TUF 24 Finale: Demetrious Johnson vs Tim Elliott (December 3rd, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

I really think Cannonier has a great chance to win and win by tko. Cutelaba will take too many shots and Cannonier is dropping from Heavyweight w nice crisp boxing and some underrated wrestling. There are other dogs I'm on but this one has the best value I feel. Good luck guys.

I don't think this fight goes the distance and that's how I played it myself.... Likely that this fight ends in a KO stoppage one way or the other at some point either standing or on the ground...



Ion
Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
vs
Jared
Cannonier
"Tha Killa Gorilla"

REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
Country
USA

12-2-0, 1NC
Record
8-1-0

75%
KO/TKO
63%

17%
SUB
25%

8%
DEC
13%

[TPowell]

For some reason, I think this fight could go the distance, especially at the plus odds. Cutelaba has an AMAZING chin. I can't see him getting KO'd and I doubt Cannonier can get a TKO unless he gets him down and pounds him out. On the other side, maybe Cannonier's chin can hold up at 205?

[Ty$]

My big play is Jorge Masvidal on this card.. Need Jorge to win big time for this event to be a remote success.. Yes I paid the - odds price..

I definitely woulda picked a different fight to go big on. Jake is a live dog maybe the odds should be more +250 but it's not a lock for Jorge. Good dogs IMO are Davis Elvis Cannonier and Jake as a long shot.

[JIBBBY]

I definitely woulda picked a different fight to go big on. Jake is a live dog maybe the odds should be more +250 but it's not a lock for Jorge. Good dogs IMO are Davis Elvis Cannonier and Jake as a long shot.

I think Jake is washed up, Masvidal picking up his game now and peaking... I love Masvidal in this fight, it's gonna be a clinic standing..

$460.00

$200.00

Pending

12/3/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Jorge Masvidal -230* vs Jake Ellenberger

[TPowell]

The problem with Jake is that Masvidal is an animal. He may not be aggressive but he's a nightmare to try and pressure. If Jake does, Masvidal will pick him apart IMO. If he doesn't, Mas picks him apart more strategically. His only chance is to lay and pray IMO but that isn't going to happen

[Ty$]

Jake has power could tko him prolly won't happen but no one gave him a snow balls chance in hell last fight either except Jibby and he knows that was a dice roll like this one.

[Snowball]

my 2c

Kim -140
Schnell/Font Over 1.5 (-160)
Maynard +105
Moreno -160
Masvidal -230
Cejudo +168
Elliott/Johnson Under 4.5 (-165)

[TPowell]

Jake has power could tko him prolly won't happen but no one gave him a snow balls chance in hell last fight either except Jibby and he knows that was a dice roll like this one.

Brown is an action fighter but he's weak to the body. Masvidal is a technical machine with a chin from hell. That Ellenberger win against Brown gave me a massive discount here. Keep in mind, Brown had him on the ropes bad until that body shot

[JIBBBY]

Jake has power could tko him prolly won't happen but no one gave him a snow balls chance in hell last fight either except Jibby and he knows that was a dice roll like this one.

Masvidal is to slick to get caught standing and has the iron jaw to boot.. Can't see Hamberger laying Masvidal out on the canvass in this scrap..

Masvidal either wins by decision picking Jake apart standing for 3 rounds or knocks him out cold at some point... That's the only way I see this fight playing out.. Jake won't be able to lay and pray either.. Masvidal has upped his TD defense and get back up capabilities.. Masvidal I believe is peaking as an MMA fighter right now.. He's fought the best and always held his own in the cage...

Masvidal is the call here boys.. Should be easy money..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agreed but at the time I laid the ITD bet down that prop was +200 and I think the KO prop was around +220 so I didn't wanna get greedy over +20 points just in case.. Clark is the KO type for sure..

I think its smart to opt for safety when the odds on ITD and KO are that close.

[TPowell]

Good read from Gabe Killian on prop plays. I really like a lot of these but I dislike Jake +3.5 for sure. He gases too bad for me

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/prop-plays-for-the-tuf-24-finale/

[Hugo de Naranja]

The problem with Jake is that Masvidal is an animal. He may not be aggressive but he's a nightmare to try and pressure. If Jake does, Masvidal will pick him apart IMO. If he doesn't, Mas picks him apart more strategically. His only chance is to lay and pray IMO but that isn't going to happen

I think Jake will run out of the gate like he did against Matt Brown. He realizes he doesn't have the gas tank/durability to go the distance against top 15 guys. If he doesn't get the KO early, (in the first half round or so) Masvidal should have no trouble winning by late finish or unanimous decision.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good read from Gabe Killian on prop plays. I really like a lot of these but I dislike Jake +3.5 for sure. He gases too bad for me

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/p...tuf-24-finale/

Yeah I'm on Masvidal -3.5 for a pretty large bet.

[TPowell]

I think Jake will run out of the gate like he did against Matt Brown. He realizes he doesn't have the gas tank/durability to go the distance against top 15 guys. If he doesn't get the KO early, (in the first half round or so) Masvidal should have no trouble winning by late finish or unanimous decision.

Yeah, I'm going to play Masvidal ML at -210 and Jake 1st round at +700 or whatever. Masvidal is due for some good luck from the judges anyway

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah, I'm going to play Masvidal ML at -210 and Jake 1st round at +700 or whatever. Masvidal is due for some good luck from the judges anyway

Damn Gabe Killian is all over Ellenberger. He thinks he should be a (-280) favorite lol.

[TPowell]

Damn Gabe Killian is all over Ellenberger. He thinks he should be a (-280) favorite lol.

I didn't see that part lol, I doubt he said that. I do see some value in the R1 prop though. Go big on Mas and hedge some back with that

[UncleChael]

Masvidal is to slick to get caught standing and has the iron jaw to boot.. Can't see Hamberger laying Masvidal out on the canvass in this scrap..

Masvidal either wins by decision picking Jake apart standing for 3 rounds or knocks him out cold at some point... That's the only way I see this fight playing out.. Jake won't be able to lay and pray either.. Masvidal has upped his TD defense and get back up capabilities.. Masvidal I believe is peaking as an MMA fighter right now.. He's fought the best and always held his own in the cage...

Masvidal is the call here boys.. Should be easy money..

'Woke up by a girl I don't even know her name'.
I can't wait to watch this dude fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@TPowell

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/tuf-24-finale-play-jake-ellenberger-205-vs-jorge-masvidal-225/

He says it in the first sentence of Gabe's thoughts.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

My big play is Jorge Masvidal on this card.. Need Jorge to win big time for this event to be a remote success.. Yes I paid the - odds price..

Ellenberger looked great last bout

hopefully you don't get raped

[TPowell]

Sure enough, I missed that. That is INSANE. Gabe is a sharp guy but he's way off here IMO

[TPowell]

Ellenberger looked great last bout

hopefully you don't get raped

He was on shaky legs against Brown before he folded him with body blow. Brown's body is very weak. I just think he got WAY overrated off that win

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ellenberger looked great last bout

hopefully you don't get raped

He did not look great. He had 2 excellent moments sandwiched around 2 minutes of gassing, flinching and almost getting finished.

[JIBBBY]

I think its smart to opt for safety when the odds on ITD and KO are that close.

I learned that lesson the hard way over the years.. When it's close odds I just take the ITD prop even if a fighter is a one trick pony.. Only if the odds are close though..

For example it's hard to imagine Demian Maia getting a KO victory but if the odds are close between the Sub and ITD props I will jump on the ITD prop rather then the Sub prop.. Could get a rare pound out on the ground or a flash KO standing if lighting strikes in a bottle.. Anything can happen in MMA..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I learned that lesson the hard way over the years.. When it's close odds I just take the ITD prop even if a fighter is a one trick pony.. Only if the odds are close though..

For example it's hard to imagine Demian Maia getting a KO victory but if the odds are close between the Sub and ITD props I will jump on the ITD prop rather then the Sub prop.. Could get a rare pound out on the ground or a flash KO standing if lighting strikes in a bottle.. Anything can happen in MMA..

I think Maia also has 2 TKOs where his opponent got injured.

[JIBBBY]

Ellenberger looked great last bout

hopefully you don't get raped

I don't know about looking great.. More like Brown looked like shiit..

Thanks though Jakester, hope I don't get raped in this fight either...

I would normally hedge with the hamburger 1st round KO prop but I just don't think he even has a punchers chance in this fight.. Feeling pretty confident with Masvidal in this one..

[JIBBBY]

Sat 12/3		1001 Tim Elliott		+650	o4½ +140
11:59PM		1002 Demetrious Johnson		-1000	u4½ -160

Feeling pretty confident with Mighty Mouse but those straight odds are untouchable.. I still don't have a play on this fight yet.. It's either Mouse by decision or Mouse ITD...Hmmmm? Any thoughts fellas, pick a prop any prop??? Elliot is very tough to finish..

1011 Johnson wins by 5 round decision

+170

or

1009 Johnson wins inside the distance

-147

Main Card



Demetrious
Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
vs
Tim
Elliott

USA
Country
USA

24-2-1
Record
10-6-1

21%
KO/TKO
36%

38%
SUB
14%

42%
DEC
50%

[Shagdogy]

Cannonier and Curran, both small plays. That's all I can bring myself to moderately like. Curran is a real stupid fighter, yes, but if she keeps it standing and uses range she shouldn't find herself in any danger. Easier said than done when she fights as dumb as she does, but you have to imagine she's been focusing on it pretty hard in camp. I'll place a small wager that she'll show some learning curve kicking in.

As for Cannonier he has serious power and is dropping down. Always worth a shot at 2/1.

[UncleChael]

I don't know about looking great.. More like Brown looked like shiit..

Thanks though Jakester, hope I don't get raped in this fight either...

I would normally hedge with the hamburger 1st round KO prop but I just don't think he even has a punchers chance in this fight.. Feeling pretty confident with Masvidal in this one..

We all remember him putting out Jake Shields inthe 1st and Shields beat Tyron in a fight that never went to the ground (worst fight ever).Haha. Good luck Jibbbys. I like Masvidal a lot too.

[JIBBBY]

We all remember him putting out Jake Shields inthe 1st and Shields beat Tyron in a fight that never went to the ground (worse fight ever).Haha. Good luck Jibbbys. I like Masvidal a lot too.

8 accounts x $200 if he pulls off the win.. Only fight I bet straight on all my accounts... Need that baby to hit!!!!


OK HERE WE GO!!! Let's get it the ball rolling with a Devin Clark win to start tings off...


Tis da season to give but tis also da season to receive..

[JC2008]

Good luck, everybody.

[Snowball]

McMann down to -155 have to take her.

[TPowell]

Hit my starts round 3 at plus money. Should have added goes to decision at +170 too

[JIBBBY]

Good call on the Clark by Decision Hugo you hit that and I saw that.. I thought Clark would finish ITD myself. I did have Clark on my other books that didn't offer the props.. So I'm good with the Clark win as well.. Next..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Called this one exactly. My pre-fight prediction was Devin Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)

[JIBBBY]

I'm on the fight won't go the distance in this next one.. Was unsure on a winner pick..