Bjpenn85 knows his UFC Fight Night 89: Thompson vs Macdonald

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3,1 units on T.Mcrory @ 1.5 to win - 1,5 units


If it was possible to know how Mcrory would do in a straight kickboxing/standup affair i would have been even more confident in this matchup as Jotko basically would have no real path to victory. Mcrory has only slightly longer reach, but a lot of power. Yet, the movement on the feet, strike selection etc is unknowns as his recent fights hasnt lasted very long.

Current line is not playable, i see value from -150 down to -200. After that i would be quite careful.There shouldnt be to many unknowns when betting a fighter at -200.

[bjpenn85]

As always:

100 dollar is 1 unit


Results since 7th. may 2016: +15.13 units AKA 1500 dollars

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

3 units on Mcrory/Markos, Lybarger over 2,5 rounds @ 1.85 to win - 2.55 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

86 Mcrory, no bet as this fight can end up going to a decision where jotkos has a decent chance to pull out the victory. What i dont like is that Mcrory doesnt necessarily get this fight to the canvas as Jotkos has a solid tdd. I also believe that Jotkos has already seen that grappling with Mcrory is a very bad idea. Josh Samman actually helped Mcrory winning as he presented Mcrory with the best possible outcome to find a home for a victory. Experience tells me that when a fighter wins in spectacular fashion, people take notice, and adjust. If this fight becomes a kickboxing matchup Jotkos assumedly better footwork may cause some trouble for Mcrory and from middle of the second round the fight i think the fight may shift in Jotkos favour. Mcrory looks like a man on a mission so he may get Jotkos out of there in the first round as Jotkos has shown to be a slow starter. He may also pressure Jotkos to be hesitant like Brad Scott did for 1.5 rounds or even outstrike him. But its hard to justify betting Mcrory at 1.5 I rather lay down a lower number with a chance of losing or possibly net 5 units.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2,5 units on Jotko @ 3 to win - 5 units

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

1 unit on Smile`n Sam Alvey @ 3.5 to win - 2.5 units

[xagonzx]

Only the 2 plays for this card bj?

[capone1899]

Laugh out f-ing loud!!! Suggests a bet, cancels it, then bets the other way within 2 days

I'll take "has no idea what he's doing for $800, Alex"

[bjpenn85]

Boom, right in the kisser. Had never seen that coming, but hey, thanks a lot Jotko!

[bjpenn85]

Result: + 4 units

Results since 7th. may 2016: +19.13 units AKA 1900 dollars

[bjpenn85]

And that was aaaaaaalll she wrote.

[Heyeverybody99]

Result: + 4 units

Results since 7th. may 2016: +19.13 units AKA 19000 dollars

You bet $1k a unit?

[bjpenn85]

100 dollar 1 unit.

[Heyeverybody99]

100 dollar 1 unit.

So you're up 19 hundred dollars.

[bjpenn85]

Thats correct. one 0 to much there.

[vokyruk]

Thompson at Even money tonight, $333 here

[bjpenn85]

Thompson at Even money tonight, $333 here

I have constantly gone back and forth, cant make up my mind. Rory more well rounded, thompson the overall better striker, but more vulnerable to get chewed up by jabs etc if he cant get his kicking game which also is very energy taxing. For every argument you place on any fighter theres a perfect counter argument. Really really hard fight to get an accurate read on. You try to bet based on practical evidence from prior fights, its just isnt possible to stack up styles and skills and make an accurate prediction, at least i cant. Even money isnt good when its more or less 50/50. Wheres the edge? Rory may be the only one having the antidote to beat thompson all other fighters may have trouble. For instance rory beat maia, which most fighters couldnt. So hes able to adopt to tricky styles, he may do so here as well.

[vokyruk]

I have constantly gone back and forth, cant make up my mind. Rory more well rounded, thompson the overall better striker, but more vulnerable to get chewed up by jabs etc if he cant get his kicking game which also is very energy taxing. For every argument you place on any fighter theres a perfect counter argument. Really really hard fight to get an accurate read on. You try to bet based on practical evidence from prior fights, its just isnt possible to stack up styles and skills and make an accurate prediction, at least i cant. Even money isnt good when its more or less 50/50. Wheres the edge? Rory may be the only one having the antidote to beat thompson all other fighters may have trouble. For instance rory beat maia, which most fighters couldnt. So hes able to adopt to tricky styles, he may do so here as well.

Just watch a preview one more time, Thompson is confident and Rory mumbles like a bitch, there is your edge, hopefully I'm right, gl bro!

[bjpenn85]

Just watch a preview one more time, Thompson is confident and Rory mumbles like a bitch, there is your edge, hopefully I'm right, gl bro!

Well, sometimes you can just go by that type of shit. Well done.

[bjpenn85]

Adding plays for UFC 200:

5 units on the answer Frankie Edgar @ 2 to win - 5 units
5 units on Mark Hunt to send Lesnar back to the WWE @ 1.6 units - 3 units

[vokyruk]

Well, sometimes you can just go by that type of shit. Well done.

[vokyruk]

Adding plays for UFC 200:

5 units on the answer Frankie Edgar @ 2 to win - 5 units
5 units on Mark Hunt to send Lesnar back to the WWE @ 1.6 units - 3 units

[xagonzx]

Just watch a preview one more time, Thompson is confident and Rory mumbles like a bitch, there is your edge, hopefully I'm right, gl bro!

You're the guy who said this was your first event watching, right? Rory Macdonald is a stoic killer bud, watch some of his fights before talking out your ass with insults.

[vokyruk]

You're the guy who said this was your first event watching, right? Rory Macdonald is a stoic killer bud, watch some of his fights before talking out your ass with insults.

I only watched this video, of course you cant based a bet outta that, but cmon...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-gJEY7tt5A

[vokyruk]

Also 33 year old vs 26 or so

[firekillex]

All these comments are literally 100% irrelevant to the fight lol
rory is a top 3 welterweight for years and he will be for plenty of more years to come
30 is your prime in fighting he hasn't even reached his full potential yet

please don't comment on fighters you know 0 about saying they're a bitch lol Rory Mac has wiped the floor with elite competition , he was up on the cards against Robbie lawler aka the champion before losing in round 5 ( one of the greatest fights in ufc history) and then he handled the guy fighting for the belt in Tyron Woodley lol... Hate when people who know nothing about mma comment like they know things at first I gave you the benefit of the doubt but you can't be boosting after tailing somebody's pick that was a 50/50 fight and think you know the mma game now lol use that logic you'll be in the negative $ 5 fight cards in blindly tailing people


good thing there's 6 cards coming up in July to

[xagonzx]

Also 33 year old vs 26 or so

Neither of those ages is old, and both are plenty experienced. Age wasn't a factor at all in this fight. I know you're new to the sport, so i would suggest reading up and watching a lot of video. Get UFC fightpass.

[bjpenn85]

Agreed. Age didnt mean anything in this fight. Statistically you start to discuss consequences of age typically for very young fighters, in terms of limited experience or old fighters having slowed down or the potential of having a bad chin. +35 have significantly higher TKO loss rate. In this fight both are more or less within their prime, so age was more or less completely irrelevant here.

[bjpenn85]

Adding UFC Fight Night 89 play:

1 unit on Eddie Alvarez @ 4.75 to win - 3.75 units.

Is Eddie Alvarez on the same level as Rafael Dos Anjos? Yes. Is he going to win? I cant really see any paths to victory for him to be honest. So, my rationale is that i dont think Alvarez should be this big of an underdog when he is basically a top 5 lightweight fighter. In addition, Alvarez has talked about this title shot for a long time. He is so hyped and so passionate about this chance that you know he will give his best. He will try to find Dos Anjos weakness and he can box and move and wrestle and be there the whole five rounds. Dos anjos has outwrestled Pettis, but we all know that Alvares also managed to do the same. Both fought Cerrone, and thats where you see the real difference between the to fighters. Alvarez doesnt have the same finishing capabilities as Dos Anjos which highlight who is the likely winner if the fight ends inside the distance. However, its really how Alvarez apply his strategy that will decide if he will win. I dont think he can straight out wrestle Dos anjos, but perhaps he can mix things up and make it interesting for five rounds. Dos Anjos is the likely winner as he should be better everywhere, but so where luke rockhold, marlos coenen, rousimar palhares and rhonda rousey...and so on.

[bjpenn85]

Laugh out f-ing loud!!! Suggests a bet, cancels it, then bets the other way within 2 days

I'll take "has no idea what he's doing for $800, Alex"

But somehow Jotkos KOs mcrory and nets us 5 units? The fact that i canceled my bets and told ya niggas why i did so, isnt that a strength? showcasing my ableness to adjust? The main reason why we all are still here, evolutionary speaking? Oh am sorry Capone for me having a gigantic brain. Sorry for earning you 19 units in a month, and not even a thank you...

[JIBBBY]

But somehow Jotkos KOs mcrory and nets us 5 units? The fact that i canceled my bets and told ya niggas why i did so, isnt that a strength? showcasing my ableness to adjust? The main reason why we all are still here, evolutionary speaking? Oh am sorry Capone for me having a gigantic brain. Sorry for earning you 19 units in a month, and not even a thank you...

I've changed my mind before, doesn't happen often.. Good adjustment anyways and call BJ on Jotko.. I didn't see that happening.. Jotko looked really good in that fight..

[bjpenn85]

I've changed my mind before, doesn't happen often.. Good adjustment anyways and call BJ on Jotko.. I didn't see that happening.. Jotko looked really good in that fight..

I didnt see that coming either, but i thought the line was off.

[Hugo de Naranja]

†

Adding UFC Fight Night 89 play:

1 unit on Eddie Alvarez @ 4.75 to win - 3.75 units.

Is Eddie Alvarez on the same level as Rafael Dos Anjos? Yes. Is he going to win? I cant really see any paths to victory for him to be honest. So, my rationale is that i dont think Alvarez should be this big of an underdog when he is basically a top 5 lightweight fighter. In addition, Alvarez has talked about this title shot for a long time. He is so hyped and so passionate about this chance that you know he will give his best. He will try to find Dos Anjos weakness and he can box and move and wrestle and be there the whole five rounds. Dos anjos has outwrestled Pettis, but we all know that Alvares also managed to do the same. Both fought Cerrone, and thats where you see the real difference between the to fighters. Alvarez doesnt have the same finishing capabilities as Dos Anjos which highlight who is the likely winner if the fight ends inside the distance. However, its really how Alvarez apply his strategy that will decide if he will win. I dont think he can straight out wrestle Dos anjos, but perhaps he can mix things up and make it interesting for five rounds. Dos Anjos is the likely winner as he should be better everywhere, but so where luke rockhold, marlos coenen, rousimar palhares and rhonda rousey...and so on.

It's laughable that you think Palhares (0 KOs) and Rousey were better than their opponents everywhere. Both Meek and Holm had clear paths to victory, keeping the fight standing and using their power and distance to win by knockout or decision.

I think Alvarez does have a shot in this one. He has better offensive wrestling than Dos Anjos (3.9 takedown average compared to 2.64) and can use that wrestling to get the fight to the ground and do damage from top position. He has a tendency to get rocked but has only been KOed once in 31 fights. He has gone the 5-round distance a few times in Bellator so his cardio seems fine.

Dos Anjos has been on a tare despite facing elite competition but guys who are tough to finish have at least made it the distance with him (Diaz, Pettis). He has excellent striking and fights with a high pressure style. He has only been finished once by KO against Jeremy Stephens. He has good jitz and I highly doubt Alvarez will sub him (but you never know, he could catch RDA with a guillotine)

Here are a few props I like:
Fight Goes to Decision (+175) alternatively not Dos Anjos ITD (+124) if you believe in Alvarez's durability
Dos Anjos Unanimous Decision (+410)
Alvarez Decision (+610)
Alvarez Split Decision (+1390)

[Ty$]

But somehow Jotkos KOs mcrory and nets us 5 units? The fact that i canceled my bets and told ya niggas why i did so, isnt that a strength? showcasing my ableness to adjust? The main reason why we all are still here, evolutionary speaking? Oh am sorry Capone for me having a gigantic brain. Sorry for earning you 19 units in a month, and not even a thank you...

Great dog call!!! These are the fights that mean SUMTHING calling a dog when everyone was against. I'll be following you these next fights!! War Alvarez!

[Hugo de Naranja]

He is a real Philly fighter which I love about him. Kid's got a lot of heart