UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Oliveira (August 23, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

Are you sure jibbers? Holloway tapped out 2 UFCers!!!!!

Oli is a legit Brazilian Black belt under Patino (4th degree BBJ)... Holloway is very tricky himself on the ground but Dusting Poirier sub'd him via arm bar..... IDK Beelz?

[JIBBBY]

Holloway's best chance to win in this fight is with his striking IMO.. Max has to touch "Do Bronx" Oli's chin and body just like Cowboy and Cub Swanson did to walk away with this win...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Oliveira-30300



Thinking of pulling the trigger with this prop actually..

1041 Holloway wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> +115

[JIBBBY]

Double post.. My bad...

[THE_RUDESTER]

@Jibby I agree with Holloway to win by TKO but I'd go with Holloway inside distance at -112 just to play it safe he could potentially drop Olivera and go for a submission once Olivera is gassed out. Just my opinion I don't expect him to win by submission but I'd play it safe at similar odds +115 vs -112. Good Luck.

[JIBBBY]

@Jibby I agree with Holloway to win by TKO but I'd go with Holloway inside distance at -112 just to play it safe he could potentially drop Olivera and go for a submission once Olivera is gassed out. Just my opinion I don't expect him to win by submission but I'd play it safe at similar odds +115 vs -112. Good Luck.

Agreed ITD is the safer play for sure.. The difference between +114 vs -112 isn't that great either.. Good eye Rudester!!!

[JIBBBY]

Bleacher reports - Main card breakdown odds and predictions... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...nd-predictions

Combatpress - Write ups and predictioins - http://combatpress.com/2015/08/toe-t...d-predictions/

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I have a 10 teamer riding on Holloway with $2 and change that was left in my Heritage account..


Pitchers : J. Ross - R - Must Pitch / Z. Greinke - R - Must Pitch

#1) Wager Type :	Run Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection :	Los Angeles Dodgers	Time :	8/11/2015 7:10:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-1 -115 buying ½	Result :	Washington Nationals 0 - Los Angeles Dodgers 5

Pitchers : W. Perez - R - Must Pitch / Er. Ramirez - R - Must Pitch

#2) Wager Type :	Run Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection :	Tampa Bay Rays	Time :	8/11/2015 4:10:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-1 -150 buying ½	Result :	Atlanta Braves 0 - Tampa Bay Rays 2

Pitchers : S. Kazmir - L - Must Pitch / M. Bumgarner - L - Must Pitch

#3) Wager Type :	Run Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection :	San Francisco Giants	Time :	8/11/2015 7:15:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-1 -103 buying ½	Result :	Houston Astros 1 - San Francisco Giants 3

#4) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection :	B. Bencic	Time :	8/11/2015 4:00:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-195	Result :	E. Bouchard 1 - B. Bencic 2
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

#5) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection :	V. Azarenka	Time :	8/12/2015 4:00:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-190	Result :	V. Azarenka 2 - P. Kvitova 0
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

#6) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Pending
Sport / Period :	UFC Fighting / Game
Selection :	M. Holloway	Time :	8/23/2015 6:00:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-210	Result :	Pending ( C. Oliveira | M. Holloway )
Game Notes : UFC Fight Night 74 - Featherweight 5 rounds - SaskTel Centre - Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada - FS1

Pitchers : J. Zimmermann - R - Must Pitch / C. Kershaw - L - Must Pitch

#7) Wager Type :	Run Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection :	Los Angeles Dodgers	Time :	8/12/2015 7:10:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-1 -156 buying ½	Result :	Washington Nationals 0 - Los Angeles Dodgers 3

Pitchers : E. Butler - R - Must Pitch / N. Syndergaard - R - Must Pitch

#8) Wager Type :	Run Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection :	New York Mets	Time :	8/13/2015 9:10:01AM - (PST)
Line :	-1 -194 buying ½	Result :	Colorado Rockies 3 - New York Mets 12

Pitchers : J. CHAVEZ - R - Must Pitch / M. Buehrle - L - Must Pitch

#9) Wager Type :	Run Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection :	Toronto Blue Jays	Time :	8/13/2015 9:35:01AM - (PST)
Line :	-1 -157 buying ½	Result :	Oakland Athletics 2 - Toronto Blue Jays 4
Game Notes : Pitching Change: Oakland - J. Chavez for S. Gray.

#10) Wager Type :	Money Line	Outcome :	Win
Sport / Period :	ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection :	A. Murray	Time :	8/14/2015 5:00:01PM - (PST)
Line :	-320	Result :	J. Tsonga 0 - A. Murray 2

[JIBBBY]

^^ Jake that's a nice looking 10 teamer shaping up. What's the payout on $2? May wanna hedge that beast if the payout is large.... I'll be rooting for ya..

I also got Holloway as well to close out the leg on a 3 teamer...

[CaptChaos145]

Put the house on Stout.

Perez isn't that good. 5 of his wins came against guys with a combined 5-17 record. He can't beat mid tier UFC guys at this point. he's overrated. Stout will sprawl and brawl and beat the youngster. The line has Frankie favored now.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

^^ Jake that's a nice looking 10 teamer shaping up. What's the payout on $2? May wanna hedge that beast if the payout is large.... I'll be rooting for ya..

I also got Holloway as well to close out the leg on a 3 teamer...

no hedge, it pays $233 and I like Holloway quite a bit so just letting it ride.

gl to us bro

[JIBBBY]

Starting to take a closer look at this event now -

Thinking Trinaldo is a live dog at +275...

Trinaldo is facing an undefeated Canadian fighter in Canada which is a scary thought but Chad Laprise is mostly a decision machine and has a hard time finishing fights at the UFC level.. I don't believe he's fought the level of competition that Trinaldo has up to this point either..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chad-Laprise-69681

Chad at 10-0 won't be an easy fight for Trinaldo to win but he does have twice as many pro fights as Laprise and at 17-4 Trinaldo is a stiff test for anyone to deal with at the UFC level..... He just beat Norman Parke and has now won 3 straight in the UFC..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francisco-Trinaldo-31103

I think I'm gonna roll with Trinaldo at +275 in this one as I think it's worth the shot... These odds are bit off IMO..

<small>UFC Fight Night 74 - Lightweight 3 rounds - SaskTel Centre - Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada - FS1</small>
Sun 8/23		1301 Chad Laprise		<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> -335	<input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4"> o2½ -225
10:00PM		1302 Francisco Trinaldo		<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> +275	<input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4"> u2½ +185

Considering this prop for small as well..

1311 Trinaldo wins by 3 round decision <input id="radiox" value="M1_45" name="radiox" type="radio">+430

[UncleChael]

I was thinking the same thing Jibbs. but I think I will go with parlaying the Canucks instead on Canadian soil .. Chad Laprise + Olivier Aubin-Mercier, might be the play. They're the UFC canadian prospects, and it's hard for me to see them losing here, everyone loses, just hope this isn't the fight. Trinaldo likes to gas, and Laprise will sprawl and brawl and keep it on the feet. These brasilians like to juice up, Trinaldo might be one of them.. Chad eats, sleep, and lives on the feet, and I'll watch more of him but from what I remember watching he doesn't get taken down too often.

[JIBBBY]

^GL Unc and you might be right. I'm gonna try my luck with both dogs myself..

Funny that the other dog that caught my eye on the main card is Tony Sims at +200.. Tony Sims has a chance at the KO in this one I think.. He's a decent fighter that has a knack for KO'ing his opponents.. 10 ko's in 12 wins...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Sims-30021 .. Sims has twice as many pro fights as Mercier also.. I will look for the KO prop when it pops up if the value is decent...

Mercier is a star on the rise but he fights a bit stiff standing, he's only 7 pro fights deep into his pro career. He is a physical specimen though and gets most of his wins by submission from his solid ground work.. I'd say he has a chance at the submission win flip side.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Olivi...nMercier-86241

Should be a good fight regardless but I gotta bet on the guy with more pro MMA experience, pin point striking, KO power and the +200, well that's just icing on the cake.....

<small>UFC Fight Night 74 - Lightweight 3 rounds - SaskTel Centre - Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada - FS1 </small>
Sun 8/23		1401 Tony Sims		<input id="radiox" value="M1_4" name="radiox" type="radio">+200	<input id="radiox" value="L1_4" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -150
9:30PM		1402 Olivier Aubin-Mercier		<input id="radiox" value="M2_4" name="radiox" type="radio">-240	<input id="radiox" value="L2_4" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +130

I really like Sims boxing but he could get grinded on and end up on his back alot in this fight.. My thinking is at some point Sims probably touches that chin and ends the fight like in the GIF below..

[JIBBBY]

In Burkmans last fight he attempted to grapple with dhon hyun Kim, which obviously was a big mistake, but i do this shows a bit more than what it was, a tactical error, it shows an pretty high confidence in his grappling game. While patrick cote has redeemed himself a bit after he was thrown out of the ufc he came back a different fighter. A more experienced fighter and better grappler, but also with a lesser ability to take a punch. He has also slowed down a bit.

The fight is quite close but i feel burkman is slightly the better grappler and absolutely the best striker in this matchup.Im not sure if Cotes usually lay and pray tactic is enough, and while he could rely on his knock out power, thats more or less gone at this point. The minute burkman connect on patrick cotes chin this fight could be over very quickly, the handspeed and precision of burkman is surprisingly sweet. Both fighter has probably left their peak, but i def go for the most impressive fighter so, burkman by decision, or early knock out.

If you think Cote has a glass jaw now and Burkman can KO him then look for that prop to come out in the next day or so.. I see ITD Burkman is +180 so I can only imagine the KO prop being +250 or more..

1205 Burkman wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_36" size="4"> +180

I'm on Patrick Cote myself in this one as I don't think Josh can KO him...

[GoGoGadget]

Whats wrong with his jaw? guy has never been knocked out in his career.

[JIBBBY]

Whats wrong with his jaw? guy has never been knocked out in his career.

He's been rocked a few times in recent fights if I'm not mistaken as where in the past his chin was always granite.. He's also 35 years old now and at that age is when chins can start to go on some fighters.. It's more like the reflex's slow down and the ability to see punches coming begins to fade... Just ask fighters like Josh Kos, Chuck Liddell, etc..

He did almost get put out fighting Sakara a few years back.. Illegal blows though..



I still believe in Patrick Cote's chin, I believe he will show well fighting in Canada as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Patrick-Cote-6612#!

[KingHawkins]

Olivier Aubin-Mercier -240 seems like easy money to me. I am not all that afraid of Sims getting a KO here.
AND, the riskier play I like here with the +187 payout is Mercier ITD. I see him getting the sub (+200) but will sacrifice the 13 cents for the ITD.

[JIBBBY]

Olivier Aubin-Mercier -240 seems like easy money to me. I am not all that afraid of Sims getting a KO here.
AND, the riskier play I like here with the +187 payout is Mercier ITD. I see him getting the sub (+200) but will sacrifice the 13 cents for the ITD.

Mercier does have the huge advantage on the ground and in the clinch and Sims has the huge advantage standing.. Let's see who imposes their strengths and will the most?.. Sims will be tested with this take down defense and cardio in this one for sure.. Mercier's chin will be tested when the fight is standing...

Should be a good scrap...

[KingHawkins]

Sims came through for me just the other month when he KO'ed that Creepy guy. But I think he gets wrestled to a UD or subbed. So it'll be Mercier -3.5 points for me when that line comes. Hoping it'll be plus $, but I could see it being -130ish too.

[UncleChael]

E.Silva by decision +400. Yup. Gl.. +200 for the submission. ; )

[UncleChael]

[JIBBBY]

E.Silva by decision +400. Yup. Gl.. +200 for the submission. ; )

Unc you love fading me.. Lol.

Always bet on Black no?

Magny lost to a very strong ground fighter with outstanding TD's in Damien Maia, he is much better then what he showed and should represent against Silva.. Remember Neil Magny won 7 straight in the UFC before losing to DM...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Neil-Magny-69166

If Silva is to win it's probably gonna be by submission because he was able to take down and control Magny... 11 sub finishes in 15 wins. Erick Silva is just 5-4 in his last 9 fights in the UFC.. He's no Damien Maia. If you must bet Silva take him for the sub win...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erick-Silva-15009

1131 Silva wins by submission <input id="editx" name="M1_43" size="4"> +250

I could see Magny defending Silva's TD attempts and out scoring Silva to decision win or KO myself.. Just my take..

[UncleChael]

Alright coach, i'll get itttt.
I mentioned +400 decision cuz I think Silva can win that way, and its the most money on the board for him if Magny is durable enough. I really think Silva can KO Magny which I didn't mention and both will be screwed. I mentioned before Mike Ricci put out Neil in the TUF house before his 7 fight win streak but that almost means nothing as we come a long way, but he can be put out. On the other side with Neil. I was wrong mentioning the decision or sub play , but playing Erick Silva @ -170 is worth the play, as I'm confident if it goes 15 mins, I believe he can also finish a late sub (Judo blackbelt), or if Silva comes out guns a blazin' in the first 5 minutes like usual , maybe land something strong and clean, then finish Mr.Magny? either way, Erick Silva to the MOON!

[UncleChael]

WHAT! U alright, Neil?
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IxjN7KFolW4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

[JIBBBY]

Lol ^^^^ GL Unc.. Maybe Silva KO's Magny... It's possible but not likely..

Moving on....

<small>UFC Fight Night 74 - Strawweight 3 rounds - SaskTel Centre - Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada - FS1</small>
Sun 8/23		1501 Maryna Moroz		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> -190	<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4"> o1½ -220
9:00PM		1502 Valerie Letourneau		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> +165	<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4"> u1½ +180

The strawweight girls.. Hmmm??? The undefeated Moroz should get the win for starters.... I think these little girls go the distance.. It's very hard for these small girls to finish fights unless they get the submission IMO more often then not at the UFC level...

Both of these girls are finishers by nature though but both are tough enough to go the distance in this matchup..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Maryna-Moroz-151905



Bleacher report write up - My thoughts too...

Maryna Moroz made a statement in her UFC debut. As a significant underdog to Joanne Calderwood, the Ukrainian defeated the top-10-ranked strawweight in just 90 seconds.
Moroz then immediately called out the champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Moroz didn't get the title shot and instead travels to Canada to take on Valerie Letourneau. She is 2-0 in the UFC and 1-0 after dropping back to 115 pounds against Jessica Rakoczy.
Letourneau is tough, but Moroz is part of the new breed of female fighters. Just as we saw the evolution with male fighters more than a decade ago, we are starting to see the same thing with the women. Moroz should hold a decisive advantage against Letourneau, but it won't be a cakewalk.
I like the value of minus-200 on Moroz. This is her fight to lose, and it should be a safe play.
Prediction: Moroz defeats Letourneau by decision.
The Play: Be safe with Moroz.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Turning to props for best value this might be the best play..

Pending8/23/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1507 Moroz wins by 3 round decision +333* <small>vs</small> Not Moroz by 3 round decision

Moroz with 5 sub wins in 6 fights could win by submission though but Valerie has never lost by sub so pick your poisons for value...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Valerie-Letourneau-21851

1527 Moroz wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_117" size="4"> +165

[UncleChael]

Dana white: look at him.. he's fukked up. @+470 I'll take the chance, looks like good money.

[JIBBBY]

Dana white: look at him.. he's fukked up. @+470 I'll take the chance, looks like good money.

He was focked up.. Dana White all serious looking.. Lol..

Magny caught that on TUF show years ago.. Hasn't been KO'd since.. That was a stiff elbow that landed though from Mike Ricci..

[JIBBBY]

This is event is on Sunday.. That's crap.. Should be on tomorrow night..

We do have RFA tomorrow night but the only problem is I really don't know the fighters so well.. http://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/...-usa-vs-brazil



Bleacherreport fighter discussions leading in - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...n-saskatchewan

[PaperTrail07]

Nice work GL should cash $$ LOVE Silva over Magny----

no hedge, it pays $233 and I like Holloway quite a bit so just letting it ride.

gl to us bro

[PaperTrail07]

Magny has improved as a fighter but Silva is too quick and it wont go to the ground...

[mirinquads]

But the ground is Silva's best path to victory doe..

[JIBBBY]

Bleacherreports final full card preview.. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...-night-74-card

[TheCalculator]

I'm huge on Magny. 4 units. Bad match up for Silva. Silva might starch him in the first -- but I don't think it's gonna happen.

[JIBBBY]

Weight ins live -

[JIBBBY]

Everyone made weight.. Houston we have lift off for tomorrow night!!!!

MAIN CARD (FOX Sports 1, 9 p.m. ET)

• Max Holloway (145) vs. Charles Oliveira (145.5)
• Neil Magny (170.5) vs. Erick Silva (171)
• Josh Burkman (170) vs. Patrick Cote (170)
• Chad Laprise (155.5) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (155.5)
• Olivier Aubin-Mercier (155) vs. Tony Sims (155.5)
• Valerie Letourneau (116)* vs. Maryna Moroz (115)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, 7 p.m. ET)

• Frankie Perez (155.5) vs. Sam Stout (155)
• Felipe Arantes (135.5) vs. Yves Jabouin (135.5)
• Nikita Krylov (205.5) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (205)
• Chris Beal (126) vs. Chris Kelades (125.5)

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6 p.m. ET)

• Shane Campbell (155) vs. Elias Silverio (154.5)
• Misha Cirkunov (205) vs. Daniel Jolly (204)