UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor (Sat. Nov. 12, 2016) New York, NY

**capone1899** · 11-09-16, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Another ITD prop I nailed down at +300... Romero I think breaks Weidman and takes him out... Will be on Romero straight at +145 also for more like I normally do when not hedging......

I think Romero busts up Weidman, remember Weidman hasn't fought in a very long time and on the flip Romero has stayed very active..

This is a very scary fight for CW to take after a long lay off..

This is when you know someone is clueless and has no idea what they are doing. One of their reasons to bet a certain fighter is one guy in the fihgt is coming off a long layoff, except they both are coming off a layoff.

They literally fought on the same UFC 194 card last December and neither has fought since. How can you seriously not know that?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-09-16, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by capone1899

This is when you know someone is clueless and has no idea what they are doing. One of their reasons to bet a certain fighter is one guy in the fihgt is coming off a long layoff, except they both are coming off a layoff.

They literally fought on the same UFC 194 card last December and neither has fought since. How can you seriously not know that?

You're right that the last time that each of them fought was at UFC 194. Jibs is one of, if not the best, capper on this forum. Everybody makes mistakes, no need to go for the throat.

**JIBBBY** · 11-09-16, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by capone1899

This is when you know someone is clueless and has no idea what they are doing. One of their reasons to bet a certain fighter is one guy in the fihgt is coming off a long layoff, except they both are coming off a layoff.

They literally fought on the same UFC 194 card last December and neither has fought since. How can you seriously not know that?

Oh shit!!!! You got me there Capone as I forgot Romero was out that long, my bad, congrats!!!!.. Just really started capping all these fights today with crunching the stats, trends and records.. .. I'm just warming up cut me some slack..

I'm only human and not a machine..

What I was sure about when posting about this fight previously is that Romero has been the much more active fighter in the past 2 years as I mentioned in my previous posts.. I got that right...

Romero has fought twice the amount of fights then Weidman has in the last 2 years, Romero (6), Chris (3).. Also Weidman is coming off that rude beat down KO loss from Luke..

No guarantees Weidman isn't gonna relive that last fight loss in his mind once he tastes Romero's power.. He was mentally broken in his last fight against Luke Rockhold..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chris-Weidman-42804

In other words I'm kinda banking on Weidman perhaps being a mentally broken fighter and losing that eye of the tiger...

Now for Romero that beast is on a mission and a proclaimed soldier for God.. That's something you don't wanna mess with.. At least he believes that in his mind anyways.... Fighters can draw power when they think God has their back..

All Romero does is keep winning.. Romero is on a 7 fight UFC win streak and that's just damn hard to bet against at the UFC level IMO.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yoel-Romero-60762

My money is Romero and by KO...

Just too much stacking up in Romero's favor when I look at this match up. Romero is the dog at +155 and I think it's worth the try... Romero is a beast...

**Thrilla** · 11-09-16, 11:25 PM

**Thrilla** · 11-10-16, 12:02 PM

bj have you watched zahabi's prefight analysis on Mcgregor vs Eddie Alvarez^^. Somebody asked there if the fight would be similar to Alvarez vs Pettis. A so called fence war.
Well somehow I envision this fence war/ clinch battle /cage humping in Woodley doing it to Wonderboy. How do you see the possibility of this scenario. Woodley outwresteling Wonderboy and gaining points on Octagon control and win on decision?

**PaperTrail07** · 11-10-16, 01:50 PM

I agree on the Romero Lean....its great and all CW is from NY but Romero is no easy out....the Takedown wont be there and he will look somewhat lost in there

**PaperTrail07** · 11-10-16, 04:42 PM

I cant stop clicking this bet....

$117.00	$78.72	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/12/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Joanna Jedrzejczyk -410* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
				Pending	11/12/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Khabib Nurmagomedov -290* vs Michael Johnson

**PaperTrail07** · 11-10-16, 04:43 PM

Every Fuckn Time I log in......Oh this looks good LOL LOL...

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-10-16, 06:40 PM

great analysis by Zahabi in those videos!

**JIBBBY** · 11-10-16, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

I agree on the Romero Lean....its great and all CW is from NY but Romero is no easy out....the Takedown wont be there and he will look somewhat lost in there

If anything Romero will put Weidman on his back and start pounding on him.. Remember Romero was handling Jacare and managed to not get sub'd out on the ground.. Yoel came very close to knocking out Jacare as well early on.. Romero will have no fear grappling and man handling Chris Weidman much like Luke Rockhold did to Weidman...

Like I said I think this is a scary match up for Chris Weidman either standing or on the ground early on.. I will say this though the longer the fight drags on the better chance Chris Weidman will have to win just because of his youth and cardio advantage.. We've all seen Romero gas out late in a couple of fights and just hang on...

I don't think this fight makes it to the cards with that being said.. I hit these props as sort of safety hedge bets.. I think the odds are good enough to give it a try on both.. It's either gonna be Romero by KO early on or Weidman late me tinks..

$130.00

$100.00

Pending

11/12/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -130* vs Romero / Weidman goes 3 round distance

Small hedge just in case against my Romero straight...

$10.00

$117.50

Pending

11/12/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1325 Weidman wins in round 3 +1175* vs Any other result

**JIBBBY** · 11-10-16, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

I cant stop clicking this bet....

$117.00	$78.72	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/12/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Joanna Jedrzejczyk -410* vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
				Pending	11/12/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Khabib Nurmagomedov -290* vs Michael Johnson

I like it and it should cash...

I'm on both of those fighters also and both by decision.. GL Paper!!!

In tribute to your parlay play Paper I will take it up a notch.. I just hit this...

$60.30	$195.90	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/12/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1211 Jedrzejczyk wins by 5 round decision -118* vs Not Jedrzejczyk by 5 round decision
				Pending	11/12/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1711 Nurmagomedov wins by 3 round decision +130* vs Not Nurmagomedov by 3 round decision

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-10-16, 07:06 PM

^^ I think Joanna has a good chance of finishing her inside the distance, Jibbs

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-10-16, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

^^ I think Joanna has a good chance of finishing her inside the distance, Jibbs

Joanna -5.5 is $$$

**JIBBBY** · 11-10-16, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

^^ I think Joanna has a good chance of finishing her inside the distance, Jibbs

I know... Still these tiny chicks more then likely at this level typically go the distance.. Joanna could KO her but I'm not gonna bet on that. Leaning Decision more then likely..

I gotta go by the numbers and trends....

Joanna's last 2 fights were won by decision.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joann...zejczyk-101411

On the Flip -

Karolina has never been stopped and she really is a decision fighter herself.. She's tough and from what I've seen is hard to finish... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Karol...kiewicz-101401

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-10-16, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

I know... Still these tiny chicks more then likely at this level typically go the distance.. Joanna could KO her but I'm not gonna bet on that. Leaning Decision more then likely..

I gotta go by the numbers and trends....

Joanna's last 2 fights were won by decision.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Joann...zejczyk-101411

On the Flip -

Karolina has never been stopped and she really is a decision fighter herself.. She's tough and from what I've seen is hard to finish... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Karol...kiewicz-101401

I think there is better value on KO but she is most likely to win by decision.

**JIBBBY** · 11-10-16, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think there is better value on KO but she is most likely to win by decision.

Decent value... Could happen but I'm leaning towards it won't..

1241 Jedrzejczyk wins by TKO/KO

+280

**firekillex** · 11-10-16, 07:30 PM

JJ by tko/Ko prop is a beauty , she really doesn't like KK and her training videos have been focusing more on power I could see a round 3/4 finish here

also I see weidman finishing Romero in the 3rd possibly or a decision , Romero has the higher wrestling accolades but I like weidmans mma wrestling more and I think his cardio will overmatch Yoel here, I could see Yoel winning the first and weidman taking over from there , weidman did have neck surgery but he's a tough dude I don't think he'd accept a fight in his home,state if he wasn't 100% , the distance striking and cardio will win him this fight

khabib decision at + money is also solid

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-10-16, 07:49 PM

JJ wants to teach her a lesson

Karolina has eeked out multiple fights..she is out of her league here IMHO

**eligibletackle** · 11-10-16, 08:04 PM

All over Cerrone and Eddie

lean towards Miller, maybe a Miller by Dec prop. Have no problem rolling the dice on somebody that could grind out Alvez in his 155 debut.

the Boetsch/Natal line reeks. Doesn't Tim take Raphy's lunch money 6 days out of the week? 7 on some?

**JIBBBY** · 11-10-16, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

JJ wants to teach her a lesson

Wanting to teach a lesson and actually carrying it out are often easier said then done..

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-10-16, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Wanting to teach a lesson and actually carrying it out are often easier said then done..

obviously but JJ is far more skilled..Karolina has heart but she is going to get that pretty face busted up

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-10-16, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Decent value... Could happen but I'm leaning towards it won't..

1241 Jedrzejczyk wins by TKO/KO

+280

Hit it at the (+320) opener

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-11-16, 12:59 AM

Would not be surprised to see Yoel land a flying knee here. Let's go SOG!

**rsynweap84** · 11-11-16, 10:48 AM

F@ck you gastelum!!!! God you f@ckin crackwhore sum bitch! Hope this piece of shit dies in a car wreck off a f@acking cliff!!! GODAMNIT! Can't even hold it together for the last day I had to work before the fight, god exile this pile o fat shit!!!

**firekillex** · 11-11-16, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by rsynweap84

F@ck you gastelum!!!! God you f@ckin crackwhore sum bitch! Hope this piece of shit dies in a car wreck off a f@acking cliff!!! GODAMNIT! Can't even hold it together for the last day I had to work before the fight, god exile this pile o fat shit!!!

Lol... chill bud he just ruined his career most likely I think that's enough he doesn't need to die smh
basically he'll be forced to move to 185 for life now and he'll Never be top 5 there, sad because he was a dark horse in the 70 division but seems like he can't keep his weight low enough for some reason , super young to

gotta feel for cerrone here , probably begging for a short notice opponent but nobody would do that on a days notice , lawler then this damn sucks bigtime

**PaperTrail07** · 11-11-16, 11:45 AM

Saved me from typing it.....

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

^^ I think Joanna has a good chance of finishing her inside the distance, Jibbs

**PaperTrail07** · 11-11-16, 11:47 AM

It should be -700......

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

obviously but JJ is far more skilled..Karolina has heart but she is going to get that pretty face busted up

**UncleChael** · 11-11-16, 11:47 AM

Coupl3 days ago JJ drops from +240 itd to +200. 6 hours ago Alvarez drops by 15 cents. +125 ML now.

**PaperTrail07** · 11-11-16, 12:04 PM

$100.00	$152.14	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/12/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1262 Jedrzejczyk points handicap -5½ -195* vs Kowalkiewicz points handicap
				Pending	11/12/16 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1742 Nurmagomedov points handicap -3½ -150* vs Johnson points handicap

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-11-16, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

Lol... chill bud he just ruined his career most likely I think that's enough he doesn't need to die smh
basically he'll be forced to move to 185 for life now and he'll Never be top 5 there, sad because he was a dark horse in the 70 division but seems like he can't keep his weight low enough for some reason , super young to

gotta feel for cerrone here , probably begging for a short notice opponent but nobody would do that on a days notice , lawler then this damn sucks bigtime

Sucks that one of biggest bets of the night got cancelled. Oh well, hopefully they'll rebook it.

**firekillex** · 11-11-16, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Sucks that one of biggest bets of the night got cancelled. Oh well, hopefully they'll rebook it.

Matt brown vs cerrone UFC 206 about to Be announced .. imo much better fight

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-11-16, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

Matt brown vs cerrone UFC 206 about to Be announced .. imo much better fight

Would be pysched to see that one. Love both of these guys. Hope Cerrone isn't too big of a favorite.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-11-16, 01:33 PM

wow are you kidding me?

anyone that misses weight more than once should be cut!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 11-11-16, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

wow are you kidding me?

anyone that misses weight more than once should be cut!

Yeah fuckk that guy. If he had even showed up to the weigh-in or let Cerrone know, the fight would still be on.

**Sato** · 11-11-16, 01:57 PM

Have you guys seen Karolinas previous opponents? These women couldnt KO a pinata and she actually got away with keeping her hands low and eating shots from a very dangerous angle. The thing is shes very sloppy in her offense and defense. Joanna will try to finish KK but shes going to be very tough and hurt. By the end of it they will be gassed and the u. dec. goes to Joanna.