TUF 24 Finale: Demetrious Johnson vs Tim Elliott (December 3rd, 2016)

[TPowell]

Anyone else surprised Moreno is the favorite? He did tag Pantoja a lot but never hurt him and he's too wild for a killer like Benoit.
If Serrano couldnt control Benoit on the ground how is Moreno gonna do it? He also only has 1 tko on his record, i guess he could get a sub in a crazy scramble.
Im kind of seeing improvements from Benoit who i think is the prospect with more upside, the mexicans never really seem to get to that elite level and i think Benoit should because of his power, also the fact that everyone is picking Moreno really makes me like Benoit.

Moreno will be the faster guy and much better on the ground here. Serrano is one of the lowest guys in the division. Benoit is just a big brawling guy with a lot of power. His takedown defense is shaky and his ground game isn't much at all. He's so big for the weight class that I think he doesn't do well in fast paced fights. Someone on Bookie Beatdown mentioned this and it makes sense.

[Sanity Check]

Anyone else surprised Moreno is the favorite? He did tag Pantoja a lot but never hurt him and he's too wild for a killer like Benoit.
If Serrano couldnt control Benoit on the ground how is Moreno gonna do it? He also only has 1 tko on his record, i guess he could get a sub in a crazy scramble.
Im kind of seeing improvements from Benoit who i think is the prospect with more upside, the mexicans never really seem to get to that elite level and i think Benoit should because of his power, also the fact that everyone is picking Moreno really makes me like Benoit.

Moreno finished Louis Smolka in his last fight and might be training with Henry Cejudo. He could have improved a lot since the ultimate fighter even if it was filmed only earlier this year.

Edit - Correction: Moreno is training at Elevation with TJ Dillashaw, etc.

Moreno will be the faster guy and much better on the ground here. Serrano is one of the lowest guys in the division. Benoit is just a big brawling guy with a lot of power. His takedown defense is shaky and his ground game isn't much at all. He's so big for the weight class that I think he doesn't do well in fast paced fights. Someone on Bookie Beatdown mentioned this and it makes sense.

Fredy Serrano wrestled in the olympics for columbia awhile back. His wrestling and ground game could be legit which could make Benoit's win over him on short notice more impressive.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC UF24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott Picks:
Dong Hyun Kim Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Elvis Mutapcic Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Devin Clark Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Jamie Moyle Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Rob Font Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Gray Maynard Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Brandon Moreno Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Alexis Davis Round 2 Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Ion Cutelaba Round 1 KO (Punch)
Jorge Masvidal Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Joseph Benavidez Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Demetrious Johnson Round 5 Submission (Armbar)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC UF24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Demetrious Johnson ($10,200)
Rob Font ($8,700)
Dong Hyun Kim ($8,300)
Ryan Benoit ($7,700)
Jamie Moyle ($7,600)
Henry Cejudo ($7,200)

Risk: 1u

UFC UF24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Demetrious Johnson ($10,200)
Ion Cutelaba ($8,900)
Dong Hyun Kim ($8,300)
Jamie Moyle ($7,600)
Matt Schnell ($7,500)
Jake Ellenberger ($7,400)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliott

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Stansbury vs. Clark
Clark Decision (+415) .5u

Fight #2: Mutapcic vs. Smith
Mutapcic (+100) 1u
Mutapcic Decision (+450) 1u
Mutapcic Round 3 (+1000) .5u
Mutapcic/Smith Draw (+6500) .2u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #3: Kim vs. O’Reilly
Kim/O’Reilly Draw (+6500) .2u

Fight #4: Curran vs. Moyle (DEBUT)
Moyle ITD (+330) 1u
Moyle Round 3 (+1200) .25u

Fight #5: Font vs. Schnell (DEBUT)
Font ITD (+115) 3u

Hedge(s):
Schnell Submission (+500) .5u
Schnell Round 1 (+800) .5u

Fight #6: Hall vs. Maynard
Maynard Decision (+305) 2u

Hedge(s):
Hall Decision (+425) 1u
Hall KO/TKO (+625) .5u
Hall Round 3 (+950) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #7: Moreno vs. Benoit
Moreno (-135) 2.7u to win 2u
Moreno Decision (+498) .5u

Hedge:
Benoit KO/TKO (+415) .5u

Fight #8: McMann vs. Davis
Davis (+160) 2u
Davis Round 2 (+825) .25u
Davis Round 3 (+1375) .25u

Hedge:
McMann ITD (+529) .5u

Fight #9: Cutelaba vs. Cannonier
Cutelaba ITD (-120) 2.4u to win 2u
Cutelaba Decision (+449) .5u

Hedge:
Cannonier KO/TKO (+465) .5u

Fight #10: Masvidal vs. Ellenberger
Masvidal -3.5 (-130) 5.2u to win 4u
Masvidal Decision (+177) 1u
Masvidal/Ellenberger Draw (+7000) .2u

Hedge(s):
Ellenberger ITD (+540) .5u
Ellenberger KO/TKO (+1150) 1u
Ellenberger Round 1 (+1375) .25u

Fight #11: Benavidez vs. Cejudo
Benavidez -3.5 (+115) 1u

Fight #12: Johnson (C) vs. Elliott
Johnson/Elliott Under 4.5 Rounds (+100) 2u
Johnson Submission (+205) 2u
Johnson Round 5 (+1725) 1u

Hedge(s):
Elliott Submission (+1950) .5u
Elliott Round 1 (+2700) .3u
Elliott Round 2 (+3200) .2u

Straight Parlays:
Font/Masvidal (+101) 2u
Cutelaba/Masvidal (+105) 1u
Font/Benavidez (+115) 2u
Cutelaba/Benavidez (+115) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Not Maynard ITD/Benavidez+Cejudo Go Distance (+101) 1u
Not Maynard ITD/Benavidez (+102) 1u
Maynard+Hall Go Distance/Masvidal Decision (+556) .5u
Kim ITD/Masvidal KO (+1136) .25u
McMann Decision/Masvidal Decision/Johnson Decision (+1334) .25u
Mutapcic Decision/Cejudo Decision (+1687) .25u
Font Decision/McMann Decision/Ellenberger Decision (+3830) .25u
Font Round 2/Benoit Round 2 (+5450) .1u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+243) 1.25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+602) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1753) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Benavidez/Cruz (+118) 1u

[TPowell]

Be careful on McMann. Her only path is decision IMO

[Hugo de Naranja]

Be careful on McMann. Her only path is decision IMO

Yeah I think Davis will win but she has been TKO'ed three times and will be susceptible to body punches after having a kid.

[Sanity Check]

Alexis Davis has been working on her wrestling with Henry Cejudo for this fight.

Her gameplan could be to wrestle and go for a sub, she's a blackbelt who has subbed a lot of people.

On the other hand, if McMann keeps it standing. Alexis Davis was losing the stand up to Sarah Kaufman in her last fight.

I think McMann prolly wins a 3 rd stand up battle.

[TPowell]

Alexis Davis has been working on her wrestling with Henry Cejudo for this fight.

Her gameplan could be to wrestle and go for a sub, she's a blackbelt who has subbed a lot of people.

On the other hand, if McMann keeps it standing. Alexis Davis was losing the stand up to Sarah Kaufman in her last fight.

I think McMann prolly wins a 3 rd stand up battle.

I just don't see McMann having anything other than her Olympic wrestling in this fight. Davis ITD (by sub probably) or McMann by decision. If you think McMann has a shot at finishing then I advise going with the UNDER instead. Davis has a clear path to a finish

[JIBBBY]

agreed and Cejudo is a complete douche...I hope Benavidez teaches him a lesson!

We'll see?

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins -

[bjpenn85]

We'll see?

First gif.....what happens? Hes about to stand just back up in the same sequence his getting taken down. LIKE I SAID IN THE POST 3 DAYS AGO. You cant take down benavidez down for longer then 5 sec. Its hilarious youre posting a clip that should prove benavidez getting taken down, when he gets back up just after hes getting taken down. How can anyone take anything you say serious after this post?

Even when Dj is soooo deep on that takeodwn, he only manages to hold him down for 2 sec....AND YOURE FACKING POSTING THIS SHIT LIKE ITS A REAL TAKEDOWN. Jibby......youre the crazy..just...absolutely crazy!!!!!!!

[JIBBBY]

First gif.....what happens? Hes about to stand just back up in the same sequence his getting taken down. LIKE I SAID IN THE POST 3 DAYS AGO. You cant take down benavidez down for longer then 5 sec. Its hilarious youre posting a clip that should prove benavidez getting taken down, when he gets back up just after hes getting taken down. How can anyone take anything you say serious after this post?

Even when Dj is soooo deep on that takeodwn, he only manages to hold him down for 2 sec....AND YOURE FACKING POSTING THIS SHIT LIKE ITS A REAL TAKEDOWN. Jibby......youre the crazy..just...absolutely crazy!!!!!!!

Relax BJ, I said taking Henry is a gamble.

I'm on the OVER myself but am rolling the dice with Henry as well... Getting take downs scores points.. Just look at what happen in the fight tonight in Bellator with Marcos Galvao, couple take downs in rounds 1 and 2 won him the fight even though he clearly lost round 3...

I'm thinking Henry uses his wrestling in this fight.. It's his strength and got him this far in the UFC... It also got DC (Daniel Cormier) this far in the UFC as well.. If Henry can hold his own standing the wrestling could be the difference on the cards... We'll see though?

[GunShard]

benavidez has only lost to Cruz and MM, smokes the rest. 10 years with consistent performances. Thats bettable imo.

I agree. I remember before the Mighty Mouse fight. Many were saying that Cejudo hasn't fought anyone significant and that MM would defeat Cejudo because of that.
Now Cejudo is fighting Benevidez, Cejudo still has not defeated a significant fighter.
Too many question marks on Cejudo until after this fight.

[JIBBBY]

[freeVICK]

Is ryan hall a bad bet? I watched the TUF season was he on and was amazed with his bjj.

[TPowell]

Is ryan hall a bad bet? I watched the TUF season was he on and was amazed with his bjj.

tough fight, Maynard will be so much bigger and much better as a wrestler than Hall. Hard to see him getting Maynard down to be honest. Maybe he gets his back on the feet? Hate to say it but we might have to watch Ryan Hall box a grandpa for 15 minutes

[firekillex]

Is ryan hall a bad bet? I watched the TUF season was he on and was amazed with his bjj.

hall by sub or hes getting raped , not impressed by him tbh... hes definitely not taking down maynard so well see how it goes he doesnt really goes for takedowns he mainly dives for leglocks so well see if he can tie up the bully i see maynard winning this though

[bjpenn85]

Relax BJ, I said taking Henry is a gamble.

I'm on the OVER myself but am rolling the dice with Henry as well... Getting take downs scores points.. Just look at what happen in the fight tonight in Bellator with Marcos Galvao, couple take downs in rounds 1 and 2 won him the fight even though he clearly lost round 3...

I'm thinking Henry uses his wrestling in this fight.. It's his strength and got him this far in the UFC... It also got DC (Daniel Cormier) this far in the UFC as well.. If Henry can hold his own standing the wrestling could be the difference on the cards... We'll see though?

I havent seen anything that points to cejudo outwrestles benavidez. Maybe im wrong, that happens a lot. But less with experienced fighters. New people coming into the ufc, its kind of hard to know what to expect sometimes. In this case there so much tape. Im pretty confident the wrestling of cejudo will get nullified here.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

We'll see?

where's cejudo getting starched by MM gif?

[Enkhbat]

I am betting on Benavidez, Masvidal and McMann 1 unit each. Worst case scenario is I go 2-1 and be break evenish. Good luck all

[JIBBBY]

where's cejudo getting starched by MM gif?

MM starches everyone that's why I'm not fading him tonight against Elliot...

1011 Johnson wins by 5 round decision

+151

It was a knee to the body that starched Henry just for the record..... Henry has never been rocked or put to sleep with a punch or kick to the head.. Benevidez isn't MM...

[firekillex]

Benavidez had multiple good exchanges with mighty mouse the first fight... it went to a split decision in a 5 round fight... not sure why people send gifs lol you can send a gif of somebody that lost a fight look good in a certain scenario everybody has good moments in fights.. benavidez is easily the 2nd best flyweight he's going to expose cejudo here wouldn't be surprised if he finishes him to imo... cejudo is and has been highly overrated they pushed him due to his gold medal and wanting a fresh name.. he's finished nobody good and his only solid win really is Formiga who benavidez starched along with the rest of the top 10 125ers.. just really think cejudo is going to be exposed here and if his weight cut didn't go well again this is gonna be a bad night for him unless he catches benavidez because I highly doubt he'll be able to keep him down if he can get a takedown... luckily for him it's a 3 rounder so he might be able to just lose a decision here

[JAKEPEAVY21]

MM starches everyone that's why I'm not fading him tonight against Elliot...

1011 Johnson wins by 5 round decision

+151

It was a knee to the body that starched Henry just for the record..... Henry has never been rocked or put to sleep with a punch or kick to the head.. Benevidez isn't MM...

sorry for your coming loss this evening pal!

[Mxs1332]

My plays for tonight

Mutapcic 1 unit

Hall 1 unit

Parlay 1 unit
Font, Masvidal, Mighty Mouse

[Hugo de Naranja]

Benavidez had multiple good exchanges with mighty mouse the first fight... it went to a split decision in a 5 round fight... not sure why people send gifs lol you can send a gif of somebody that lost a fight look good in a certain scenario everybody has good moments in fights.. benavidez is easily the 2nd best flyweight he's going to expose cejudo here wouldn't be surprised if he finishes him to imo... cejudo is and has been highly overrated they pushed him due to his gold medal and wanting a fresh name.. he's finished nobody good and his only solid win really is Formiga who benavidez starched along with the rest of the top 10 125ers.. just really think cejudo is going to be exposed here and if his weight cut didn't go well again this is gonna be a bad night for him unless he catches benavidez because I highly doubt he'll be able to keep him down if he can get a takedown... luckily for him it's a 3 rounder so he might be able to just lose a decision here

Totally in agreement with you here Fire. I hope to see you on my thread again sometime soon. I miss our conversations about future fights and they've definitely been helpful to me in the past.

[JIBBBY]

sorry for your coming loss this evening pal!

I said I was on the over, small on Henry by decision (3 rounds) and straight.. If Henry loses the fight but the fight goes the distance I still win money.. If Henry wins and it goes over then I win more money..

If Benevidez stops Henry before the final bell I lose everything...

Don't jump to conclusions Jakester and think I'm all in on Henry because I'm not.. I'll say again betting on Henry is a gamble but worth taking from my point of view for small as the dog.. By no means do I guarantee a Henry win though..


Henry won 10 straight and many by decision before getting worked over by MM in his last fight... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Henry-Cejudo-125297

[Rich Benjamins]

https://youtu.be/3mNc0pfNVWs

Devin Clark baby! He's my big horse tonite.

[JIBBBY]

https://youtu.be/3mNc0pfNVWs

Devin Clark baby! He's my big horse tonite.

With ya on this Richy Rich!! Devin ITD works for me at +200...

[TPowell]

Did ANYBODY else see the Looking for a Fight with Dana where Clark told him he walks around at 210 and only cuts 5 pounds? Dana tells him he's gotta fight at 185 in the UFC. I keep hearing that but the kid doesn't look THAT small. He had to use the towel to weigh-in

[Rich Benjamins]

With ya on this Richy Rich!! Devin ITD works for me at +200...

I've got that one Jibby, and Clark by TKO. He doesn't seem like the submission type.

[firekillex]

Totally in agreement with you here Fire. I hope to see you on my thread again sometime soon. I miss our conversations about future fights and they've definitely been helpful to me in the past.

cool brotha, ill check it out.. ton of future fights to discuss as well, ill check some lines out today and see what i like

[JIBBBY]

I've got that one Jibby, and Clark by TKO. He doesn't seem like the submission type.

Agreed but at the time I laid the ITD bet down that prop was +200 and I think the KO prop was around +220 so I didn't wanna get greedy over +20 points just in case.. Clark is the KO type for sure..

[Ty$]

I really think Cannonier has a great chance to win and win by tko. Cutelaba will take too many shots and Cannonier is dropping from Heavyweight w nice crisp boxing and some underrated wrestling. There are other dogs I'm on but this one has the best value I feel. Good luck guys.

[JIBBBY]

My big play is Jorge Masvidal on this card.. Need Jorge to win big time for this event to be a remote success.. Yes I paid the - odds price..