UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt (June 10, 2017)

[PaperTrail07]

Other Randoms:

6/10/17 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1931 Ottow wins by submission +581* vs Any other result

6/10/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1431 Elliott wins by submission +400* vs Any other result 6/10/17 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1831 Moraga wins by submission +318* vs Any other result 6/10/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Lewis wins by TKO/KO +124* vs Any other result

[Shagdogy]

I feel pretty confident about this card too, only because the lines are looking friendly. But I always get a nervous feeling about being too confident..

I like Steele a lot, and Kim, and then Pinchel (small stab there).

The only guy I really like who has an inflated line is Volkanovski. Gotta lay off that juice, but I like the lines on the others. Haven't gotten around to making my opinions for the main card yet. Will do that tonight.

[UncleChael]

Lewis is going to sleep.. ZzzzzzzzZzzzzzz
Good luck, men.

[Sanity Check]

I went very small on Jeon, looks like she has a kickboxing background.

http://www.ufc.com/fighter/chan-mi-jeon

Line is way down on Jeon. :/

Hope no one is tailing me.

I don't have confidence in either of them.

JJ Aldrich is terrible for someone who is supposed to be Thug Rose's sparring partner.

That's all I got to go on.

[turbozed]

I feel pretty confident about this card too, only because the lines are looking friendly. But I always get a nervous feeling about being too confident..

I like Steele a lot, and Kim, and then Pinchel (small stab there).

The only guy I really like who has an inflated line is Volkanovski. Gotta lay off that juice, but I like the lines on the others. Haven't gotten around to making my opinions for the main card yet. Will do that tonight.

Like Steele a lot too. Jumeau's TD defense is abominable. Was easily taken down within 10 seconds by some 1-4 scrub Mansoori in (super) regional fight. He was probably saved from further bullying by constantly falling out of the ropes in that fight. Didn't look like it improved much in the Grujic fight. Jumeau trains out of Phucket Top Team and I don't think they tighten up his game in time to prevent being insta-grounded and pounded out. Big on Steele, small Jumeau Rd1 for a hedge since Steele seems to keep getting flash KO'd with the first punch of the fight.

[Shagdogy]

Like Steele a lot too. Jumeau's TD defense is abominable. Was easily taken down within 10 seconds by some 1-4 scrub Mansoori in (super) regional fight. He was probably saved from further bullying by constantly falling out of the ropes in that fight. Didn't look like it improved much in the Grujic fight. Jumeau trains out of Phucket Top Team and I don't think they tighten up his game in time to prevent being insta-grounded and pounded out. Big on Steele, small Jumeau Rd1 for a hedge since Steele seems to keep getting flash KO'd with the first punch of the fight.

Jumeau's cardio is a question mark just cause I haven't been able to see him go very deep in a tough fight. Do you think the better hedge is Jumeau TKO? What if he's able to stuff takedowns as the fight gets later and then puts Steele away in rd 2 or 3?

[turbozed]

Jumeau's cardio is a question mark just cause I haven't been able to see him go very deep in a tough fight. Do you think the better hedge is Jumeau TKO? What if he's able to stuff takedowns as the fight gets later and then puts Steele away in rd 2 or 3?

If the fight makes it to the second round, unless they just circle each other for 5 mins in the first, I'm guessing there's going to be a lot of time either with Steele on top or both fighters clinching against the cage. Steele pushes a pretty grinding pace for all three rounds, so I'm not sure if Jumeau will have the explosiveness by then to put Steele out in the 2nd and 3rd. Steele has looked pretty durable past the Rd 1 jitters. Jumeau TKO might not be a good hedge later on because there's a good likelihood of a club and sub. In his fight with Mansoori, Jumeau went for a sub to finish the fight.

[turbozed]

Line is way down on Jeon. :/

Hope no one is tailing me.

I don't have confidence in either of them.

JJ Aldrich is terrible for someone who is supposed to be Thug Rose's sparring partner.

That's all I got to go on.

I really like Aldrich still. Jeon didn't look great even against 0-0 opponents and a way-over-the-hill Yabushita. Questionable gas tank already, but now add on the fact that she's a late notice replacement and wasn't able to make weight (could only get down to 118 and forfeited her purse), and it's looking good for Aldrich unless she just completely shits the bed. Am a bit concerned about the line movement though. Apparently people don't think Jeon looks as bad as I do. If there's any advantage she has it's that she can bring a lot of sloppy pressure. There certainly doesn't appear to be much athletic ability there.

[Shagdogy]

If the fight makes it to the second round, unless they just circle each other for 5 mins in the first, I'm guessing there's going to be a lot of time either with Steele on top or both fighters clinching against the cage. Steele pushes a pretty grinding pace for all three rounds, so I'm not sure if Jumeau will have the explosiveness by then to put Steele out in the 2nd and 3rd. Steele has looked pretty durable past the Rd 1 jitters. Jumeau TKO might not be a good hedge later on because there's a good likelihood of a club and sub. In his fight with Mansoori, Jumeau went for a sub to finish the fight.

Steele never been subbed and the only successful ground game I've seen from Jumeau was against opponents who either look lost on the ground or were so gassed (mansoori) they couldn't barely stand up. Not worried about sub.

[turbozed]

Steele never been subbed and the only successful ground game I've seen from Jumeau was against opponents who either look lost on the ground or were so gassed (mansoori) they couldn't barely stand up. Not worried about sub.

I don't think Jumeau has much of a ground game either but I mentioned that a club and sub is possible. When Steele was TKO'd, it was an accumulation TKO and he was still on his feet. I can imagine a hurt Steele shooting a sloppy shot and getting caught in a guillotine, or dropping to his knees and giving up his neck. Think Rd1 Jumeau is a slightly better hedge than by TKO but you might be right.

[Sanity Check]

I really like Aldrich still. Jeon didn't look great even against 0-0 opponents and a way-over-the-hill Yabushita. Questionable gas tank already, but now add on the fact that she's a late notice replacement and wasn't able to make weight (could only get down to 118 and forfeited her purse), and it's looking good for Aldrich unless she just completely shits the bed. Am a bit concerned about the line movement though. Apparently people don't think Jeon looks as bad as I do. If there's any advantage she has it's that she can bring a lot of sloppy pressure. There certainly doesn't appear to be much athletic ability there.

Jeon has 10 wins via knockout in her muay thai career. For a female fighter that's a lot.

If JJ Aldrich has a weakness in her past fights, its being extremely unathletic and not having much physical strength. You can see it in Aldrich's past fights where anyone with a shred of athleticism can take her down and control her on the ground, as if Aldrich were a child.

Aldrich's lack of athleticism could be a bad match up against Jeon who may carry significantly more power in her strikes. I think Jeon is stronger athletically also. The only way Aldrich wins this fight is cardio. Of course the south korean diet is extremely well suited to re-hydraing after cutting weight if Jeon eats a lot of kefirs, etc.

These last few UFC cards have been tough with a lot of new faces and people who haven't fought in 2-3 years. Not expecting much from this card.

[turbozed]

Jeon has 10 wins via knockout in her muay thai career. For a female fighter that's a lot.

If JJ Aldrich has a weakness in her past fights, its being extremely unathletic and not having much physical strength. You can see it in Aldrich's past fights where anyone with a shred of athleticism can take her down and control her on the ground, as if Aldrich were a child.

Aldrich's lack of athleticism could be a bad match up against Jeon who may carry significantly more power in her strikes. I think Jeon is stronger athletically also. The only way Aldrich wins this fight is cardio. Of course the south korean diet is extremely well suited to re-hydraing after cutting weight if Jeon eats a lot of kefirs, etc.

These last few UFC cards have been tough with a lot of new faces and people who haven't fought in 2-3 years. Not expecting much from this card.

Looks like we're seeing things totally different when it comes to Jeon's abilities. I really hope you're wrong. No offense intended, of course.

For this NZ card, the fighters will have another 12 hours more to rehydrate since the weigh ins were earlier than usual. This will probably be good for Jeon and bigger fighters like Dominique Steele, who should be over 190 lbs come fight time.

[Shagdogy]

I don't really wanna pay -300 for Cutelaba, but I'm having trouble seeing Da Silva's route to victory. Cutelaba has an iron chin, good power, and a real big wrestling advantage. He has only been subbed once by Cirkunov but by arm triangle in round 3. I don't see him getting subbed from bottom and Da Silva doesn't have the wrestling or BJJ to get on top of Cutelaba. Totally different game than Cirkunov. I don't see the way for Da Silva to win this fight unless 1) he's the first ever to KO Cutelaba, or 2) he somehow found cardio all of a sudden, when he hasn't had it his whole career. Cutelaba outworks Da Silva in this fight, maybe stops him, but if not should win a clear victory. Anyone disagree?

[Ty$]

I like Hirota by Decision.

[turbozed]

I don't really wanna pay -300 for Cutelaba, but I'm having trouble seeing Da Silva's route to victory. Cutelaba has an iron chin, good power, and a real big wrestling advantage. He has only been subbed once by Cirkunov but by arm triangle in round 3. I don't see him getting subbed from bottom and Da Silva doesn't have the wrestling or BJJ to get on top of Cutelaba. Totally different game than Cirkunov. I don't see the way for Da Silva to win this fight unless 1) he's the first ever to KO Cutelaba, or 2) he somehow found cardio all of a sudden, when he hasn't had it his whole career. Cutelaba outworks Da Silva in this fight, maybe stops him, but if not should win a clear victory. Anyone disagree?

I don't disagree with any of this but three words stop me from touching this one: Light Heavyweight Division. Seems like LHW is some bizzarro division where the rules go out the window and you can get really burned by favorites.

[Shagdogy]

I don't disagree with any of this but three words stop me from touching this one: Light Heavyweight Division. Seems like LHW is some bizzarro division where the rules go out the window and you can get really burned by favorites.

Fair... but I've always said I need to bet what I see, and I see Cutelaba taking this one. I'll proceed with caution but gonna put a little on him. It's the right play IMO. Can't get scared.

[Shagdogy]

I also like Dan Hooker. He has all non-skill advantages: Age, reach, camp, southpaw stance, home turf, careers moving in different directions... Pearson is tough but expecting a decision and I think Hooker -150 is a good price, especially since I'm expecting a standup battle with decision finish.

[Shagdogy]

Hitting the road today, gonna be off the grid for a while... Probably gonna catch these fights on DVR. Good luck everyone!

Cutelaba -303, 3u
Kim -120, 3u
Steele -172, 2.5u
Hooker -150, 2u
Pinchel -110, 1u

Might look at some o/u's on this card if I get the chance. Good luck everyone.

[Ty$]

Not playing favorites today. I like Kelley as the strongest dog on this card and Nguyen being next. Both have real paths to victory wether people want to see it or not. Ben needs to stop tds and land that sweet striking he has. Kelley needs to let Brunson blow his load then take over. $10 both by TKO wins $1100. Also neither guy has lost on Aussie turf

[Shagdogy]

Not playing favorites today. I like Kelley as the strongest dog on this card and Nguyen being next. Both have real paths to victory wether people want to see it or not. Ben needs to stop tds and land that sweet striking he has. Kelley needs to let Brunson blow his load then take over. $10 both by TKO wins $1100. Also neither guy has lost on Aussie turf

I like Ben Nguyen. It would be either him no play. Can't bet Elliott. Nguyen has the tools but he needs to calm down a little bit and fight a good gameplan. I thought the odds didn't really have an edge either way so laid off.

[Sanity Check]

Looks like we're seeing things totally different when it comes to Jeon's abilities. I really hope you're wrong. No offense intended, of course.

For this NZ card, the fighters will have another 12 hours more to rehydrate since the weigh ins were earlier than usual. This will probably be good for Jeon and bigger fighters like Dominique Steele, who should be over 190 lbs come fight time.

Rehydrating won't be that important, although korean fighters have an advantage there due to their diet typically consisting of a lot of fermented vegetables. Vegetarians have advantages with rehydration for reasons I won't go into.

The real question will be whether Jeon's cardio will be fight ready @ 1 week's notice. Missing weight by 2 pounds isn't that bad. But if Jeon were already in training for a fight, she might have made weight which could mean she wasn't training at all.

If someone isn't training, it takes time to build up the cardio to do a 3 round or 5 round fight.

Jeon's wrestling & ground game could also be subpar depending on where she trains and who her sparring partners are. Aldrich isn't that strong physically and her boxing coach is her boyfriend. There's a decent chance she'll want to keep it standing to show off the striking her boyfriend is training her in, kind of like how Ronda tried to become a boxer & rely on her striking to make Edmond look good.

[JIBBBY]

Well I'm not as confident about most of these fights as you fellas are.. Another over seas event.. Travel and time zones changes can effect fighters..

I'm hedging for profit either way mostly with this event.. I see alot of these fights going one way or the other... First 5 fights.. Fortunately the odds are good enough to hedge for profit in every fight so that's a good thing. ..


Fight #1 - Kim ITD and Straight/ hedge Gouti Sub
Fight #2 - Aldrich by Dec/hedge Jeon by KO
Fight #3 - Kid Kunimoto straight/Ottow by Sub
Fight #4 - Moraga by Dec/Mokhtariam ITD
Fight #5 - Steel by Dec/Luke ITD

[JIBBBY]

First fight -

I'm not fading the Asians in this event and I hope that doesn't bite me in the arse!! Going with Kim straight and ITD in the first fight, just don't trust the French fighters... Did hedge Gouti by sub at +855 just because he wins most of his fights by Sub.. Long shot on that hedge though..







Dong Hyun
Kim
"The Maestro"
vs
Thibault
Gouti
"GT"

SOUTH KOREA
Country
FRANCE

14-8-3
Record
11-3-0

43%
KO/TKO
27%

36%
SUB
55%

21%
DEC
18%

71 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

70 in
Reach
72 in

42 in
Leg Reach
41 in

[Shagdogy]

Fortunately the odds are good enough to hedge for profit in every fight so that's a good thing. ..

Unless the unthinkable happens (Steele TKO or Jumeau dec for example). Hope not for your sake. Good luck!

[JIBBBY]

Unless the unthinkable happens (Steele TKO or Jumeau dec for example). Hope not for your sake. Good luck!

Steele is a grinder and I think he will grind his was to a decision.. Steele isn't a huge KO artist..

There is a chance Steele could lose by decision and that blows up my bets.. He really needs this win though after 2 losses.

Dom Steele's last KO was by slam 2 years ago, before that in 2013.. I'm more concerned about Steele getting knocked out himself or flash sub that's why I hedge Luke Jameau ITD at +400 ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dominique-Steele-47845

[Pinoy-T-X]

Parlay on Brunson and Cutelaba 3.5u to win 3u

Hunt 4u to win 5u

JJ Aldrich 3u

BOL gents

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fair... but I've always said I need to bet what I see, and I see Cutelaba taking this one. I'll proceed with caution but gonna put a little on him. It's the right play IMO. Can't get scared.

Don't be scared, homie.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not playing favorites today. I like Kelley as the strongest dog on this card and Nguyen being next. Both have real paths to victory wether people want to see it or not. Ben needs to stop tds and land that sweet striking he has. Kelley needs to let Brunson blow his load then take over. $10 both by TKO wins $1100. Also neither guy has lost on Aussie turf

Hope you hit it!

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 110: Hunt vs. Lewis Picks:
Dong Hyun Kim Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
J.J. Aldrich Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Zak Ottow Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
John Moraga Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Dominique Steele Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Damien Brown Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alexander Volkanovski Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Tim Elliott Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Ion Cutelaba Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Daniel Hooker Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Daniel Kelly Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Derrick Lewis Round 3 KO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 110: Hunt vs. Lewis

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Kim vs. Gouti
Kim (-110) 2.2u to win 2u
Kim Submission (+613) .25u

Fight #2: Aldrich vs. Jeon (DEBUT)
Aldrich -3.5 (+185) .5u
Aldrich KO/TKO (+405) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Ottow vs. Kunimoto
Kunimoto (+255) 1u

Fight #4: Moraga vs. Mokhtarian (DEBUT)
Moraga+Mokhtarian Under 2.5 (+100) 1u
Mokhtarian (+125) 1u
Mokhtarian ITD (+290) .5u

Hedge(s):
Moraga Submission (+530) .5u
Moraga Round 2 (+625) .25u
Moraga Round 3 (+1125) .25u

Fight #5: Jumeau (DEBUT) vs. Steele
Steele -3.5 (+125) 1u
Steele Decision (+150) 1u
Steele Submission (+804) .25u

Fight #6: Brown vs. Pichel
Brown Round 1 (+500) .25u
Brown Submission (+547) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Volkanovski vs. Hirota
Volkanovski ITD (+140) 1u
Volkanovski KO/TKO (+225) .5u

Hedge(s):
Hirota ITD (+974) .25u
Hirota KO/TKO (+2290) .25u

Fight #8: Elliott vs. Nguyen
Elliott+Nguyen Under 2.5 (+175) 1u
Nguyen KO/TKO (+850) .5u

Fight #9: Hooker vs. Pearson
Hooker Decision (+210) 1u

Fight #10: Cutelaba vs. Da Silva
Cutelaba ITD (+120) .5u
Cutelaba Round 1 (+250) .5u
Cutelaba Submission (+745) .25u

Hedge:
Da Silva KO/TKO (+930) .25u

Fight #11: Brunson vs. Kelly
Kelly (+200) 1u
Kelly Decision (+400) 1u
Kelly Scorecards = No Action (+413) 1u
Kelly KO/TKO (+1120) .5u
Kelly Round 3 (+2525) .25u

Hedge(s):
Brunson KO/TKO (+210) 1u
Brunson Round 1 (+250) .5u

Fight #12: Lewis vs. Hunt
Lewis KO/TKO (+159) 2u

Hedge(s):
Hunt Round 1 (+320) 1u
Hunt Round 2 (+615) .5u
Hunt Decision (+805) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Volkanovski/Cutelaba (-103) 1u to win .97u
Elliott/Cutelaba (+100) 1u
Volkanovski/Hooker+Pearson Over 2.5 (+102) 1u
Kim/Volkanovski -3.5 (+123) 2u
Kim/Cutelaba (+127) 1u
Elliott/Hooker+Pearson Over 2.5 (+142) 1u
Hunt+Lewis Won’t Go Distance/Volkanovski -3.5/Hooker+Pearson Over 2.5 (+150) 1u
Steele/Cutelaba/Hooker (+274) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Kim/Aldrich/Kunimoto+Ottow GD (+382) .5u
Moraga+Mokhtarian Under 2.5/Steele -3.5/Brown (+823) .25u
Kelly +3.5/Hooker/Hunt (+843) .25u
Volkanovski KO/Elliott/Cutelaba+Da Silva WGD/(+907) .25u
Hooker Decision/Hunt Decision (+4060) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+154) 1.25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+402) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1154) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Hunt+Lewis Won’t Go Distance/Open (+xxx) 2u

[firekillex]

jesus hugo, how long does it take you to come up with those bets each card you got like 50 going
goodluck on everything but kelly since he will be starched

[JIBBBY]

jesus hugo, how long does it take you to come up with those bets each card you got like 50 going
goodluck on everything but kelly since he will be starched

I hope you are right about Kelly getting starched... Brunson by KO for me...

Always bet on black when on the fence and not sure I always say

FS1 Main Card



Derek
Brunson
vs
Daniel
Kelly

UNITED STATES
Country
AUSTRALIA

16-5-0
Record
13-1-0

56%
KO/TKO
23%

19%
SUB
38%

25%
DEC
31%

73 in
Height
72 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

77 in
Reach
70 in

43 in
Leg Reach
43 in

[Ty$]

Anyone betting on the Belmont?

[the1yankee]

Wtf is up with 5dilly takin down the Kim fight???

[the1yankee]

Gouti v kim cancelled