually nevermind. Going to have some discipline here...

Yeah I think the line for the Main Event is well set. Slight lean to Spann but could definitely see Roberson winning

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

3-0. Gonna go for a degen half unit on Spann to let it ride a bit.

Edit: Actually nevermind. Going to have some discipline here...

Don't ruin it! I like Roberson but almost no tape to see if he can stop a takedown or do anything on the ground.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

LOL that's good. Weird fight finish. Bad IQ from Stewart to not only throw zero follow up strikes on the knockdown but somehow manage to get his back taken.

"Jamaican spider monkey moves, mon"

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:30 PM

Got a small win on the night. Like Roberson here but no bet. Hoping he shows some TDD and standup skills.

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

LOL penetrating Snoop. Lost the fight by the joint mon!

That's pretty good.

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:36 PM

Wooooow. Damn.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:36 PM

Nice performance from Roberson. He's definitely got the contract. Glad I laid off there. Worth noting that no fights went the distance

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 08:39 PM

Dana asking Roberson to fight MW? Must have an opponent in mind since Roberson took zero damage.

**turbozed** · 07-25-17, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Nice performance from Roberson. He's definitely got the contract. Glad I laid off there. Worth noting that no fights went the distance

Only played one under but you're right. Ige fight went over but DNGTD. I think we talked about last week how a lot of these guys are going to be leaving themselves more open due to the nature of the getting the contract deal. Oddsmakers adjusted a bit by setting most at 1.5 but looks like there might still be value. Something to look for next week for sure.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:51 PM

Dana White’s Contenders Series 3 Picks:
Luis Gomez Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Alonzo Menifield Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Chase Waldon Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kyle Stewart Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Ryan Spann Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 07-25-17, 08:52 PM

Dana White’s Contenders Series 3

Fight #1: Gomez vs. Ige
Parlays

Result: Dan Ige Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Fight #2: Menifield vs. Jolly
Parlays

Result: Alonzo Menifield Round 1 TKO (Eye Injury)

Fight #3: Waldon vs Neal
No Bet

Result: Geoff Neal Round 1 TKO (Punches)

Fight #4: Jackson vs. Stewart
Stewart (+160) +.8u

Result: Kyle Stewart Round 2 TKO (Ankle Injury)
Fight: +.8u
Card: +.8u

Fight #5: Spann vs. Roberson
No Bet

Result: Karl Roberson Round 1 KO (Elbows)

Multi-Event Parlays:
Spohn/Menifield (+106) +1.06u
Spohn/Gomez (+153) -1u

Results: See Above
Fights: +.06u
Final Card Total = +.86u

**Shagdogy** · 07-25-17, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I'm in:
Menifield -220, 4u
Gomez -135, 2.5u
Stewart +140, 1u

I'm undefeated on 4 and 5u bets this year. Pretty confident in Menifield. Not convinced Jolly is dangerous enough. I probably pushed a little to get to 4u on Menifield but my gut agreed with my brain, so here we are.

Card Total: 2-1, +0.79u

YTD: 70-57, +17.69u

Not really sure how those Menifield and Stewart fights were going to go so I feel a bit fortunate to win them both. Went 2-1 on the night with an eye-poke/quit victory and an ankle dislocation victory. The one fight that actually played out I was very wrong about. Ige totally owned Gomez.

I'm still undefeated on my 4 and 5u bets this year. I think 11-0 or 12-0 now. Those are really driving the majority of my profit.

**turbozed** · 07-26-17, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Card Total: 2-1, +0.79u

YTD: 70-57, +17.69u

Not really sure how those Menifield and Stewart fights were going to go so I feel a bit fortunate to win them both. Went 2-1 on the night with an eye-poke/quit victory and an ankle dislocation victory. The one fight that actually played out I was very wrong about. Ige totally owned Gomez.

I'm still undefeated on my 4 and 5u bets this year. I think 11-0 or 12-0 now. Those are really driving the majority of my profit.

Since I've started tracking my bets with a spreadsheet I've noticed a few trends which might help make my betting better.

1. I fare much better after fully handicapping a fight than just partially. Fully capped means I watch at least 3 or 4 fights from each fighter within the past 2 years. Obviously the more that is available the better, and I am more confident when I see fights that go the distance.

2. I have done very well with live betting, 6-0 since I've discovered it last week. Usually these are half unit plays but if the trend continues, I'm going to increase my bet size.

3. I do better on lower level MMA than higher level. This means regional fights, contender series, Invicta, etc. For some reason I can gauge lower level skill better than high level skill. Probably because I somewhat know what to look for in the former and am clueless about the latter.

The numbers don't lie, and seeing them so obviously skewed to certain bets makes me more disciplined in not betting just for the hell of it. I saved myself some cash today on Spann by not firing, for example.

I used to do this when I played College Foots a while back, so I don't know what took me so long to implement it for MMA. Anyway, it's something to consider if you're not doing it.

**Shagdogy** · 07-26-17, 05:02 AM

I'm with you 100% on the lower level bets. I think it's natural. A lot of times the skill discrepancy is much more obvious between two fighters but the line will be closer than it should be because people don't know them. UFC main cards, the word is usually out on those guys and the lines are tight. I do my best on undercard action for sure.

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-26-17, 05:52 AM

3-0 great, job turbozed!

Originally posted by turbozed

3-0. Gonna go for a degen half unit on Spann to let it ride a bit.

Edit: Actually nevermind. Going to have some discipline here...

**Rich Benjamins** · 07-26-17, 05:52 AM

Yep, the lines were off on this one. Roberson dominated. He's with a good camp, training with Weidman and Corey Anderson.