Large parlay ends with Jones... hedge advice needed.

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  • dreamlanding
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-22-11
    • 315

    #1
    Large parlay ends with Jones... hedge advice needed.
    1) No hedge alpha move
    2) Hedge w/ DC moneyline (+175 now)
    3) Hedge w/ Under 4.5 with the logic that DC won't win a decision and hope to middle it
    4) Something else?


    $590.00 $6,781.16 Pending 12 Team Parlay
    Win 1/3/15 10:00am England Soccer 810 Swansea (ENG-FA Cup) -236* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Tranmere (ENG-FA Cup)
    Win 1/3/15 10:00am England Soccer 817 West Bromwich (ENG-FA Cup) -456* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Gateshead (ENG-FA Cup)
    Win 1/3/15 10:00am England Soccer 819 Birmingham (ENG-FA Cup) -328* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Blyth Spartans (ENG-FA Cup)
    Win 1/3/15 10:00am England Soccer 841 Derby (ENG-FA Cup) -623* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Southport (ENG-FA Cup)
    Win 1/3/15 9:15am France Soccer 1017 Nantes (FRA-Cup) -1088* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Franciscain (FRA-Cup)
    Win 1/3/15 12:30pm Greece Soccer 1508 PAOK (GRE-S) -369* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Panionios (GRE-S)
    Win 1/3/15 3:15pm Portugal Soccer 1860 FC Porto (POR) -504* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Gil Vicente (POR)
    Win 1/3/15 10:00am Scotland Soccer 1911 Rangers (SCO-Cham) -345* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Dumbarton (SCO-Cham)
    Win 1/3/15 10:00am Spain Soccer 102 Atletico Madrid (ESP-P) Over ½ -1420* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Levante (ESP-P)
    Win 1/3/15 12:00pm Spain Soccer 105 Sevilla (ESP-P) Over ½ -685* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Celta Vigo (ESP-P)
    Win 1/3/15 4:00pm Spain Soccer 117 Malaga (ESP-P) Over ½ -670* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Almeria (ESP-P)
    Pending 1/3/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -175* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Daniel Cormier
  • mirinquads
    SBR MVP
    • 04-22-13
    • 3927

    #2
    Let it ride you lil pussy
    Comment
    • dreamlanding
      SBR Sharp
      • 02-22-11
      • 315

      #3
      Loading up on longshot DC props might be fun though
      Comment
      • UncleChael
        SBR MVP
        • 10-30-13
        • 3979

        #4
        Lemme tail you next time, Pal!
        Comment
        • JIBBBY
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-10-09
          • 83693

          #5
          Nice run even with mostly all the bets being heavy favorites!!..... Impressive!!!!!
          Comment
          • Beelzebubzy
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 06-06-11
            • 6995

            #6
            590 on DC but I'm a bitch
            Comment
            • NunyaBidness
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-26-09
              • 9345

              #7
              In order of best decisions to make:

              1) Don't hedge, if you liked it when you placed it what changed? If you were going to hedge, you would've been better to leave it off completely.

              2) Cormier +4.5 gives you a chance to hit a middle.

              3) Cormier ML.

              4) Anything else is retarded, can easily lose both.
              Comment
              • rocky16
                SBR MVP
                • 07-22-12
                • 1905

                #8
                $7371.16 DC +175 to win 12899.53.
                Comment
                • Git Lo
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-20-11
                  • 3783

                  #9
                  Hedging jones?? Y
                  Comment
                  • brooks85
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-05-09
                    • 44709

                    #10
                    Hedging is based on one thing and one thing only, math.

                    If you want to look at it from an investment point of view, whether you should hedge or not, depends on how big your bank roll is.

                    However, the odds of it being big enough to just ignore a free 3k is highly unlikely so no point in even going further.



                    I've been wrong before and will be again but not on hedging. Here is an example of the last guy who ignored my advice(math)

                    Last edited by brooks85; 01-03-15, 10:52 PM.
                    Comment
                    • dreamlanding
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 02-22-11
                      • 315

                      #11
                      Full hedge on DC moneyline. Last poster was correct, free 3k to watch the fight in peace was worth it. I'm wavering slightly on Jones from a lot of stuff people are writing plus the earlier line movement.
                      Comment
                      • Sykes
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-23-12
                        • 2714

                        #12
                        That's some Dugan bet. Hedge to get at least 2k out of it.
                        Comment
                        • Sykes
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-23-12
                          • 2714

                          #13
                          Degan....
                          Comment
                          • mirinquads
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-22-13
                            • 3927

                            #14
                            Originally posted by dreamlanding
                            Full hedge on DC moneyline. Last poster was correct, free 3k to watch the fight in peace was worth it. I'm wavering slightly on Jones from a lot of stuff people are writing plus the earlier line movement.
                            You still there, pussy?
                            Comment
                            • marzwoody
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-03-14
                              • 3902

                              #15
                              Hedging is for pussys.
                              Comment
                              • Git Lo
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-20-11
                                • 3783

                                #16
                                Lmao so you just throw out 1k, like others said man up
                                Comment
                                • marzwoody
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-03-14
                                  • 3902

                                  #17
                                  You hedge on the champ / Pound for pound best? fkn puss.
                                  Comment
                                  • Sykes
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-23-12
                                    • 2714

                                    #18
                                    Nice win man. You poxed them football scores big time. Fuk the haters that's a nice win.
                                    Comment
                                    • NunyaBidness
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 07-26-09
                                      • 9345

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Sykes
                                      Nice win man. You poxed them football scores big time. Fuk the haters that's a nice win.
                                      People always go nuts congratulating people on hitting these big stupid parlays. Yeah, it'd be great to play one and hit one, but he's probably got 50 losers just like it. Finally hits one and throws away some of his profit.
                                      Comment
                                      • Sykes
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-23-12
                                        • 2714

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                        People always go nuts congratulating people on hitting these big stupid parlays. Yeah, it'd be great to play one and hit one, but he's probably got 50 losers just like it. Finally hits one and throws away some of his profit.
                                        Man you can buy a car with that money. Id of arb'd like fuk. Dont get me wrong, he got so lucky with that football serious, football always fuks u, it does time n time again, betting 590 on it think he really dont need the 3k.
                                        Comment
                                        • MD
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 01-31-12
                                          • 9728

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by brooks85
                                          Hedging is based on one thing and one thing only, math.

                                          If you want to look at it from an investment point of view, whether you should hedge or not, depends on how big your bank roll is.

                                          However, the odds of it being big enough to just ignore a free 3k is highly unlikely so no point in even going further.



                                          I've been wrong before and will be again but not on hedging. Here is an example of the last guy who ignored my advice(math)

                                          http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...ions-here.html
                                          What a surprise, the guy who doesn't understand EV gives even more absolutely terrible advice about another topic which you clearly don't understand.

                                          Being a failed gambler is sad, but being a failed betpoint poker player is pathetic. Enjoy your life.
                                          Comment
                                          • Sykes
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-23-12
                                            • 2714

                                            #22
                                            A guy that bet this bet is either. R
                                            Comment
                                            • Sykes
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-23-12
                                              • 2714

                                              #23
                                              This guy is either rich or has plenty of money. The picks are so 'all the favorites' for $590. 590 is nice money people can live off that shit ya know.
                                              Comment
                                              • Sykes
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-23-12
                                                • 2714

                                                #24
                                                Like Nun, do you just do parlays for 600 for the craic?
                                                Comment
                                                • Sykes
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-23-12
                                                  • 2714

                                                  #25
                                                  you prolly do. Me n u need to make a site.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • NunyaBidness
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 07-26-09
                                                    • 9345

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Sykes
                                                    Like Nun, do you just do parlays for 600 for the craic?
                                                    I dunno what craic is, but I rarely do parlays.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Sykes
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-23-12
                                                      • 2714

                                                      #27
                                                      Well - thats wat his bet was imo. That or an all in fuk it bet.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • mirinquads
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-22-13
                                                        • 3927

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by mirinquads
                                                        You still there, pussy?
                                                        Told you son. You threw a car down the drain.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • marzwoody
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-03-14
                                                          • 3902

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Sykes
                                                          This guy is either rich or has plenty of money. The picks are so 'all the favorites' for $590. 590 is nice money people can live off that shit ya know.
                                                          Yes 590$ is a lot of money. especially betting it on a big parlay, mostly made up of dumb unpredictable football matches. honestly that shit is ridiculous. not gonna act like some big dikk bandit over here.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • marzwoody
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-03-14
                                                            • 3902

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                            In order of best decisions to make:

                                                            1) Don't hedge, if you liked it when you placed it what changed? If you were going to hedge, you would've been better to leave it off completely.

                                                            2) Cormier +4.5 gives you a chance to hit a middle.

                                                            3) Cormier ML.

                                                            4) Anything else is retarded, can easily lose both.
                                                            This.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Sykes
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-23-12
                                                              • 2714

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by marzwoody
                                                              Yes 590$ is a lot of money. especially betting it on a big parlay, mostly made up of dumb unpredictable football matches. honestly that shit is ridiculous. not gonna act like some big dikk bandit over here.
                                                              Dude asked ofr advice on betting more than you can get for a weeks work, For more that you can go change your life with, go get a car, some mad nights out n shit. Comon. Kid.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Educ8d Degener8
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-12-10
                                                                • 3177

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                                I dunno what craic is, but I rarely do parlays.
                                                                You're missing out. Parlays are magic.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JIBBBY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                                  • 83693

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
                                                                  You're missing out. Parlays are magic.
                                                                  I think they are magic in MMA when the odds are slightly over your comfort zone for betting straight.. Other sports it's poorlays in my humble opinion for what ever it's worth.. Like Nunya says tease it instead with point spreads.....
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • NunyaBidness
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 07-26-09
                                                                    • 9345

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                                    Like Nunya says tease it instead with point spreads.....
                                                                    I dream of a day when Tony let's me tease MMA handicaps.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • brooks85
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 01-05-09
                                                                      • 44709

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by MD
                                                                      What a surprise, the guy who doesn't understand EV gives even more absolutely terrible advice about another topic which you clearly don't understand.

                                                                      Being a failed gambler is sad, but being a failed betpoint poker player is pathetic. Enjoy your life.
                                                                      lol idiot, how many times do you want to get embarrassed?

                                                                      you must have a very strong protective ego

                                                                      and thanks for admitting you have no idea how to hedge, that is a fact. Just like you completely made up a term, another FACT.

                                                                      Just like you will NEVER enter a contest that has even a shred of accountability. FACT





                                                                      Originally posted by brooks85
                                                                      Just like you will NEVER enter a contest that has even a shred of accountability. FACT

                                                                      oh and just like you won't address this for 10th time. FACT
                                                                      Last edited by brooks85; 01-04-15, 10:53 AM.
                                                                      Comment
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