JoshKnows UFC 195 Winners

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Tumenov wins by TKO/KO +110 risking $300 to win $330

[JoshKnows46]

I believe Tumenov is the better counter fighter with the better cardio. It doesn help Larkin that he is the one with the weak chin as well. The fight may be close, but i think Tumenov will have more confidence, take the center of the cage and pressure Larkin. Santiago P. did well pressuring Larkin but for some reason got lazy and kept his hands way to low when Larkin came inside. It wasnt like Larkin outclassed Santiago with slick combination, body body head, spinning kicks etc. I can easily understand one will be hesitant playing tumenov against another good striker, but just see how he solved the puzzle against Jouban. He had no problems, and he found a way to win easily.

agree with everything you said, down to the break down of the santiago fight, but larkin doesn't have a weak chin, i actually believe the opposite, larkin has a very nice chin( not as solid as tumenov's chin), but he is open to getting hit however, and Tumernov has the power to put him to sleep and he will make him go nite nite before the final bell. Jouban on the other hand, is a better striker than larkin, but he does in fact have a weak chin, but he has good recovery time.

[JoshKnows46]

What i mean by Jouban is a better striker than Larkin, is larkin leans on his explosivness, athetism, and chin, and he over reaches with his punches leaving himself open to be countered, he's a perfect style match-up for Turmenov. I don't see this as a upgrade in opp for turmenov over jouban, outside of you will be able to see how good turmeov's striking is a little later into the fight as larkins chin is better than joubans, i believe larkin will survive up to late 2nd- early 3rd round, without any moments of success against the russian. its not a reach to say tumenov is one of the top 3 strikers in the welterweight division, if not the best, he started training karate at the age of six, and has been training for mma since he was 11, his father who's also his coach has a masters of sports degree in boxing.

[bjpenn85]

agree with everything you said, down to the break down of the santiago fight, but larkin doesn't have a weak chin, i actually believe the opposite, larkin has a very nice chin( not as solid as tumenov's chin), but he is open to getting hit however, and Tumernov has the power to put him to sleep and he will make him go nite nite before the final bell. Jouban on the other hand, is a better striker than larkin, but he does in fact have a weak chin, but he has good recovery time.

According to fight metric stats Tumenov is the one getting hit the most with 3.54 strikes absorbed per minute comparared to Larkins 2.45. Weird. Its possible Larkins chin is actually good, and that a weak defence make it seem otherwise. As long as tumnov can exploit it, i dont care. Lets get this money!

[JoshKnows46]

According to fight metric stats Tumenov is the one getting hit the most with 3.54 strikes absorbed per minute comparared to Larkins 2.45. Weird. Its possible Larkins chin is actually good, and that a weak defence make it seem otherwise. As long as tumnov can exploit it, i dont care. Lets get this money!

I say its good, becuase he's only been ko'd once in all his mma fights plus 15 amateur boxing matches...only costas has knocked him out, but after this fight it will be only costas and tumenov who have knocked him out.

[bjpenn85]

I say its good, becuase he's only been ko'd once in all his mma fights plus 15 amateur boxing matches...only costas has knocked him out, but after this fight it will be only costas and tumenov who have knocked him out.

He was seconds from getting KO in the lawler fight as well but taking lawlers power and merit into consideration that doesnt look so bad right now. We previously touched the topic of cardio and i watched some fight with Larkin. I think one thing that makes Larkin tired in the later rounds is that he fights in bursts, which also goes hand in hand with what you said earlier about him relying on his speed and athleticism. To accelerate costs energy! Another factor is also that individuals with power and fast twitched muscle fibers tend to gass typically, not sensational facts, i know. Tumenov probably has those same attributes, but he appears to have less muscle mass + it looks like he moves with less energy expenditure.

[JoshKnows46]

He was seconds from getting KO in the lawler fight as well but taking lawlers power and merit into consideration that doesnt look so bad right now. We previously touched the topic of cardio and i watched some fight with Larkin. I think one thing that makes Larkin tired in the later rounds is that he fights in bursts, which also goes hand in hand with what you said earlier about him relying on his speed and athleticism. To accelerate costs energy! Another factor is also that individuals with power and fast twitched muscle fibers tend to gass typically, not sensational facts, i know. Tumenov probably has those same attributes, but he appears to have less muscle mass + it looks like he moves with less energy expenditure.

It goes back to what Mcgregor said, timing beats speed and precision beats power, you will see that in this fight, tumenov lets his opp make the mistakes, he comes forward with pressure with the intention to counter his opp, much like mcgregor does. larkin is all speed and power, he over extents and pushes his punches, he's very little precision and timing, his best defense, similar to aldo is his straight forward offense, which is perfect for Tumenov's style of fighting. he does fight in bursts, while tumenov is steady in his pressure, larkin needs to jump in and out, while tumenov can stay in the pocket with his better chin, striking defense and countering ability, so when larkin starts to slow and cant bounce in and out of range, he's in for a mighty big ass whooping, as tumenov starts to cut off the octagon. Turmenov is more selective in his strikes, but when he gets a guy hurt, he knows it, and he swarms like a bee to honey till the guy is finished, turmenov is a natural born killa, and larkin will be completely outclassed on the feet in this fight. The line being set high as it was on this fight to start with, was set to get public noob money on larkin, who is more of a household name i'd say, but the big money is coming in on turmenov still, this isn't a close fight, and the oddsmaker's know it, and the bettors that know what they are doing, know it.

[bjpenn85]

It goes back to what Mcgregor said, timing beats speed and precision beats power, you will see that in this fight, tumenov lets his opp make the mistakes, he comes forward with pressure with the intention to counter his opp, much like mcgregor does. larkin is all speed and power, he over extents and pushes his punches, he's very little precision and timing, his best defense, similar to aldo is his straight forward offense, which is perfect for Tumenov's style of fighting. he does fight in bursts, while tumenov is steady in his pressure, larkin needs to jump in and out, while tumenov can stay in the pocket with his better chin, striking defense and countering ability, so when larkin starts to slow and cant bounce in and out of range, he's in for a mighty big ass whooping, as tumenov starts to cut off the octagon. Turmenov is more selective in his strikes, but when he gets a guy hurt, he knows it, and he swarms like a bee to honey till the guy is finished, turmenov is a natural born killa, and larkin will be completely outclassed on the feet in this fight. The line being set high as it was on this fight to start with, was set to get public noob money on larkin, who is more of a household name i'd say, but the big money is coming in on turmenov still, this isn't a close fight, and the oddsmaker's know it, and the bettors that know what they are doing, know it.

yep. If i would pick out a weakness in Tumenovs game it his ability to get hit by the left hook. Larkins left hook is decent, so thats something to look out for.

[bjpenn85]

In the mousuke fight Tumenov was hit 5-6 times in the first round. I think it was a left hook, it may been have been the straight left. He doesnt seem to get rocked, and he often moves to the side as well before stepping in. Guy is fantastic. So calm, and so smooth.

[GoBlue77]

cool

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6tHQytjg7A

[bjpenn85]

Any thoughts around Holtzmann vs Drew Dober? From watching a little bit of tape i believe Dober looks like Dober has very little to offer offensely except 1-2s and a repeated leg kick. Decent takedown defence but little to no grappling acumen. Will this be a close fight or will this be a decisive victory for the unproven but decent striker in Holtzmann?

Heres drew dobers figth with silva that ended up in a no centest - http://www.mma-core.com/videos/Leand...art_1/10098915

[Sanity Check]

I feel compelled to fade Holtzman for no reason other than he trains out of MMA Lab.

Fighters who train out of MMA Lab are usually outclassed everywhere by their opponents.

[UncleChael]

I've seen the light. Condit has been out of the cage for a while and has fought twice in the last 2.5 years, which kinda scares me. He has more tools and he's a runner. Condit is a winner himself.. I don't think people know how good he really is. He's a pick-em against the Champ for a reason. You usually would have to bet the champ when it's a pick-em, but that's what Vegas wants you to do. My thoughts.
I want to see Condit vs. MacDonald II. Hendricks sucks. Condit wins. Robbie is already a winner.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Poirier wins inside distance +434 $100 to win $434
Poirier wins by ko/tko +600 $100 to win $600

[TPowell]

Couldn't resist. Have Brandao at +550 to win by TKO and hedged on Brandao +170. Only reason I flinched earlier was you

[JoshKnows46]

Couldn't resist. Have Brandao at +550 to win by TKO and hedged on Brandao +170. Only reason I flinched earlier was you

He has a slim chance at a ko in the 1st round, I have him at a bigger underdog then the books have him, but can't see either of those plays having much of a chance, good luck however, would be a nice payout if he could pull out the ko for you, thats the only way to play him, but its a long shot as the odds suggest. Porior at +600 odds, is the far better play, your getting 3 times what i capped it at of +200, very strong possibility duffy tastes the bitter taste of a ko for the first time.

[hwgfb]

thinking Tumenov and Ortega are very good bets.. may put then together in a parlay.. but well be betting on them for sure..

[bjpenn85]

Im not sure im comfortable with betting as much on Condit as i once was. Lawler have at least beat brown, hendricks and rory. Alves and Kampmann, isnt exactly world beaters. I would like to see Condit against a bit tougher competition. He did fight Woodley, but that didnt turn out to good, even standing. Im contemplating buying back a bit, well se how much.

[JIBBBY]

Couldn't resist. Have Brandao at +550 to win by TKO and hedged on Brandao +170. Only reason I flinched earlier was you

Pending1/2/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1321 Brandao wins in round 1 +700* <small>vs</small> Any other result

[hwgfb]

well be betting on Brian Ortega as a sure bet for me.. looking at Sheldon Westcott now, any thing on him from this forum?

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Nina Ansaroff +205 $200 to win $410

[TPowell]

Pending1/2/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1321 Brandao wins in round 1 +700* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Only saw +600 at my book. That was why I went by KO

[TPowell]

well be betting on Brian Ortega as a sure bet for me.. looking at Sheldon Westcott now, any thing on him from this forum?

hyper aggressive grappler who either finishes early or tires out

[KushMoney]

Holy shit I'm also on Condit Round 3 Round 4 Round 5. Surprised to see a SBR Poster on the same.

We might be onto something.


Good luck man!!!



Fukk yea

5 Dimes. Eat it!


I'm also on Condit Straight up. Miocic Decision. Nina Ansaroff Straight up.

[JC2008]

I don't know his opponent but Westcott should never be favored.

[TPowell]

I don't know his opponent but Westcott should never be favored.

His opponent is really really bad. He should be able to finish him early or at least survive the 3rd for a decision win after he gasses

[getlucky2win]

Holy shit I'm also on Condit Round 3 Round 4 Round 5. Surprised to see a SBR Poster on the same.

We might be onto something.


Good luck man!!!



Fukk yea

5 Dimes. Eat it!


I'm also on Condit Straight up. Miocic Decision. Nina Ansaroff Straight up.

how is the live betting going lately? i will probly live bet ortega

[Aye J Mac]

Poirer good call bro

[Deceptakhan]

Great start!

[JoshKnows46]

Brian Ortega -160 risking $500 (added more to my play because the line improved, and I have Ortega capped at -320.)

[Aye J Mac]

Nice ortega

[Aye J Mac]

Tumenuv nice one bro

[bjpenn85]

Keeping this pace going forward, you probably quit your job and still visit museums breaking ming vases. Hats off! War NBK!

[JoshKnows46]

I profited +$246.59, but would have profited. +$5,046 59, if the judges didn't screw condit over in the main event, condit dominated the first 4 rounds, landed 3 times as many strikes, the only 2 rounds lawlar could have possible won, could have went either way, but somehow 2 judges gave him 3 rounds, shit is like wrestling, absolutely brutal robbery, worse I've ever seen. Big profit swing against me, they can only keep me at bay if they cheat me, can't beat me fairly. Sick and still shocked by what just transpired.

[JC2008]

Lawler was to be had at +450 after round 3. A profit's a profit, at least.