UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux (April 23, 2016)

[JC2008]

I think Whittaker is in a let-down situation here after beating Hall at home. Dog or nothing for me. Natal is no pushover either, and on a 4-fight win streak as well...

[UncleChael]

Robert Whittaker is going to smash him on the feet.

[JC2008]

Robert Whittaker is going to smash him on the feet.

Most likely.

[JIBBBY]

^^ My Canadian friends Natal is defensively sneaky standing.. He somehow finds ways to avoid the big punches, that's why he's won his last 4 fights..

Dog might bark in this one gents.. Natal will have to be at his best and mix it up though...

[JC2008]

^^ My Canadian friends Natal is defensively sneaky standing.. He somehow finds ways to avoid the big punches, that's why he's won his last 4 fights..

Dog might bark in this one gents.. Natal will have to be at his best and mix it up though...

Natal winning a decision wouldn't be surprising. Not after some of the things we've seen this past year...

[JIBBBY]

I could possibly see Natal maybe winning by decision.. I may still hit this prop below for small.. Both of these fighters have gone to decision a bunch of times in recent fights... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-Natal-13968

1307 Natal wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_122" size="4"> +345

Edit - Haha, JC we thinking the same.. I just saw your post above when I entered this one.. LOL..

[HurlSweatPants]

Starting from the bottom, anyone see any value on either the Kevin Lee pick, or the O/U? Thinking about betting the Over and taking the chalk and also using it in a Parlay with the bigger fights such as JBJ or MM.

[JC2008]

I could possibly see Natal maybe winning by decision.. I may still hit this prop below for small.. Both of these fighters have gone to decision a bunch of times in recent fights... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rafael-Natal-13968

1307 Natal wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_122" size="4"> +345

Edit - Haha, JC we thinking the same.. I just saw your post above when I entered this one.. LOL..

I just can't shake some of the robberies we've seen over the last year... I understand the judges have a different view than us who are watching on TV but still, there have been blatant robberies... An accomplished fighter winning one would not be surprising. And you never know... someone can always have an 'off night.' Whittaker probably does win, but am I laying 3-to-1? Absolutely not. If I'm gonna lay 3-to-1 it will be on Roman Gonzalez to win by KO/TKO/DQ at -300 against Mcwilliams Arroyo tomorrow night on HBO.

[JIBBBY]

Starting from the bottom, anyone see any value on either the Kevin Lee pick, or the O/U? Thinking about betting the Over and taking the chalk and also using it in a Parlay with the bigger fights such as JBJ or MM.

This how I think the fight will go... No hedge

Fight #1 -

$120.00

$107.10

Pending

4/23/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2111 Lee wins by 3 round decision -112* <small>vs</small> Not Lee by 3 round decision

[Shagdogy]

Personally I don't see an angle in the East fight....I just don't know ANYTHING about east and Harris really hasn't been great.....If I had to lean I'd go east too...probably keeps it standing and will be much faster---

I'm big on Harris. Go back and watch East's fights. They're easily available online. His opponents have been complete trash and he doesn't finish them convincingly. Basically he just sloppily trades with them until they gas so bad they become stationary punching bags (which usually takes about 1min because they're in horrid shape) and then East beats on them with about 40 punches until they fall over. He has crap power for a HW, and he has fought pretty much no one with even a little bit of cardio. Harris should be his biggest competition by far. Not to mention, Harris has experienced the Octagon before, and East will be a first timer so that may affect his cardio even more.

That said, it's a heavyweight fight and the UFC seems to have some intrigue built around East, so I can't go too big. Harris also looked a little softer than usual at weigh ins. Still, I'm sticking with him. Just spend 30mins watching Easts fights. There's almost no way you're impressed.

[LBfightlife]

Doesn't anyone see any value in anyone else on the card?

Pettis Jr? His guy was terrified at weigh ins.. he should win right?

Also domonique Steele , he looked like a beast when I saw him fight last, and his energy was really good at the weigh ins.

Kevin Lee was completely jacked and shredded and his opponent looked really soft. He seems like he could be another lock no?

Anyone seeing anything else? Jibby has me trippin with all these underdog plays

[JC2008]

- I've got to believe Sergio Pettis is living off his brother and surname. If I touch that (And I probably won't, as my priority is the HBO Boxing card tomorrow...), my play would have to be Kalades +180.

[GunShard]

I was listening to a MMA podcast and made a good argument that Cejudo has not fought a top level fighter like Benevidez and Dodson. Yet he is a getting a title fight too soon against Johnson. Johnson is definitely one of the locks in this fight card.

[mirinquads]

Sergio is better technically than Pettis, but he get's complacent and has a glass chin. Though, Kelades isn't really the type to capitalize, he doesnt have powerful hands and is mostly a grappler. Should be an easy decision for Pettis.

[Shagdogy]

Also domonique Steele , he looked like a beast when I saw him fight last, and his energy was really good at the weigh ins.

Kevin Lee was completely jacked and shredded and his opponent looked really soft. He seems like he could be another lock no?

Steele has cardio and some okay wrestling but if he's not successful with takedowns he's gonna get beat up.

I agree that after seeing weigh ins Lee looked like he could be too much for Efrain. Efrain not only looked much softer but his face was drawn in. Lee looked cut, but energetic and healthy.

[JC2008]

Sergio is better technically than Pettis, but he get's complacent and has a glass chin. Though, Kelades isn't really the type to capitalize, he doesnt have powerful hands and is mostly a grappler. Should be an easy decision for Pettis.

You don't see any way Kelades grapples his way to a decision?

[PaperTrail07]

Doing that now. Thanks shag. And g l

I'm big on Harris. Go back and watch East's fights. They're easily available online. His opponents have been complete trash and he doesn't finish them convincingly. Basically he just sloppily trades with them until they gas so bad they become stationary punching bags (which usually takes about 1min because they're in horrid shape) and then East beats on them with about 40 punches until they fall over. He has crap power for a HW, and he has fought pretty much no one with even a little bit of cardio. Harris should be his biggest competition by far. Not to mention, Harris has experienced the Octagon before, and East will be a first timer so that may affect his cardio even more.

That said, it's a heavyweight fight and the UFC seems to have some intrigue built around East, so I can't go too big. Harris also looked a little softer than usual at weigh ins. Still, I'm sticking with him. Just spend 30mins watching Easts fights. There's almost no way you're impressed.

[mirinquads]

You don't see any way Kelades grapples his way to a decision?

Well, like I said.. Pettis gasses and get's complacent.. So he would have to get him out of there in the third, or just hustle the last two rounds through pure grit... It's possible, Kelades is extremely hard to put away and has major heart.

[Thrilla]

This how I think the fight will go... No hedge

Fight #1 -

$120.00

$107.10

Pending

4/23/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2111 Lee wins by 3 round decision -112* <small>vs</small> Not Lee by 3 round decision

Why? Both have sick ground skills high chance for sub. Im looking at Escudero win by sub as small prop. Who has more strength you think? Also big difference in age and experience.

[Shagdogy]

Doing that now. Thanks shag. And g l

Let me know what you think.

[UncleChael]

5. Vick + Jones = -120
6. Andre Fili = +110
7. Harris + Hester + Efrain = +1832 , .3 unit

[Shagdogy]

5. Vick + Jones = -120
6. Andre Fili = +110
7. Harris + Hester + Efrain = +1832 , .3 unit

I think I'm with you on Fili. Counting on a decently even fight on feet but takedowns to be the difference.

What were picks 1-4?

[UncleChael]

I think I'm with you on Fili. Counting on a decently even fight on feet but takedowns to be the difference.

What were picks 1-4?

1. Cavs ML + Spurs ML + Jonny Bones Jones = +100
2. San Jose at Los Angeles. San Jose +115 ML.
3. Jon Jones + Robert Whittaker + Mighty Mouse = at -112
play 4 was a hockey parlay bet but lost.
5. Vick + Jones = -120
6. Andre Fili = +110
7. Harris + Hester + Efrain = +1832 , .3 unit
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lsJLLEwUYZM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[JIBBBY]

Why? Both have sick ground skills high chance for sub. Im looking at Escudero win by sub as small prop. Who has more strength you think? Also big difference in age and experience.

I see Kevin grinding on Efrain for most of this fight and winning on points.. Lay and pray from the top position, and or being more active when standing and striking....

Both fighters are very hard to finish standing or on the ground, both typically go to decision because neither fighter has any kind of KO power, both are not easily sub'd out so the ground submission games probably wash each other out.... Lee is the better wrestler so he should maintain top position when the fight does hit the ground.

Lee has gone to decision in 4 of his last 6 fights... Escudero has gone to decision in 9 of his last 11 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Efrain-Escudero-16555

I guess there is a slim chance Kevin Lee could get the sub win but I'm thinking he doesn't... So I'm picking Lee by decision..

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Efrain
Escudero
"Hecho en México"
vs
Kevin
Lee
"The Motown Phenom"

MEXICO
Country
USA

25-10-0
Record
11-2-0

12%
KO/TKO
0%

52%
SUB
45%

36%
DEC
45%

[shabang]

1. Cavs ML + Spurs ML + Jonny Bones Jones = +100
2. San Jose at Los Angeles. San Jose +115 ML.
3. Jon Jones + Robert Whittaker + Mighty Mouse = at -112
play 4 was a hockey parlay bet but lost.
5. Vick + Jones = -120
6. Andre Fili = +110
7. Harris + Hester + Efrain = +1832 , .3 unit
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lsJLLEwUYZM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

I see Kevin grinding on Efrain for most of this fight and winning on points.. Lay and pray from the top position..

Both fighters are very hard to finish standing or on the ground, both typically go to decision because neither fighter has any kind of KO power, both are not easily sub'd out so the ground submission games probably wash each other out....

Lee has gone to decision in 4 of his last 6 fights... Escudero has gone to decision in 9 of his last 11 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Efrain-Escudero-16555

I guess there is a slim chance Kevin Lee could get the sub win but I'm thinking he doesn't... So I'm picking Lee by decision..

I didn't have time to do my research so you guys better bring your fukin A game tonight.. I'll be tailing quite a bit Let's have a great day making money!

[HurlSweatPants]

I see Kevin grinding on Efrain for most of this fight and winning on points.. Lay and pray from the top position, and or being more active when standing and striking....

Both fighters are very hard to finish standing or on the ground, both typically go to decision because neither fighter has any kind of KO power, both are not easily sub'd out so the ground submission games probably wash each other out.... Lee is the better wrestler so he should maintain top position when the fight does hit the ground.

Lee has gone to decision in 4 of his last 6 fights... Escudero has gone to decision in 9 of his last 11 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Efrain-Escudero-16555

I guess there is a slim chance Kevin Lee could get the sub win but I'm thinking he doesn't... So I'm picking Lee by decision..

Yeah I went with Lee DEC prop and and small on Lee sub. I want to play de Lima straight up but might wait closer to fight time because his line keeps getting closer to even.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah I went with Lee DEC prop and and small on Lee sub. I want to play de Lima straight up but might wait closer to fight time because his line keeps getting closer to even.

I'm on De Lima by KO, and also went with the U1.5 in that fight..

Fight #2 -

$70.00

$112.00

Pending

4/23/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2033 Rogerio de Lima wins by TKO/KO +160* <small>vs</small> Any other result

$110.00

$100.00

Pending

4/23/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2001 Clint Hester/Marcos Rogerio de Lima Under 1½ -110*

[JIBBBY]

Marcos
Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
vs
Clint
Hester
"Headbussa"

BRAZIL
Country
USA

13-4-1
Record
11-5-0

85% (De LIMA)
KO/TKO
73% (Hester)

8%
SUB
0%

8%
DEC
27%

[UncleChael]

8. Clint Hester -110 ML.
9. Harris +162 ITD

[proposition joe]

Steele/Roberts u2.5 -115 is my favorite play tonight, as well as JJ/OSP under 2.5 -200.

Also on Whittker/Nadal u2.5, Pettis -170 medium , small on Harris, Hester, Esparza.

Gl all.

[Thrilla]

My man Chris, usually has nice feed on the card. Yes he's a nerd

[JIBBBY]

Steele/Roberts u2.5 -115 is my favorite play tonight, as well as JJ/OSP under 2.5 -200.

Also on Whittker/Nadal u2.5, Pettis -170 medium , small on Harris, Hester, Esparza.

Gl all.

I also like that Steele/Roberts U2.5 at -140 as I hit that a few days ago.. Nice grab at -115 by the way...

That's my only play on that fight.. GL!!! $140 to win $100...

[LBfightlife]

Well, like I said.. Pettis gasses and get's complacent.. So he would have to get him out of there in the third, or just hustle the last two rounds through pure grit... It's possible, Kelades is extremely hard to put away and has major heart.

Kelades looked filled with fear, terrified at the weigh ins imo.

[HurlSweatPants]

My man Chris, usually has nice feed on the card. Yes he's a nerd

Good stuff. The fact that he was a nerd didn't bother me, that lower hanging uneven picture did though.

[Mxs1332]

Rewatched the weigh ins. Jones is ready to go. All i can say is that i hope it goes longer than the first rnd to maximize my profits.

Feel bad for you OSP. Huge props for accepting the fight on 11 days notice