Tough call.....Lauzon dominated and got the W last fight too...
Originally posted by firekillex
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LeAN rAY ....Comment -
He definitely did not dominate his last fight. Most people thought he lostOriginally posted by PaperTrail07Comment -
Agreed Held was tough. It'll all depend on if joe can get the takedowns. Otherwise I see Stevie dancing to a decisionOriginally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
Odds are up... Love Moreno at +170Comment -
Sorry-meant he was dominated-----only a few guy saw him as the winner and unfortunately they were judging the fight lol...Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
Joe himself even said he lost...HELD was game though.....Comment -
Got itOriginally posted by PaperTrail07Comment -
I liked him at (+125) and bet him there. Oops! Usually I'm pretty good at getting optimal lines when they peak. Not this time.Originally posted by Ty$Comment -
MMA MANIA early prelims - Part 1
135 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Cindy Dandois
Following her knockout loss to Ronda Rousey, Alexis Davis (17-7) returned to the cage with an impressive armbar submission of Sara Kaufman for her sixth win in seven fights. Pregnancy delayed her next fight until 19 months later, when she suffered the first submission loss of her career to Sara McMann.
Eight of her professional wins have come by submission, all eight by either armbar or rear-naked choke.
Cindy Dandois (8-2) — who made her professional debut in 2009 with a decision over Marloes Coenen — has faced a “Who’s Who” in M-1 and Invicta, including recent Invicta title challenger Yana Kunistskaya, Cyborg-slayer Jorina Baars, and current Invicta Bantamweight champion Tonya Evinger. “Battlecat” won three straight since falling to Evinger in 2014, submitting Featherweight champion Megan Anderson and Jessamyn Duke in the process.
She has not gone to the judges since her pro debut.
If all goes well, this could be an excellent grappling battle. Both women have top-tier grappling games and aggressively pursue submissions. Davis might be the stronger wrestler, while Dandois is willing to pull guard if needed.
It might wind up being the striking that decides it. Davis has a decent-if-basic kickboxing game, particularly with her low kicks, while Dandois just looks uncomfortable on the feet. Her one-dimensional offense makes it easy for Davis to snuff out takedown attempts. “Ally-Gator” spends enough time on top and lands enough on the feet to take a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Bryan Barberena vs. Joe Proctor
Consecutive upset wins over Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves had Bryan Barberena (12-4) riding high with nine wins in his previous 10 fights. Colby Covington proved more difficult to overcome, battering Barberena for a one-sided decision win.
He has finished nine of his professional opponents, eight by form of knockout.
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15’s Joe Proctor (11-4) defeated Jordan Rinaldi and Chris Tickle on the show before running afoul of James Vick in the quarterfinals. Nearly five years in UFC have seen him amass a 4-3 record, including a knockout loss to Magomed Mustafaev in his last fight.
This will be his first fight since the Mustafaev loss 16 months ago.
The Barberena playbook isn’t exactly complicated, but it’s damn effective against those unable to either physically overpower him or pick him apart at range. The former is going to be more difficult now that he’s back at Lightweight and Proctor doesn’t have the tools to pull off the latter.
Being very big, very tough, and immune to getting tired can carry you quite a ways in UFC, especially against opponents coming off major layoffs. Proctor might give him some early issues, but Barberena’s pressure ought to carry him to a late stoppage win.
Prediction: Barberena via third-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Hector Sandoval vs. Matt Schnell
Hector Sandoval (13-3) jumped right into the deep end in his Octagon debut when he stepped up on short notice to replace Demetrious Johnson against Wilson Reis. Though the Brazilian proved too much to handle, Sandoval proved his chops with a decision over Colombian Oylmpian Fredy Serrano at UFC on FOX 22.
He will give up six inches of height to the 5’8” Matt Schnell (10-3).
Schnell, the interim Legacy FC Flyweight Champion, submitted Matt Rizzo in the opening round of TUF 24, but fell to eventual winner Tim Elliott in the quarterfinals. He bit off more than he could chew in his UFC debut when he stepped up in weight to face Rob Font on short notice, suffering the first knockout loss of his career.
He has submitted six professional opponents and knocker out another two.
I keep thinking of this fight as a newbie versus a veteran, then I remember that Sandoval’s got more fights and his strength of schedule isn’t all that much worse than Schnell’s outside of the latter’s last few fights. “Kid Alex’s” speed and wrestling pose a threat that Schnell, height advantage notwithstanding, isn’t equipped to handle.
Schnell’s issues with takedown defense figure to be the deciding factor. That’s because he’s unlikely to finish Sandoval off of his back and the difference in hand speed makes the striking every bit as hairy. Sandoval scores with enough takedowns and flurries to win the decision.
Prediction: Sandoval via unanimous decisionComment -
Wonder why Moreno is such a big underdog.Originally posted by Ty$
Last I heard, Moreno was training out of elevation gym with TJ Dillashaw, Duane Ludwig and those guys.
He's also coming off a win over Ryan Benoit, who is one of the toughest guys in the division.
Odds should be closer.Comment -
Maybe cuz Ortiz has never been finished? And that's Morenos strongest aspect before looking great all 3 rounds last fight. Moreno prolly wins a DEC if he fights smart like last fight.Originally posted by Sanity CheckComment -
Also the fight is in Tennessee which is Ortiz' home state.Originally posted by Ty$Comment -
I thought Dustin Ortiz looked very good in his fight vs. Zach Mak. Very improved, and has fought much higher level competition than Moreno.Originally posted by Sanity CheckComment -
Good info especially when you consider that neither guy has ever been finished. This fight has decision written all over it.Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
Originally posted by Shagdogy
Yeah I was on Zack for that fight. Moreno did get choked out on TUF. I'll be on the younger plus odds fighter who's been looking sharpComment -
Split decision evenOriginally posted by ShagdogyComment -
Originally posted by JIBBBYMMA MANIA early prelims - Part 1
135 lbs.: Alexis Davis vs. Cindy Dandois
Following her knockout loss to Ronda Rousey, Alexis Davis (17-7) returned to the cage with an impressive armbar submission of Sara Kaufman for her sixth win in seven fights. Pregnancy delayed her next fight until 19 months later, when she suffered the first submission loss of her career to Sara McMann.
Eight of her professional wins have come by submission, all eight by either armbar or rear-naked choke.
Cindy Dandois (8-2) — who made her professional debut in 2009 with a decision over Marloes Coenen — has faced a “Who’s Who” in M-1 and Invicta, including recent Invicta title challenger Yana Kunistskaya, Cyborg-slayer Jorina Baars, and current Invicta Bantamweight champion Tonya Evinger. “Battlecat” won three straight since falling to Evinger in 2014, submitting Featherweight champion Megan Anderson and Jessamyn Duke in the process.
She has not gone to the judges since her pro debut.
If all goes well, this could be an excellent grappling battle. Both women have top-tier grappling games and aggressively pursue submissions. Davis might be the stronger wrestler, while Dandois is willing to pull guard if needed.
It might wind up being the striking that decides it. Davis has a decent-if-basic kickboxing game, particularly with her low kicks, while Dandois just looks uncomfortable on the feet. Her one-dimensional offense makes it easy for Davis to snuff out takedown attempts. “Ally-Gator” spends enough time on top and lands enough on the feet to take a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Davis via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Bryan Barberena vs. Joe Proctor
Consecutive upset wins over Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves had Bryan Barberena (12-4) riding high with nine wins in his previous 10 fights. Colby Covington proved more difficult to overcome, battering Barberena for a one-sided decision win.
He has finished nine of his professional opponents, eight by form of knockout.
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15’s Joe Proctor (11-4) defeated Jordan Rinaldi and Chris Tickle on the show before running afoul of James Vick in the quarterfinals. Nearly five years in UFC have seen him amass a 4-3 record, including a knockout loss to Magomed Mustafaev in his last fight.
This will be his first fight since the Mustafaev loss 16 months ago.
The Barberena playbook isn’t exactly complicated, but it’s damn effective against those unable to either physically overpower him or pick him apart at range. The former is going to be more difficult now that he’s back at Lightweight and Proctor doesn’t have the tools to pull off the latter.
Being very big, very tough, and immune to getting tired can carry you quite a ways in UFC, especially against opponents coming off major layoffs. Proctor might give him some early issues, but Barberena’s pressure ought to carry him to a late stoppage win.
Prediction: Barberena via third-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Hector Sandoval vs. Matt Schnell
Hector Sandoval (13-3) jumped right into the deep end in his Octagon debut when he stepped up on short notice to replace Demetrious Johnson against Wilson Reis. Though the Brazilian proved too much to handle, Sandoval proved his chops with a decision over Colombian Oylmpian Fredy Serrano at UFC on FOX 22.
He will give up six inches of height to the 5’8” Matt Schnell (10-3).
Schnell, the interim Legacy FC Flyweight Champion, submitted Matt Rizzo in the opening round of TUF 24, but fell to eventual winner Tim Elliott in the quarterfinals. He bit off more than he could chew in his UFC debut when he stepped up in weight to face Rob Font on short notice, suffering the first knockout loss of his career.
He has submitted six professional opponents and knocker out another two.
I keep thinking of this fight as a newbie versus a veteran, then I remember that Sandoval’s got more fights and his strength of schedule isn’t all that much worse than Schnell’s outside of the latter’s last few fights. “Kid Alex’s” speed and wrestling pose a threat that Schnell, height advantage notwithstanding, isn’t equipped to handle.
Schnell’s issues with takedown defense figure to be the deciding factor. That’s because he’s unlikely to finish Sandoval off of his back and the difference in hand speed makes the striking every bit as hairy. Sandoval scores with enough takedowns and flurries to win the decision.
Prediction: Sandoval via unanimous decision
Part 2
185 lbs.: Thales Leites vs. Sam Alvey
Four years after his decision loss to Alessio Sakara at UFC 101, Thales Leites (26-7) returned to UFC and promptly won five straight, earning “Performance of the Night” bonuses for his stoppage wins over Francis Carmont and Tim Boetsch. He has since gone just 1-3, dropping decisions to Michael Bisping, Gegard Mousasi and Krzysztof Jotko.
Fifteen of his professional wins have come by submission.
Three consecutive first-round knockouts had Sam Alvey (30-8) on the verge of joining the Middleweight elite, only for Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou to knock him down a few pegs. He rebounded with four consecutive victories in just over six months, most recently a decision over Nate Marquardt in Denver.
Seven of his last 11 wins have come by knockout.
Leites is just hard for me to get a bead on. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s an aggressive bruiser with an iron chin and enough wrestling to bring his Brazilian jiu-jitsu to bear. Then he goes and just gives up against Mousasi and Jotko. I just don’t get how this guy can trade bombs with Boetsch and then wilt under a decent jab.
Alvey is not someone you can be mentally weak against. Worse, Leites’ straightforward bruising opens him up to counters on the feet and I’m not sure he has the tools to crack Alvey’s takedown defense. The Brazilian is tough enough to take what Alvey dishes out, but an inability to consistently overcome adversity dooms him to a decision loss.
Prediction: Alvey via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Dustin Ortiz vs. Brandon Moreno
The athleticism and scrambling ability of Dustin Ortiz (16-6) weren’t enough to save him from Wilson Reis and Jussier “Formiga,” who overwhelmed him on the mat in consecutive fights. They were, however, enough to save him from Zach Makovsky, resulting in Ortiz’s third UFC split decision win.
He will give up two inches of height to the 5’7” Brandon Moreno (13-3).
Moreno nearly flipped the script on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 when he gave top-seeded Alexandre Pantoja all he could handle, then flipped it completely with an upset submission of Louis Smolka in his Octagon debut. His next time out, he faced down power-puncher Ryan Benoit at TUF Finale and walked away with a split decision win.
He has submitted nine opponents overall, tapping six of his last eight with chokes.
Ortiz is a breed of fighter I refer to, with the utmost respect, as “Bastard Fighters,” the sort of opponents who are just miserable to fight. He’s the sort of fighter whom you cannot have fun against because he pushes a brutal pace and has the raw strength to drain the life out of you in just a few scrambles.
Beating him takes either positional brilliance or a strong enough wrestling game to sprawl-and-brawl. Talented as Moreno is, I’m not sure he’s ready for Ortiz’s level of grind. Ortiz’s superior takedown game and ironclad submission defense carry him to victory.
Prediction: Ortiz via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Scott Holtzman vs. Michael McBride
Another product of the venerable MMA Lab, Scott Holtzman (9-2) ran through Anthony Christodolou in his Octagon debut before suffering a surprise decision loss to Drew Dober. He re-entered the win column by out-dueling the gritty Coody Pfister, then came up just short against Josh Emmett in December.
“Hot Sauce” will give up four inches of height to the 6’1” Michael McBride (8-2).
Canada’s McBride stepped up on short notice when Mairbek Taisumov’s **** issues flared up again, taking on Nik Lentz at UFC 203. He had no answers for “The Carnie’s” wrestling, ultimately succumbing to ground-and-pound midway through the second.
All eight of his wins have come by submission, even of them by form of choke.
There’s still a sizable gap between where Holtzman is as a fighter and where his athleticism could take him. Considering he’s already 33, we might never see him close that gap, but McBride isn’t the man to punish him for it.
Holtzman has gotten much better at stuffing the takedown since getting run over by Dober. McBride will likely struggle to get him to the mat and, on the feet, has no real checks for Holtzman’s punching power. “Hot Sauce” runs the classic sprawl-and-brawl on his way to a late finish.
Prediction: Holtzman via second-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Danielle Taylor
Jessica Penne (12-4), Invicta’s Atomweight champion, earned her the No. 4 rank on TUF 20, where she reached the semifinals before losing a decision to Carla Esparza. She is 1-2 in UFC proper, suffering consecutive technical knockout losses to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade in her last two fights.
Seven of her 12 professional wins have come by submission.
A hilarious height difference turned the Octagon debut of Danielle Taylor (8-2) against Maryna Moroz into a cautious affair, resulting in Taylor’s first career decision loss. She had slightly more luck against the smaller Seo Hee Ham and walked away with a split decision in Melbourne.
She will give up five inches of height and seven inches of reach to Penne.
Penne is, in all honestly, much better than her recent performances suggest. The fact that those two losses came to the current champion and the current top contender should earn her some slack. She’s still undersized for the division and well below average on the feet, but I do think she can win here.
Taylor fights with almost no urgency and her over-reliance on the overhand right should provide Penne ample takedown opportunities. Penne’s also resilient enough to take the blows coming in, as Taylor isn’t the sort of swarmer she’s struggled with. Penne drags her down for a submission win late in the first.
Prediction: Penne via first-round submissionComment -
Diego is looking OLDComment -
Is it the beard?Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
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Among other thingsOriginally posted by Sanity CheckIs it the beard?
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De Lima looks horrible at the weigh ins, I might take OSP here.
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Diego Sanchez gets smoked by Al.. His time has past him and his chin is showing signs of even being shot now... Wish the odds weren't so horrible on the straight..
UFC Fight Night 108 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, Tennessee - FS1Sat 4/22 1101 Diego Sanchez +320 o2½ -145 11:59PM 1102 Al Iaquinta -390 u2½ +125
Probably will go with Al Iaquinta ITD... Could win by decision though but I doubt it..
1109 Iaquinta wins inside distance +120 Comment -
Like Al a lot but hasn't he been out of the game for years? Seems like most people not named Dominick Cruz have a little rust coming back...and Diego doesn't feel like an easy welcome back..am I off on this?Originally posted by JIBBBYComment -
You are right...Al has been out a while.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Al-Iaquinta-42817Originally posted by mdunlap3
Al is 29 years old and still trains with some studs daily.. Arguably in his MMA prime also..
Diego just seems weathered and worn out to me.. He's still only 35 years old himself and coming off a decision win with Marcin Held whom is a one trick pony tailor made for Diego... Held gave Diego little resistance standing in other words.. Al will bring it standing as he did against Masvidal even though he himself got rocked badly in that fight early one.. Al showed heart though in that fight..
Diego by KO or ITD will be my hedge angles just because the odds are nuts on those props. (we'll see) I have little faith in Diego Sanchez these days though and this might just be pissing money away....
I highly doubt Diego Sanchez will out work, out wrestle, out strike and out point Al to a decision win so I think these props are the call for the hedge...
Little safer hedge just in case diego gets it to the ground and slaps on a sub... He is a black belt afterall..1129 Sanchez wins by TKO/KO +1400
1105 Sanchez wins inside distance +800 Comment -
I would say if you want to hedge do Sanchez Submission but wait till right before the fight to get (+1600) or so. Iaquinta has only lost twice in the UFC and both times were by technical submission. I doubt Sanchez has the power to KO him.Originally posted by JIBBBYComment -
ITD is the safe bet on the hedge.. Not to get greedy.. Since Diego is a brawler maybe he could KO AL on a long shot..Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
Diego by sub does have massive value though and he is a legit Brazilian Black Belt.. Diego is a brawler though these days and his take downs suck.. Be shocked if he could take down Al and control him on the ground...Besides that Diego doesn't get many sub wins these days because his fights do typically stay standing....
1127 Sanchez wins by submission +1330 Comment -
Looks like Diego hasn't won by finish in almost a decade. I love the guy but I think he gets TKOed or 30-27ed here.Originally posted by JIBBBYComment -
Besides that Al has been rolling around with Chris Weidman for years now.. Matt Sera works with Jits as well daily.. I'm pretty sure AL's wrestled up and Jits defense will be up to par also against Diego Sanchez... I don't see a sub a likely sub finish by either guy..Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
Like you said it's probably gonna be either AL by KO or by decision. On the flip Diego by KO...
1133 Iaquinta wins by TKO/KO +130
hedge1111 Iaquinta wins by 3 round decision +135
1129 Sanchez wins by TKO/KO +1400 Comment -
Anyone know why he took 2 years off>? nevermind -gooleComment -
Seems healthy and likely to put on a show....like the TKO bet JIBBS and Diego has a chin.....STEP IN REF LOL...Comment -
I put 2u total on Iaquinta KO/TKO back at (+170) and (+160). Not sure if I would still take it at those odds.Originally posted by JIBBBYComment -
It's back up to (+157)Comment -
Originally posted by PaperTrail07
Al Iaquinta had a knee injury.
He had differences with the UFC over how to treat it. The UFC wanted him to do stem cell. Al did research and found statistics saying stem cell didn't fix the condition he had. Al did what the UFC wanted & tried the stem cell treatment, it did nothing for his injured knee. Lots of time and money wasted/fustration over that.
In the end, I think a surgeon ended up giving Iaquinta the operation he needed at a huge discount. Otherwise Iaquinta might not have been able to afford it.
Then he says a UFC exec told him he was ineligible to receive fight of the night or performance of the night due to him missing a UFC media thing.
After that Al became a real estate agent. Now that he does real estate & is more financially stable & doesn't have to rely on the UFC to pay his bills, he decided to make a comeback.Comment -
I don't think he was successful as a realtor. At least that's what I've heard.Originally posted by Sanity CheckComment
