Jibby how in the world were you so confident in jon over danial, but then bet a far less skilled opponete at basically the same number, makes absolutly no sense what so ever.
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^^ You guys ask too many questions and are now making me show my hand early.... Ok let me make clear sense with my bets for (The Calculator).. This is how I played each fight so far.. I'm pulling for the dogs to win but have back up...
Might Mouse vs Henry
$100.00 $350.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo +350* <small>vs</small> Demetrious Johnson hedge$30.00 $484.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1137 Cejudo wins by TKO/KO +1615* <small>vs</small> Any other result
$150.00 $180.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1147 Johnson wins by 5 rd unanimous decision +120* <small>vs</small> Any other result $110.00 $100.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Johnson wins by 5 round decision -110* <small>vs</small> Not Johnson by 5 round decision
OSP VS JJ -
$100.00 $425.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ovince Saint Preux +425* <small>vs</small> Jon Jones hedge$20.00 $125.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Saint Preux wins by TKO/KO +625* <small>vs</small> Any other result
$150.00 $195.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Jones wins by TKO/KO +130* <small>vs</small> Any other result
Whittiker vs Natal -
hedge$137.30 $391.30 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Rafael Natal +285* <small>vs</small> Robert Whittaker
$100.00 $225.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1321 Whittaker wins in round 1 +225* <small>vs</small> Any other result $60.00 $57.10 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1333 Whittaker wins by TKO/KO -105* <small>vs</small> Any other result
Barboza vs Pettis -
hedge$250.00 $387.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Edson Barboza +155* <small>vs</small> Anthony Pettis
$100.00 $260.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1233 Pettis wins by TKO/KO +260* <small>vs</small> Any other result
Fili vs Rod -
No hedge$100.00 $130.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Andre Fili +130* <small>vs</small> Yair Rodriguez Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-18-16, 02:16 PM.Comment -
Why jon jones ko, it's probable a 50 50 chance between sub or ko, I lean to the sub, but I guess he could gnp his ass with the elbows of death, tough choice between sub or ko. I prefer a 2nd round finish prop at over 3 to 1 odds., with the short notice and his cardio issues I find it hard to believe this gets out the 2nd, expecially if he takes him down a couple times in the 1st, if he stands in the 1st, maybe he can last till early 3rd, big weight cut also.^^ You guys ask too many questions and are now making me show my hand early.... Ok let me make clear sense with my bets for (The Calculator).. This is how I played each fight so far.. I'm pulling for the dogs to win but have back up...
Might Mouse vs Henry
$100.00 $350.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Henry Cejudo +350* <small>vs</small> Demetrious Johnson hedge$30.00 $484.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1137 Cejudo wins by TKO/KO +1615* <small>vs</small> Any other result
$150.00 $180.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1147 Johnson wins by 5 rd unanimous decision +120* <small>vs</small> Any other result $110.00 $100.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1111 Johnson wins by 5 round decision -110* <small>vs</small> Not Johnson by 5 round decision
OSP VS JJ -
$100.00 $425.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ovince Saint Preux +425* <small>vs</small> Jon Jones hedge$20.00 $125.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Saint Preux wins by TKO/KO +625* <small>vs</small> Any other result
$150.00 $195.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1041 Jones wins by TKO/KO +130* <small>vs</small> Any other result
Whittiker vs Natal -
hedge$137.30 $391.30 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Rafael Natal +285* <small>vs</small> Robert Whittaker
$100.00 $225.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1321 Whittaker wins in round 1 +225* <small>vs</small> Any other result $60.00 $57.10 Pending 4/23/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1333 Whittaker wins by TKO/KO -105* <small>vs</small> Any other result
Barboza vs Pettis -
hedge$250.00 $387.50 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1201 Edson Barboza +155* <small>vs</small> Anthony Pettis
$100.00 $260.00 Pending 4/23/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1233 Pettis wins by TKO/KO +260* <small>vs</small> Any other result
Fili vs Rod -
No hedge$100.00 $130.00 Pending 4/23/16 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Andre Fili +130* <small>vs</small> Yair Rodriguez Comment -
It's Bones first time in the cage in over a year, it's not that unlikely (considering it'll be another 5 to 6 months after this until he has his next cage date) that he'd want to shake out some of that rust for a few,get timing and what not down. Could easily see 2-3 rounds of him toying with OSP like he did Rashad where he was dominating from bell one to the last, but never stepped on it to put him away.
More likely we see a ''Vitor'' type fight then some Chael Sonnen bushwacking.
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Btw, Barboza is a better allround striker than Pettis, Pettis has great kicks and good variety but his hands have never been good (and it still sucks which was evident in the Alvarez fight)
Barboza has better hands, and i'd say he kicks faster aswell, and if you look at output per minute he has higher % than Pettis aswell.
And Baldie, answer me this when has Pettis ever been an aggressive fighter that puts heavy pressure on opponents? (which is how all Barboza's ufc losses have come)Last edited by plekz; 04-18-16, 04:19 PM.Comment -
A Bones, MM, Whitaker parlay is almost even money. Can't wait for the prelim lines to come out.Comment -
Don't question my prop play son.. I have not lost a UFC event playing props this year. Year to date - Killed 3 events, washed out on 2 and won a little chunk on the last one.. I either lose a little change or break even or I win big.. I'm having a good year so far in MMA and need to keep it up..
If Daruish and Bambrose would have cashed I would have done really well on the last card.. Also bet Rose wrong and took a hit hedging ITD on that bald bitch.... Came very close to having a big night..
THE KO PROP - JJ coming back after this long lay off probably gets the pound out and not sub out on the ground to make a statement, let's just call it a hunch if that is how the fight must end..... OSP I don't think can make the 5 rounds coming in on short notice..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-18-16, 05:24 PM.Comment -
Lol my bad, my badDon't question my prop play son.. I have not lost a UFC event playing props this year. Year to date - Killed 3 events, washed out on 2 and won a little chunk on the last one.. I either lose a little change or break even or I win big.. I'm having a good year so far in MMA and need to keep it up..
If Daruish and Bambrose would have cashed I would have done really well on the last card.. Also bet Rose wrong and took a hit hedging on that bald bitch.... Came very close to having a big night..
THE KO PROP - JJ coming back after this long lay off probably gets the pound out and not sub out on the ground to make a statement, let's just call it a hunch if that is how the fight must end.....
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You did call this early on.. Just looked thru the thread now.. Good call maybe Ty..
OSP still has a chance early on before he gasses out.. OSP can bang when fresh... JJ timing could be off and he could catch one on the chin if not careful.. I think this fight ends by KO one way or the other..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-18-16, 07:43 PM.Comment -
Is anyone worried about Jones winning by submission? We've seen OSP lose by submission before vs Glover, and Jones has finished by sub before.Comment -
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JJ got all his submission wins early on in his career, he hasn't had a submission win since 2012.. He leans more on striking, or top ground and pound.. He been very successful against southies standing too.. JJ has 9 wins by KO and 6 wins by Submission.. Look for yourself. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jon-Jones-27944
Besides that OSP has only been tapped out one time in his 7 losses as pro fighter.. Numbers don't lie... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ovince-St-Preux-38842
If OSP is to win this fight he's gotta catch JJ early on with something otherwise he'll probably get dropped himself when he gasses out late in the fight...
BLACK ON BLACK crime coming up in this scrap!!
Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-18-16, 07:38 PM.Comment -
Hello;
I think Jones is going to lose.
Everything in is life was reckless and everything was based on the assumption that no matter what, he would get the better out of every situation. This is perfect for narcissism and omnipotence feelings.
With all this changing in is life, is going to be much more organized, structured and disciplined which leads me to the best thing Jones does: Adjusting to his opponent in a creative way on the fight. He evaluates strenght, range, movement, speed and adjusts without advice of Greg and Mike. Don´t get me wrong, OSP is very well studied, tendencies and everything by Jackson, but he adjusts on a very creative way. If he is clean, organized, disciplined, he is not going to be so reckless and mentally flexible. He will have trouble with OSP range, strenght, unorthodox strinking and stance and will struggle finding the adjustments needed.
Mark my words.
OSP for the upset.Comment -
JJ got all his submission wins early on in his career, he hasn't had a submission win since 2012.. He leans more on striking, or top ground and pound.. He been very successful against southies standing too.. JJ has 9 wins by KO and 6 wins by Submission.. Look for yourself. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jon-Jones-27944
Besides that OSP has only been tapped out one time in his 7 losses as pro fighter.. Numbers don't lie... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ovince-St-Preux-38842
If OSP is to win this fight he's gotta catch JJ early on with something otherwise he'll probably get dropped himself when he gasses out late in the fight...
BLACK ON BLACK crime coming up in this scrap!!
Was that mazaggati or yamasaki letting shogun eat 13 unanswered punches to the kisser? COME ON MAN!Comment -
Yea or Jon Jones has been focused on nothing but improving as a fighter when the rest of his life is out of control. That's what martial artists do, we train more when shit hits the fan. Its one of the only things that makes you feel better. Is ripping it in the gym with your team who is also a bunch of killers and blow off some steam.
I am very confident Jon Jones will win; anything can happen, but hes just on another level.Comment -
Jibbby you are really hitting the dogs here, interesting strategy. You've got balls mayne.. Interesting way to play it..
That said, (and correct me if I am wrong) but it looks like your hedges seem to be the most probable outcome, which will pay out a bit while also covering your dog plays? Is that correct? As you know I am kindaknew at this.
Also you are really feeling Touchie Filie over Yair? Care to explain why? Camp? Something you see? Yair has quite the hype train around him at the moment.Comment -
My Updated Card:
Demetrious Johnson Wins in Round 5 +2050 $250 to win $5,125
Demetrious Johnson wins in round 5 +1900 $250 to win $4750 1.67 units to win 33 units
Demetrious Johnson Wins in Round 4 +1650 $500 to win $8,250 1.67 units to win 27.5 units
Demetrious Johnson Wins by 5th round Unanimous Decision +145 $500 to win $725.00 1.67 units to win 2.5 units
Parlay
Demetrious Johnson (multiple numbers)
Jon jones (multiple number)
$8000 to win $3225.40 26.67 Units to win 10.67 units
Jon Jones -725 $4000 to win $551.72
Jon jones -460 $2300 to win $500 21 Units to win 3.5 units
Parlay:
Lyoto Machida -335 Canceled
Demetrious Johnson -420 Pending
Risking $1250 4 units to win 1 unit
Robert Whittaker -350 risking $875
Robert Whittaker -320 Risking $2400 11 units
Anthony Pettis -150 Risking $1500 5 units
Whittaker inside the distance -110/-120/-140 Risking $370 to win $300 1.2 units
Robert Whittaker finishes in the 1st +225 $100 0.33 units
Robert Whittaker wins by ko tko -110 $110 0.33 units
Pettis inside the distance +155 risking $100 to win $155 0.33 units
Pettis wins by sub +400 $100 0.33 units
Pettis wins in the 1st +325 $100 0.33 units
Jon Jones finishes in the 2nd +325 $100 0.33 units
Jon Jones finishes in the 3rd +675 $25
Parlay:
Johnson (scorecards = no action) -612
Pettis (scorecards = no action) -275
Whittaker (scorecards = no action) -826
Risking $687.50 2.2 unitsLast edited by JoshKnows46; 04-19-16, 07:46 AM.Comment -
This is the MOST I've ever risked on a card, and we not done yet, we gonna murder this card boys...2nd most was on the holloway/dillashaw/rousey parlay OVER bethe/barao/olivera, and dillashaw/rousey parlay OVER Betha/barao, last year.Comment -
how many people make $1,000 in 25 minutes, a day, a week at their everyday jobs?....i have no problem letting the books hold the money on bets like this, because i know i'll be getting it back with interest, a bank doesn't create that interest in a week off that amount of money...you got to change your mentality...i don't recomend this for every -500 favorite, obviously that would not be profitable, expecially to a inexperience handicapper, its rare occasions like this, those few times that the -500 favorite is worth the price plus some,....its basically buying money, jon jones has every single advantage, you'll never find a safer bet then this one....they can hold that 14,300 i have on jones and mighty mouse, because i'm getting it back plus $4,300, and it doesn't matter how much money you have, according to your unit, you should also have 57 units invested to get back 14. doesn't matter if your unit is 10 dollars, 25, 50, or 100, 300, 500, you should have money on these guys straight, because straight is a guarantee, straight is a lock.Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-19-16, 10:13 AM.Comment -
^^ Well Josh you're risking alot to win a little again with just one play.. I hate doing that in MMA, but you'll probably win... I risk alot but I have it spread out over 30 bets and 12 fights.. That reduces my risk of losing big with each UFC event..
You pretty much lose this card if JJ doesn't win.. It comes down to that one fight for you based on your betting structure....
Best of luck chief.. I'll take JJ by KO but I'd rather have OSP win out right and send JJ back into a cocaine binge after the loss...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-19-16, 10:47 AM.Comment -
[QUOTE=JIBBBY;25598431]^^ Well Josh you're risking alot to win a little again.. I hate doing that in MMA, but you'll probably win... I risk alot but I have it spread out over 30 bets and 12 fights.. That reduces my risk of the losing big greatly..
You pretty much lose this card if JJ doesn't win.. It comes down to that one fight for you based on your betting structure....
Best of luck chief.. I'll take JJ by KO but I'd rather have OSP win out right and send JJ back into a cocaine binge after the loss...[/QUOTE
jibby i hate to say it, but you couldnt find value if it kicked you in the ass....jon could relistically be a -4000 point favorite here, but that wouldnt create even action, no it wouldnt....JON Jones can win by dec if he wants, your money is at risk, my money isnt at risk, the ko has a 45 percent chances, just as much as the sub has a 45 percent chance, dec has a 9.9 percent chance, JON Jones has a 99.9% chance, osp has a 0.01 percent chance, out of 5000 fights he might win 5 times, but guess what, we bet on 1 fight, and 1 fight only. its no big deal broski, lay the juie and collect your money, oppurtunitys like this don't present themselves often...best of luck as well.Comment -
Yep woke up one morning and just thought let's play the dogs and take advantage of the heavy odds in this event. Hedge with likely props to hit with the favorites for profit as well.
I just feel the dogs have a better chance of hitting then most think in this event, odds are fat on the dogs too..
My thinking on the dog play with the main card -
- Henry Cejudo is undefeated in his MMA career, he really looks like he's improving with every fight, he's Olympic Gold Medalist like DC with a strong will to win.. Hard to bet against that..
- JJ has been out of the cage for a year and half now and is fighting a guy in OSP that has been very active and fighting some of the best in the division recently.. OSP might be game..
- Natal won 4 fights in a row and finds ways to win when he really shouldn't... He's got the RDA factor going for him.. Ya just never know as Whittiker is beatable as he lost to both Wonderboy and Court McGee.. If McGee can beat him maybe Natal can too..
- Touchie FIli has 18 pro fights compared to just 6 for Yair.. Yair hasn't really fought anyone really good yet either IMO.. Not completely sold on Yair just yet with only a hand full of pro fights under his belt.. I give Fili a decent chance as the dog going in...
- Barboza is always game and has fought top competition lately, Pettis lost 2 in row and will be the smaller man....Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-19-16, 10:54 AM.Comment -
*Originally Posted by*Ty$*
So if I put more on jones how should I do it? Straight or ITD or KO prop... And yeah bro I don't make the cash you do at my everyday job
None of the money I bet I worked for, I stared betting 25 dollars per unit with a 2,500 bankroll, and worked my way to this point, I could lose a $30,000 bankroll 10× over and still be playing with house money obviously that will not happen even once, it's possible for everyone, if your mentally equipped to deal with wins and loses, and not go outside your money managment, 95 percent of gamblers arent. I've already doubled my bankroll once this year, I will double it atleast twice more before the end of the year, and you can do the same with your bankroll, regardless of its size if you follow what I do.Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-19-16, 11:54 AM.Comment -
Henry has never been in a. 5 round fight and has cardio and weight issues, he has a 0.01 percent chance just as osp. I cringe that you put even one cent on either of those guys, you coulda gave that money to charity or put it on mighty mouse 4th and 5th round finish. Sicking Waste of money, this is just as bad as when you bet brazilian cowboy over cerrone, brazilian cowboy also only had 0.01 percent chance. There's a time and place to bet dogs, this is neither the time nor the place, like when I bet brain Barbara over Northcutt for 1,000, or when I bet werdum over cain, or alverez over pettis, there's much better dogs out there with much higher probability then these two, you would need a freak injury, self inflicated like when jones broke his toe, to win either of these bets.Last edited by JoshKnows46; 04-19-16, 12:45 PM.Comment -
