UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov (April 22, 2017)

[Teem]

What betting site do you use?

[Hugo de Naranja]

What betting site do you use?

5Dimes

[Shagdogy]

So I liked Ortiz based on memory, but now that I rewatch some fights, I think I have Moreno as a slight fav IMO. Definitely some value on him as a dog. Looks like I'm a bit late with the capping here though, as the line has moved quite a bit for Moreno. Only +130 now from +170. Oh well. I think he might get a small play from me. Maybe.

[Ty$]

Who's thinks Barberena gets the finish ITD? I'm leaning yes

[Shagdogy]

I'm gonna get this ball rolling... hoping for some barking today:

Sanchez/Iaquinta u2.5, +123 - 1u
Lauzon +160, 1u
Sandoval +125, 1u
Moreno by dec +305, .66u
Holtzman -290, 4.35u

Maybe some more to come. Good luck everyone.

[Shagdogy]

Wow. Dandois is TRASH. I would unload on Davis but my site is not offering props on that fight right now. I'd hedge with Dandois by sub because that is the only possible other outcome than Davis win.

[PaperTrail07]

My bets:

Perry -145
Schnell -140
OSP -160
Leites -125
Ellenberger/Perry Over 1.5-125


Holtzman-315
BarB-325 Parlay 1 pays 7.23

GL fellas Got some $ on this card....need a winner

[Shagdogy]

My bets:

Perry -145
Schnell -140
OSP -160
Leites -125
Ellenberger/Perry Over 1.5-125


Holtzman-315
BarB-325 Parlay 1 pays 7.23

GL fellas Got some $ on this card....need a winner

Good luck. All same size bets? Curious about your leans on OSP and Leites. Find those fights tough to call.

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah the top are all to win 100--bottom have 200 on parlay....

Osp will be motivated coming off 3 losses....delima looked like ass at weigh ins---that's it
I also think Alvey is a huge stepdown in skills for Leites...fighting mous..biz...there really shouldn't be anything he cant handle from alvey...also a step up for alvey and on occasion he get very inactive..so if that KO does not land the points aren't in his favor...

[Ty$]

Wow. Dandois is TRASH. I would unload on Davis but my site is not offering props on that fight right now. I'd hedge with Dandois by sub because that is the only possible other outcome than Davis win.

What site?? Think Davis gets the finish??

I think Holtzman and Barberena both get finishes and I'm putting lots of stock into that.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wow. Dandois is TRASH. I would unload on Davis but my site is not offering props on that fight right now. I'd hedge with Dandois by sub because that is the only possible other outcome than Davis win.

It's Women's Bantamweight though. I agree Dandois is not good but you should NEVER lay minus odds on WBW's. If you look at all the bouts since the division's inception, the underdog wins over 60% of the time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Who's thinks Barberena gets the finish ITD? I'm leaning yes

I put some money on him to win in R2/R3 but I don't have much stake in that fight.

[Shagdogy]

What site?? Think Davis gets the finish??

I think Holtzman and Barberena both get finishes and I'm putting lots of stock into that.

I'm not sure about finishes. I think they both win but I'm only willing to throw down on Holtzman.

[Shagdogy]

It's Women's Bantamweight though. I agree Dandois is not good but you should NEVER lay minus odds on WBW's. If you look at all the bouts since the division's inception, the underdog wins over 60% of the time.

Good look. I would only do it if I could hedge sub for a fairly safe play. I can't imagine Dandois winning any other way.

[Shagdogy]

What site?? Think Davis gets the finish??

I have "a guy." I go old school over here. Same lines as BookMaker most of the time.

As for Davis finishing... not sure. Dandois just has a really awkward and one dimensional style. She's slow and sloppy on the feet without any real power. She seems to get subs often, so I won't discount that, but I really think it's her only way to win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I have "a guy." I go old school over here. Same lines as BookMaker most of the time.

As for Davis finishing... not sure. Dandois just has a really awkward and one dimensional style. She's slow and sloppy on the feet without any real power. She seems to get subs often, so I won't discount that, but I really think it's her only way to win.

I think of Dandois as a discount Ronda Rousey

[Shagdogy]

Holtzman -255 now. Not sure why late money on McBride. I have no confidence in him. We'll see.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Waiting for -3.5s and then I will post my plays.

[Ty$]

Holtzman -255 now. Not sure why late money on McBride. I have no confidence in him. We'll see.

I'm sure it's cuz his length and only chance is sub. I agree though. Holtzman is bigger stronger and faster than Lentz. Might not be the technician like Lentz but should dominate all positions en route to a tko.
Prop Parlay
Holtzman ITD
Barberena ITD
$30 wins $182

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm sure it's cuz his length and only chance is sub. I agree though. Holtzman is bigger stronger and faster than Lentz. Might not be the technician like Lentz but should dominate all positions en route to a tko.
Prop Parlay
Holtzman ITD
Barberena ITD
$30 wins $182

I like that parlay Ty. Hope you hit it

[UncleChael]

Take Matt Danger Schnell in the 1st fight boys, he's the homie.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Take Matt Danger Schnell in the 1st fight boys, he's the homie.

Rooting for you! I have the fight played similarly.

[Shagdogy]

I'm gonna get this ball rolling... hoping for some barking today:

Sanchez/Iaquinta u2.5, +123 - 1u
Lauzon +160, 1u
Sandoval +125, 1u
Moreno by dec +305, .66u
Holtzman -290, 4.35u

Maybe some more to come. Good luck everyone.

Adding Ellenberger/Perry o1.5, +105, 1u

[GunShard]

Lobov trains with McGregor. Live dog.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding Ellenberger/Perry o1.5, +105, 1u

I'm on the other side of that play. May the best man win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov Picks:
Matt Schnell Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Bryan Barberena Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Alexis Davis Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Danielle Taylor Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Scott Holtzman Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Brandon Moreno Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Sam Alvey Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Mike Perry Round 1 KO (Knee and Punches)
Stevie Ray Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
John Dodson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcos Rogerio De Lima Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Al Iaquinta Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision (50-45 x2, 49-46)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
John Dodson ($9,400)
Scott Holtzman ($9,300)
Mike Perry ($8,400)
Danielle Taylor ($7,700)
Brandon Moreno ($7,600)
Marcos Rogerio De Lima ($7,500)

Risk: 1u

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
John Dodson ($9,400)
Scott Holtzman ($9,300)
Mike Perry ($8,400)
Matt Schnell ($8,000)
Brandon Moreno ($7,600)
Cindy Dandois ($7,300)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 108: Swanson vs. Lobov

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Sandoval vs. Schnell
Sandoval+Schnell Won’t Start Round 2 (+362) .5u
Schnell ITD (+400) .5u

Fight #2: Barberena vs. Proctor
Barberena Round 2 (+550) .5u
Barberena Round 3 (+925) .5u

Fight #3: Davis vs. Dandois (DEBUT)
Davis+Dandois Under 2.5 (+110) 1.5u
Dandois (+210) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Taylor vs. Penne
Taylor (+110) 1u
Taylor Scorecards = No Action (+155) 1u
Taylor+Penne Under 2.5 (+250) .5u
Taylor KO/TKO (+655) .5u

Fight #5: Holtzman vs. McBride
Holtzman Round 2 (+525) .5u
Holtzman Round 3 (+900) .5u

Hedge:
McBride Submission (+1000) .25u

Fight #6: Moreno vs. Ortiz
Moreno (+125) 2u
Moreno Scorecards = No Action (+175) 2u
Moreno Decision (+300) .5u
Moreno Submission (+865) .5u

Hedge:
Ortiz Round 3 (+1900) .5u

Fight #7: Alvey vs. Leites
Alvey (+100) 3u
Alvey KO/TKO (+544) 1u
Alvey Round 3 (+1950) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Perry vs. Ellenberger
Perry+Ellenberger Under 1.5 (+105) 1u
Perry KO/TKO (+130) 2.5u

Hedge:
Ellenberger Round 1 (+425) .5u

Fight #9: Ray vs. Lauzon
Lauzon ITD (+425) 1u

Fight #10: Dodson vs. Wineland
Dodson+Wineland Under 2.5 (+125) 1u
Dodson Round 1 (+165) 1u

Hedge:
Wineland KO/TKO (+1200) .25u

Fight #11: Rogerio de Lima vs. Saint Preux
Saint Preux Submission (+900) 2u

Hedge:
Lima Round 1 (+250) .5u

Fight #12: Iaquinta vs. Sanchez
Iaquinta KO/TKO (+165) 2u

Fight #13: Swanson vs. Lobov
Swanson+Lobov Goes Distance (+180) 1.5u
Swanson Unanimous Decision (+395) .5u
Swanson Submission (+705) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Perry/Dodson (+105) 1u
Taylor/Saint Preux+Rogerio de Lima Under 1.5 (+210) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Holtzman/Dodson KO (+118) 2u
Perry+Ellenberger Won’t Start R2/Dodson+Wineland Won’t Start R2 (+470) .25u
Alvey+Leites Under 2.5/Perry+Ellenberger Under 1.5/Ray (+649) .25u
Dodson+Wineland WSR3/RDL/Iaquinta -3.5/Swanson -3.5 (+669) .25u
Taylor/Holtzman+McBride WGD/Moreno (+822) .25u
Schnell+Sandoval WGD/Barberena ITD/Davis+Dandois WGD (+1009) .25u
Perry+Ellenberger U1.5/Dodson+Wineland U2.5/Iaquinta ITD (+1022) .5u
Ellenberger KO/Ray ITD (+1441) .25u
Dandois ITD/Taylor ITD (+2709) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+352) 1.25u
Ray+Lauzon FOTN (+600) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+980) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2975) .25u

[Shagdogy]

Looks like we see Holtzman, Moreno, Lauzon, and Iaquinta similar, Hugo.... let's hit those.

I'm having instant buyer's remorse on the Ellenberger/Perry under. Those guys are gonna brawl.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Looks like we see Holtzman, Moreno, Lauzon, and Iaquinta similar, Hugo.... let's hit those.

I'm having instant buyer's remorse on the Ellenberger/Perry under. Those guys are gonna brawl.

That's what I'm thinking.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added:
Holtzman -3.5/Swanson -3.5 (+106) 1u

[PaperTrail07]

sometimes those fast fights so down....

[PaperTrail07]

Start this off right

[PaperTrail07]

Ellenberger gets the TD that 1st round will be over real quick

[Hugo de Naranja]

Schnell almost had him there. Still cashed WGD