Bjpenn85 knows his UFC Fight Night 89: Thompson vs Macdonald

[bjpenn85]

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It's laughable that you think Palhares (0 KOs) and Rousey were better than their opponents everywhere. Both Meek and Holm had clear paths to victory, keeping the fight standing and using their power and distance to win by knockout or decision.

I think Alvarez does have a shot in this one. He has better offensive wrestling than Dos Anjos (3.9 takedown average compared to 2.64) and can use that wrestling to get the fight to the ground and do damage from top position. He has a tendency to get rocked but has only been KOed once in 31 fights. He has gone the 5-round distance a few times in Bellator so his cardio seems fine.

Dos Anjos has been on a tare despite facing elite competition but guys who are tough to finish have at least made it the distance with him (Diaz, Pettis). He has excellent striking and fights with a high pressure style. He has only been finished once by KO against Jeremy Stephens. He has good jitz and I highly doubt Alvarez will sub him (but you never know, he could catch RDA with a guillotine)

Here are a few props I like:
Fight Goes to Decision (+175) alternatively not Dos Anjos ITD (+124) if you believe in Alvarez's durability
Dos Anjos Unanimous Decision (+410)
Alvarez Decision (+610)
Alvarez Split Decision (+1390)

Good props. Im not sure you got my point regarding the underdogs.

[bjpenn85]

Great dog call!!! These are the fights that mean SUMTHING calling a dog when everyone was against. I'll be following you these beats fights!! War Alvarez!

Thanks mate!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good props. Im not sure you got my point regarding the underdogs.

What did you mean? Just a lot of underdogs have been winning recently?

[JIBBBY]

Fading Eddie big time against RDA.. Infact I think Eddie gets stopped.. Took this when the odds first came out...

Pending7/7/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1009 Dos Anjos wins inside distance -151* vs Not Dos Anjos inside distance

[bjpenn85]

What did you mean? Just a lot of underdogs have been winning recently?

Yes, underdogs appears to cash a lot more frequently than before. It may just be a gut feeling though.

This year is just absolutely insane. Leceister winning the premier league which is probably the biggest upsets happening in football ever besides Hellas wining the championships in 2004. Cleveland becomes the first team to ever take back a 3-1 lead, Donald Trump becomes republican candidate, and bisping over rockhold. Obviously underdogs will hit, of all sizes, but the frequency is just a head scratcher. Just a couple of days ago Chile beat Mexico 7-0 in the quarterfinale in copa america, just another normal day in 2016...

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1.5 units on Jon Jones decision @ 2.47 to win - 2.2 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3,5 units on Miesha Tate, Northcut @ 1.88 - 3.1 unit

[Hugo de Naranja]

Adding:

1.5 units on Jon Jones decision @ 2.47 to win - 2.2 units

I like it.

[Ty$]

Adding:

3,5 units on Miesha Tate, Northcut @ 1.88 - 3.1 unit

Play Sage at your own risk... The kid is an amateur

[JIBBBY]

Play Sage at your own risk... The kid is an amateur

Agreed Ty... Sage should rebound well in this fight but I am having a hard time playing him at these odds myself..

Sage is just a kid and he is fighting UFC caliber men now.. Not hand picked bums in lessor organizations anymore..

[bjpenn85]

Play Sage at your own risk... The kid is an amateur

Youre wrong. Who won a money on sage in his debut: I did.
Who defended northcutts victory and said he still would win easily in his next fight: I did
Who bashed northcut in his third fight for having a less than steller takedown defence and cashed big on Barberena: I did
Whos gonna win when the public inaccurately and hesitantly avoiding seeing value in the current line on northcut after his last loss: Well you know who by now.

Northcut is not inconsistent, like miller who suddenly lost against cecares. Northcutt is pretty f good against bad competition. Trevino is better than enrique, and northcutt molested trevino. So where is northcutts sealing you ask? Well its way beyond enriques level. Lower than rafael dos anjos? Sure. But hes not fighting dos anjos is he?

[bjpenn85]

Agreed Ty... Sage should rebound well in this fight but I am having a hard time playing him at these odds myself..

Sage is just a kid and he is fighting UFC caliber men now.. Not hand picked bums in lessor organizations anymore..

But remember, ufc is feeding this kid dead meat. + he has already beaten better competition. This is a decent spot to bet a fighter that is significantly better than his opponent while other bettors are like "nahh cant touch that line...hell no...thats too risky dawg".

[PaperTrail07]

If the USMNT won s Argentina -clearly bet against them-I would have just about lost it LOL...

Yes, underdogs appears to cash a lot more frequently than before. It may just be a gut feeling though.

This year is just absolutely insane. Leceister winning the premier league which is probably the biggest upsets happening in football ever besides Hellas wining the championships in 2004. Cleveland becomes the first team to ever take back a 3-1 lead, Donald Trump becomes republican candidate, and bisping over rockhold. Obviously underdogs will hit, of all sizes, but the frequency is just a head scratcher. Just a couple of days ago Chile beat Mexico 7-0 in the quarterfinale in copa america, just another normal day in 2016...

[Ty$]

Youre wrong. Who won a money on sage in his debut: I did.
Who defended northcutts victory and said he still would win easily in his next fight: I did
Who bashed northcut in his third fight for having a less than steller takedown defence and cashed big on Barberena: I did
Whos gonna win when the public inaccurately and hesitantly avoiding seeing value in the current line on northcut after his last loss: Well you know who by now.

Northcut is not inconsistent, like miller who suddenly lost against cecares. Northcutt is pretty f good against bad competition. Trevino is better than enrique, and northcutt molested trevino. So where is northcutts sealing you ask? Well its way beyond enriques level. Lower than rafael dos anjos? Sure. But hes not fighting dos anjos is he?

Hey I'm not arguing dude. Who banked when he got beat by Barberena? Me! Who picked Barberena by DEC over Warley? Me. Sage could win if he gets a good blitz right away but if it goes past 1 he's in trouble. Same with McGregor hes ok being the hammer but can't handle being the nail. No heart. Good luck ... I'll be on lots of dogs on 200 and Alvarez over RDA... I jus gave you props on that Jotko play bro !!!

[bjpenn85]

Hey I'm not arguing dude. Who banked when he got beat by Barberena? Me! Who picked Barberena by DEC over Warley? Me. Sage could win if he gets a good blitz right away but if it goes past 1 he's in trouble. Same with McGregor hes ok being the hammer but can't handle being the nail. No heart. Good luck ... I'll be on lots of dogs on 200 and Alvarez over RDA... I jus gave you props on that Jotko play bro !!!

This wasnt meant like a josh reply who more or less always got butthurt if you choose different than him. just joking around. Hammer analogy is pretty accurate. Its def a good point. Especially when you consider his over protective father follows northcutts footstep wherever he goes.