JoshKnows UFC 195 Winners

[JoshKnows46]

Will also have money on Tumenov By TKO/KO.

Carlos Condit +110 Risking $2400

Brian Ortega -220 Risking $900

Albert Tumenov -200 Risking $1800

Dustin Poirier +200 Risking $900

[opinionator]

keep up the good work

[Kermit]

Will also have money on Tumenov By TKO/KO.

Carlos Condit +110 Risking $2400

Brian Ortega -220 Risking $900

Albert Tumenov -200 Risking $1800

Dustin Poirier +200 Risking $900

This is where my money will be at.

Can't believe the Poirier/Duffy fight is on fukking fight pass.

[DUBnation]

With you on these. I'm looking forward to seeing Einstein again, he looked great against Jouban. What do you think about Gastelum/Noke?

Nice work on the last card btw

[JoshKnows46]

With you on these. I'm looking forward to seeing Einstein again, he looked great against Jouban. What do you think about Gastelum/Noke?

Nice work on the last card btw

Line is over valued based on name, still have Gastelum winning, but I don't trust him to lay the big number, so id advise a no play on that fight, I wouldn't put a cent on either side straight or in a parlay.

[bjpenn85]

My only concern with condit would be his takedown defence. I could probably take him down and grind him myself. If lawler choose to take advantage he could steal points in later rounds if the fight is a toss up.

[bjpenn85]

Lawler split dec @+6.71 as a hedge will without a doubt cash if condit loses though. I mean no one finishes Condit, and if you win over condit in a 5 round fight, no chance of outclassing him in a unanimous victory. So if lawler win, he wont win by any other way then a razor close split dec win, IMO.

Most of the times this fight goes to a decision, but i see condit as more likely of finishing lawler therefore its slightly more risky to go for the distance prop. I think Condit Straight hedged with lawler split dec is the way to go here.

[JoshKnows46]

My only concern with condit would be his takedown defence. I could probably take him down and grind him myself. If lawler choose to take advantage he could steal points in later rounds if the fight is a toss up.

He can get himself submitted real quick too, haha anyway Thats not his style, when have you ever seen lawler look to bring the fight to the ground, i don't see that happening, i'd also venture to say he's at a even bigger disadvantage on the ground then he is at a disadvantge on standing, and he would get sweeped and end up on bottom rather quickly. If the Lawler gets by the first 3 rounds, condit will have alot more left in the tank come the championship rounds, condit won't let him off the hook once he's hurt like rory did, and condit wont run out of gas going for the finish, natural born killer should be the favorite in this contest, lawler has the power, and thats about it, but condit has the chin, movement and toughness for lawlers one advantage not to be a factor, stylistic wise, condit couldnt have asked for a better match-up for a championship fight, easiest fight to pick a winner on the entire card imo.

[mirinquads]

My only concern with condit would be his takedown defence. I could probably take him down and grind him myself. If lawler choose to take advantage he could steal points in later rounds if the fight is a toss up.

Lawler is not taking anybody down.

And he can most certainly finish Condit. Condit been rocked and put down times again, very hittable on the feet, and if Lawler puts you down you aren't getting back up.

Condit needs to put on a Diaz performance here, as Lawlers hands are much better and more powerful. Though Condits been doing good work with his elbows lately.

[JoshKnows46]

Lawler split dec @+6.71 as a hedge will without a doubt cash if condit loses though. I mean no one finishes Condit, and if you win over condit in a 5 round fight, no chance of outclassing him in a unanimous victory. So if lawler win, he wont win by any other way then a razor close split dec win, IMO.

Most of the times this fight goes to a decision, but i see condit as more likely of finishing lawler therefore its slightly more risky to go for the distance prop. I think Condit Straight hedged with lawler split dec is the way to go here.

that would be his only way of victory, but i don't think the probabilty of that happening, is worth a hedge, and if you do decide to hedge, i wouldn't make it a big enough hedge to cover my entire bet, since i'm betting 2400 for example, i wouldn't go bet $400 on that hedge to cover my whole 2400, becuase for 1, i don't see it going the distance, and that would mean one judge would have to see the fight differently than the other two, and alot can happen in a 5 round fight, lawler does have power and crazier things have happen the lawler ko'ing someone i didnt think he'd ko, it just seems like alot would have to go right for it to go right, and u could very easily lose both bets....but at the same time i wouldn't mind throwing 100 on it to cover 1/4th of my bet size, but me personally i'm not gonna hedge this fight.

[JoshKnows46]

Lawler is not taking anybody down.

And he can most certainly finish Condit. Condit been rocked and put down times again, very hittable on the feet, and if Lawler puts you down you aren't getting back up.

Condit needs to put on a Diaz performance here, as Lawlers hands are much better and more powerful. Though Condits been doing good work with his elbows lately.

lawlers hands are better, but condit has knees, kicks, elbows, hands, reach, better movement, smarter, he'll pick lawler apart standing, and the later in the fight it goes, the more of a advantage condit will have.

[bjpenn85]

Lawler is not taking anybody down.

And he can most certainly finish Condit. Condit been rocked and put down times again, very hittable on the feet, and if Lawler puts you down you aren't getting back up.

Condit needs to put on a Diaz performance here, as Lawlers hands are much better and more powerful. Though Condits been doing good work with his elbows lately.

He is hittable, true. At least in that rory macdonald fight from 2010, he was hit all day. I think the output and variation will be the difference. Brown rocked lawler a couple of times in their fight, but he moves very well when hit. Although he was quite near a finish of brown, he stayed patient, maybe a bit to patient. Doubt he would finish Condit with that type of defensive manner. He doesnt go for the kill like before, hes more patient now. Same with in the ellenberger fight, he could have won early round 2, if memory serves me correct, but he waits..and waits, and eventually get the finish. Its a healthy sign obviously, hes not cb dolloway!

[mirinquads]

I don't think Condit has the better footwork at all. He often get's pretty sloppy and off balance when he throws actually. Stuff like this, Lawler can capitalize on. I do like the new way Condit is training though, and I think he's becoming more educated in his fighting style. It's a goodish matchup for Condit, but he won't necessarily win on the feet. Lawler is not Diaz that will aimlessly plod after Condit when he throws kicks and long combinations.
Haven't picked a side yet, but how people are still underestimating him is insane to me. Been riding the train size he bashed Koschecks skull in, will have to see if I will keep it up here.

[JoshKnows46]

I don't think Condit has the better footwork at all. He often get's pretty sloppy and off balance when he throws actually. Stuff like this, Lawler can capitalize on. I do like the new way Condit is training though, and I think he's becoming more educated in his fighting style. It's a goodish matchup for Condit, but he won't necessarily win on the feet. Lawler is not Diaz that will aimlessly plod after Condit when he throws kicks and long combinations.
Haven't picked a side yet, but how people are still underestimating him is insane to me. Been riding the train size he bashed Koschecks skull in, will have to see if I will keep it up here.

but lawler does go through stretches in a fight were he will just plod forward, he takes parts of rounds off at times, and fights in spurts, similar to jose aldo, he trys to conserve energy, and condit will take advatage of that, with long combinations and kicks. Rory did, but he didnt have the gas tank or the mental strength to finish.

[JoshKnows46]

Maybe not the better footwork, but that's not exactly what I meant by movement, he doesn't get flat footed like lawler, he stays in constant movement in and out of range, he covers alot of ground, stays on his toes. He does have a tendency to get knocked off balance, but think that will come with staying light on your feet and never getting really grounded flat footed. It's a nice matchup for him, he doesn't have to worry about the takedown as he usually does, can let his knees and kicks go in this fight.

[mirinquads]

Never plods, but does get out volumed at times. Though on the cardio thing, Lawler finished Rory in the fifth and almost put down Hendricks too, so its not like he's dead in the later rounds at all.

Lawler has the better jab too. Though if Condit can land that headkick he can hurt Lawler for sure, maybe even get a KO. That Right leg kickk in the openstance can be deadly, like Lawler found out against Mcdonald. Maybe he can land it from that wierd angle like against GSP.

Lawler is only flatfooted in the sense that he plants his feet a lot so he can generate power. He still moves very quickly and efficiently around to where he wants to be. Flatfooted is just fluff word commentators like to use for little reason. Look at the little known but Pound 4 pound great in boxing Roman Chocolatito Gonzalez. People would call him flat footed because he doesnt use a lot of unnecessary movemnent or bouncing, but that just means he's in perfect position to throw with maximum power at all times.

Line should be about even imo. Have a bet on Condit +130, need to figure out whether to take or switch.

[JoshKnows46]

Never plods, but does get out volumed at times. Though on the cardio thing, Lawler finished Rory in the fifth and almost put down Hendricks too, so its not like he's dead in the later rounds at all.

Lawler has the better jab too. Though if Condit can land that headkick he can hurt Lawler for sure, maybe even get a KO. That Right leg kickk in the openstance can be deadly, like Lawler found out against Mcdonald. Maybe he can land it from that wierd angle like against GSP.

But look how those guys fought early in the fight, they never really pushed robbie cardio early, the moment seemed too big for rory early in the fight, he was very hesitant and looked lost out there. I was impressed with robbie Cardo in the rory fight, after almost getting kod he caught his second wind, that's tough to do once you get that close to getting knocked out, so it is improved, but I believe condit is a bit more mentally strong and the moment won't get to him, I'm see him testing the cardio and pushing the fight from the start, not fighting lawler fight like rory did in the first couple rounds.

[mirinquads]

Carlos may be able to exploit Lawler cardio if he pushes the fight early ye. Coming back from getting rocked is very hard to do as you pointed out too. Lawler has 0 quit in him at this point in his career. Pushing the fight means contesting Lawler in his wheelhouse when fresh though. I think Carlos either wants to be on the outside or all the way in working elbows and knees though, in boxing range he gets rekt. His elbows may play a factor here, he was excellent with them against Alves.


Man im getting hyped for this fight, It's gonna be insane.

[JoshKnows46]

Never plods, but does get out volumed at times. Though on the cardio thing, Lawler finished Rory in the fifth and almost put down Hendricks too, so its not like he's dead in the later rounds at all.

Lawler has the better jab too. Though if Condit can land that headkick he can hurt Lawler for sure, maybe even get a KO. That Right leg kickk in the openstance can be deadly, like Lawler found out against Mcdonald. Maybe he can land it from that wierd angle like against GSP.

Lawler is only flatfooted in the sense that he plants his feet a lot so he can generate power. He still moves very quickly and efficiently around to where he wants to be. Flatfooted is just fluff word commentators like to use for little reason. Look at the little known but Pound 4 pound great in boxing Roman Chocolatito Gonzalez. People would call him flat footed because he doesnt use a lot of unnecessary movemnent or bouncing, but that just means he's in perfect position to throw with maximum power at all times.

Line should be about even imo. Have a bet on Condit +130, need to figure out whether to take or switch.

I agree with this, robbie has nice head movement, he doesn't really need to bounce in and out, and he'll take a lick to give one, I just have a feeling ol Carlos won't be there when he's throwing and he's gonna be on the end of Carlos punches and kicks most of the night. Elbows when he rushes in. Robbie is dangerious, but styles make fights, and I'd put condit at -170 odds, you did well to get the 130

[mirinquads]

I will have to go back and watch some tape, these things usually becomes much more clear to me when I see some fights back to back, mostly going off memory and took the line because I thought it would probably drop. A lot of people seem to like the Over, but these guys are going to put so much damage on each other..

[JoshKnows46]

I will have to go back and watch some tape, these things usually becomes much more clear to me when I see some fights back to back, mostly going off memory and took the line because I thought it would probably drop. A lot of people seem to like the Over, but these guys are going to put so much damage on each other..

25 minutes is a long time, this is a kill or be killed match, while i can see scenarios with it going the distance becuase they are both tough, these guys are both finishers, if they smell blood, they gonna jump on it, and in a 25 minute fight, as it gets later in the fight, more mistakes are likely to happen, and both guys are outstanding at taking advantage of their opp's mistakes. the senerio i kept envisioning when watching their fights, is carlos clipping him with a kick and jumping on a rear necked choke or some kind of submission, thats what i see happening. carlos has only been tko once and that was just from a a injury, never really tko'd, and its hard to invison robbie catching him a submission, offcourse robbie can knock anyone out if he times him coming in right, but robbies possibility's much lower then condit's possibilitys in finishing is how i feel about. I give robbie both a lower probability of finish, and a lower probability of winning it on the cards.

[mirinquads]

Already hit up Condit 4-5 rounds, Sitting at +2k both too. Probably gonna play fight ends RD 4-5 also.

[bjpenn85]

25 minutes is a long time, this is a kill or be killed match, while i can see scenarios with it going the distance becuase they are both tough, these guys are both finishers, if they smell blood, they gonna jump on it, and in a 25 minute fight, as it gets later in the fight, more mistakes are likely to happen, and both guys are outstanding at taking advantage of their opp's mistakes. the senerio i kept envisioning when watching their fights, is carlos clipping him with a kick and jumping on a rear necked choke or some kind of submission, thats what i see happening. carlos has only been tko once and that was just from a a injury, never really tko'd, and its hard to invison robbie catching him a submission, offcourse robbie can knock anyone out if he times him coming in right, but robbies possibility's much lower then condit's possibilitys in finishing is how i feel about. I give robbie both a lower probability of finish, and a lower probability of winning it on the cards.

Agreed. I can see Condit by TKO, but i have trouble envisioning anyone finish Condit. I havent seen him really rocked and on wobbley legs in a long time. He gets hit, but it doesnt appear to affect him Lawler gets rocked although he quickly brushes it often and fight as normal afterwards. But im not going to bet Condit TKO, its not thaat likely.

[Pinocchio]

I like Condit by decision here. It's 5 rounds, he will outlast Lawler.
I don't think either guy will be able to get a finish...

[JoshKnows46]

I like Condit by decision here. It's 5 rounds, he will outlast Lawler.
I don't think either guy will be able to get a finish...

I def wouldn't get cute with it, just bet condit straight, and take the easy money. I'd say it's 60% chance condit gets the tko or sub in this tailor made matchup within 25 minutes, and its 40% chance he wins by decision, take the cash, don't try to guess how he wins, and miss out altogether,would be my advice. I don't see it going to the cards, I like what mirinquads is doing, taking small stabs in the 4th and 5th on condit.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Condit wins inside 5 rounds +295 $25 to win $73.75
Condit wins in round 4 +2050 $25 to win $525.25
Condit wins in round 5 +2850 $25 to win $712.50

[JIBBBY]

Added:
Condit wins inside 5 rounds +295 $25 to win $73.75
Condit wins in round 4 +2050 $25 to win $525.25
Condit wins in round 5 +2850 $25 to win $712.50

If Condit is just peppering Robbie Lawler standing none stop he could finish in rounds 4 of 5 perhaps.. Still it's a long shot as I think Robbie has massive heart and grit as shown against Rory Mac in his last fight.. In fact he showed he can go the distance in his last 3 fights and against fighters that are known to finish.. GL as you've been riding hot lately... I'm thinking this thing goes the distance myself..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robbie-Lawler-2245

[UncleChael]

I dunno Josh... Robbie's coming to knock people out...

[Shagdogy]

Love Tumenov's power and confidence against Larkin, but Larkin's pace is generally much faster than Tumenov. Any concern there? I tend to think it's just more opportunities for Tumenov to counter... but his last few fights haven't had the pace Larkin has been keeping so it's a bit of a wild card factor.

[Shagdogy]

Agree with you on Poirier. Think he is a steal at 2-1. Duffy hasn't fought anywhere close to the level of competition of Poirier, and has only fought in the US one time and Jake Lindsey was an absolute joke in that fight. Duffy will have a pretty good size (maybe power?) advantage but Poirier is a big step up for him in skill. 2-1 is generous

[TPowell]

Love Tumenov's power and confidence against Larkin, but Larkin's pace is generally much faster than Tumenov. Any concern there? I tend to think it's just more opportunities for Tumenov to counter... but his last few fights haven't had the pace Larkin has been keeping so it's a bit of a wild card factor.

I'm curious here too. Seems like a solid matchup. I think Larkin could easily gas though

[bjpenn85]

Love Tumenov's power and confidence against Larkin, but Larkin's pace is generally much faster than Tumenov. Any concern there? I tend to think it's just more opportunities for Tumenov to counter... but his last few fights haven't had the pace Larkin has been keeping so it's a bit of a wild card factor.

I believe Tumenov is the better counter fighter with the better cardio. It doesn help Larkin that he is the one with the weak chin as well. The fight may be close, but i think Tumenov will have more confidence, take the center of the cage and pressure Larkin. Santiago P. did well pressuring Larkin but for some reason got lazy and kept his hands way to low when Larkin came inside. It wasnt like Larkin outclassed Santiago with slick combination, body body head, spinning kicks etc. I can easily understand one will be hesitant playing tumenov against another good striker, but just see how he solved the puzzle against Jouban. He had no problems, and he found a way to win easily.

[TPowell]

any thoughts on the Trujillo matchup?

[JoshKnows46]

Love Tumenov's power and confidence against Larkin, but Larkin's pace is generally much faster than Tumenov. Any concern there? I tend to think it's just more opportunities for Tumenov to counter... but his last few fights haven't had the pace Larkin has been keeping so it's a bit of a wild card factor.

Better striking defense, better cardio, better chin, more power, better boxer, better counters, don't see Larkin setting the pace, and i dont see any path to victory for Larkin.

[JoshKnows46]

any thoughts on the Trujillo matchup?

thoughts, flip a coin, don't see a edge, oddsmakers got it right to set it at even money, depends who comes in with the better gameplan, mindset, un-nessesary risk to bet on either fighter, best play is a no play