UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt (June 10, 2017)

[Shagdogy]

Elliot should roll Nguyen IMO....-225 is a steal....win by RNC....Ottow is a beast...should be an easy fight for him....-305 even seems cheap....Fight will finish...

Ottow is a beast? How? Dude looks big and strong but his punches are pitter patter. Nothing but arms... no body behind them. And the worst part is that he seems to feel that's where he's best because he hasn't attempted a single takedown in the UFC. Moraes took him down easily and kept him on his back for an entire round where he sat in closed guard and offered no kind of attack at all. His best strike is a high left leg which would be a gift to Kunimoto if he throws it often because it would give him a chance to catch it. Does he have enough to take out Kunimoto off a two year layoff? Yeah probably, but would I lay 3-1 on him? Not a chance, and definitely not on 3 weeks notice. This dude is just not a very good fighter.

[Shagdogy]

I see some value on Dominique Steele here. Looking back at Jumeau's regional circuit fights shows some pretty poor takedown defense, particularly with double and single leg shots. That's a pretty bad skill to be lacking vs. Steele since he will relentlessly pursue those takedowns. Yes, Steele will have to avoid Jumeau's decent power right hand, but Jumeau's striking attack is so kick heavy that I can't imagine between that and his poor takedown defense he will be able to stay off his back. I have Steele capped around -250 in this fight, so -160-165 is some pretty good value IMO. If you have to hedge, Jumeau by TKO/KO should cover it.

[JIBBBY]

cant support that show, ufc puppets and fire anybody who speaks their mind at all

Really? I find it amusing... Informational at times but not always.. Kenny is decent. DC and Bisbing a bit silly..

[firekillex]

Really? I find it amusing... Informational at times but not always.. Kenny is decent. DC and Bisbing a bit silly..

i like kenny and bisping , but dont like the shady shit theyve done firing some people who speak their minds... UFC likes to control the fighters like employees but doesnt give them employee benefits... just pisses me off how badly they treat fighters
the DJ move put it over the edge for me just blatant disrespect at this point... wouldnt be mad to see Bellator steal every fighter and just be the UFC but under a different orginization thatll actually respect the fighters for what they bring

rant over lol

[JIBBBY]

i like kenny and bisping , but dont like the shady shit theyve done firing some people who speak their minds... UFC likes to control the fighters like employees but doesnt give them employee benefits... just pisses me off how badly they treat fighters
the DJ move put it over the edge for me just blatant disrespect at this point... wouldnt be mad to see Bellator steal every fighter and just be the UFC but under a different orginization thatll actually respect the fighters for what they bring

rant over lol

Gotta remember UFC is a business first.. They are basically a monopoly in the sport for a reason..

[firekillex]

Gotta remember UFC is a business first.. They are basically a monopoly in the sport for a reason..

thats why theyre starting to decline slowly but surely... watch how many fighters keep leaving every year if they keep this up
they need a Union like other sports to give the fighters a fair shake ... without the fighters UFC is just 3 letters that mean jack shit
they have to remember this before they fall , pay the fighters and give them respect they will succeed , lose money short term but stay around and be the top power forever imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

How the penetrate is Kim (-110) against Gouti? I know neither is good but Gouti is TERRIBLE. 0-4 UFC if you include TUF. Finished in all 3 UFC losses.

[firekillex]

How the penetrate is Kim (-110) against Gouti? I know neither is good but Gouti is TERRIBLE. 0-4 UFC if you include TUF. Finished in all 3 UFC losses.

havent watched much of either... most people taking Kim by sub... what you on?

[Shagdogy]

How the penetrate is Kim (-110) against Gouti? I know neither is good but Gouti is TERRIBLE. 0-4 UFC if you include TUF. Finished in all 3 UFC losses.

I don't know. Kim's last fight vs. Brendan O'Reilly was a really good sign because he fought smart and used his judo takedowns and ground game to win pretty easy. His fight with Polo Reyes though has to worry you. It was an incredible fight, but it was nothing but a brawl. If he fights Gouti that way then it's pretty much 50/50 because there's no strategy involved. The way I see it, Kim has an iron chin that ensures he at the very least survives on the feet. He could possibly (probably?) even win there, but we can feel confident he won't get put away. On the ground, Kim holds a large advantage. Can he get it there? From what I've seen Gouti struggles most to defend takedowns with his back against the cage. Kim's strength is in his judo and his best takedowns come from bodylocks in the clinch against the cage, so yes, he really should be able to get takedowns. In top position, he should control Gouti and possibly dismantle him. The only possibility to consider would be Gouti in top position, and I just don't see it happening. He has not attempted a takedown in the UFC and he doesn't have the grappling to sweep Kim and reverse position. Don't see Gouti getting top position in this fight unless he badly hurts Kim on the feet first.

Long story short, this line is FISHY, but it's a tough fight to bet because we don't know Kim's strategy. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he'll build on his success vs. O'Reilly and come in ready to take Gouti down and sub him. If that's his plan, I have him at least -300 fav. BUT, I just can't commit as much to him as I would normally because he's prone to forget strategy and brawl. Because of this, I'm limiting myself to 2u risk on him.

[Shagdogy]

^ Also, the line itself is strange enough that it tells me to be careful. Have to bet on Kim, but can't go huge.

[JC2008]

thats why theyre starting to decline slowly but surely... watch how many fighters keep leaving every year if they keep this up
they need a Union like other sports to give the fighters a fair shake ... without the fighters UFC is just 3 letters that mean jack shit
they have to remember this before they fall , pay the fighters and give them respect they will succeed , lose money short term but stay around and be the top power forever imo

- No... WME purchased the company for a reason... and there will ALWAYS be up and coming fighters who would give their left nut to fight in the organization, regardless of what it is today, or in previous years.

[turbozed]

^ Also, the line itself is strange enough that it tells me to be careful. Have to bet on Kim, but can't go huge.

Huge insta-movement from -160 to -105 on Kim. That sort of shit on a meaningless undercard fight is fishy as penetrate.

[Hugo de Naranja]

havent watched much of either... most people taking Kim by sub... what you on?

Kim, probably by finish.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't know. Kim's last fight vs. Brendan O'Reilly was a really good sign because he fought smart and used his judo takedowns and ground game to win pretty easy. His fight with Polo Reyes though has to worry you. It was an incredible fight, but it was nothing but a brawl. If he fights Gouti that way then it's pretty much 50/50 because there's no strategy involved. The way I see it, Kim has an iron chin that ensures he at the very least survives on the feet. He could possibly (probably?) even win there, but we can feel confident he won't get put away. On the ground, Kim holds a large advantage. Can he get it there? From what I've seen Gouti struggles most to defend takedowns with his back against the cage. Kim's strength is in his judo and his best takedowns come from bodylocks in the clinch against the cage, so yes, he really should be able to get takedowns. In top position, he should control Gouti and possibly dismantle him. The only possibility to consider would be Gouti in top position, and I just don't see it happening. He has not attempted a takedown in the UFC and he doesn't have the grappling to sweep Kim and reverse position. Don't see Gouti getting top position in this fight unless he badly hurts Kim on the feet first.

Long story short, this line is FISHY, but it's a tough fight to bet because we don't know Kim's strategy. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he'll build on his success vs. O'Reilly and come in ready to take Gouti down and sub him. If that's his plan, I have him at least -300 fav. BUT, I just can't commit as much to him as I would normally because he's prone to forget strategy and brawl. Because of this, I'm limiting myself to 2u risk on him.

I think if they brawl he KO's Gouti. Gouti got KO'ed by f'ing Chad Laprise.

[turbozed]

New UFC tonight show covering this card tonight.. Tune in boys...

DC back with the ring on his finger..

UFC Tonight is fake news. They got their boys towing the company line. The interviews are all about hyping up Dillashaw and talking shit about Mighty Mouse. Absurd.

[firekillex]

I think if they brawl he KO's Gouti. Gouti got KO'ed by f'ing Chad Laprise.

i think laprise actually has some solid hands imo... but ill probably take kim ITD small for some fun to watch it

[Hugo de Naranja]

i think laprise actually has some solid hands imo... but ill probably take kim ITD small for some fun to watch it

Laprise is a good point finisher but Gouti is the only guy he's finished since 2012

[turbozed]

Huge insta-movement from -160 to -105 on Kim. That sort of shit on a meaningless undercard fight is fishy as penetrate.

Not a big of a movement as the Tae Hyun Bang who went from a moderate favorite to a heavy underdog (-180 to +300), but you gotta wonder about these Korean fighters and how involved they are with organized crime.

[Shagdogy]

I think if they brawl he KO's Gouti. Gouti got KO'ed by f'ing Chad Laprise.

Kim definitely has the chin advantage but both guys are super hittable. Neither one really bothers with striking defense. I agree Kim still has an advantage but strategy wise I wouldn't wanna see a brawl for my money. If I'm backing Kim I want clinch, body lock, tight top control, guard pass, sub. Easy.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kim definitely has the chin advantage but both guys are super hittable. Neither one really bothers with striking defense. I agree Kim still has an advantage but strategy wise I wouldn't wanna see a brawl for my money. If I'm backing Kim I want clinch, body lock, tight top control, guard pass, sub. Easy.

I'm saying even worst case scenario, which is brawling, I give the advantage to Kim. Clinch and TDs and all that is obviously preferable.

[JIBBBY]

Fox sports predictions.. Short reads and a vid maybe worth checking..

http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/gallery/predictions-for-every-fight-on-the-ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-hunt-main-card-060817

[Sanity Check]

Chan Mi Jeon second to last fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Chan Mi Jeon second to last fight.

Has fought all 0-0 fighters until her last fight. Staying away from this one but I think Aldrich wins.

[UncleChael]

Go Preds Go!!!

[Sanity Check]

Has fought all 0-0 fighters until her last fight. Staying away from this one but I think Aldrich wins.

I went very small on Jeon, looks like she has a kickboxing background.

http://www.ufc.com/fighter/chan-mi-jeon

[JIBBBY]

Go Preds Go!!!

They went right down the toilet tonight..

[PaperTrail07]

Series goes 7 JIBBS......Pitt wins it...

Also...the more I break down the main event, the height and reach for BB is just too much....he wins TKO here Boys....2nd round at most...

[JIBBBY]

Series goes 7 JIBBS......Pitt wins it...

Also...the more I break down the main event, the height and reach for BB is just too much....he wins TKO here Boys....2nd round at most...

Hunt has the quick looping junging hook, that could find Beasts chin.. I think it's tough fight to call.. KO either way..

[PaperTrail07]

BB is more athletic...he could straight toss hunt around...with the size advantage I think landing that shot will be pretty tough...

Hunt has the quick looping junging hook, that could find Beasts chin.. I think it's tough fight to call.. KO either way..

[PaperTrail07]

Besides the KO overseas 3 years ago against Nelson....Hunt has only beat Bigfoot and Mir ......I think BB should be -170 here...

[JIBBBY]

Besides the KO overseas 3 years ago against Nelson....Hunt has only beat Bigfoot and Mir ......I think BB should be -170 here...

Paper you seemed fired up for this event.. That's how I felt with the last one and I killed it..

Hope you nail this bad boy down Paper!!! Positive vibes and energy helps with gambling along with good and solid capping.. Get it Paper!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Paper you seemed fired up for this event.. That's how I felt with the last one and I killed it..

Hope you nail this bad boy down Paper!!! Positive vibes and energy helps with gambling along with good and solid capping.. Get it Paper!!!

Nice to see Jibs spreading the good vibes as usual.

[PaperTrail07]

I really AM LOL....I at least FEEL confident....some of the matchups lately have been tough to call for me.....

Paper you seemed fired up for this event.. That's how I felt with the last one and I killed it..

Hope you nail this bad boy down Paper!!! Positive vibes and energy helps with gambling along with good and solid capping.. Get it Paper!!!

[rsynweap84]

I really AM LOL....I at least FEEL confident....some of the matchups lately have been tough to call for me.....

Definitely this, dunno why but this card feels like a good card to me, mainly the main card which is where I think I will target most of my plays. Also liking Kim/Gouti as well might toss them in a few plays as well. The rest I'll use as a lil' break in the action to make some last bets, refill me drink, etc...

And speaking of plays, for me first one...

6/10/2017 11:59PM Lewis wins by TKO/KO +159 vs Any other result 6/10/2017 11:59 PM UFC Fighting 1102 Derek Brunson* -280 vs Daniel Kelly 6/10/2017 10:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1409 Elliott wins inside distance* +315 vs Not Elliott inside distance

Risking $25.00 To Win $339.68

Trouble I had here was choosing Brunson ITD or Elliot. Personally I like em' both ITD tbh. If Brunson wants a win, and back into the mix, he definitely should go for the finish, and the quicker the better. Elliot go get a decision here, but I see a finish just as likely, I mean that Elliot/Smolka fight was nuts, but he definitely won that imo, and so far I think he's given DJ the hardest fight, but for him to do what he did to Smolka after Smolka KO'd Ben on the ground, I think Elliot will have a definite ground advantage, and his striking ain't bad niether, but not saying Nguyen can't win this, I think Elliot is smart enough to know he could, and will take appropriate action here. If I do go Elliot ITD the bet will look something like this...

6/10/2017 11:59PM Lewis wins by TKO/KO +159 vs Any other result 6/10/2017 11:59 PM MMA Props Fighting 1109 Brunson wins inside distance* -112 vs Not Brunson inside distance 6/10/2017 10:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1409 Elliott wins inside distance* +315 vs Not Elliott inside distance

Risking $25.00 To Win $483.63

Tough decision, but I am very much liking the second option, although the first would be perfectly okay with me as well.


EDIT: I took BB in a $25 TKO prop last week at +159, thought it'd be good for a 3 leg, open parlay, seems like 5Dimes dropped the odd down to +112, but I do like his round 1 and 2 props...

Sat 6/10

1025 Lewis wins in round 1

+300

Sat 6/10

1027 Lewis wins in round 2

+525

[PaperTrail07]

Tailed parlay Had Lewis KO myself.....not as good of a line... SHARP.....