UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Dos Anjos (August 23, 2014)

[Vaughany]

I see parallel's between the Pyle & Leites matches. Questions to be asked. #1 Does Pyle have the wrestling to take Mein down? If not. Who wins in the stand up between Pyle & Mein? Match #2 Does Leites have the wrestling to take down Carmont? Or vice versa? Who wins in the stand up between Leites & Carmont? Plays that I am considering at this point & time are the following: 5 units Carmont straight. 5 units Carmont via Decision. 5 units Mein straight. 2 units Mein via TKO. No plays have been made at this point. So still open to critique's.

If the Pyle that wrestlefuucked Hathaway turns up then absolutely he can take Mein down and fuuck him up

[firekillex]

id say the pyle fight is the underdog im most confident with
even at +275 i might go small on dos anjos i see him winning 30% of the time ,which would be worth a small wager at that value in my eyes, henderson is really overrated imo


ive been watching more tape on carmont and leites, this is still a lean for me i might actually change my mind and parlay carmont with another favorite, carmonts size may be to much for leites and he might just hold him up against the cage the whole fight and neutralize his attack, -140 is to steep for a fight that he still could lose, maybe match him up with bendo if you want less juice

[JIBBBY]

So if you think Bisping beats Cung Le, you would play him even if he was -400?

I would parlay him up, not bet it straight, look for under round bets or props instead.. Anything over -250 I never play straight up typically... It's just not worth the risk in my mind..

V I have a system of thinking and it works for me, I've proven that I win consistently event after event on this forum for a long while now. If it works it works.. I'm not just lucky as luck maybe lasts for 1-2 events and not dozens and dozens.....

[Keyboard Warrior]

i agree jibby, why bet someone -400 when you can bet them -150 by putting them in a parlay.

[NunyaBidness]

I like that when I Google "Clay Collard" google auto-suggests Clay Colored Stool

[MD]

I like that when I Google "Clay Collard" google auto-suggests Clay Colored Stool

Really? For me it suggests "Clay Collard nude male single".

[JIBBBY]

Seems like one of the better short read write ups circulating out there so far.... More to come...

Complete coverage of events, take what you want from it..

Gonna back off capping fights on event threads as I'm catching too much crap for them.. Good luck fellas...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2165450-ufc-fight-nights-48-and-49-a-complete-guide-to-the-cards

[imadegen]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

[firekillex]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

theyre not much better, i seen at like -200

[JIBBBY]

might parlay bisping and benson together.

My placed parlay plays - Just need to hit any of the 2 out of 3 parlays below to win money.. If Bisping loses I get ruined across the board.. Don't see that happening though..

I got Bisping, Benson as well in a 2 teamer... 260 to win 190...

Also got Woodley, Bisping in a 2 teamer.. That pays a bit better... 160 to win 200...

Also got a 3 teamer with Bisping, Coner McGregor, and TJ Dillashaw... 100 to win 220...

[Skel]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

[Vaughany]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

lol you must have terrible memory then

[Vaughany]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

lol you must have terrible memory then

[JIBBBY]

+120 Chas Skelly (11-1) vs -140 Tom Niikimaki (21-6-1)

A dog play that caught my attention capping fights last night and thought to share..

(Copy and Paste)

Whenever someone belongs to Team Takedown, you stand up and take notice. That's Johny Hendricks and Jared Rosholt territory. And it's Skelly's home base too, so you know his wrestling is solid. He's a rangy fighter too, which allows him to get good leverage on takedowns, in the clinch, on the mat or just in striking exchanges.
In April, he dropped his UFC debut to fellow prospect Mirsad Bektic but looked good in the effort. A similar sentiment goes for Niinimaki, who lost his second Octagon bout to Niklas Backstrom in May, running his record to 1-1.
Like Skelly, Niinimaki likes to fight in close, so this could be an extended clinch battle, or it could be a chess match on the ground, where these two have 14 submission wins between them. I'll give the slight edge to the longer, more athletic Skelly.
Prediction: Skelly, unanimous decision


My take.. Both of these guys are coming off a loss after extended winning streaks.. Both relatively new comers into the UFC.. I look at this fight and think sure Tom has the experience edge but like Skelly he's racked up alot of his wins over a bunch of no name fighters in lessor venues... Tom beating Roni Yanya by decision isn't anything special either..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tom-Niinimaki-5639

After watching both of their last fights I think Tom may have the speed advantage on the feet but I still gotta go with the wrestler and grinder with only 1 loss in Skelly in this one at +120... Decision out come is likely as well..

[firekillex]

lol you must have terrible memory then

lmao he finished the russian last fight by rear naked choke

but i dont really see him finishing dos anjos tbh
probably grind out another controversial decision

[Beelzebubzy]

My placed parlay plays - Just need to hit any of the 2 out of 3 parlays below to win money.. If Bisping loses I get ruined across the board.. Don't see that happening though..

I got Bisping, Benson as well in a 2 teamer... 260 to win 190...

Also got Woodley, Bisping in a 2 teamer.. That pays a bit better... 160 to win 200...

Also got a 3 teamer with Bisping, Coner McGregor, and TJ Dillashaw... 100 to win 220...

What is your day job?

[Dwil125]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

[JIBBBY]

Another dog I gotta play.. Just typing out my thoughts.. Read if ya want or don't...

Just a thought - Play both Chas Skelly and Walmir Lazaro even as straight dogs plays and at even money and you should win 1 of the 2 if not both. If ya lose one you will still win a few bucks at worst.. Or even better play in live time with Skelly first, you lose then double up on Lazaro next... Really don't think both of these guys will lose..

-150 James Vick (5-0) vs +130 Walmir Lazaro (12-2)

(copy and paste)

You have to give credence to Lazaro's resume. Though this is his first UFC contest, the Brazilian made his bones in the Jungle Fight and Shooto Brazil promotions and trains alongside some pretty heavy hitters at Nova Uniao. He's a heavy hitter himself; a knockout artist, pure and simple.
Vick is more well rounded and has a UFC win under his belt (over Ramsey Nijem, no less). Both men can and will scrap, but here's guessing Lazaro brings the brighter fireworks and pulls the mild upset.
Prediction: Lazaro, TKO, Rd. 1

My take -

Lazaro hasn't lost in 11 fights, (2010) He doesn't get sub'd out in recent fights and is Brazilian.. He's gotta have a decent sub defense game training with the guys he does...

James Vick will have a slight reach advantage and does seem to have a decent submission game but I don't think it matters in this match up.. James Vick is also undefeated at 5-0 but I never bank on just 5 pro fights.. After watching his last fight he looks dangerous.. Still, Lazaro is just knocking people out of the box in the last few years and fighting more often.. If he doesn't get the UFC jitters he should win..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Valmir-Lazaro-22216

At +130 larzaro has to be the call in this one and by KO...



I gotta fully agree with the Bleacher report write up on this fight above...

[JIBBBY]

This is another prediction report but from a betting source and not media source that I found worthy of posting...



Not sure about betting against Mike Pyle in this one though... He's a tough out... Still on the fence with that fight and that age difference is a concern like V said in an earlier post.... It's all about experience vs youth in this one, but both are equally skilled and explosive in their own styles.. Hard to call this one.... Maybe Mein or a no play for me????

[Ron_Paul_2012]

You don't have to say anything Wilbo..

Example - If the odds are +200 for a fighter that you think might hang but not win, I think ya still gotta go with the favorite.... Can't get blinded by those odds and take a shot and then lose...

OSP was a good example of that..

A lot of people who bet Dillashaw believed that Barao would probably win. However, those that bet Dillashaw seen tremendous value in huge + odds. You still have NOT learned much since joining SBR. Do you even know how to calculate % chance to win to + or - odds? MD will you show him how? I'm done responding to anything Jibster writes. I really am.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

might parlay bisping and benson together. wonder what odds are on henderson dos anjos goes the distance. cant remember last fight henderson finished.

He finished Khabilov in his last fight.

[JIBBBY]

A lot of people who bet Dillashaw believed that Barao would probably win. However, those that bet Dillashaw seen tremendous value in huge + odds. You still have NOT learned much since joining SBR. Do you even know how to calculate % chance to win to + or - odds? MD will you show him how? I'm done responding to anything Jibster writes. I really am.

I just try and pick a winner in every fight Ron and envision on how that fight might go that's it. Draw your own conclusions please..

Ron I'm gonna keep it real and I hope ya don't get upset.. I'm just being honest ok and going off memory..

I remember when I first came onto this forum you were one of the hottest gamblers for an event or 2 and I even gave you props at the time. (RON'S ON FIRE). Remember I posted that? I'm sure you do with the popcorn... I've never said that too anyone since... That was a sick run!!!!

I knew though that you were just an "emotional" streaky gambler when you said "I don't know what it is but when I train or work out I win bets".. Dime a dozen of those Ron.. I've seen them come and go and even end up in GA..

Sure enough shortly after the hot winning streak you started to lose regularly. I was paying attention too.. That's not a knock on you Ron but that's not gonna get it done over the long haul.. CONSISTENCY IS KEY in gambling!!! Read, read, and read more on fighters and their recent fights.. More info the better..

Alot of my posts and picks I intentionally defer to article reads first that I don't write. I just happen to agree with some of the write ups and I post them up and then expand on that.. Usually works out for me and that writer...

I crunch alot of info and data to arrive at my pics always.. I don't throw darts at a board sport because of favorable odds....
I hope you turn it around.. I like ya Ronny good luck in the future.....

[Sacrelicious]

Why is JIBBBY doing this to us.... ?

[JIBBBY]

Why is JIBBBY doing this to us.... ?

Don't read my posts. I'm not forcing anyone.. I'm cool with that..

I got a half a dozen PM's today that said they appreciated my posts, picks, breakdowns and want me to keep posting.. So I am.. I was going to stop!!!!

I responded to every PM I got today and told them I would continue to break down the event threads like I always do..

Thank you guys as you know who you are.. That was really cool and I didn't expect that..

[Vaughany]

This is another prediction report but from a betting source and not media source that I found worthy of posting...

http://mmabettingtips.com/betting-tips-picks-predictions-ufc-fight-night-49-dos-anjos-henderson/

Not sure about betting against Mike Pyle in this one though... He's a tough out... Still on the fence with that fight and that age difference is a concern like V said in an earlier post.... It's all about experience vs youth in this one, but both are equally skilled and explosive in their own styles.. Hard to call this one.... Maybe Mein or a no play for me????

Would be other way round for me...Pyle or no play. Pyle by decision at +445 currently stands out as best value

[JIBBBY]

Would be other way round for me...Pyle or no play. Pyle by decision at +445 currently stands out as best value

I saw that prop.. It's at +540 now.. Not a bad play at all. Absolutely Pyle could win this fight and by decision.. He typically hasn't lost any fights by decision in the recent past anyways....

Pyle is a tough well rounded veteran for sure.. Pyle's chin though makes me a little nervous.. We've seen him get dropped before by Matt Brown and Rory MacDonald.. With that being said I don't thing Mein is at the same striking level as those two..

[PunisherIND]

pyle dec is +540 now. i dont like it though. i'm on the under.

[Vaughany]

I saw that prop.. It's at +540 now.. Not a bad play at all. Absolutely Pyle could win this fight and by decision.. He typically hasn't lost any fights by decision in the recent past anyways....

Pyle is a tough well rounded veteran for sure.. Pyle's chin though makes me a little nervous.. We've seen him get dropped before by Matt Brown and Rory MacDonald.. With that being said I don't thing Mein is at the same striking level as those two..

pyle dec is +540 now. i dont like it though. i'm on the under.

Yee too many question marks about pyle's chin and ability/desire to implement a game plan to know whether there really is value or not in tht line.

[Crassus]

Mean ITD at +105 looks not too bad to me. I saw Pyle live in Boston in that shameful fight against Brown.

[PunisherIND]

Alex garcia wins in round one +325

odds of winning go down drastically after round one, imo.

[Vaughany]

Mean ITD at +105 looks not too bad to me. I saw Pyle live in Boston in that shameful fight against Brown.

yes, it's the obvious play

[Ron_Paul_2012]

yes, it's the obvious play

Really? Mein is NOT going to submit Pyle. Mein TKO +135 is the play.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Alex garcia wins in round one +325

odds of winning go down drastically after round one, imo.

[Bumdeal]

i agree

[Bumdeal]

Everyone on Pyle, I took Mein as soon as the odds came out