Jibbby

[latarianmilton]

hey at least jibby post his plays and writes a little paragraph explaining them, he probably post the most picks in this forum also
but yea bisping is no lock

[Sacrelicious]

[JIBBBY]

hey at least jibby post his plays and writes a little paragraph explaining them, he probably post the most picks in this forum also
but yea bisping is no lock

Just got home from the concert.. 2am my time... Anyways I keyed in on this post before I crash for the night......

No fight is ever a solid lock in this sport and at the UFC level. This I agree with LATARIAN.... Betting against Phil Baroni in his last loss was about the most solid pick lock that I can remember to date that I played and felt like there is no way this clown will win......

Hey, Bisping could get clipped in the 1st round if he's not careful, but after that I just don't think the 42 year old juiced up Cung Lee will last.. Bisping I like to win this fight..

However, I think more of lock then even the win/lose bet would be "1004 - fight doesn't go the distance" (+100)

It's even money on this prop and I think Bisping either gets dropped early by chance or Cung Lee gases out and gets stopped before the final bell at round 5..

Just sharing.. I have not won yet consistently with the prop bets so take caution in trailing.. This one seems solid to me though.. I'm on it at even money...

5 rounds is a long time to go for the 35 and 42 year olds even if they are just trying to survive and make it to the final bell.. My thoughts anyways..

[Wilbo86]

Just got home from the concert.. 2am my time... Anyways I keyed in on this post before I crash for the night......

No fight is ever a solid lock in this sport and at the UFC level. This I agree with LATARIAN.... Betting against Phil Baroni in his last loss was about the most solid pick lock that I can remember to date that I played and felt like there is no way this clown will win......

Hey, Bisping could get clipped in the 1st round if he's not careful, but after that I just don't think the 42 year old juiced up Cung Lee will last.. Bisping I like to win this fight..

However, I think more of lock then even the win/lose bet would be "1004 - fight doesn't go the distance" (+100)

It's even money on this prop and I think Bisping either gets dropped early by chance or Cung Lee gases out and gets stopped before the final bell at round 5..

Just sharing.. I have not won yet consistently with the prop bets so take caution in trailing.. This one seems solid to me though.. I'm on it at even money...

5 rounds is a long time to go for the 35 and 42 year olds even if they are just trying to survive and make it to the final bell.. My thoughts anyways..

I actually completely agree with you on this one jibby.

Bisping le does not do to decision is a lock. And by that I mean i thinks its in the order of 65-70% implied lock. Also got a line at one of my books for fight to end by KO at much better odds, which will be the same diff.

[FightFightFight]

Todd -3, Rory +3.

Todd -8 and counting, and with only 42 holes to go, what could possibly go wrong!! Huge bet though, I wish he'd just fail now, so I could quit hoping.

[Rubber Guard]

locks, semi locks, flier locks, 60% locks, master lock, deathlock, Matlock, Jake Locker, Nessi

this why I can't become a real gambler. more complex than I had imagined.

[MD]

That Bendo and Carmont loss was surely shocking to see.. That was a damnn quick and slick arm bar I can't lie.. It happens.... Bendo may have been clipped and rocked a bit earlier but it seemed he was not prepared for that arm bar when he should have been... It looked like he tapped to me..

Ended up being a pretty much break even night for me after the very strong start as far as I can tell.. Disappointing to say the least...Still had a pretty good weekend overall though and I can't complain....

Live betting helped a bit tonight which also was encouraging, very excited about using that betting avenue once in a while in the future..

Check you fools for the next event.. Hopefully better results to come......

Something tells me, JIBBBY, that you didn't actually watch that Bendo fight and are lying about it.

I don't know what it is, but this is the vibe I get.

[marzwoody]

^ What do you mean MD? did you not watch the fight? Dos Anjos looked like a young Frank Mir in there.

[JIBBBY]

Something tells me, JIBBBY, that you didn't actually watch that Bendo fight and are lying about it.

I don't know what it is, but this is the vibe I get.

Refer to the event thread where I explained my reasoning MD.. Bendo took a few hard shots and knees prior to getting the fight to the ground where he then got sub'd... Bendo could have been scrabbled in the ole noodle.. Hense the quick sub.. IDK???

Lie is a lie, a misinterpretation of a fight is an opinion.. Thought you knew this MD?????

[MD]

Refer to the event thread where I explained my reasoning MD.. Bendo took a few hard shots and knees prior to getting the fight to the ground where he then got sub'd... Bendo could have been scrabbled in the ole noodle.. Hense the quick sub.. IDK???

Lie is a lie, a misinterpretation of a fight is an opinion.. Thought you knew this MD?????

Yeah, you're right. My bad.

[Bumdeal]

facepalm

[JIBBBY]

Trolling... Relax now... MD sorry to disappoint.. You thought you had discovered the Lost Ark of Noah or something.. LOL...

Down time laughter for Jibbby with MD.. He always trolls me and thought why not...

[MD]

Trolling... Relax now... MD sorry to disappoint.. You thought you had discovered the Lost Ark of Noah or something.. LOL...

Down time laughter for Jibbby with MD.. He always trolls me and thought why not...

I originally thought you were trolling, but now that you're denying it so vehemently in multiple threads, I'm not sure.

[Sacrelicious]

Bump.

[MD]

Yep..

Rosholt really got KTFO by "The Black Beast" as that fight was completely one sided right from the start.... He's gotten better since 2012 as well..
Easy way to win a 100 bucks on this card is to bet 160 on the Beast..

Good chance this win is gonna come by way of KO also... Don't think Meat can go 3 with the Beast.... #1233 - Lewis by KO/TKO -105...

Beast Interview, called out Meat Head for a reason prior to signing this fight... Why? because he knows he can win... - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-6Q_9VK8ws

Is this a "troll", too? Bava, what do you reckon?

[MD]

For those of you who haven't seen that fight, Lewis was getting f-cking trucked and varianced his way out, Rosholt win 80/100 at least. Forgot to mention that.

[marzwoody]

Nope pretty sure The Black Beast dominated. much like Dos Anjos did with that slick armbar.

[JIBBBY]

Are we having fun yet MD?

The SMART thing to do would be to take notes and not just troll my MMA posts.. Then again you are far too smart to be that smart right MD?

Hey, I'm glad you found a new friend online in Bava.. So cute... You must feel all warm and fuzzy inside now... You guys seem like a perfect fit together too.

Don't worry as you're still my favorite twit on this forum and there can only be one MD...

[MD]

Are we having fun yet MD?

The SMART thing to do would be to take notes and not just troll my MMA posts.. Then again you are far too smart to be that smart right MD?

Hey, I'm glad you found a new friend online in Bava.. So cute... You must feel all warm and fuzzy inside now... You guys seem like a perfect fit together too.

Don't worry as you're still my favorite twit on this forum and there can only be one MD...

JIBBBY, I haven't had much of a negative opinion of you as a person on SBR, but I'm really getting sick of pretending that you're "good peoples" when you lie your balls off day in and day out on this forum.

[JIBBBY]

JIBBBY, I haven't had much of a negative opinion of you as a person on SBR, but I'm really getting sick of pretending that you're "good peoples" when you lie your balls off day in and day out on this forum.

Aww MD don't be like that... Be a good sport..

Since I came on this forum all you've been doing is busting my balls..

I am good peoples but just not on this forum when twits like you, Nunya, Bava and Sac are ripping on me and making these BS Jibbby threads to seem cool when I'm not here to post in reply... Very cowardly...

I read all your posts when I was on vacation so don't think I didn't... They weren't kind...

I could get along with you MD if you toned it down and stopped attacking me and when you yourself act like GOOD PEOPLE.. Your call pal???....

PS... Your help gambling posts were insulting too me by the way.. I'm not changing a damn thing in my play.. If it isn't broke then don't fix it.. Last time I checked it ain't broke..

[MD]

Aww MD don't be like that... Be a good sport..

Since I came on this forum all you've been doing is busting my balls..

I am good peoples but just not on this forum when twits like you, Nunya, Bava and Sac are ripping on me and making these BS Jibbby threads to seem cool when I'm not here to post in reply... Very cowardly...

I read all your posts when I was on vacation so don't think I didn't... They weren't kind...

I could get along with you MD if you toned it down and stopped attacking me and when you yourself act like GOOD PEOPLE.. Your call pal???....

PS... Your help gambling posts were insulting too me by the way.. I'm not changing a damn thing in my play.. If it isn't broke then don't fix it.. Last time I checked it ain't broke..

Meanwhile, one page ago, in this very thread...

Ok MD help me.. I'm not defensive... Seriously.... I will listen to what ever you have to say and pay full attention with an open and humble mind..

This is my current system of play for MMA betting.... It's been VERY successful for me and consistent over the past 2 years.. Not lying ...

1) Capping - I cap each MMA fight to start off an event to arrive at straight win picks first. (witnessed on every event thread). I then consider value and then place.. I consider O/U round bets and props as I go after that.. I see trends, tendencies with fighters, strengths and weaknesses and apply that to betting. I've done really well with this over 2 years of play now.. How do I need help with that?

2) Structuring and balance - I defer to 2 and 3 team parlay bets mostly when the odds reach over -250 on strong plays that I think will win (this includes straight bets, O/U round bets and even Props). I structure parlay bets evenly and accordingly to protect bank roll. I understand bet structuring, bet balancing, protecting bank roll, and I consider each very carefully when placing... This has worked out pretty well for me over the last 2 years now How do I need help with that, how can I improve?

3) Prop bets - I first look for value and favorable odds with all.. I write them down and consider each for max value.. Envision how a fight should play out, a fighters strengths and weakness, trends and I will then play that prop accordingly to the ODDS being offered up if it makes sense.. Much like you guys do... I've played props for maybe 3 events now.. Broke even or maybe won a few bucks doing this.. I feel confident though in the future.. How can I improve with that, how can I learn?

* Intangibles - As you guys know I'm a firm believer in luck and or good fortune so to speak.... What goes around comes around.. This ties in with mental confidence, positive thinking, sharing, helping, giving to get in gambling so to speak.. I try to be generous, I try and be nice to others, I try and share in my personal life always, give to charities, look to help others whom are less fortunate.. This makes me feel good about myself, makes me like who I am, and in turn I think that helps with my overall gambling "LUCK" as crazy as that sounds.. I'm VERY lucky with the intangibles and always have been.. I've spoken about this before on this forum and got laughed at.. I can only speak for myself - Flip side - If I'm negative, selfish, angry, upset, the intangibles and good fortune will not swing in my favor... This has been going on for many many years... This is where streaky win play happens.... Running the table..

Fortune play - I play every (solid) fight pick, O/U round bet (solid) in a parlay bet for 5 bucks.. I do this every event.. Could end up being a 8-14 team parlay that can pay out 5-10 grand... I've hit that before.. Happens maybe once a year for me.. I contribute that to smart play and divine luck... A combination of the 2....

Now tell me what help do you think I need to learn with betting MMA and how I can improve my play?????? I'm fully open to suggestions? What am I missing?

1) Start thinking in terms of percentages. Play around with this a bit:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

If you type in a betting line, it'll convert it to a bunch of other things, including "implied probability". Basically, "implied probability" is the percentage chance of winning that a line represents. Your plays need to win at least a little bit more often than this number in order for them to be profitable. I'll give you an example.

A -300 line is a 3-1 favourite, meaning that they are expected to win 3 out of 4 times (3-1), or 75% (3/4 = 75%). If you expect this line to win more often than 75%, you have a bet. If you expect it to win as often or less often, it's a no-play. That's really all there is to it, there's no method as far as game selection. Just find spots where you think you have an edge, and bet accordingly.

If you bet this -300 line and you think it wins 80% of the time (we'll assume that you're right for this example), it's still going to lose 20% of the time. However, on average, every time you make this bet, you're going to turn a profit. This is what's called "expected value", or "EV".

Remember how I got on your ass about the "bet on who's going to win and ignore the odds" comment? I'll explain why.

Let's take a look at two lines. The first is TJ Dillashaw over Barao at +700 (in the first fight), the second is Bisping over Le -300. Now, hypothetically, let's say that you believe Dillashaw wins just 30% of the time, and that Bisping wins 70% of the time.

For the Dillashaw bet, 30% of the time you're going to win a +700 bet and get 7x your stake back, and 70% of the time you're going to lose your stake. For the Bisping fight, 70% of the time you're going to make 1/3rd of your stake, 30% of the time you're going to lose your stake. If you repeat these two bets 100 times (as we tend to, since there are a lot of cards), you'll make massive profit on average from the Dillashaw bet, and lose consistently on average from the Bisping bet.

I'll get to your other points in another post. Let me know if you want me to expand on anything or if there's anything I didn't explain well.

I need time to digest all this.. Thanks for sharing MD and I will get back to this thread after fully comprehending it all..

Yeah, what a c-nt I am for giving you advice that you asked for, said you'd take, and then didn't. So many insults in my post, too.

JIBBBY, I'm over wasting time on you. You don't listen; you don't want to listen. And that's fine. You keep JIBBBYing, I'll keep making snide remarks about posts of yours I find amusing. Life goes on.

[MD]

Also, I like how you didn't even address the fact that you lied about watching a fight.

[Bumdeal]

Did I imagine Lewis having great TDD and turning Rosholt away over and over? I guess I need to rewatch. I thought it was a close fight but Rosholt had no success with TDs.

[MD]

Did I imagine Lewis having great TDD and turning Rosholt away over and over? I guess I need to rewatch. I thought it was a close fight but Rosholt had no success with TDs.

Yes.

[JIBBBY]

Did I imagine Lewis having great TDD and turning Rosholt away over and over? I guess I need to rewatch. I thought it was a close fight but Rosholt had no success with TDs.

That's what I remember Bumdeal in the second round... 1st round Jarad did have the take downs and wrestling working for him.. This is Mitrione now and this is 2 years later with this upcoming fight.. Matt Mitrione doesn't have near the caliber of wrestling that Jarad has either..

I also remember Jarad getting blasted standing in that 2nd round after he was broken physically and mentally...

[MD]

Yeah, Rosholt just got stuffed over and over while Lewis mean-mugged him like a stud.

[Bava]

Is this a "troll", too? Bava, what do you reckon?

In the fifth grade, there was a kid named Simon who shit his pants in english class, and was relentlessly mocked the entire day. The next day, in the very same english class, he shit his pants again, to show everyone that it was all intentional and he was in on the joke. I remember not being concerned with whether he was telling the truth or not, but I did wonder why someone would purposely sit in a pile of his own stink all day. Do you know what a parable is, Jibbbs?

[Bava]

Are we having fun yet MD?

The SMART thing to do would be to take notes and not just troll my MMA posts.. Then again you are far too smart to be that smart right MD?

Hey, I'm glad you found a new friend online in Bava.. So cute... You must feel all warm and fuzzy inside now... You guys seem like a perfect fit together too.

Don't worry as you're still my favorite twit on this forum and there can only be one MD...

Oh boy, another parable!

When I was very young, I would often get pissed off at my parents, and tell them that I was going to run away. Then I would go and sit at the edge of my driveway, because I was an tiny witless idiot with no resources and nowhere else to go. So I'd be back in my house by dinner time.

Welcome back to the table, Fibbby. Supper is ready, so keep my name out of your mouth.

[MD]

JIBBBY on Arlovski's granite chin:

Just a thought - If Rumble couldn't knock him out do ya really think Big Foot Silva can???? That is the question one must ponder on........

[MD]

If Rumble couldn't knock out David Branch, do you really think Bigfoot Silva could?

[Vaughany]

If Rumble couldn't knock out David Branch, do you really think Bigfoot Silva could?

haha oh I just did this in the other thread!